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Author Topic: Where To For Phase One?  (Read 85643 times)

Steve Kerman

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #40 on: October 14, 2007, 07:43:05 pm »

It think it is funny watching this speculation going around and around in circles.    

When you think about it, there are really just a handful of enumerable possibilities.  In order of what appears to me to be the most desirable to the least desirable courses of action, these possibilities are:

1.  Phase in one way or another gets on board the Hy6 platform.

2.  Phase resurrects Contax.

3a.  Phase does a deal with Mamiya.

3b.  Phase resurrects Bronica.

4.  Phase does a deal with Pentax.

5.  Phase develops their own camera, possibly in conjunction with Zeiss or some other lens maker.

6.  Phase rolls over and dies.

That's pretty much an exhaustive list of the possibilities.

Take you pick.
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TechTalk

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #41 on: October 14, 2007, 07:56:14 pm »

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I've heard rumors (from a very reliable source) that Phase One is currently working on putting out their own camera system. If true, this would be awesome.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=145942\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


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I'd really like to see that happen!!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=145950\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Would it be a good, true-hearted and kind-spirited open system that takes any digital back?

Or an evil and mean closed system?
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Steve Kerman

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #42 on: October 14, 2007, 07:57:23 pm »

(Continuing from my previous post) Then add in what we think we know:

1.  I believe I saw a statement from Michael that Phase has a plan.

2.  Michael has categorically stated that resurrecting Contax is not a possibility.

3.  I think I saw Michael state several months ago that Phase was going to be available on the Hy6 platform.

From a practical point of view, that pretty much leaves possiblities 1, 3a, and 5.  I view 5 as quite unlikely.  And, not to denigrate those who really like Mamiya, but there are many folk who would view a Phase/Mamiya combination as rather like a Rolls Royce/Yugo deal to put Rolls Royce engines in Yugos.

That would seem to leave a Phase/Hy6 deal as by far the most probable.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2007, 07:58:10 pm by Steve Kerman »
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clayh

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #43 on: October 14, 2007, 08:22:27 pm »

Add #7:

7) Phase reverse engineers the firmware that communicates with the back for the H2F, and offers modded H2s to their customers

Quote
It think it is funny watching this speculation going around and around in circles.   

When you think about it, there are really just a handful of enumerable possibilities.  In order of what appears to me to be the most desirable to the least desirable courses of action, these possibilities are:

1.  Phase in one way or another gets on board the Hy6 platform.

2.  Phase resurrects Contax.

3a.  Phase does a deal with Mamiya.

3b.  Phase resurrects Bronica.

4.  Phase does a deal with Pentax.

5.  Phase develops their own camera, possibly in conjunction with Zeiss or some other lens maker.

6.  Phase rolls over and dies.

That's pretty much an exhaustive list of the possibilities.

Take you pick.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146016\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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TechTalk

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #44 on: October 14, 2007, 08:31:19 pm »

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i am sure sinar and leaf get their bodies (more or less) for free in order to sell lenses....
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=145960\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Anyone from Leaf or Sinar want to comment on the free (more or less) bodies that you're getting from Franke & Heidecke? Some one here is "sure" this is the case. We don't think anyone here would just engage in wild speculation and post it as fact, do we?
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thsinar

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #45 on: October 14, 2007, 08:33:18 pm »

The IT company is named Cosmo, and the undisclosed amount of debt lies higher than the purchase price. In Japan such information, as well as all information about any company (turnover, debt, employees, financial situation, solvability, etc ...) can be obtained by making an official demand to a special governement agency.

Thierry

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As far as the financial resources required for Phase One to merge with Mamiya, the camera/optical division of Mamiya was sold last year to an IT company in Japan for less than one million dollars in cash (plus transfer of an undisclosed amount of debt).

[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=145935\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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Thierry Hagenauer
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thsinar

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #46 on: October 14, 2007, 08:47:23 pm »

No, we don't!

As a matter of fact, without more precisions, this is simply not true, respectively impossible.

Best regards,
Thierry


Quote
Anyone from Leaf or Sinar want to comment on the free (more or less) bodies that you're getting from Franke & Heidecke? Some one here is "sure" this is the case. We don't think anyone here would just engage in wild speculation and post it as fact, do we?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146025\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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Thierry Hagenauer
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Natasa Stojsic

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #47 on: October 14, 2007, 08:56:48 pm »

Quote
Hi
I don't think Mamiya & Phase have to merge. But they could do package deals, If you bought a P45+
you get a 645 AFDII body plus a discounted lens. [a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146012\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

That is similar to what I got and I only purchased 'baby-Phase'  P20+
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TechTalk

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #48 on: October 14, 2007, 09:17:13 pm »

Quote
No, we don't!

As a matter of fact, without more precisions, this is simply not true, respectively impossible.

Best regards,
Thierry
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146028\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Sorry Thierry, but I just can't resist flushing out wild statements like this. I thought you should shine a little light of truth on this in case some poor fool actually believed it!
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TechTalk

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #49 on: October 14, 2007, 09:45:12 pm »

Quote
The IT company is named Cosmo, and the undisclosed amount of debt lies higher than the purchase price. In Japan such information, as well as all information about any company (turnover, debt, employees, financial situation, solvability, etc ...) can be obtained by making an official demand to a special governement agency.

Thierry
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146026\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Yes, Mamiya was required to disclose a fair amount in their public statement at the time of the sale to Cosmo. The financials were not pretty. In the last fiscal year before the sale, just under 18 million dollars (U.S.) in sales and a net loss of just under 7 million dollars.
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TechTalk

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #50 on: October 14, 2007, 10:21:42 pm »

Quote
(Continuing from my previous post) Then add in what we think we know:

1.  I believe I saw a statement from Michael that Phase has a plan.

2.  Michael has categorically stated that resurrecting Contax is not a possibility.

3.  I think I saw Michael state several months ago that Phase was going to be available on the Hy6 platform.

From a practical point of view, that pretty much leaves possiblities 1, 3a, and 5.  I view 5 as quite unlikely.  And, not to denigrate those who really like Mamiya, but there are many folk who would view a Phase/Mamiya combination as rather like a Rolls Royce/Yugo deal to put Rolls Royce engines in Yugos.

That would seem to leave a Phase/Hy6 deal as by far the most probable.
[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Michael said "Finally, Phase has announced a partnering with Mamiya. Discussions are still ongoing, but the intention is that Phase One's technology will be used in upcoming Mamiya digital camera projects." Hey, "Announced a partnering" is what was reported here folks.

Check the Sept. 26, 2006 entry here...  [a href=\"http://www.llvj.com/new/new-2006.shtml]Phase One Announcement Link[/url]
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thsinar

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #51 on: October 14, 2007, 10:22:23 pm »

Nothing to be sorry, I would have rectified by my own in any case.

Thierry

Quote
Sorry Thierry, but I just can't resist flushing out wild statements like this. I thought you should shine a little light of truth on this in case some poor fool actually believed it!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146034\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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Thierry Hagenauer
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thsinar

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #52 on: October 14, 2007, 10:25:45 pm »

Pretty close to the net debt, once exisiting stock has been accounted for.

Thierry

Quote
Yes, Mamiya was required to disclose a fair amount in their public statement at the time of the sale to Cosmo. The financials were not pretty. In the last fiscal year before the sale, just under 18 million dollars (U.S.) in sales and a net loss of just under 7 million dollars.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146036\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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Thierry Hagenauer
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jpjespersen

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #53 on: October 14, 2007, 11:07:41 pm »

PHASE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE ROLLEI HY6!
There are no questions about this.  It is a fact.  Phase is not worried about anything, nor will it start manufacturing camera's, IMO
« Last Edit: October 14, 2007, 11:08:48 pm by jpjespersen »
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Graham Mitchell

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #54 on: October 14, 2007, 11:11:17 pm »

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PHASE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE ROLLEI HY6!
There are no questions about this.  It is a fact.  Phase is not worried about anything, nor will it start manufacturing camera's, IMO
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146047\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

If I don't ask it then someone else will: your source?
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thsinar

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #55 on: October 14, 2007, 11:13:08 pm »

Yes, I couldn't agree more.

Thierry

Quote
Every business also has a break-even point. Below a certain volume of sales, you lose money. Above a certain volume of sales you make money. The problem with medium-format camera sales is there is not enough volume for any company to make the break-even point. The only way to survive is to combine that activity with something else, that when combined will make money (Hasselblad). Otherwise you stop production (Bronica, Contax, Fuji), stay afloat with other activities that supply needed capital (Mamiya, Rollei) or find partners to invest capital that keep you breathing (Mamiya, Rollei). It's basic financial reality and a business can only lose money for so long before creditors or a corporate board gives it a dose of reality.

[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146015\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
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Thierry Hagenauer
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BernardLanguillier

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #56 on: October 15, 2007, 01:01:59 am »

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What's the future hold for Phase One?

I've no idea how many Pxx's ended up on the back of Hasselblad H cameras, but that door closing must hurt. And what rabbits can they possibly pull from hats to keep the upgrade cycle rolling? The IQ gap between MF digital and 35mm digital seems to be narrowing, but the price gap is as wide as ever. Plus their Capture One software doesn't seem to enjoy quite the gold standard reputation it once did, Hasselblad are beta testing a new raw converter and I believe their latest backs have gone the same heat sink/no fan route that used to be a unique advantage for Phase One.

As the owner of a P45+ I've a vested interest in their continued survival, but it's difficult to see many glad tidings for Phase One at the moment.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=145879\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I guess that the MFDB market has never been very stable, but right now appears to be a clear peak in instability.

Regardless of the fact that I am not really shopping for new high end gear right now, I would probably wait at least half a year even if I were. The questions I would like to get answers to are:

1. Will the Hy6 be usable with Phase backs or not?

2. What will the next generation sensors look like? I personnally feel that there will never be a real need for more performance than these backs will deliver, since they will probably be on par with 4x5 at higher ISOs,

3. Will mamiya release a ZD33 back with the Dalsa 33 MP sensor equipping the Leaf 75? Considering the position Dalsa is in with Leaf likely to go Kodak next, and Sinar only shipping small volumes, I'd think they would be willing to work with Mamiya,

4. Will Nikon release a new high end camera to match their newly released super digital wide zooms (14-24 and 24-70). The 1ds3 doesn't impress me image quality wise (mostly for lens related reasons and Canon's strong AA filter philosophy) but Nikon could IMHO significantly close the gap with 30MP class MFDB,

5. Will Pentax proceed with the 31 MP 645D?

All in all, I'll probably have to wait until next year's Kina to get satisfactory answers to these questions... so I'll wait one year.

Regards,
Bernard

Morgan_Moore

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #57 on: October 15, 2007, 02:40:44 am »

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... so I'll wait one year.

[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146058\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

so thats a year being annoyed whater annoyance drives your desire to upgrade

buying a p25 and h2 for $10k now and selling for $7k in a year or two aint a bad thing

Hey - H2 s might go UP in value

S
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Sam Morgan Moore Bristol UK

BernardLanguillier

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Where To For Phase One?
« Reply #58 on: October 15, 2007, 03:37:29 am »

Quote
so thats a year being annoyed whater annoyance drives your desire to upgrade

buying a p25 and h2 for $10k now and selling for $7k in a year or two aint a bad thing

Hey - H2 s might go UP in value

S
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146061\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Yep, but I already have a Mamiya ZD that works perfectly fine for me in 90% of cases.

Besides, I don't believe that a H2 + P25 can be bought for 10K$... at least I have never seen such deals anywhere. The 25 alone typically go for at least 12K$.

Regards,
Bernard

Morgan_Moore

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« Reply #59 on: October 15, 2007, 03:50:43 am »

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Yep, but I already have a Mamiya ZD that works perfectly fine for me in 90% of cases.

Besides, I don't believe that a H2 + P25 can be bought for 10K$... at least I have never seen such deals anywhere. The 25 alone typically go for at least 12K$.

Regards,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=146064\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


 price wise I was painting with a broad brush probably more akin to (UK)

S
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Sam Morgan Moore Bristol UK
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