Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[Jonathan Cross]

This contribution is mainly addressed to Alan Klein.  I hope that I am not considered patronising.  Alan, you have written several contributions to this thread, and sometimes used the words, ‘I don’t understand.’  Can I give some comments on how the UK is tackling the issue of the pandemic and the economy. Although there are differences between our two countries there are parallels, I believe.

Can I start with some assumptions.
1.   Society wants the pandemic to be time limited.
2.   Currently there is no vaccine that is known to be effective and with no dire side effects.
3.   The virus spreads through human interaction.
4.   Comparisons have been made to seasonal flu. I think it would be fair to say that society does not want to see extra deaths, nor more people becoming ill and stopping being fully functioning members of society while ill.
5.   Society does not want the health system in their country to become overwhelmed and unable to cope.  This could be caused by either or both of too many patients and/or staff becoming ill and would affect all with health issues not just Covid-19.
6.   To reduce the spread of the virus, human interaction has to be reduced.  People cannot be relied on to do this voluntarily, so Governments have to take action.
7.   Reduction in human interaction has a negative effect on the economy.

The dilemma is what governments do about reducing the negative effects on the economy and getting it up and running as soon as possible.  In the UK the thinking has been roughly along these lines.

Do nothing and people will become unemployed and the number of claimants will rise, probably by a large number. Money will have to found.  When it becomes time to get the economy going by relaxing restrictions, it will be a question of how quickly it can recover.  If nothing is done and the money is found for the increased benefits bill, then it is thought many companies will have ceased trading.  This will obviously have an effect on the economic recovery and extend the time extra benefit payments are made.  An alternative is to give financial help to employers, employees, and the self-employed for companies and business to stay afloat and to cut the benefits bill.  With fewer companies going broke and keeping staff on the books the economy should recover quicker.  It will also mean that people will have more money in their pockets as they are not unemployed so buying will start more quickly.  It is then a question of how much extra the Government has to find over the projected increased benefit bill and is it worth it to get the country back on its feet.  The UK Government thinks it is, and judging by the public reaction, they think it is as well.  The extra money will be found by extra borrowing, but borrowing costs are low currently.

As I wrote above, I do think that there are sufficient parallels between our two countries for these points to be made.  No doubt people will disagree, that is your right, but I have made my case and do not intend to get involved in rising to the bait!

Best wishes,

Jonathan

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

The regular flu killed 50,000 Americans last year.  We're no where near that point with C-19.

After only a month you can predict what this year will bring?
Currently, the outlook for the USA is possibly 100,000 (or more) in 2 weeks time.

And the reason we're not doing worse than we are is due to the exceptional mitigation efforts taken.
When was the economy shut down last year over influenza?

You seem to be in denial. That's very dangerous.

[Alan Klein]

After only a month you can predict what this year will bring?
Currently, the outlook for the USA is possibly 100,000 (or more) in 2 weeks time.

And the reason we're not doing worse than we are is due to the exceptional mitigation efforts taken.
When was the economy shut down last year over influenza?

You seem to be in denial. That's very dangerous.

Bart You're cherry picking my statements same as you do with Trump.  I predicted the possibility of 200,000 to one million deaths.

Here's a copy of that post.

I just did my own analysis of what could be in store based on figures coming in by county throughout the US.  Comparing percentage of deaths to cases, it varies significantly depending in which county.  Assuming it spreads through the US everywhere and 40,000,000 are infected, anywheres from 200,000 to one million will die.  Of course that's based on discovered cases. That's of course if this things continues spreading and there';s no antidote.  The saving grace is if it dies out soon on it's own.    My estimates would be a lot lower of the actual infected is much higher but just not realized by those doing the statistics.

Here the charts I used if you want to do your own analysis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

[Alan Klein]

This contribution is mainly addressed to Alan Klein.  I hope that I am not considered patronising.  Alan, you have written several contributions to this thread, and sometimes used the words, ‘I don’t understand.’  Can I give some comments on how the UK is tackling the issue of the pandemic and the economy. Although there are differences between our two countries there are parallels, I believe.

Can I start with some assumptions.
1.   Society wants the pandemic to be time limited.
2.   Currently there is no vaccine that is known to be effective and with no dire side effects.
3.   The virus spreads through human interaction.
4.   Comparisons have been made to seasonal flu. I think it would be fair to say that society does not want to see extra deaths, nor more people becoming ill and stopping being fully functioning members of society while ill.
5.   Society does not want the health system in their country to become overwhelmed and unable to cope.  This could be caused by either or both of too many patients and/or staff becoming ill and would affect all with health issues not just Covid-19.
6.   To reduce the spread of the virus, human interaction has to be reduced.  People cannot be relied on to do this voluntarily, so Governments have to take action.
7.   Reduction in human interaction has a negative effect on the economy.

The dilemma is what governments do about reducing the negative effects on the economy and getting it up and running as soon as possible.  In the UK the thinking has been roughly along these lines.

Do nothing and people will become unemployed and the number of claimants will rise, probably by a large number. Money will have to found.  When it becomes time to get the economy going by relaxing restrictions, it will be a question of how quickly it can recover.  If nothing is done and the money is found for the increased benefits bill, then it is thought many companies will have ceased trading.  This will obviously have an effect on the economic recovery and extend the time extra benefit payments are made.  An alternative is to give financial help to employers, employees, and the self-employed for companies and business to stay afloat and to cut the benefits bill.  With fewer companies going broke and keeping staff on the books the economy should recover quicker.  It will also mean that people will have more money in their pockets as they are not unemployed so buying will start more quickly.  It is then a question of how much extra the Government has to find over the projected increased benefit bill and is it worth it to get the country back on its feet.  The UK Government thinks it is, and judging by the public reaction, they think it is as well.  The extra money will be found by extra borrowing, but borrowing costs are low currently.

As I wrote above, I do think that there are sufficient parallels between our two countries for these points to be made.  No doubt people will disagree, that is your right, but I have made my case and do not intend to get involved in rising to the bait!

Best wishes,

Jonathan

I never said we shouldn't help businesses or workers.  The scale of the bailout, however, will break the economy and make things worse. Some of the legislation is just wasteful on the face of it.  I covered some of these in previous posts. 

[Paulo Bizarro]

I never said we shouldn't help businesses or workers.  The scale of the bailout, however, will break the economy and make things worse. Some of the legislation is just wasteful on the face of it.  I covered some of these in previous posts.

I think countries like the USA and UK will be able to act faster than the EU, because they have their own currency. Some sort of EU bureaucrat today mentioned that coronabonds would take about 3 years to be in place,  whatever...

Talk about being detached from reality... I think the EU will not survive this crisis. It is telling that when Italy asked for help weeks ago, no EU country has replied. Who is helping them now? China and Russia.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Bart You're cherry picking my statements same as you do with Trump.  I predicted the possibility of 200,000 to one million deaths.

Then what on earth makes you compare Covid-19 to a seasonal flu?
It is not, in many ways.

[Alan Klein]

I think countries like the USA and UK will be able to act faster than the EU, because they have their own currency. Some sort of EU bureaucrat today mentioned that coronabonds would take about 3 years to be in place,  whatever...

Talk about being detached from reality... I think the EU will not survive this crisis. It is telling that when Italy asked for help weeks ago, no EU country has replied. Who is helping them now? China and Russia.

Be thankful Portugal (correction) can't print their own money.  Because America can, it's going to really screw up the US economy. 

Money is not wealth.  It's a store of wealth, a representation of wealth.  Otherwise, every government would just print all the money they want and everyone will be rich.  Currency represents the amount of productivity, the values of all goods and services a country produces.  If you print more, than every dollar or Euro will be devalued in purchasing power if the productivity is not increased.  Even in good times like before the virus. Since these are bad times, and productivity has declined by high amounts because so many business shut down, there's even more currency in circulation against total production making price inflation much worse. 

I see on Amazon, that everything is already gone up by huge amounts.  I [paid $24 for two rolls of plastic wrap probably worth $6 a month ago. (Hasn't anyone else noticed that???)  That's because all that cash sitting around going after so few needed goods raises prices.  People are not spending it on vacations and other toys.  So it's there for the spending on soap, cleaning supplies and food. 

Printing money does not help businesses.  It will destroy them.  More money printing causes higher prices.  People have less money to spend on more frivolous things like eating out.  They're spending on higher food prices, rent, and the other necessities of life.  So they stop going on vacations, eating out, etc.  So those businesses get hurt and fail, their employees are laid off, and the economy could tank. 

[Alan Klein]

Then what on earth makes you compare Covid-19 to a seasonal flu?
It is not, in many ways.

Because it's a virus like Covid 19.  There were 34 million flu cases in the US with 50,000 deaths.  Covid 19 may exceed that, but it hasn't yet.  We could get lucky and it will die out before that happens or are taking measure to preclude that from happening.  What's wrong about hoping so many won't die?  Heck, I could be one of them. 

[LesPalenik]

Covid-19 Timeline

here is a comparison of potential fatalities examining several scenarios
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-will-far-outnumber-trumps-recession-deaths-144328662.html

[JoeKitchen]

If anyone really believes the figures in that graph for China, hit me up.  I have a bridge I really need to get off my balance sheets this quarter. 

[Robert Roaldi]

If anyone really believes the figures in that graph for China, hit me up.  I have a bridge I really need to get off my balance sheets this quarter.

This is an often repeated thought. Their initial attempt to hide the real info didn't really work very well, not for long anyway, and that was when no one was looking. There's a worldwide internet, people have cell phones, there are joint research programs between Chinese and non-Chinese institutions. All I'm saying is that the size of conspiracy that would be required to sustain a lie this big is a bit too large for me to swallow without a lot more proof. And I don't mean online suppositions, I mean hard date from the CIA and other intelligence gathering entities. I would hope that they know a lot more than you or me.

A friend's husband does research at an institution in northern China. He flew back via Shanghai a couple of weeks ago. The situation there is such that some people think there is a higher risk of infection shopping for groceries in Ottawa. I know this is anecdotal data.

Your assumptions need some backup, is all I'm saying. In any case, at this time, what is or is not happening in Chinese government statistics is pretty small potatoes compared to what is happening in New York, Mississippi (still no stay-at-home directives last time I heard), Oklahoma, north Florida, with disease spread probably still to come in Chicago, Atlanta, etc. If you want to be suspicious about China's numbers, I get it, they'll need corroboration before the issue is put to bed, but it is kind of a side issue right now.

[JoeKitchen]

This is an often repeated thought. Their initial attempt to hide the real info didn't really work very well, not for long anyway, and that was when no one was looking. There's a worldwide internet, people have cell phones, there are joint research programs between Chinese and non-Chinese institutions. All I'm saying is that the size of conspiracy that would be required to sustain a lie this big is a bit too large for me to swallow without a lot more proof. And I don't mean online suppositions, I mean hard date from the CIA and other intelligence gathering entities. I would hope that they know a lot more than you or me.

A friend's husband does research at an institution in northern China. He flew back via Shanghai a couple of weeks ago. The situation there is such that some people think there is a higher risk of infection shopping for groceries in Ottawa. I know this is anecdotal data.

Your assumptions need some backup, is all I'm saying. In any case, at this time, what is or is not happening in Chinese government statistics is pretty small potatoes compared to what is happening in New York, Mississippi (still no stay-at-home directives last time I heard), Oklahoma, north Florida, with disease spread probably still to come in Chicago, Atlanta, etc. If you want to be suspicious about China's numbers, I get it, they'll need corroboration before the issue is put to bed, but it is kind of a side issue right now.

That does not stop the Chinese government from publishing false data and jailing those who report otherwise.  And some of those in the media fail for it hook, line and sinker.  To think that China has less cases then the USA is foolish, and using the WHO, of which it is pretty clear has become a shrill for China, data means any chart you put out will be false. 

As of yesterday, many in the media were reporting China's death toll to be around 5000, the official Chinese number.  However, at least 48,000 urns have been given out in Wuhan alone since this began. 

So I take these graphs with a grain of salt when they show official Chinese figures.

[PeterAit]

The government will be sending out recovery checks soon, a good thing IMO. But it seems that Trump wants his signature on the checks instead of the usual treasury secretary (or whoever). Could there be better example of his pettiness and egotism?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-wants-his-signature-to-appear-on-coronavirus-stimulus-checks-2020-03-28

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

The government will be sending out recovery checks soon, a good thing IMO. But it seems that Trump wants his signature on the checks instead of the usual treasury secretary (or whoever). Could there be better example of his pettiness and egotism?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-wants-his-signature-to-appear-on-coronavirus-stimulus-checks-2020-03-28

I also want the pen he is signing it with my check.

P.S. But in all seriousness, the vast majority of payments will come via direct deposit, not checks.

[faberryman]

I also want the pen he is signing it with my check.

P.S. But in all seriousness, the vast majority of payments will come via direct deposit, not checks.

I don't think you will get a pen, but I read that even for checks that are direct deposited, the IRS is sending written acknowledgements of such deposits by mail. I think that is the mechanism Trump is using to get his signature out to recipients. They will probably have a picture of Trump too. You'll have to buy your own frame.

[chez]

This is an often repeated thought. Their initial attempt to hide the real info didn't really work very well, not for long anyway, and that was when no one was looking. There's a worldwide internet, people have cell phones, there are joint research programs between Chinese and non-Chinese institutions. All I'm saying is that the size of conspiracy that would be required to sustain a lie this big is a bit too large for me to swallow without a lot more proof. And I don't mean online suppositions, I mean hard date from the CIA and other intelligence gathering entities. I would hope that they know a lot more than you or me.

A friend's husband does research at an institution in northern China. He flew back via Shanghai a couple of weeks ago. The situation there is such that some people think there is a higher risk of infection shopping for groceries in Ottawa. I know this is anecdotal data.

Your assumptions need some backup, is all I'm saying. In any case, at this time, what is or is not happening in Chinese government statistics is pretty small potatoes compared to what is happening in New York, Mississippi (still no stay-at-home directives last time I heard), Oklahoma, north Florida, with disease spread probably still to come in Chicago, Atlanta, etc. If you want to be suspicious about China's numbers, I get it, they'll need corroboration before the issue is put to bed, but it is kind of a side issue right now.

We are also seeing China sending supplies along with medical staff to different countries to help out. Does one really think China would be doing this if they had rampant spread in their own country?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... even for checks that are direct deposited, the IRS is sending written acknowledgements of such deposits by mail...

All my tax refunds were via direct deposit, and I never received any written acknowledgment.

[chez]

As of yesterday, many in the media were reporting China's death toll to be around 5000, the official Chinese number.  However, at least 48,000 urns have been given out in Wuhan alone since this began. 

And you know this to be true because you read it somewhere on the net?

[JoeKitchen]

We are also seeing China sending supplies along with medical staff to different countries to help out. Does one really think China would be doing this if they had rampant spread in their own country?

Yes!, and don't forget to mention many countries are turning them away due to poor quality.  Maybe they are keeping the better stuff for themselves?

China is trying to control the narrative right now, and since they have no problem welding their people into their houses, or jailing those who speak out against the government, I see no reason not to believe they would deny their citizens medical supplies just to get good press. 

It really is amazing how many people even on here fall for their propaganda. 

[JoeKitchen]

And you know this to be true because you read it somewhere on the net?

It's been reported in a few different major outlets. 

Additionally, there have been others who have noted that the creameries in Wuhan have a max capacity per day and have been burning bodies non-stop.  If you multiply this capacity by the total number of days they have been active, you get around 45,000 bodies having been cream mated.  These are from separate sources. 

On top of that, more sources have been reporting that China is paying people for their silence.  I think the amount is around 5000 yen per family. 

You really need to be a fool to believe any info coming from the Chinese government as of now, especially after how many known lies they published in the beginning of this.  And to believe any info on China coming from the WHO you would need to be equally foolish.  They were the ones telling the world in the middle of January that this disease did not have community spread capabilities, taking the word of the Chinese without sending a single person to Wuhan. 

You really think they just throw out all foreign journalists because of a spat they have with Trump?  No, they used that as an excuse so they could continue the coverup.