Nikon’s new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018

[BernardLanguillier]

Bernard, you clearly win on measuring from that photo; can I claim a tie for 55mm falling between my too low estimates and your earlier too high ones?!

Yes, let's call it a tie.

A few random thoughts:
- The PCIe-based XQD seems to have won over the SATA-based CFast; the next generation CFexpress is essentially an evolution of XQD, with compatibility possible through firmware upgrades.

- I like Nikon's lens approach. It is clearly impractical to launch a full range of high quality lenses in a new mount and instantly please every category of user, so it seems wise to initially target those who care a bit more about about a reasonably light hand-holdable kit over maximum possible speed — and then have an adaptor and a solid road map with the classic f/2.8 zooms and some fast primes. And with the very high usable ISO speeds these days, I am a fan of the idea of mid-speed f/4 zoom lenses that exploit the higher minimum f-stop to be excellently corrected.

- As I said before, the fact that Canon's late arriving EOS-M system with limited native lens options is the best selling APS-C mirrorless system (in Japan at least) shows the market clout of factors like a brands overall reputation, user base and extensive retail presence, along with lots of good first party SLR lenses already in customers' hands and usable with a first party adapter can count for a lot. So I would not rule out Nikon Z competing very well against Sony E.

P. S. Folks, please update my inaccurate original subject line!

I am overall pretty optimistic also.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Christopher Sanderson]

...  update my inaccurate original subject line!

You can modify your original post - including the subject. 

[BernardLanguillier]

Absorb the costs of bundling an adapter ? You mean build the cost into the sale of every camera to accommodate the maybe 1 in 10 purchasers who want one. That'll never happen.

In fact they do that to an extend. There is an official Nikon kit bundling the adapter that ends up being 50% discounted.

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

I wondering why I find these appealing then... and so did 3 other actual buyers here also. The only person who has commented otherwise so far is you who is clearly not a potential buyer.

Which is clearly representative of the bulk of customers - the key markets of wedding/event photographers in particular.

If this thread - or even this forum - were representative, then Canon wouldn't exist as a camera company.

As far as I know, your comments are purely theoretical since no MTF charts have been published. I have never caught Nikon lying about the level of performance of their optics. It is the first time they speak with such confidence about a lens, I am 100% sure it is going to be amazing.

All I've seen from Nikon so far is a big pile of marketing-speak. Nikon, Canon and Sony all say the same things every single time they release a body or lens, whether it's a 400/2.8 or a Canon Rebel. And, every single time, it's worth ignoring, until the technical data and tests come out.

Overall, most of your Nikon Z forecast have proven wrong and mine have proven right. The odds seem pretty high that the track record extends to lenses too... 

Show me a list. I have my list in front of me. And make a clear distinction between predictions ('this will happen') and possibilities ('Nikon could do this') and conditionals ('if X is true, then Nikon could do this'). With no ability to see the future, you need a range of possibilities, almost like a flow-chart. I write all three, and you obviously fail to see the difference.

[elliot_n]

This is a strange time as a Nikon owner. Is this the beginning of the end of the F mount?  I was surprised to see in their roadmap of the future, a 20mm 1.8 prime Z mount.  They just recently came out with the F mount version.  Other than for long telephoto lenses why would Nikon ever make another F mount lens?  Is the D850 the last of the pro DSLR?  Then again can they really survive in the mirrorless market?

I share your concerns. I'm still shooting with a D800 — whilst I was tempted by the D850, I figured that the upgrade from 36 to 45 megapixels wouldn't register in prints. I planned to wait for the next incarnation of the Nikon DSLR, but perhaps there won't be one?

[Kirk_C]

In fact they do that to an extend. There is an official Nikon kit bundling the adapter that ends up being 50% discounted.

Selling something at cost or minimal profit is not Nikon absorbing the cost as the poster I was replying to suggested they could do.

And it's natural that they will offer a relatively inexpensive path for the long term user that also supports the used market value of their legacy products.

[shadowblade]

With non-phone cameras losing popularity contest, they aim for the luxury market. The proverbial dentists and lawyers.

Will Nikon be the first to recognize that there is a niche of serious photographers at the high end of the market out there who will pay MORE for a slower prime or zoom if it is smaller and lighter AND the quality matches the price?

+1

+2

This may be the start of Nikon turning into Leica - competing primarily for the niche, wealthy hobbyist market rather than delivering the products demanded for commercial use. A 58/0.95, USD6000, manual focus lens is the tool of a rich, creative hobbyist, not that of a working pro. They may correct this in the future with further lens releases and more suitable bodies (Dual. Card. Slots.), but, right now, there is no reason for any user relying on their cameras for income not to either stick with Nikon SLR for another generation or two (until their current lens lineup is obsolete) or to move to Sony mirrorless instead.

As it stands, if you already shoot Nikon and have F-mount lenses, then D850/D5 are better than the new cameras in most respects. If you don't already shoot Nikon, there's no reason to go for the system with one card slot and three relatively-slow lenses over the system with dual card slots on all their latest bodies and a large collection of available lenses, both first- and third-party, including compact ones if you want them.

Yes, image quality is the core value here and I believe that you are totally correct in your understanding of the direction Nikon is taking.

The DSLR series of f1.8 Nikon lenses is already outstanding and it appears that the S line is even better.

There are probably going to be super compact lenses added later that may not belong to the S series, but for now all the lenses announced do. This says a lot about the focus of Nikon and they can be trusted on this!

Cheers,
Bernard

Apart from a page of Nikon hyperboles and marketing-speak, what evidence do you have of any of this? Image quality is everyone's core goal, not just Nikon's. Zeiss/Canon/Sony/Sigma have all delivered lenses just as good as Nikon's - each one wins in a different category, at a different point in time. You mightn't be able to match Nikon's 70-200/2.8, but you also can't match Sony's 100-400, Sigma's cheap-but-super-sharp primes or Canon's lineup of tilt-shifts.

Nikon can be trusted? No more than anyone else - not after they abandoned their Nikon 1 lineup and DL series cameras.

[eronald]

Is there actually a difference between the hi-rez Nikon and a Sony A7R3 wrapped in black rubber with a red stripe?

With drop-in all-digital sensors most of the image quality comes from the sensor. This leaves the signature tone and color mapping for Jpegs and of course the all-important AF algorithms to vary from one Sony customer to another - Sony being of course its own customer.

This is Sony image quality with a Nikon lens mount and Nikon ergonomics. A winning combo for customers, but as far as variability goes, the market has just got smaller again, there is almost no breeding pool left.

Edmund

[BernardLanguillier]

As it stands, if you already shoot Nikon and have F-mount lenses, then D850/D5 are better than the new cameras in most respects.

How about taking into account the opinion of people who actually use these cameras? Or do also know better than us?

Cheers,
Bernard

[elliot_n]

Is it enough to make a plausible copy of the camera made by the manufacturer of your sensors?

[BernardLanguillier]

Is there actually a difference between the hi-rez Nikon and a Sony A7R3 wrapped in black rubber with a red stripe?

With drop-in all-digital sensors most of the image quality comes from the sensor. This leaves the signature tone and color mapping for Jpegs and of course the all-important AF algorithms to vary from one Sony customer to another - Sony being of course its own customer.

There are a few noticeable differences:
- the opportunity to lose images thanks to the lack of dual memory slot
- the ability to use F lenses at near native performance level
- a much larger lens mount that seems more future proof (similar to what Canon EOS has been offering over Nikon F)
- different ergonomics (that may end up being a matter of taste)
- different sensors, although Sony probably manufactures the D850/Z7 sensors, it is pretty different in ISO range, noise behavior and color filtration
- IBIS that seems to work for still and video, helped by the larger mount
- different AF algos indeed with a major impact on still and video shooting

Cheers,
Bernard

[BernardLanguillier]

Is it enough to make a plausible copy of the camera made by the manufacturer of your sensors?

The manufacturer of a sensor is not that important really. There are many fabs out there.

Now, this raises the question. How can mirrorless cameras differ from each others?

Have all the SLRs been copies of the original Nikon F?

How do we expect the upcoming Canon mirrorless to differ from these 2?

Either they are identical from a distance (like all cars are the same), or you decide to look at the details and then they start to look pretty different (and people pay 10 times the price for an Audi compared to a Tata... although all the basic functions are identical).

Cheers,
Bernard

[gkroeger]

There are a few noticeable differences:
- the opportunity to lose images thanks to the lack of dual memory slot
- the ability to use F lenses at near native performance level
- a much larger lens mount that seems more future proof (similar to what Canon EOS has been offering over Nikon F)
- different ergonomics (that may end up being a matter of taste)
- different sensors, although Sony probably manufactures the D850/Z7 sensors, it is pretty different in ISO range, noise behavior and color filtration
- IBIS that seems to work for still and video, helped by the larger mount
- different AF algos indeed with a major impact on still and video shooting

Cheers,
Bernard

Add to that lossless compression of unadulterated raw files.

[shadowblade]

How about taking into account the opinion of people who actually use these cameras? Or do also know better than us?

How about giving a list of points showing exactly why moving to Z-mount would be better than just staying with D850/D5 for now, or moving to E-mount instead, instead of basically saying, 'just trust me'?

Almost every task the Z6/Z7 can accomplish, one out of the D850, D5, A7III, A7r3 or A9 seem to do better.

[BernardLanguillier]

Almost every task the Z6/Z7 can accomplish, one out of the D850, D5, A7III, A7r3 or A9 seem to do better.

Very true statement for a change, but I don't walk around with these 5 bodies. And I believe that you have here the answer to your own question.

One factor you may want to consider really is that once you have demonstrated your inability to acknowledge your past mistakes, there is very little incentive in continuing to discuss with you.

But ok... one last time, the advantages of the Z7 over the D850: 
- all the advantages of mirrorless cameras that you have been hammering on us when promoting the a7rIII over the D850 in Nikon threads:
- smaller, lighter
- IBIS
- wider focus area
- more accurate AF using lenses wide open
- the advantages of EVFs (preview of actual shooting conditions, better at low light levels,...)
- much better video and live view AF

some specific Z7 advantages resulting from Nikon's implementation:
- access to unique lenses not possible until now and to lenses of overall higher image quality
- better video specs
- direct access to user settings
- multi-role top LCD
- better touch screen usage
- better and more usable silent shooting
- slightly faster shooting sequences

The non inconvenients compared to what I would experience with a Sony a7rIII
- remain weather sealed
- maintains great compatibilty with F lenses
- has similar ergonomics
- still best in class auto-ISO capability
- still true 14bits lossless raw

And now, the disatvantages compared to my D850:
- lack of double memory slot
- one less direct UI dial
- worse battery life (probably not as bad as the standard figures tell, but still)
- possibly a slight reduction of AF speed for F mount lenses
- worse buffer
- the fun factor of shooting with an OVF

Now, it would have been incredibly refreshing to have you listing these instead or me, but I guess that was expecting too much.

As far as I am concerned, I will probably try the Z7, shoot with it for a few months in parallel to the D850 and decide if I keep it or not (and if I sell the D850 or not). This is really the only way to get to know a camera and I don't like to talk about things I don't know well... Shooting meaning take actual photographs btw. I don't know whether it is something you still do, I haven't seen you post any images for a long time.



Cheers,
Bernard

[SrMi]

There are a few noticeable differences:
- the opportunity to lose images thanks to the lack of dual memory slot
- the ability to use F lenses at near native performance level
- a much larger lens mount that seems more future proof (similar to what Canon EOS has been offering over Nikon F)
- different ergonomics (that may end up being a matter of taste)
- different sensors, although Sony probably manufactures the D850/Z7 sensors, it is pretty different in ISO range, noise behavior and color filtration
- IBIS that seems to work for still and video, helped by the larger mount
- different AF algos indeed with a major impact on still and video shooting

Cheers,
Bernard

Sony A7rIII is essentially a one card system with a built-in spare SD card holder :-) ... it is so unusable.
Focus bracketing, multiple exposures are for some people very important features, found only on Nikon.
On the other hand, I think people obsess too much about cameras and sensors and neglect the lenses (availability and quality). New Z mount looks promising.
 

[BJL]

Almost every task the Z6/Z7 can accomplish, one out of the D850, D5, A7III, A7r3 or A9 seem to do better.

That only seems relevant if owning all five of those cameras — and carrying several of them in some situations — is a preferable alternative. [Management consultant hat on] Market viability often relates to Pareto-optimality: roughly, having a better balance of pros over cons compared to each single alternative for the priority weightings of a sufficient number of potential customers.

[eronald]

How about giving a list of points showing exactly why moving to Z-mount would be better than just staying with D850/D5 for now, or moving to E-mount instead, instead of basically saying, 'just trust me'?

Almost every task the Z6/Z7 can accomplish, one out of the D850, D5, A7III, A7r3 or A9 seem to do better.

Nikon have done what the Japanese do perfectly - miniaturised the existing product with no loss in performance. So if you want a smaller D850 body, just buy a Z7. If you have a D850, and like it, keep it. I don't think there will be any perceptible image quality difference for another year or so, at which point Nikon will put the existing F mount lens range on life support, and you will need to move to Z to get the latest and greatest lenses, and standard zooms for the next generation of 60MP cameras.

Edmund

[hcubell]

This may be the start of Nikon turning into Leica - competing primarily for the niche, wealthy hobbyist market rather than delivering the products demanded for commercial use. A 58/0.95, USD6000, manual focus lens is the tool of a rich, creative hobbyist, not that of a working pro. They may correct this in the future with further lens releases and more suitable bodies (Dual. Card. Slots.), but, right now, there is no reason for any user relying on their cameras for income not to either stick with Nikon SLR for another generation or two (until their current lens lineup is obsolete) or to move to Sony mirrorless instead.

Nikon turning into Leica? That's hyperbole. Nikon doesn't make cameras that are affectations. As for where the market is for high end camera systems these days, I would love to know how many A7RIIIs are sold to so-called pros using them in the pro market versus prosumers or more serious hobbyists. Same with the Nikon D850. Or the Canon 5DIV. The big market is with the prosumer and serious hobbyists, not the so-called pros. The latter don't spend money based upon the availability of disposable income. They are smart and approach the decision on buying new equipment in a hard headed way and only buy what they actually NEED, not what they want. It's just a matter of time until the infatuation with the bokeh nonsense from fast lenses peters out and camera companies start to recognize that the whole market for everything is moving toward smaller and lighter. It doesn't matter whether we are talking about skis,  cameras or backpacks. I personally stop down to f/11 or f/16 almost always to achieve adequate depth of field. Why do I want to carry around an f/1.4 lens that is three times the size and weight? It's insane. Moreover, the latest cameras have amazing high ISO performance. It's 2018. We aren't shooting Kodachrome at ASA 25 anymore. The real world advantages of an f/1.4 lens over an f/1.8 lens are so irrelevant once you get over the infatuation with blurred backgrounds. If Nikon were to offer an 35mm f/1.8 lens with drop dead optical performance that was the same price as an f/1.4 lens that couldn't match the optical performance of the f/1.8 lens and the f/1.4 lens was twice the size and weight of the f/1.8 lens, I believe the f/1.8 lens would vastly outsell the f/1.4 lens.
I actually own a Sony A7RII. to me, it's an electronic toy designed and engineered by an electronics company. I haven't handled a Z7 yet, but my expectation is that the experience of using it will be far more satisfying. 

[D Fuller]

Nikon turning into Leica? That's hyperbole. Nikon doesn't make cameras that are affectations. As for where the market is for high end camera systems these days, I would love to know how many A7RIIIs are sold to so-called pros using them in the pro market versus prosumers or more serious hobbyists. Same with the Nikon D850. Or the Canon 5DIV. The big market is with the prosumer and serious hobbyists, not the so-called pros. The latter don't spend money based upon the availability of disposable income. They are smart and approach the decision on buying new equipment in a hard headed way and only buy what they actually NEED, not what they want. It's just a matter of time until the infatuation with the bokeh nonsense from fast lenses peters out and camera companies start to recognize that the whole market for everything is moving toward smaller and lighter. It doesn't matter whether we are talking about skis,  cameras or backpacks. I personally stop down to f/11 or f/16 almost always to achieve adequate depth of field. Why do I want to carry around an f/1.4 lens that is three times the size and weight? It's insane. Moreover, the latest cameras have amazing high ISO performance. It's 2018. We aren't shooting Kodachrome at ASA 25 anymore. The real world advantages of an f/1.4 lens over an f/1.8 lens are so irrelevant once you get over the infatuation with blurred backgrounds. If Nikon were to offer an 35mm f/1.8 lens with drop dead optical performance that was the same price as an f/1.4 lens that couldn't match the optical performance of the f/1.8 lens and the f/1.4 lens was twice the size and weight of the f/1.8 lens, I believe the f/1.8 lens would vastly outsell the f/1.4 lens.
I actually own a Sony A7RII. to me, it's an electronic toy designed and engineered by an electronics company. I haven't handled a Z7 yet, but my expectation is that the experience of using it will be far more satisfying.

+1