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Author Topic: mamiya and phase  (Read 69356 times)

Anthony R

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« Reply #160 on: November 16, 2007, 03:17:00 pm »

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.......r and I think they are close to overtaking Phase in sales volume.

Nick-T
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So untrue it hardly deserves a response, but oh well...
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John_Black

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« Reply #161 on: November 16, 2007, 04:07:19 pm »

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you mean like the RZ?
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"Live View" like the new Canon's, Nikon's and some of medium format backs.
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hubell

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« Reply #162 on: November 16, 2007, 04:10:35 pm »

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So untrue it hardly deserves a response, but oh well...
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In a way, whether Nick is right or wrong is really beside the point. Those announcing with such conviction that Hasselblad has made a "mistake" in its approach with the H3D or "cut off its nose to spite its face" have no idea what they are talking about. Why? Because they have not seen Hasselblad's sales and profitability numbers and future projections for the H3D compared to where those numbers were in prior years and would likely be in future years without the H3D. Yes, they have alienated a part of their customer base, which is unfortunate, but what is the size of that group(who were not going to buy Hasselblad backs anyway even if you practically gave them away to them---completely closed minds) compared to what I believe is a far larger potential market of customers who prefer a fully integrated system. In short, the jury is out here and the future will tell us of the wisdom of Hasselblad's approach.

Mort54

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« Reply #163 on: November 16, 2007, 05:07:09 pm »

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And who are these new European lenses?  Did Zeiss sign up, or maybe Leica? 
I'm not sure I read anywhere that these would be new European lenses. They could be existing lenses. From Michael's interview, there is supposed to be a Hassy V adapter. That gives Phase access to all the old Hassy V lenses, which are European and Leaf Shutter. I hope I'm wrong, but I wonder if all the talk of leaf shutters and European lenses in nothing more than what you get when you provide a Hassy V lens adapter - you get all those old (but good) Hassy lenses.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 05:07:33 pm by Mort54 »
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jpjespersen

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« Reply #164 on: November 16, 2007, 05:25:17 pm »

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Leonardo Barreto

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« Reply #165 on: November 16, 2007, 05:35:55 pm »

That is an interesting point wright there. How is the MF DB pie today? I think that when I got my Phase, about a year ago it was something like 75% Phase, and the dominant body was the Hasselblad...

Is this information Googleable?


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So untrue it hardly deserves a response, but oh well...
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canmiya

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« Reply #166 on: November 16, 2007, 05:37:13 pm »

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I'm not sure I read anywhere that these would be new European lenses. They could be existing lenses. From Michael's interview, there is supposed to be a Hassy V adapter. That gives Phase access to all the old Hassy V lenses, which are European and Leaf Shutter. I hope I'm wrong, but I wonder if all the talk of leaf shutters and European lenses in nothing more than what you get when you provide a Hassy V lens adapter - you get all those old (but good) Hassy lenses.
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from MR's telephone interview with phase one ceo:
"The new camera system will be based on the Mamiya lens mount and back mount. Previous lenses will be able to be fitted. A new line of AF lenses will be made available. Some will be made by Mamiya, some by other lens manufacturers, including some from Europe. There will be leaf shutter lenses available as well for high flash sync speeds.
the entire essay:
[a href=\"http://www.luminous-landscape.com/essays/hitched.shtml]http://www.luminous-landscape.com/essays/hitched.shtml[/url]
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Mort54

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« Reply #167 on: November 16, 2007, 05:56:35 pm »

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from MR's telephone interview with phase one ceo:
"The new camera system will be based on the Mamiya lens mount and back mount. Previous lenses will be able to be fitted. A new line of AF lenses will be made available. Some will be made by Mamiya, some by other lens manufacturers, including some from Europe. There will be leaf shutter lenses available as well for high flash sync speeds.
OK, that does indicate new Euro lenses, assuming there wasn't any confusion during the interview. I guess we'll find out for sure in due time.
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pprdigital

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« Reply #168 on: November 16, 2007, 09:29:30 pm »

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You claim "This is where Hasselblad went wrong"

I think this is where Hasselblad went RIGHT, despite all the carping on this forum I believe Hasselblad's sales have never been better and I think they are close to overtaking Phase in sales volume.

Nick-T
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So untrue it hardly deserves a response, but oh well...
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On the contrary, this is indeed true.

Steve Hendrix
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Morgan_Moore

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« Reply #169 on: November 17, 2007, 01:17:08 am »

It is no suprise to me that blad have probably sprung into the lead

Phase got a great market share as the first decent untethered back

Recent confusion will have hit Phase

The actual position will be confirmed after the release of this camera surely

S
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John_Black

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« Reply #170 on: November 17, 2007, 04:47:22 am »

I'm all for Mamiya and Phase joining forces, however, if the partnership ends up raising prices on the Mamiya side and everything is priced the same as Hassy, Leaf, Sinar, etc., then I don't think this new partnership will change the market much.  With the ZD back Mamiya opened the door to a decent quality back at an affordable price.  I'd like to see Mamiya continue in this direction with better backs in the future (better LCD, better throughputs, etc.)  

If Phase lists a P25+ for $19k and Mamiya lists their ZD for $7k, then I see some potential issues.  Granted, Phase's list price isn't reality, but it's still much more than a ZD.  Since Mamiya will presumably get their back technology from Phase, then I think the days of $7k backs may be numbered...  Another big advantage has been Mamiya's relatively inexpensive lenses (at least on the used market).  If all their new lenses are going to follow in the recent trend of $3k & $4k, then their relative price advantage (compared to the Rollei, Schnieder & Hass HC) is gone too.

I'm not worried about the technical aspects of the partnership since both sides have good pedigree.  It's the pricing that will make or break it.  And if they price too high and Hassy keeps up with their aggressive pricing, then Hassy will end up being the winner.  A 21 MP 1Ds3 is a viable option too, along with a Nikon D3X (presumably).  And in another 3 years those will be 24-27 MP dSLRs, and that's getting really close to P30+ territory.  Mamiya opened the door with ZD, now it's up to Phase to put a nice bow on it and turn the market upside with a ZD II back for $6999.  Bundle that with the AFD II kit for $9999 - and then lets re-do the digital back pole in 12 months and see how those percentages shake out
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mcfoto

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« Reply #171 on: November 17, 2007, 05:39:06 am »

Hi
With this working partnership there will be shared HW & SW when you read the Mamiya USA press release. Now that should lead to the ZD being supported by Capture One? If they do release the ZDII why not keep the price the same. The camera has been built.
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Anders_HK

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« Reply #172 on: November 17, 2007, 07:28:38 am »

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I'm all for Mamiya and Phase joining forces, however, if the partnership ends up raising prices on the Mamiya side and everything is priced the same as Hassy, Leaf, Sinar, etc., then I don't think this new partnership will change the market much.  With the ZD back Mamiya opened the door to a decent quality back at an affordable price.  I'd like to see Mamiya continue in this direction with better backs in the future (better LCD, better throughputs, etc.) 

If Phase lists a P25+ for $19k and Mamiya lists their ZD for $7k, then I see some potential issues.  Granted, Phase's list price isn't reality, but it's still much more than a ZD.  Since Mamiya will presumably get their back technology from Phase, then I think the days of $7k backs may be numbered...  Another big advantage has been Mamiya's relatively inexpensive lenses (at least on the used market).  If all their new lenses are going to follow in the recent trend of $3k & $4k, then their relative price advantage (compared to the Rollei, Schnieder & Hass HC) is gone too.

I'm not worried about the technical aspects of the partnership since both sides have good pedigree.  It's the pricing that will make or break it.  And if they price too high and Hassy keeps up with their aggressive pricing, then Hassy will end up being the winner.  A 21 MP 1Ds3 is a viable option too, along with a Nikon D3X (presumably).  And in another 3 years those will be 24-27 MP dSLRs, and that's getting really close to P30+ territory.  Mamiya opened the door with ZD, now it's up to Phase to put a nice bow on it and turn the market upside with a ZD II back for $6999.  Bundle that with the AFD II kit for $9999 - and then lets re-do the digital back pole in 12 months and see how those percentages shake out
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John,

Very very good words .

Regards
Anders
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Graham Mitchell

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« Reply #173 on: November 17, 2007, 08:57:50 am »

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Mamiya opened the door with ZD, now it's up to Phase to put a nice bow on it and turn the market upside with a ZD II back for $6999.

The problem with this idea is that I believe the ZD was being sold off basically at cost price, to try and offload stock before the already outdated ZDs became unsellable dinosaurs. I don't think these prices are possible for a profitable business and the volumes we are talking here.

The big issue is the price of the sensor. I got a price from Kodak on a 22MP sensor a while ago and even in quantity the price was around $5K, iirc, so you can easily imagine that a ZD costs $6K+ to build.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2007, 08:58:34 am by foto-z »
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jonstewart

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« Reply #174 on: November 17, 2007, 11:15:57 am »

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And in another 3 years those will be 24-27 MP dSLRs, and that's getting really close to P30+ territory.
 
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Agree with the rest, but really can't see this happening unless there is a very significant shift in materials technology.

Sure, you can have 24-27Mpixel from a ff 35mm sensor, but the necessary smaller photosite size is likely to have some impact on final image quality.

The other problem of course is the ability to make glass to deliver the resolution required. Canon's current marketing whizz of removing wasted space between photosites, while maintaining photosite size, with more sites on a ff sensor, just compounds the resolution issue for the glass, methinks.
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Anders_HK

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« Reply #175 on: November 17, 2007, 11:51:03 am »

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The problem with this idea is that I believe the ZD was being sold off basically at cost price, to try and offload stock before the already outdated ZDs became unsellable dinosaurs. I don't think these prices are possible for a profitable business and the volumes we are talking here.

The big issue is the price of the sensor. I got a price from Kodak on a 22MP sensor a while ago and even in quantity the price was around $5K, iirc, so you can easily imagine that a ZD costs $6K+ to build.
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Perhaps Dalsa is cheaper? For sure the price has attracted also people like me to digital medium format who else would not have considered it. Perhaps continued and upgraded affordable Mamiya digital backs can be beneficial to both Mamiya and Phase since it attracts customers and some may later upgrade to Phase.

Regards
Anders
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Anthony R

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« Reply #176 on: November 17, 2007, 01:16:12 pm »

Please show me. I live and work in the hardly arguable photographic capital of the world. What doesn't live here, comes through here on a regular basis from the rest of this country, western Europe and beyond.

I see more Leaf and Phase than anything else. I would say that in the last year or so I have been seeing more Phase than in the past and would guesstimate that it is around 50/50 Phase - Leaf. No others in the professional market that I have seen, and I have seen a lot. One could even go to all the rental outfits in NY and see what they carry and/or query the prepress and retouching boutiques.

I do see a lot of H1s, H2s, etc.

If you have different information I would like to see it.



l
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On the contrary, this is indeed true.

Steve Hendrix
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Wim van Velzen

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« Reply #177 on: November 17, 2007, 01:53:13 pm »

I would guess than here in the Netherlands, Hasselblad are the best sold DBs. Lots of regional differences around the world, I suppose.
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pprdigital

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« Reply #178 on: November 17, 2007, 03:27:18 pm »

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Please show me. I live and work in the hardly arguable photographic capital of the world. What doesn't live here, comes through here on a regular basis from the rest of this country, western Europe and beyond.

I see more Leaf and Phase than anything else. I would say that in the last year or so I have been seeing more Phase than in the past and would guesstimate that it is around 50/50 Phase - Leaf. No others in the professional market that I have seen, and I have seen a lot. One could even go to all the rental outfits in NY and see what they carry and/or query the prepress and retouching boutiques.

I do see a lot of H1s, H2s, etc.

If you have different information I would like to see it.
l
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My information is not from looking around and seeing who is using what. My information is from sources who are familiar with the volume of sensor purchases from the two manufacturers that supply them.

We don't have to turn this into a he said she said thing. I'm not going to argue about who has what market share. I'm just stating that I am confident of the numbers and that 1) looking around one city, and 2) considering one market does not tell the most accurate story.

I don't have a problem if this claim goes un-believed, and it doesn't need to be debated. I can understand being in a major photographic market and not seeing much Hasselblad and coming to that conclusion. But if someone gets slammed because they are stating something I know to be true, I'll defend their claim.

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John_Black

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« Reply #179 on: November 17, 2007, 04:48:55 pm »

Graham - How or why Mamiya came up with their $7k ZD doesn't really matter.  When it comes to marketing one thing is consistent regardless of the product, industry, customer, etc - once you've put a price out there, raising it, stepping back or reducing what is delivered always meets with fierce resistance.  The marketplace doesn't tolerate price increases very well.  Especially technology related segments.  You can try to raise price and justify it with value propositions, cloud the discussions by altering scope of work, and even more so with various incentives.  But the crux of all this, once that price point in out there - it's out there and rescinding is all but impossible.  

I'm not professional and no money comes from my photography - unfortunately it's a one way street.  There are professionals such as yourself who can justify different investments, but that's a smaller market.  We've read posts here were the number of medium of format bodies and backs sold are measured in the 1000's per year.  Canon, Nikon, et al measure their sales volume in the 10,000's and 100,000's.  If I were Phase & Mamiya, do I want scrape and claw to hang onto a diminishing market?  Or, do I want to open new markets?  The answer is obvious - new markets.  Expand the base.  We're already seeing this - Hassy is putting the refurb'd H3D-22 kits out there for $13k'ish; Mamiya got our attention with a $7k back.  The Hy6 is getting fanfare, but not from the guys like me with their 1Ds2.  A $20k or $30k kit that's will lose 1/2 its value in 2-3 years...   Not only does it cost a small fortune to get on aboard, but once you do, all you've bought is a rapidly depreciating asset which tends to need even more money in the future (ie lenses, etc).  Granted, a Mamiya ZD back depreciates too - but I'd rather have 50% depreciation on a $7k investment compared to $20k.

dSLRs are knocking at the 22 MP door.  The 22 MP back market is being eroded by $12-$13k refurb'd back/body combo's.  The days of the 22 MP as a high-end back are numbered.  I see a convergence of medium format and dSLRs at the 22 MP point.  For the 22 MP sensor makers all the development costs have long been written off.  The equipment is there to produce them and little ongoing development is needed to keep them current.  So what's left is the variable costs to produce the sensors & backs and associated channel costs and selling expenses.  So again, do you try to do business as usual and hang on to the existing market?  Or, repackage the hardware and go after new segments?  Phase should embrace the $7k ZD.  Make it better, make it more obtainable.  Where does that leave Hassy and the Hy6 guys?  They'll be chasing that shrinking market who can afford the more expensive equipment.  

I agree with the earlier poster who said pixel quality of the 1Ds3 and alike are diminishing.  More pixels crammed into the same space can only go so far.  Point well taken and I don't want to go there.  To me the Mamiya/Phase is a business development exercise.  In contrast the Hy6 group didn't come up with a cheaper solution appealing to a broader segment.  I think their strategy is even more niche oriented - at least the pricing is.  The Hy6 is pretty specialized camera with some pretty expensive bits.  Phase will still have it's P30+ and P45+ for the professionals and those willing to spend some extra money.  So they can duke it out with Hass, Sinar, Leaf, etc., in those segments.  For the most part in those areas it will be business as usual.

It's the 22 MP segment where Phase and Mamiya can really turn the medium format industry upside down.  The ZD camera (not the back) is the product that can challenge and steal money away from Canon and Nikon.  This goes back the pixel quality (larger photosites), Mamiya and Phase can push the glam button and tell us how medium format gives a distinctive look that a small, inferior negative (ie the Canon FF sensor) simply can't match, plus medium format is series pro gear (the perception) and not a little girly 1.6x dSLR.  If Mamiya and Phase can spin their products as cross overs, give Canon and Nikon a fight at the $8k-$10k, then they (Mamiya & Phase) can be a huge disruptor.  Can Hassy and Hy6 group even compete at the price point?  They may not even want to.  Meanwhile Phase can flood the market with $7k ZD II backs in the Contax, H2 and other mounts.  That puts even more downward price pressure on the other players.  And coup de gras - Phase and Leica partner with Leica and offer some dSLR products.  This is a tricky fit, but the goal would be to even further blur the line between going with Canon and Nikon.  If it works, you're strangling the competition above you in the high end markets, meanwhile you're attacking Canon and Nikon and laying the ground work to expand market share.  Maybe I had too much coffee today   The Leica bit is pretty far out there

So I think this all comes down to pricing and reaching new markets with more attractive price points that enthusiasts such as myself can handle.  Hobbyists and enthusiasts clearly out number the pro's, so they would be my target market.  Being one of those guys, I'm probably a bit biased
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