Graham - How or why Mamiya came up with their $7k ZD doesn't really matter. When it comes to marketing one thing is consistent regardless of the product, industry, customer, etc - once you've put a price out there, raising it, stepping back or reducing what is delivered always meets with fierce resistance. The marketplace doesn't tolerate price increases very well. Especially technology related segments. You can try to raise price and justify it with value propositions, cloud the discussions by altering scope of work, and even more so with various incentives. But the crux of all this, once that price point in out there - it's out there and rescinding is all but impossible.
I'm not professional and no money comes from my photography - unfortunately it's a one way street. There are professionals such as yourself who can justify different investments, but that's a smaller market. We've read posts here were the number of medium of format bodies and backs sold are measured in the 1000's per year. Canon, Nikon, et al measure their sales volume in the 10,000's and 100,000's. If I were Phase & Mamiya, do I want scrape and claw to hang onto a diminishing market? Or, do I want to open new markets? The answer is obvious - new markets. Expand the base. We're already seeing this - Hassy is putting the refurb'd H3D-22 kits out there for $13k'ish; Mamiya got our attention with a $7k back. The Hy6 is getting fanfare, but not from the guys like me with their 1Ds2. A $20k or $30k kit that's will lose 1/2 its value in 2-3 years... Not only does it cost a small fortune to get on aboard, but once you do, all you've bought is a rapidly depreciating asset which tends to need even more money in the future (ie lenses, etc). Granted, a Mamiya ZD back depreciates too - but I'd rather have 50% depreciation on a $7k investment compared to $20k.
dSLRs are knocking at the 22 MP door. The 22 MP back market is being eroded by $12-$13k refurb'd back/body combo's. The days of the 22 MP as a high-end back are numbered. I see a convergence of medium format and dSLRs at the 22 MP point. For the 22 MP sensor makers all the development costs have long been written off. The equipment is there to produce them and little ongoing development is needed to keep them current. So what's left is the variable costs to produce the sensors & backs and associated channel costs and selling expenses. So again, do you try to do business as usual and hang on to the existing market? Or, repackage the hardware and go after new segments? Phase should embrace the $7k ZD. Make it better, make it more obtainable. Where does that leave Hassy and the Hy6 guys? They'll be chasing that shrinking market who can afford the more expensive equipment.
I agree with the earlier poster who said pixel quality of the 1Ds3 and alike are diminishing. More pixels crammed into the same space can only go so far. Point well taken and I don't want to go there. To me the Mamiya/Phase is a business development exercise. In contrast the Hy6 group didn't come up with a cheaper solution appealing to a broader segment. I think their strategy is even more niche oriented - at least the pricing is. The Hy6 is pretty specialized camera with some pretty expensive bits. Phase will still have it's P30+ and P45+ for the professionals and those willing to spend some extra money. So they can duke it out with Hass, Sinar, Leaf, etc., in those segments. For the most part in those areas it will be business as usual.
It's the 22 MP segment where Phase and Mamiya can really turn the medium format industry upside down. The ZD camera (not the back) is the product that can challenge and steal money away from Canon and Nikon. This goes back the pixel quality (larger photosites), Mamiya and Phase can push the glam button and tell us how medium format gives a distinctive look that a small, inferior negative (ie the Canon FF sensor) simply can't match, plus medium format is series pro gear (the perception) and not a little girly 1.6x dSLR. If Mamiya and Phase can spin their products as cross overs, give Canon and Nikon a fight at the $8k-$10k, then they (Mamiya & Phase) can be a huge disruptor. Can Hassy and Hy6 group even compete at the price point? They may not even want to. Meanwhile Phase can flood the market with $7k ZD II backs in the Contax, H2 and other mounts. That puts even more downward price pressure on the other players. And coup de gras - Phase and Leica partner with Leica and offer some dSLR products. This is a tricky fit, but the goal would be to even further blur the line between going with Canon and Nikon. If it works, you're strangling the competition above you in the high end markets, meanwhile you're attacking Canon and Nikon and laying the ground work to expand market share. Maybe I had too much coffee today The Leica bit is pretty far out there
So I think this all comes down to pricing and reaching new markets with more attractive price points that enthusiasts such as myself can handle. Hobbyists and enthusiasts clearly out number the pro's, so they would be my target market. Being one of those guys, I'm probably a bit biased