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Author Topic: Cars - history, now and future  (Read 6635 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #80 on: January 16, 2022, 07:24:24 pm »

My main duties were driving the tractor for hay baling and livestock operations, feeding livestock, and being the catcher and stacker for storing bales in a hay loft. The latter quickly taught me the weight difference in bales depending on what we baled that day. Bales of straw, grass, and alfalfa are much different in weight.
...
Driving and hauling with a tractor is very different from driving a car or truck. I got a lot of instruction on when, where, and why to use each gear; when and how to use the brake when hauling; and selecting the right path to steer. This was not only to get the job done efficiently, but to minimize safety risks as well—for both of us, as he was generally in a wagon attached directly to the tractor or behind the baler whenever I was driving. The primary safety mechanism in place was his knowledge of what the limits were for load hauling across different parts of his farm for each tractor.

Working with bales of hay can be dangerous even today. Last year, a local farmer was delivering hay bales to a nearby horse farm where my friend rides, and as he was unloading the bales, one bale fell on him and killed him.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #81 on: January 17, 2022, 09:47:57 am »

Working with bales of hay can be dangerous even today. Last year, a local farmer was delivering hay bales to a nearby horse farm where my friend rides, and as he was unloading the bales, one bale fell on him and killed him.
That's pretty awful.  So sorry for your friend's death.

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #82 on: January 17, 2022, 10:16:39 am »

My friend is OK, she just reported the accident.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #83 on: January 17, 2022, 10:50:39 am »

My friend is OK, she just reported the accident.
Oh, I misread it.  It was the farmer who died.  Glad your friend is OK and sorry about the farmer.

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #84 on: January 17, 2022, 07:44:29 pm »

The stress from covid and economic hardship creates all kinds of depressions and despicable desparados.

Quote
A full page advertisement in Sunday's New York Times took aim at Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" software, calling it "the worst software ever sold by a Fortune 500 company" and offering $10,000, the same price as the software itself to the first person who could name "another commercial product from a Fortune 500 company that has a critical malfunction every 8 minutes."

The ad was taken out by The Dawn Project, a recently founded organization aiming to ban unsafe software from safety critical systems that can be targeted by military-style hackers, as part of a campaign to remove Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) from public roads until it has "1,000 times fewer critical malfunctions."  The founder of the advocacy group, Dan O'Dowd, is also the CEO of Green Hill Software, a company that builds operating systems and programming tools for embedded safety and security systems.
 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/york-times-ad-warns-against-214027879.html

Dave Lee, a respected youtuber on Tesla and other technological and financial matters was compelled to post his own take on the hater and his $150,000 ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e07H2kE6l7k  10 minutes long, worth every second. If in time crunch, you can speed it up to 1.25.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #85 on: January 17, 2022, 08:26:15 pm »

The stress from covid and economic hardship creates all kinds of depressions and despicable desparados.
 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/york-times-ad-warns-against-214027879.html

Dave Lee, a respected youtuber on Tesla and other technological and financial matters was compelled to post his own take on the hater and his $150,000 ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e07H2kE6l7k  10 minutes long, worth every second. If in time crunch, you can speed it up to 1.25.

I read the article and watched the video. The person who took out the ad is a competitor and it appears to me that he's looking for publicity for his own software.  His software cannot be hacked and is in use in American military systems like the B1A bomber and F35 jet.  His argument is FSD can be hacked. 

He also claims that FSD is unsafe on the roads which seems to be somewhat supported by others.  Frankly, from the FSD videos I saw, it's not up to driving safely on its own.  California is reviewing the license granted to Tesla because of safety issues and Consumer Reports will be testing it on their own soon. 

David Lee seems to like Tesla.  So his anger at the ad seemed biased. His video didn't make sense in some areas.  The NY Times where the ad was placed does not require open discourse from the ad placer or to reveal so called conflicts of interest.  It's known that the ad placer's company provides software for BMW electric cars and other ICE cars across the industry as well as the aforementioned US military.  Also, the Times cannot editorialize ads.  It's not their business and they don't get involved usually.  This is all about two big guys competing with each other.

 

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #86 on: January 17, 2022, 09:38:18 pm »

I read the article and watched the video. The person who took out the ad is a competitor and it appears to me that he's looking for publicity for his own software.  His software cannot be hacked and is in use in American military systems like the B1A bomber and F35 jet.  His argument is FSD can be hacked. 

He also claims that FSD is unsafe on the roads which seems to be somewhat supported by others.  Frankly, from the FSD videos I saw, it's not up to driving safely on its own.  California is reviewing the license granted to Tesla because of safety issues and Consumer Reports will be testing it on their own soon. 

David Lee seems to like Tesla.  So his anger at the ad seemed biased. His video didn't make sense in some areas.  The NY Times where the ad was placed does not require open discourse from the ad placer or to reveal so called conflicts of interest.  It's known that the ad placer's company provides software for BMW electric cars and other ICE cars across the industry as well as the aforementioned US military.  Also, the Times cannot editorialize ads.  It's not their business and they don't get involved usually.  This is all about two big guys competing with each other.

I pointed out more than once that the current FSD is not a fully functioning software, it is a Beta testing version.
When you drive a car using FSD Beta, you have access to the steering wheel, mirrors, screen display and pedals, and you can take over at anytime.
Compare it to the current practice of parents in USA teaching their offsprings how to drive a car. The young beta driver is a ticking time bomb compared to the Tesla FSD. If the kid makes a mistake, the parent could grab a wheel, but he can't press the brake or gas pedal to escape from a precarious situation. That practice should be banned before criticizing autonomous software. Most other developed countries don't allow teaching someone to drive without a second set of pedals and teaching certificate. The FSD in its current version has a better track record than the teenage driving learners.

Why do we allow teenagers driving with adult supervision in technically inadequate vehicles? The reason why we allow teenagers to drive with learners permit is that they need to learn how to drive. Similarly, FSD needs to be driven and collect more miles in order to learn how to drive better.

The stats comparing the driving accidents with or without FSD are quite impressive. In Q4 2021, Tesla has recorded one crash per 4.31 million miles driven using Autopilot (or FSD). Compare it with NHTSA data which shows one automotive crash per 484,000 miles driven, so even FSD Beta in its current form is about 9 times less deadly than an average drive without FSD. In addition, the FSD accident stats are improving every quarter. In other words, NHTSA and the Green Hill Software dude criticizing Tesla's FSD are in effect advocating killings by drivers without FSD or Autopilot.
 
Quote
In 2019, almost 2,400 teens in the United States aged 13–19 were killed1,2 and about 258,000 were treated in emergency departments for injuries suffered in motor vehicle crashes.1 That means that every day, about seven teens died due to motor vehicle crashes, and hundreds more were injured. In addition, motor vehicle crash deaths among teens 15–19 years of age resulted in about $4.8 billion in medical and work loss costs for crashes that occurred in 2018.

The risk of motor vehicle crashes is higher among teens aged 16–19 than among any other age group. In fact, per mile driven, teen drivers in this age group are nearly three times as likely as drivers aged 20 or older to be in a fatal crash.

https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/teen_drivers/teendrivers_factsheet.html
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #87 on: January 17, 2022, 10:06:31 pm »

I pointed out more than once that the current FSD is not a fully functioning software, it is a Beta testing version.
When you drive a car using FSD Beta, you have access to the steering wheel, mirrors, screen display and pedals, and you can take over at anytime.
Compare it to the current practice of parents in USA teaching their offsprings how to drive a car. The young beta driver is a ticking time bomb compared to the Tesla FSD. If the kid makes a mistake, the parent could grab a wheel, but he can't press the brake or gas pedal to escape from a precarious situation. That practice should be banned before criticizing autonomous software. Most other developed countries don't allow teaching someone to drive without a second set of pedals and teaching certificate. The FSD in its current version has a better track record than the teenage driving learners.

Why do we allow teenagers driving with adult supervision in technically inadequate vehicles? The reason why we allow teenagers to drive with learners permit is that they need to learn how to drive. Similarly, FSD needs to be driven and collect more miles in order to learn how to drive better.

The stats comparing the driving accidents with or without FSD are quite impressive. In Q4 2021, Tesla has recorded one crash per 4.31 million miles driven using Autopilot (or FSD). Compare it with NHTSA data which shows one automotive crash per 484,000 miles driven, so even FSD Beta in its current form is about 9 times less deadly than an average drive without FSD. In addition, the FSD accident stats are improving every quarter. In other words, NHTSA and the Green Hill Software dude criticizing Tesla's FSD are in effect advocating killings by drivers without FSD or Autopilot.
 
https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/teen_drivers/teendrivers_factsheet.html

If the FSD misbehaves, do we ground it for a week?
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LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #88 on: January 17, 2022, 11:16:46 pm »

If the FSD misbehaves, do we ground it for a week?

Yes, and also take away the Internet privileges.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #89 on: January 18, 2022, 01:00:34 am »

I pointed out more than once that the current FSD is not a fully functioning software, it is a Beta testing version.
When you drive a car using FSD Beta, you have access to the steering wheel, mirrors, screen display and pedals, and you can take over at anytime.
Compare it to the current practice of parents in USA teaching their offsprings how to drive a car. The young beta driver is a ticking time bomb compared to the Tesla FSD. If the kid makes a mistake, the parent could grab a wheel, but he can't press the brake or gas pedal to escape from a precarious situation. That practice should be banned before criticizing autonomous software. Most other developed countries don't allow teaching someone to drive without a second set of pedals and teaching certificate. The FSD in its current version has a better track record than the teenage driving learners.

Why do we allow teenagers driving with adult supervision in technically inadequate vehicles? The reason why we allow teenagers to drive with learners permit is that they need to learn how to drive. Similarly, FSD needs to be driven and collect more miles in order to learn how to drive better.

The stats comparing the driving accidents with or without FSD are quite impressive. In Q4 2021, Tesla has recorded one crash per 4.31 million miles driven using Autopilot (or FSD). Compare it with NHTSA data which shows one automotive crash per 484,000 miles driven, so even FSD Beta in its current form is about 9 times less deadly than an average drive without FSD. In addition, the FSD accident stats are improving every quarter. In other words, NHTSA and the Green Hill Software dude criticizing Tesla's FSD are in effect advocating killings by drivers without FSD or Autopilot.
 
https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/teen_drivers/teendrivers_factsheet.html

Well, one advantage of FSD over teenagers is they don't speed or drink. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #90 on: January 26, 2022, 08:41:01 pm »

As expected, today Tesla released a record Q4 earnings report, beating all estimates.
Perhaps the most important thing of the entire presentation was that Elon Musk sees even more potential in the autonomous driving and Optimus robot than in the new line of cars. Consequently, Cybertruck and smaller Model 2 (or call it Model A or Q) are now pushed into 2023 and 2024.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-beats-fourth-quarter-estimates-222259665.html
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James Clark

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #91 on: January 27, 2022, 09:21:23 pm »

Elon Musk sees even more potential in the autonomous driving and Optimus robot than in the new line of cars.

 ::) Elon is such a doofus sometimes.
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Eric Myrvaagnes

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #92 on: January 27, 2022, 11:20:00 pm »

I'm waiting for an adult-sized autonomous driving powered tricycle.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #93 on: January 27, 2022, 11:45:25 pm »

I'm waiting for an adult-sized autonomous driving powered tricycle.

Below is the Arcimoto, a three wheel adult-sized tricycle, powered by battery. At this time, it is steered by a human, but they are planning to add a third-party autonomous driving software - possibly from Tesla, when they release it.

https://www.arcimoto.com
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #94 on: February 01, 2022, 09:46:11 pm »

Here's a story about the Tesla recall, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-recall-2022-self-driving-software-rolling-stop-54000-vehicles/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=150441965.

Why do they have to recall them, can't they just download the new software and reboot?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #95 on: February 01, 2022, 09:54:22 pm »

Here's a story about the Tesla recall, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-recall-2022-self-driving-software-rolling-stop-54000-vehicles/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=150441965.

Why do they have to recall them, can't they just download the new software and reboot?
What's interesting about the car not stopping at stop signs, the reason for the recall,  was that the video I saw on Youtube showing the auto-drive program working in real-time, it showed the car not stopping at a crosswalk when two people were in it by the curb waiting to cross.  Clearly a violation and issue.  I wonder if the two issues re related?

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #96 on: February 01, 2022, 10:07:25 pm »

What's interesting about the car not stopping at stop signs, the reason for the recall,  was that the video I saw on Youtube showing the auto-drive program working in real-time, it showed the car not stopping at a crosswalk when two people were in it by the curb waiting to cross.  Clearly a violation and issue.  I wonder if the two issues re related?

It was a software instruction issue, the programmers thought it makes more sense to just slow down when the sensors don't detect any moving objects in the intersection. Common sense, but paradoxically a clear violation of US and Canadian traffic rules. They already made the software change which will be downloaded over the air to Tesla cars with FSD.

IMO, the 4-stop rule on an intersection is one of the stupidest rules. Made by idiots for idiots. In Europe, you see very few full stop signs, most intersections have Yield signs or roundabouts.

Maybe once most cars use some kind of Autosteer and motion sensors, they could do away with the full stop signs.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #97 on: February 01, 2022, 10:15:45 pm »

It was a software instruction issue, the programmers thought it makes more sense to just slow down when the sensors don't detect any moving objects in the intersection. Common sense, but paradoxically a clear violation of US and Canadian traffic rules. They already made the software change which will be downloaded over the air to Tesla cars with FSD.

IMO, the 4-stop rule on an intersection is one of the stupidest rules. Made by idiots for idiots. In Europe, you see very few full stop signs, most intersections have Yield signs or roundabouts.

Maybe once most cars use some kind of Autosteer and motion sensors, they could do away with the full stop signs.
From what I heard, most Europeans treat Stop signs like Yield signs anyway.  So they got rid of them  ;) 

In any case, what will the new software do?  Here are the rules for a four-way stop?  I think there's a lot of guesswork that goes on depending where you drive.
https://www.topdriver.com/education-blog/4-rules-4-way-stops/#:~:text=When%20two%20vehicles%20arrive%20at,right%20of%20them%20have%20passed.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #98 on: February 01, 2022, 10:16:42 pm »

It was a software instruction issue, the programmers thought it makes more sense to just slow down when the sensors don't detect any moving objects in the intersection. Common sense, but paradoxically a clear violation of US and Canadian traffic rules. They already made the software change which will be downloaded over the air to Tesla cars with FSD.

IMO, the 4-stop rule on an intersection is one of the stupidest rules. Made by idiots for idiots. In Europe, you see very few full stop signs, most intersections have Yield signs or roundabouts.

Maybe once most cars use some kind of Autosteer and motion sensors, they could do away with the full stop signs.

Four-way stops are a bane for traffic engineers too, they don't want them. Many of them are installed because of neighbourhood citizen demands. Environment measurement in the immediate areas near the 4-way stops show much more pollution than elsewhere, and they cause rush hours to last longer. Here in Ottawa we're getting lots of roundabouts now. There was some protest at first, how they would confuse people and would cause more accidents, none of which happened. My opinion is that if you can't figure out how to get through a roundabout, it's time to take yourself off the road and take some refresher driver training.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #99 on: February 01, 2022, 10:25:54 pm »

Four-way stops are a bane for traffic engineers too, they don't want them. Many of them are installed because of neighbourhood citizen demands. Environment measurement in the immediate areas near the 4-way stops show much more pollution than elsewhere, and they cause rush hours to last longer. Here in Ottawa we're getting lots of roundabouts now. There was some protest at first, how they would confuse people and would cause more accidents, none of which happened. My opinion is that if you can't figure out how to get through a roundabout, it's time to take yourself off the road and take some refresher driver training.
I thought roundabouts were mainly to eliminate traffic lights.  In residential areas, there's not enough room to make roundabouts and the four-way stops are there because it's cheaper than traffic lights. You could use yields on one street and stops on the other.  But I think there are more accidents that way.  A four-way stop forces everyone to stop and look before proceeding.  People don't pay attention to yields.  Apparently, neither do Teslas. :)
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