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Author Topic: Brexit - shifting sands ?  (Read 19346 times)

Manoli

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Brexit - shifting sands ?
« on: July 16, 2018, 02:53:18 am »

They would have been more constructive protesting against Brexit
No, that would have been just as futile.

Always amused when I see the indelible footprint of the Leave side so adamantly asserting that any 'protest'  is an exercise in futility.

As yet another MP and former cabinet minister, writing in The Times today, lends her support for a second referendum, it has become blindingly obvious that parliament will never reach a consensus. With the likelihood of rubber stamping any divorce agreement less and less feasible this question will, ultimately, be put to the people by way of a General Election - as it should have been from the outset.

As the FT recently reported - though Mr Corbyn himself is a closet Leaver, his Party isn't and his support base has shifted.

First, Momentum is facing an upswelling of anti-Brexit sentiment among its membership of largely younger, more urban, supporters. Its leading figures say they could force a vote among delegates at the September conference on whether there should be a “people’s vote” on the final Brexit deal.
Second, ahead of its conference this week, a poll of Unite members showed that 57 per cent supported a referendum on any divorce agreement. That desire for a second plebiscite looks set to get more formal union backing.
Third, there is the general mindset of Labour voters who are increasingly against Brexit. The latest YouGov poll tracker has those saying it is right to leave the EU on 21 per cent, and wrong to leave on 72 per cent.

In the final analysis, which way will Corbyn swing? With Downing Street the prize at the end of the tunnel, your guess should be as good as mine. What I'm not so sure about is whether Donald Trump will be as keen to hold Corbyn's hand as he is Theresa May's - either way, a Trump/Corbyn love-fest should prove 'entertaining'.

Justine Greening, july 16 2018
Quote
< Give the British people the final decision on Brexit >

I wanted the prime minister’s Chequers agreement to be a workable compromise. It is clear it is not. Leavers are right. Having read the detail, this deal is a fudge I can’t support. It’s the worst of both worlds. In places such as Rotherham, where I grew up, 68 per cent of people voted to Leave and I understand why. My friends and family were voting for long overdue change, but this deal won’t deliver that.

We’ll be dragging Remain voters out of the EU for a deal that means still complying with many EU rules, but now with no say on shaping them. It’s not what they want, and on top of that when they hear that Leave voters are unhappy, they ask, “What’s the point?” For Leavers, this deal simply does not deliver the proper break from the European Union that they wanted.

Parliament is stuck in a stalemate that risks a no-confidence vote and, worse, a Corbyn government, which would be disastrous for the economy. Yet Labour is just as divided on Brexit as the Conservative Party, because Brexit is an issue that cuts across traditional party lines.

Even with a free vote on the final deal in parliament, it still means that in every constituency — mine was mainly Remain — there will inevitably be people disenfranchised by their MP’s vote, despite Brexit shaping all our lives for decades to come. That’s unacceptable. The only solution is to take the final Brexit decision out of the hands of deadlocked politicians, away from the backroom deals, and give it back to the people.

This shouldn’t be a divisive, binary choice. Two years on, the practical Brexit options are now clear and the public should be asked to choose between the three paths facing our country: the PM’s final negotiated Brexit deal, staying in the EU, or a clean Brexit break and leaving with no deal. Crucially, the referendum should give the public a first and second preference vote, allowing a consensus finally to be found.

This is exactly how we deliver elected mayors across the country, who can command a consensus. It can work, it’s fair and it will finally deliver a clear voting majority on the way forward, a unique chance to settle the European question for a generation.

Whatever the path chosen by the British people, this great country of ours will always have the capacity to succeed, that is as much about unlocking everyone’s talents as anything else. It’s about delivering social mobility. But on Brexit, it’s clear we have a parliament in stalemate that can’t deliver a clear choice for the future. So it’s time to let the British public do it instead.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/give-the-british-people-the-final-decision-on-brexit-c35f98g89
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 04:13:03 am by Manoli »
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Farmer

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2018, 03:09:20 am »

There were always two fundamental problems with Brexit and the plebiscite:

1. Most of those who were in favour weren't going to have to deal with the consequences as long as most of the people who weren't in favour, and that was inherently unfair.

2. Those in favour never presented a viable plan as to how to do it, and still haven't.

All the other issues of politicians telling porkies and so on is just on top of those basic two problems which have brought us to the current, stalled non-process.
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Phil Brown

Rob C

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2018, 04:13:58 am »

There are several problems with going it alone, not least that we would be tossing out our closest and largest customer. Any company doing that, or proposing to do that, would face a shareholder revolt and remove the head of its CEO in very short time.

For all the screams of Britishness etc, the reality is that the country depends on trade to pay everybody's bills, not accent.

Expecting to resign from the club yet retain all the perks, is like leaving the company yet expecting to retain your parking space in their lot.

As for the power in being a small, independent: the less muscle the sooner you crumble.

Manoli

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2018, 05:18:08 am »

For all the screams of Britishness etc, the reality is that the country depends on trade to pay everybody's bills, not accent.

If ever a picture was worth more than a thousand words, Rob, I think the chart below makes your point.



In over 70 years of the last century, Britain has never managed such a prolonged or record period of prosperity as it has since EEC membership. The notion that we'll be 'more nimble and free to strike our own trade deals unencumbered by the shackles of the EU'  is absurd.
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2018, 08:03:29 am »

Always amused when I see the indelible footprint of the Leave side so adamantly asserting that any 'protest'  is an exercise in futility.

If by that you intend to imply that you know what my views on Brexit are, you simply do not know and should not presume to think that you do.

Jeremy
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2018, 09:06:05 am »

The Bexit is both a wonderful example of a country listening to its citizens and a dreadul demonstration that unfiltered democracy further encourages politicians to lie to the public to push their agenda in totally shameful ways.

The ultimate question is how we want to inspire our kids to lead tomorrow’s world.

Cheers,
Bernard

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2018, 10:05:09 am »

The Bexit is both a wonderful example of a country listening to its citizens and a dreadul demonstration that unfiltered democracy further encourages politicians to lie to the public to push their agenda in totally shameful ways.

The ultimate question is how we want to inspire our kids to lead tomorrow’s world.

Cheers,
Bernard

What I found odd about that entire exercise was that the approach taken by the leadership was one of partisan propaganda, as if it was just some normal election campaign. With a fundamental decision about a country's direction, I would want serious discussion from the various campaigners, not the usual sound bite nonsense. Actually, I would want access to people who did not have an axe to grind. But everything is so polarized now that the concept of national interest doesn't seem to have much meaning anymore. It's all about winning some horse race.
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Robert

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2018, 10:11:39 am »

... 1. Most of those who were in favour weren't going to have to deal with the consequences as long as most of the people who weren't in favour, and that was inherently unfair...

Life is inherently unfair.

Are you suggesting that only young people should have the right to vote?

Rob C

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2018, 11:17:35 am »

There never was a chance that there would be fair and even-handed discussion across the nation. There is simply no national forum to permit holding that debate; the closest would be a television programme, where the usual suspects would be invited in to provide their usual performance and repeat their customary mantras, totally predictable, and exactly why they were brought in to provide "balance".

What we have is the press, which rather than open debate pumps out propaganda, and as Mr Murdoch is so powerful in the media and readership not always too bright, you can guess where things are going to go. 

Mr M lost a big newspaper through the unlawful tapping of private telephones, because the resulting fracas and enquiry ended in the paper closing down and employee heads rolling. Payback time came, I think, in the form of a reciprocal attack on the government at the first major opportunity. Guess where the papers in the M fold headed their support... Too much power in too few hands is a dangerous thing, and I think the controls set up are perhaps less than rigorous in dealing with such situations. You have the same situation coming into play again in financial circles, where controls are being eased away, bit by bit, until we are slap bang ready for the next crash, just as if 2008 had never happened, it's warnings never expressed.

Farmer

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2018, 05:52:39 pm »

Life is inherently unfair.

Are you suggesting that only young people should have the right to vote?

Nope.  You're right, that's the way of things.  But that was still one of the fundamental issues.
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Phil Brown

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2018, 10:32:04 pm »

As we watch season 3 of The Tunnel I wonder what happens with Brexit.  Do they shut the tunnel down or endure excruciatingly long lines for passport control?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2018, 10:47:41 pm »

America's willing to help out our friends the Brits.  But they'll have to be able to deal with us bilaterally.  If they make a deal with the EU that disallows that, I don;t know how we could help then. 

Rob C

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2018, 04:16:03 am »

America's willing to help out our friends the Brits.  But they'll have to be able to deal with us bilaterally.  If they make a deal with the EU that disallows that, I don;t know how we could help then.


Now that's disrespectful. Why "help" when the problem is about trade, not some charity.

With the way the current US leaders conduct trade, it looks more like coercion and extortion than any sort of trade. If you don't come out on top, you throw sanctions.

Coming out on top is not what trade is supposed to be about: trade is supposed to be about mutual and fair exchanges of value. You can't ever achieve that when you prefer to use muscle over mutual exchanges of equal value. You create distortion by decree and sanctions, and not by the simple process of party A wanting to buy something from B, but party A being unable to produce anything much that B wants to buy from him in return. Hence, exchanges can be one-sided for all sorts of realistic and natural reasons. Dumping is something quite else.

The way existing agreements are being dismantled offers little sense of security any state may feel in striking a new agreement with the current version of US power.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 04:19:40 am by Rob C »
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2018, 04:27:41 am »

The Electoral Commission has now confirmed that there was cheating by the Leave campaign & have handed the matter over to the police - criminal prosecutions could ensue (fingers crossed). It seems that those refusing a second referendum have to now decide whether they are on the side not of Leave or Remain, but democracy or not.

kers

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2018, 04:41:02 am »

I still don't understand that such an important decision as leaving the EU could be made with 50% + 1 vote...
It should have been 66.66 % in favor to let it go through.
The almost 50-50 is part of the problems the UK is going through at the moment, whie Nigel farage is content that he produced chaos.
The only thing he can produce it seems.
I am afraid the UK will hurt itself badly.
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Pieter Kers
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Farmer

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2018, 05:01:03 am »

As we watch season 3 of The Tunnel I wonder what happens with Brexit.  Do they shut the tunnel down or endure excruciatingly long lines for passport control?

Such a good show and season 3 is a cracker!
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Phil Brown

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2018, 05:12:31 am »

I still don't understand that such an important decision as leaving the EU could be made with 50% + 1 vote...
It should have been 66.66 % in favor to let it go through.

The thing is, UK referenda are advisory only. The wording of the Bill is quite clear - Parliament cannot be bound by a referendum because Parliament is sovereign. Unfortunately, our PM at the time was particularly weak & incompetent & in hock to the right-wing xenophobes in his party (so no change there then) and promised that he would enact the 'will of the people' and honour the result, come what may. A bloody silly and irresponsible thing to do, but then he was a bloody silly & irresponsible man.

Rob C

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?"
« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2018, 07:51:57 am »

To make it worse, the lady has accepted four further dilutions of the "new proposals" for harmonious Brexit in order to keep her lunatic right silent or, at best, from unseating her.

My natural party-of-emotion embarrasses me these days.

A difficult time to be British.

:-(

Rob C

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?
« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2018, 07:56:57 am »

I still don't understand that such an important decision as leaving the EU could be made with 50% + 1 vote...
It should have been 66.66 % in favor to let it go through.
The almost 50-50 is part of the problems the UK is going through at the moment, whie Nigel farage is content that he produced chaos.
The only thing he can produce it seems.
I am afraid the UK will hurt itself badly.


To hear those who want to leave tell it, the 16 million voters who wanted that are made out to appear as a 16 million majority above those who preferred the status quo, not as a total number. All in the telling...

mbaginy

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Re: Brexit - shifting sands ?"
« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2018, 08:54:11 am »

A difficult time to be British.
Understandable, Rob.  And being American ain't easy either.  I'm damned embarrassed.
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