National Parks affected by the climate changes

[TechTalk]

The possible highest in the UK is now forecast to be 107F on Tuesday the 19th. Quote from the director of the Met office this morning. "These extreme temperatures are only explained as a consequence of global warming". There are fierce fires affecting many countries on the North of the Mediterranean. Portugal, Spain, France, Greece are all affected by the consequences of extreme weather.

The arguments that the rise in temperature can be beneficial don't hold up. As global temperature rises the weather tends more towards periods of destructive extremes as climate systems become unstable.

https://apnews.com/article/wildfires-france-fires-heat-waves

Europe broils in heat wave that fuels fires in France, Spain - Excerpts Below...

Associated Press (AP) - July 18, 2022 - Bob Edme and John Leicester

A heat wave broiling Europe spilled northward Monday to Britain and fueled ferocious wildfires in Spain and France, which evacuated thousands of people and scrambled water-bombing planes and firefighters to battle flames in tinder-dry forests.

Two people were killed in the blazes in Spain that its prime minister linked to global warming, saying, “Climate change kills.”

That toll comes on top of the hundreds of heat-related deaths reported in the Iberian peninsula, as high temperatures have gripped the continent in recent days and triggered wildfires from Portugal to the Balkans. Some areas, including northern Italy, are also experiencing extended droughts. Climate change makes such life-threatening extremes less of a rarity — and heat waves have come even to places like Britain, which braced for possible record-breaking temperatures.

The hot weather in the U.K. was expected to be so severe this week that train operators warned it could warp the rails and some schools set up wading pools to help children cool off.

In France, heat records were broken and swirling hot winds complicated firefighting in the country’s southwest...

Climate scientists say heat waves are more intense, more frequent and longer because of climate change — and coupled with droughts have made wildfires harder to fight. They say climate change will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

“Climate change kills,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Monday during a visit to the Extremadura region, the site of three major blazes. “It kills people, it kills our ecosystems and biodiversity.”

Teresa Ribera, Spain’s minister for ecological transition, described her country as “literally under fire” as she attended talks on climate change in Berlin.

She warned of “terrifying prospects still for the days to come” — after more than 10 days of temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), cooling only moderately at night.

At least 748 heat-related deaths have been reported in the heat wave in Spain and neighboring Portugal, where temperatures reached 47 C (117 F) earlier this month.

The heat wave in Spain was forecast to ease on Tuesday, but the respite will be brief as temperatures rise again on Wednesday, especially in the dry western Extremadura region.

In Britain, officials have issued the first-ever extreme heat warning, and the weather service forecast that the record high of 38.7 C (101.7 F), set in 2019, could be shattered.

“Forty-one isn’t off the cards,” said Met Office CEO Penelope Endersby. “We’ve even got some 43s in the model, but we’re hoping it won’t be as high as that.”...

[More at link above with many photos]

[Robert Roaldi]

People don't trust hypocrites and phonies.

That's rich, coming from a Trump supporter.

[Robert Roaldi]

If you want to fix that, I can delete this message and the previous one as well.

I removed my earlier posts and added a new one. I'd hate for an archivist to get the post sequence wrong. 

[DavidJ]

Much of the infrastructure of the UK has been built on the assumption that it has a temperate climate. For example the railways were built to withstand a temperature range of -10C to +35C. Today the temperatures in the Midlands and East of England are forecast to exceed 40C. As a consequence rail traffic on the East coast mainline has been suspended today. This is a very busy line that connects London with the cities of the North East and Scotland. There are speed restrictions and reduced services over most of the network. Yesterday a busy airport was closed for a time because of heat damage to a runway.

I write this to make the point that extreme weather caused by global warming has economic consequences. Another example - cereal crops are being damaged and were already reduced because spring in the UK has been exceptionally dry.

https://apnews.com/article/wildfires-france-fires-heat-waves

Europe broils in heat wave that fuels fires in France, Spain - Excerpts Below...

Associated Press (AP) - July 18, 2022 - Bob Edme and John Leicester

A heat wave broiling Europe spilled northward Monday to Britain and fueled ferocious wildfires in Spain and France, which evacuated thousands of people and scrambled water-bombing planes and firefighters to battle flames in tinder-dry forests.

Two people were killed in the blazes in Spain that its prime minister linked to global warming, saying, “Climate change kills.”

That toll comes on top of the hundreds of heat-related deaths reported in the Iberian peninsula, as high temperatures have gripped the continent in recent days and triggered wildfires from Portugal to the Balkans. Some areas, including northern Italy, are also experiencing extended droughts. Climate change makes such life-threatening extremes less of a rarity — and heat waves have come even to places like Britain, which braced for possible record-breaking temperatures.

The hot weather in the U.K. was expected to be so severe this week that train operators warned it could warp the rails and some schools set up wading pools to help children cool off.

In France, heat records were broken and swirling hot winds complicated firefighting in the country’s southwest...

Climate scientists say heat waves are more intense, more frequent and longer because of climate change — and coupled with droughts have made wildfires harder to fight. They say climate change will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

“Climate change kills,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Monday during a visit to the Extremadura region, the site of three major blazes. “It kills people, it kills our ecosystems and biodiversity.”

Teresa Ribera, Spain’s minister for ecological transition, described her country as “literally under fire” as she attended talks on climate change in Berlin.

She warned of “terrifying prospects still for the days to come” — after more than 10 days of temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), cooling only moderately at night.

At least 748 heat-related deaths have been reported in the heat wave in Spain and neighboring Portugal, where temperatures reached 47 C (117 F) earlier this month.

The heat wave in Spain was forecast to ease on Tuesday, but the respite will be brief as temperatures rise again on Wednesday, especially in the dry western Extremadura region.

In Britain, officials have issued the first-ever extreme heat warning, and the weather service forecast that the record high of 38.7 C (101.7 F), set in 2019, could be shattered.

“Forty-one isn’t off the cards,” said Met Office CEO Penelope Endersby. “We’ve even got some 43s in the model, but we’re hoping it won’t be as high as that.”...

[More at link above with many photos]

[Manoli]

Concerned about climate change, then don't fly a helicopter which pumps out massive amounts of carbon. Personally, I'm waiting the arrival of the sixth ice age.

Bud just discovered Leica. Leica can do that to the ‘arrivistes’ - gives them a feeling of superiority and encourages superciliousness in abundance. Old Leica diehards know better.

[Manoli]

ITM, UK just recorded its hottest day in history 40.2C and on track to reach 41C (104.36F and 105.8F).

Anyone who remembers the heatwave in the UK back in 1976 can compare it to today’s heat map.
Not, IMO, time to be ‘cute’.

[Ray]

I'm posting the following because I'm concerned about the damaging psychological effects that the alarm about heat waves, and their connection with climate change, might have on the young and the gullible.

In the current, very gradual global warming warming phase of around 1 degrees C during the past 150 years, it is to be expected that the occasional heat wave during the present times, might break the historical record of recorded temperatures going back as far as 150 years, especially considering the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI), which is due to the rapid develpment of towns, cities, airports, factories and roads which absorb far more heat than grasslands and forests.

However, what many people, perhaps most people, don't seem to understand is that far more people, world-wide, die from extreme cold than extreme heat. Therefore, as the planet gradually warms, one would logically expect that the increased number of deaths from heatwaves would be far less than the reduced number of deaths from extreme cold.

The following study is from the Lancet Public Health, which appears to be a well-respected publication.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/the-lancet-public-health/about/aims-and-scope
"As the global leader for essential original research in public health practice, outcomes, and policy making worldwide, The Lancet Public Health provides a clear, independent perspective. The journal is committed to tackling the most pressing issues across all aspects of public health and has a strong commitment to using science as an important means to improve health equity and social justice.
The Lancet Public Health takes a broad and inclusive approach to public health and emphasises interdisciplinary research."

Here's a summary of their findings, comparing deaths from heat waves with cold spells.

"This study provides a country-wide evaluation of the health impact of non-optimal temperature, with a comprehensive assessment of mortality risks across the 37,453 small census areas of England and Wales. Our findings indicate that, on average, an excess of 791 deaths associated with heat and 60,753 deaths associated with cold occur every year in England and Wales, corresponding to a standardised excess mortality rate of 1·57 deaths per 100,000 person-years with heat and 122·34 deaths per 100,000 person-years with cold."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00138-3/fulltext

For those who are too lazy to read the study, attached is a graph. 

[Alan Klein]

Thanks Ray for the data for GB.  Apparently, experts in the USA differ on this matter which is why I suspect many scientific claims today.  Just being a scientist doesn't mean they got the facts right. A lot of people here fault me for my doubts when I question "experts". 

In any case, NOAA says more people die from heat, and the CDC, our Covid experts as well, say it's cold that kills more people.  So what's the truth?  There are many factors to be considered; they can tilt it any way they want.  Considering the gas shutoff from Russia this winter, I think there's going to be a spike in deaths in Europe from cold this winter. 

NOAA’s take: heat is the bigger killer
NOAA’s official source of weather-related deaths, a monthly publication called Storm Data, is heavily skewed toward heat-related deaths. Over the 30-year period 1988 – 2017, NOAA classified an average of 134 deaths per year as being heat-related, and just 30 per year as cold-related—a more than a factor of four difference. According to a 2005 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Heat Mortality Versus Cold Mortality: A Study of Conflicting Databases in the United States, Storm Data is often based on media reports, and tends to be biased towards media/public awareness of an event.

CDC’s take: cold is the bigger killer
In contrast, the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality Database, which is based on death certificates, indicates the reverse—about twice as many people die of “excessive cold” conditions in a given year than of “excessive heat.” According to a 2014 study by the CDC, approximately 1,300 deaths per year from 2006 to 2010 were coded as resulting from extreme cold exposure, and 670 deaths per year from extreme heat. However, both of these numbers are likely to be underestimated. According to the 2016 study, The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States, “It is generally accepted that direct attribution underestimates the number of people who die from temperature extremes.” For example, during the 1995 Chicago heat wave, only 465 death certificates had heat as a contributing cause, while excess mortality figures showed that close to 700 people died as a result of the heat (Figure 2).
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Which-Kills-More-People-Extreme-Heat-or-Extreme-Cold

[Alan Klein]

Of course, climate scientists would never acknowledge cold causes more deaths because that would justify the desirability
 of warmer climate and Global Warming.

[Robert Roaldi]

Of course, climate scientists would never acknowledge cold causes more deaths because that would justify the desirability
 of warmer climate and Global Warming.

Maybe they can warm up by the wild fires.

[Alan Klein]

Everything is blamed on climate change.  It's too convenient when you're selling something.   There's always been wild fires.  It's just that when populations were low, no one noticed much.  Now people move into fire zones.  Of course, they move on to the tops of hills so they have a good view.  That's the most expensive property and most dangerous.  Fire rises.  Duh. 

[TechTalk]

...Duh.

[Manoli]

It never crossed my mind that the efforts to combat climate change are to limit excess deaths, regrettable as they are, as opposed to protecting our environment.

[Alan Klein]

It never crossed my mind that the efforts to combat climate change are to limit excess deaths, regrettable as they are, as opposed to protecting our environment.

It seems strange that people are more concerned about the death of polar bears than people.  Isn't that misplaced priorities?

[Manoli]

.
"This study provides a country-wide evaluation of the health impact of non-optimal temperature, with a comprehensive assessment of mortality risks across the 37,453 small census areas of England and Wales. Our findings indicate that, on average, an excess of 791 deaths associated with heat and 60,753 deaths associated with cold occur every year in England and Wales, corresponding to a standardised excess mortality rate of 1·57 deaths per 100,000 person-years with heat and 122·34 deaths per 100,000 person-years with cold."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00138-3/fulltext

Ray,

Have you ever been to the UK? I assume not, ‘cos otherwise you’d know that ir’s the beneficiary of a miserable climate - cold, wet, humid a dearth of sunshine (such that it’s oft been mooted that bread should have added VitaminD to make up for a nationwide deficiency) - where else would one sing ‘mud,mud glorious mud …’?

Checking google, as at 2019 (pre-covid) in a country of 67 million, there were 219,000 homeless households (some 260,000 individuals, approx 0.388% of the population.)

Given their undoubted poor health and unfortunate circumstances, no, those figures don’’t surprise me. Sad, very sad and you may not have noticed that there’s a bugger’s row going on exactly over this issue (poverty, soup kitchens, diminishing health care etc) which the current government have done their utmost to sweep under the carpet.

Whether this is relevant on the context of climate change, either real or perceived, is entirely another story.

[Robert Roaldi]

...  It's too convenient when you're selling something.  ...

What, pay tell oh wise one, are they selling?

[Robert Roaldi]

Of course, climate scientists would never acknowledge cold causes more deaths because that would justify the desirability
 of warmer climate and Global Warming.

You say that by way of asserting that it's true, when in fact it's an asinine statement.

Good thing you don't live in London UK, quite a few fires raging there today I see on the news. Maybe we could airlift all those people who are freezing to death to London for the summer.

[Jonathan Cross]

2 quotes from the BBC in the UK today:

A large swathe of eastern England, from Surrey to South Yorkshire, saw temperatures between 39C and 40C, and 29 weather stations exceeded the previous UK temperature record.

Met Office chief of science and technology Prof Stephen Belcher said exceeding 40C was "virtually impossible" in an undisrupted climate, but due to climate change "driven by greenhouse gasses" such extreme temperatures had become a reality.  He said if there continued to be high emissions "we could see temperatures like this every three years".

Jonathan

[TechTalk]

I'm posting the following because I'm concerned about the damaging psychological effects that the alarm about heat waves, and their connection with climate change, might have on the young and the gullible.

Well, it's awfully kind of you to volunteer your time to protect "the young and the gullible" from "damaging psychological effects". So when Grandma dies from heat stroke, we can comfort little Suzie with statistics showing that more people die from cold to ease her psychological pain.

On second thought, children actually respond pretty well to being told the truth at a level they can understand. Children have managed to live thru wars, plagues, and disasters of all sort thru the years. What they might need some psychological protection from are con men selling conspiracies and cults.

[Alan Klein]

What, pay tell oh wise one, are they selling?

everything from EVs to research money to carbon credits. 

It reminds me of the quip somebody made back in the days when poverty programs had gotten very popular and everyone was getting rich off of them.   "there's a lot of money to be made in poverty"