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Author Topic: COVID-19 updates  (Read 82179 times)

Jim Pascoe

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #960 on: March 23, 2020, 06:46:10 am »

How many people could starve, blow their brains out, and jump out of windows if there's a total economic collapse?  The stock market may capitulate this week.  It went through a limit down futures crash on Sunday.  Sure pollution will no longer be a problem nor will CO2 and global warming.  But the ancillary negative effects are going to be catastrophic.  I just read that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts the US GDP may be 50% with an unemployment rate of 30%, worse than the great depression.  People will not be able to survive the economic issues regardless of what's going on medically.  Wealth, assets, savings, currency value, are all going to get wiped out. If the government prints to make everyone whole, we'll become Argentina or Zimbabwe or Germany under the Kaiser with wheelbarrows of worthless paper money.  What do others here  who are in business figure what's going to happen?  How are you planning to survive this thing? 
https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-crash-1000-points-as-feds-bullard-cites-50-u-s-gdp/

Alan, this does not need to be the end of civilisation.  In a way, the governments are in complete control of the problem.  If it was so desired - they could just let the virus rip through society in a few months and around 4% of the population would die - mostly older economically unproductive people. Their wealth would be passed on to their offspring to spend. Then everyone could carry on as normal, but with a far fewer elderly and sick people to support.  But, quite rightly, that is not the course of action taken and so we all have to buckle down and wait.  Yes the major economies are going to take a huge hit - and nobody likes the unknown.  But once we are through the worst and a vaccine is developed, life will carry on - hopefully we will be better people (as in society) because of it.

Regarding your first sentence about how many will starve, blow their brains out, or jump from windows - I'm glad to say that at least in the UK the first two are highly unlikely as nobody will be allowed to starve and without guns nobody will be going around shooting themselves or anyone else.  For those two reasons alone I'm glad not to be living in the USA.  I do hope for all your sakes that the majority of good people there will prevail.

Jim
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #961 on: March 23, 2020, 07:17:07 am »

Alan, this does not need to be the end of civilisation.  In a way, the governments are in complete control of the problem. If it was so desired - they could just let the virus rip through society in a few months and around 4% of the population would die - mostly older economically unproductive people. Their wealth would be passed on to their offspring to spend. Then everyone could carry on as normal, but with a far fewer elderly and sick people to support.  But, quite rightly, that is not the course of action taken and so we all have to buckle down and wait.  Yes the major economies are going to take a huge hit - and nobody likes the unknown.  But once we are through the worst and a vaccine is developed, life will carry on - hopefully we will be better people (as in society) because of it.

Regarding your first sentence about how many will starve, blow their brains out, or jump from windows - I'm glad to say that at least in the UK the first two are highly unlikely as nobody will be allowed to starve and without guns nobody will be going around shooting themselves or anyone else.  For those two reasons alone I'm glad not to be living in the USA.  I do hope for all your sakes that the majority of good people there will prevail.

Jim
This is what concerns me.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #962 on: March 23, 2020, 07:25:07 am »

What good is having my business survive if I catch this thing and it kills me.  Choose your poison.  Live or keep the economy going and maybe die.   I’ve made my choice and I’ll do whatever I can do to not get coved-19.

Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #963 on: March 23, 2020, 08:24:40 am »

Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...
Bart I understand that the Dutch are following different procedures.  There wasn't a shutdown like over here.  Can you explain what they're doing?

armand

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #964 on: March 23, 2020, 08:32:00 am »

China is sending medical supplies to Europe, including ventilators, and including my country (Portugal) for free. So not everybody is thinking "profit" right now.

That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #965 on: March 23, 2020, 09:56:43 am »

That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.
I smell a rat with everything China does. They're an untrustworthy nation who doesn;t follow the rules stealing commercial secrets, robbing intellectual property, etc.  They're not to be trusted.  I can;t believe we in the west have turned over our family jewels to them.  There was an old expression that went around during the time of the Soviet Union.  That the west would sell them the rope that they would use to hang us.  Well, with China, they're making the rope too. 

Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #966 on: March 23, 2020, 10:20:06 am »

Now, that Harvey Weinstein tested positive in jail, where can you feel safe?

At least he won't have to "not" commit suicide.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #967 on: March 23, 2020, 10:30:20 am »

Hope you have enough food stockpiled for a year ...

I'm only good for about 6 months if it gets to my rations.  I suppose I could add an extra month or two if went subsistance. Sooner or later and I really hope its later I'll need to venture out again and resupply if I can.

I took a lot of heat from family and friends for doing what they called "panic" buying right after this started in China.  I really, really wanted to be wrong.  But sadly I might be right and Im not really happy about that. I screwed up however by not liquidatiiong a bunch of stocks.  I was ready to pull the trigher but something stopped me.  I'm a bit upset I did not follow my gut.  Can't win them all.  Now, its just trying to stay alive.

The problem is many other are not in the same position.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #968 on: March 23, 2020, 10:46:24 am »

Bart I understand that the Dutch are following different procedures.  There wasn't a shutdown like over here.  Can you explain what they're doing?

Nobody can escape it, so we try to minimize the health issues (like overburdened ICUs and personnel). This week will be crucial for the Netherlands (which was affected slightly later than others), will we be able to flatten the curve that was set by Italy? We adopted the principle of Social Distancing, but not a total Lock-down, on March 16th. Essential functions are allowed to be open, like medical, transport, food, garbage collection, etc., as long as 1.5 meters (5 feet) distance between individuals is maintained. People are (so far) discouraged to go outdoors if they can avoid it, this regime may be tightened to mandatory home quarantine or (for those already having tested positive) isolation, or a restriction to a maximum of 2 people in any public location.

Schools were initially not included, but they were formally added a few days after the rest of society. By now, many schools have put into place a system of Electronic Schooling that seems to function reasonably well, given the circumstances. Children of workers in essential occupations can still go daycare. It also helps maintain peace in families that are now forced on to each other's lips 24/7.

Because a peak is expected this week, ICU patients from the first hit regions in the country were already moved to locations across the country with still relatively good spare ICU capacity, so that those patients who will be added this week do not make the system fail. For that purpose, regular passenger buses were transformed into 6-person ambulances.

The whole approach is science-driven as was explained in a National Address by the Prime Minister. The options were presented, and the preferred choice explained. That approach achieved broad support under the total population, also from all political parties, although there are still some individuals who act irresponsibly.

The political effect, although certainly not the main focus, is that the PM's approval rating hit 68% after his speech to the nation, which is exceptional for a sitting president. His approval rating fluctuated between 25 and 45% before the Corona crisis, which is normal for a critical country like ours.

Economically, we're relatively fine for many months if need be. The government has been building reserves since 2008, so they can accommodate businesses and individuals with delays in tax payments, temporary unemployment benefits without a lot of paperwork, personal loans with few restrictions and low-interest rates, to name a few.

As said, we expect a significant exponential increase in patients and casualties this week, but also expect to see the first effects of the measures taken by a flattening of the curve. If that's not enough, then more draconic actions will need to be taken to reign in the few individuals who threaten the joint effort.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #969 on: March 23, 2020, 10:47:38 am »

That's honourable and I hope it's done because of their good heart. Our guilt.
But, I'm a little more cynical about this stuff and think about the alternatives, such as trying to score points in Europe for a higher influence in the future. They've been trying to get a better footing in Europe for some years now, this is a good opportunity particularly with US not opposing them.

Correct, handed to them on a silver platter.
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PeterAit

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #970 on: March 23, 2020, 11:57:59 am »

Correct, handed to them on a silver platter.

The US has been giving foreign aid for a long time, with the motivation (mostly) of increasing our influence. And now China does it and it is suddenly evil?
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RSL

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #971 on: March 23, 2020, 12:00:00 pm »

No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?
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hogloff

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #972 on: March 23, 2020, 12:23:49 pm »

No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?

Same goals, and not so different means.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #973 on: March 23, 2020, 12:34:13 pm »

Same goals, and not so different means.
You must be from China.

William Walker

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #974 on: March 23, 2020, 12:42:52 pm »

I've been thinking that you'd be better off getting sick now while they have ventilators and hospital beds rather than later when there's nothing left.  Pay now or pay later.  It always seem to cost more later.

Alan, I am shocked to see the spread around where you live... the bottom line for you is: don't get the bloody thing in the first place! Do your best to stay safe. Listen to the experts.

I hope you are able to keep it at bay!

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hogloff

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #975 on: March 23, 2020, 12:52:43 pm »

You must be from China.

Nope, just don't have painted glasses on. Seen what has gone on in this world this past 50 years.
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William Walker

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #976 on: March 23, 2020, 12:55:36 pm »

No difference between the US and China. Right Peter?

I was watching a local economist discussing the whole corona virus business and he said something interesting: he spoke about the fact that it seems that all the countries in the world are approaching this on an ad hoc basis, there is no combined, single effort. The world is lacking leadership and that leadership usually comes from the United States... What happens when there is a vacuum? Someone fills it, in this case China has been given the run of the show.

Say what you like, "America first" will affect everyone, including the US.   
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #977 on: March 23, 2020, 12:57:50 pm »

Same goals, and not so different means.

Yeah, the Americans have been trying for years to steal the recipe for Chinese noodle soup.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #978 on: March 23, 2020, 01:04:54 pm »

Nobody can escape it, so we try to minimize the health issues (like overburdened ICUs and personnel). This week will be crucial for the Netherlands (which was affected slightly later than others), will we be able to flatten the curve that was set by Italy? We adopted the principle of Social Distancing, but not a total Lock-down, on March 16th. Essential functions are allowed to be open, like medical, transport, food, garbage collection, etc., as long as 1.5 meters (5 feet) distance between individuals is maintained. People are (so far) discouraged to go outdoors if they can avoid it, this regime may be tightened to mandatory home quarantine or (for those already having tested positive) isolation, or a restriction to a maximum of 2 people in any public location.

Schools were initially not included, but they were formally added a few days after the rest of society. By now, many schools have put into place a system of Electronic Schooling that seems to function reasonably well, given the circumstances. Children of workers in essential occupations can still go daycare. It also helps maintain peace in families that are now forced on to each other's lips 24/7.

Because a peak is expected this week, ICU patients from the first hit regions in the country were already moved to locations across the country with still relatively good spare ICU capacity, so that those patients who will be added this week do not make the system fail. For that purpose, regular passenger buses were transformed into 6-person ambulances.

The whole approach is science-driven as was explained in a National Address by the Prime Minister. The options were presented, and the preferred choice explained. That approach achieved broad support under the total population, also from all political parties, although there are still some individuals who act irresponsibly.

The political effect, although certainly not the main focus, is that the PM's approval rating hit 68% after his speech to the nation, which is exceptional for a sitting president. His approval rating fluctuated between 25 and 45% before the Corona crisis, which is normal for a critical country like ours.

Economically, we're relatively fine for many months if need be. The government has been building reserves since 2008, so they can accommodate businesses and individuals with delays in tax payments, temporary unemployment benefits without a lot of paperwork, personal loans with few restrictions and low-interest rates, to name a few.

As said, we expect a significant exponential increase in patients and casualties this week, but also expect to see the first effects of the measures taken by a flattening of the curve. If that's not enough, then more draconic actions will need to be taken to reign in the few individuals who threaten the joint effort.
You're basically doing what we're doing here.  But what about small businesses like food shops, coffee shops, barbers, office workers in large corporations?  Photographers?  Etc.  EVerything here seems to be shutting down.  I thought the Netherlands was keeping those places open over there?

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #979 on: March 23, 2020, 01:13:12 pm »

The US has been giving foreign aid for a long time, with the motivation (mostly) of increasing our influence. And now China does it and it is suddenly evil?

Indeed... I am appalled by the reaction of some people here. China, together witht some other Asian countries like south Korea and Japan, have shown how to tackle this problem: a lot of testing and effective quarantine. They are at the forefront of the scientific testing. Those countries have a lot of experience from previous epidemics like the SARS-COV1 in 2002 and 2003.

We should listen to them without needless remarks. Blaming the "china virus" to divert attention from pour own incompetence from our "leaders" will not result - people are not that stupid. Unfortunately, the countries of Trump, Bolsonaro, and Boris, will suffer a lot with this.
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