Cars - history, now and future

[Peter McLennan]

EVs will take over the market quickly for reasons above and beyond the almighty dollar.
Smooth as glass, quiet as a whisper and, best of all...

FUN


.

[Alan Klein]

Because the insurance companies can get away with it.
The good news is that Tesla insurance should be cheaper for most drivers. It is now available just in a handful of states, but it will be gradually rolled out to all states in US and hopefully also to Canada.

As to your other question about the actual operational cost savings, use the supplied calculator. The more miles you drive, the quicker the ROI.  In addition, you'll be saving on the maintenance. No oil and filter changes, less frequent brakes jobs, no belt re-tensioning, no spark plug changes, no radiator fluids and flushes, and more. Thousands of dollars saved over the life of the vehicle.

The autonomous driving option (various versions and capabilities by different brands) can make the travelling less tiring and save even your life.   

Could the higher insurance cost be tied to the autonomous driving option?  There's a lot of nervousness about safety.  Didn't I hear today that the cost for that system went up a lot?

The savings you mentioned should be included.  The problem is, like climate control, the proponents only talk about what it's going to cost if we do nothing but don't tell us what it's going to cost if we do?  All costs and savings have to be included to ascertain the bottom line.  When people only talk about the differences between the cost of a KWh vs a gallon of gas when talking about operational costs, they're not looking at the actual saving and costs for running and owning the car.  They're cherry-picking and fooling themselves and others.   

[Robert Roaldi]

... They're cherry-picking and fooling themselves and others.   

You seem to be hell-bent on proving to everyone how EV use cannot possibly catch on while they're selling like hot cakes. Can you explain that? Do you think all those people are not able figure things out for themselves?

[Alan Klein]

EVs will take over the market quickly for reasons above and beyond the almighty dollar.
Smooth as glass, quiet as a whisper and, best of all...

FUN


.

Fun sounds like a great reason. I love to drive and enjoy performance like acceleration that Tesla does. But most of the hoopla is about how much you can save on gas which might not be that much if you include depreciation and vehicle cost.  Maybe they should push FUN more. 

[Alan Klein]

You seem to be hell-bent on proving to everyone how EV use cannot possibly catch on while they're selling like hot cakes. Can you explain that? Do you think all those people are not able figure things out for themselves?

It's new.  It's fun. It's fast.  You get a $7500 tax deduction.  You're different than all the other drivers on the road. So people buy it.  It's like a new model Nikon for three grand.  Gotta have it.

 If my analysis doesn't make sense, prove me wrong.  I use to do energy management design and installations.  The first thing the buyers wanted to know is ROI.  These business people were savvy.  If I tried to BS them by not including all the costs to make the ROI look better, they'd know immediately and throw me out of their office.  I know when someone is selling me a bill of goods when they only mention how much electricity they;re using as the justification for buying the car, ignoring all other variables.  It's like calculating solar savings and not including the guy you have to pay to clean the panels  of snow and dirt or the cost to remove and reinstall the panels when you replace the roof.   

[James Clark]

It's new.  It's fun. It's fast.  You get a $7500 tax deduction.  You're different than all the other drivers on the road. So people buy it.  It's like a new model Nikon for three grand.  Gotta have it.

 If my analysis doesn't make sense, prove me wrong.  I use to do energy management design and installations.  The first thing the buyers wanted to know is ROI.  These business people were savvy.  If I tried to BS them by not including all the costs to make the ROI look better, they'd know immediately and throw me out of their office.  I know when someone is selling me a bill of goods when they only mention how much electricity they;re using as the justification for buying the car, ignoring all other variables.  It's like calculating solar savings and not including the guy you have to pay to clean the panels  of snow and dirt or the cost to remove and reinstall the panels when you replace the roof.   

I think your entire analysis of the car market is wrong.   For starters, ROI isn’t the only, or even the primary thing everyone looks for in a car.  For another, use cases are night and day from person to person.  Electric cars aren’t always the optimal solution.  But sometimes they are.

[Alan Klein]

I think your entire analysis of the car market is wrong.   For starters, ROI isn’t the only, or even the primary thing everyone looks for in a car.  For another, use cases are night and day from person to person.  Electric cars aren’t always the optimal solution.  But sometimes they are.

I never said you shouldn't get an EV.  It serves many purposes, as you said.  It's just that when someone claims how cheap it is to operate by only looking at the difference in operating costs between KWH and gallons, my eyes glaze over.

[James Clark]

I never said you shouldn't get an EV.  It serves many purposes, as you said.  It's just that when someone claims how cheap it is to operate by only looking at the difference in operating costs between KWH and gallons, my eyes glaze over.

Well sure.  It’s true, but as you said there are many other costs to owning a car than the price of energy per mile. It’s not like the electrics are worse in all the other metrics though.

[Alan Klein]

Well sure.  It’s true, but as you said there are many other costs to owning a car than the price of energy per mile. It’s not like the electrics are worse in all the other metrics though.

Actually, I think they're about to get better.  As the traditional auto companies start electrifying their cars, the styling, features, and classiness, will get much better.  Tesla will have to up their game.  If battery costs come down, they'll become more competitive with similarly equipped gasoline cars.  Then watch out.  It's unfortunate that the government is giving one group of buyers tax breaks at the expense of others who might not even own a car or could afford a new one.  I just think that's unfair.  Maybe the government should give those who don't own a car a $7500 tax break so they can fly to Florida to go on vacation.

[LesPalenik]

Could the higher insurance cost be tied to the autonomous driving option?  There's a lot of nervousness about safety.  Didn't I hear today that the cost for that system went up a lot?

What system are you talking about?
On January 17, the cost of FSD (Full Self Driving) will go up from $10K to $12K and before the year end it will go higher. Is this what you mean? Or cost of the actual car?
If you mean FSD, then it is a lot, and no other company had sold and charged so much before for such a capability.
But if it saves your life by avoiding an accident, you could look at it as a bargain. Furthermore, it is a feature which you can amortize over the rather long life of the vehicle, in this case 15-20 years, so you could look at it as $50 per month. If it lowers your insurance premium by $50, then it's essentially free.

I read or heard several reports in which the Tesla driver described how FSD avoided possibly life-threatening situation. Last year, one of my friends driving an older BMW in the Toronto suburb fell asleep behind the wheel, the car jumped the curb on the median island and hit two metal traffic sign poles before he woke up. The car was pretty much a write off, but fortunately hitting the sign poles prevented the car from crossing into the opposing lane and hitting another car or pedestrians on the sidewalk. If he had a FSD or even Autopilot or even a less capable Lane Keeping option, the car would have alerted him and stayed in that lane. How much would you pay for a safety feature that eliminates such mishaps?

[LesPalenik]

On January 26, Elon Musk will make several announcements, among them updated specs for Cybertruck and Model Y, which will be made in the new Austin plant. According to latest rumours, he may announce two distinct Cybertruck models and a much improved Model Y MK2. Should be an exciting day.

[Alan Klein]

What system are you talking about?
On January 17, the cost of FSD (Full Self Driving) will go up from $10K to $12K and before the year end it will go higher. Is this what you mean? Or cost of the actual car?
If you mean FSD, then it is a lot, and no other company had sold and charged so much before for such a capability.
But if it saves your life by avoiding an accident, you could look at it as a bargain. Furthermore, it is a feature which you can amortize over the rather long life of the vehicle, in this case 15-20 years, so you could look at it as $50 per month. If it lowers your insurance premium by $50, then it's essentially free.

I read or heard several reports in which the Tesla driver described how FSD avoided possibly life-threatening situation. Last year, one of my friends driving an older BMW in the Toronto suburb fell asleep behind the wheel, the car jumped the curb on the median island and hit two metal traffic sign poles before he woke up. The car was pretty much a write off, but fortunately hitting the sign poles prevented the car from crossing into the opposing lane and hitting another car or pedestrians on the sidewalk. If he had a FSD or even Autopilot or even a less capable Lane Keeping option, the car would have alerted him and stayed in that lane. How much would you pay for a safety feature that eliminates such mishaps?

What I heard going up was FSD.  I thought using FSD would raise your insurance premiums. Doesn't it take over control of your car and all the bugs aren't out of it? 

I'm too preconditioned for that.  I get nervous when others are driving and I'm not in control of the car.  I couldn't relax in a car that's driving itself. Plus I enjoy driving.  Have you ever tried it? If so what were your experiences?

[LesPalenik]

What I heard going up was FSD.  I thought using FSD would raise your insurance premiums. Doesn't it take over control of your car and all the bugs aren't out of it? 

I'm too preconditioned for that.  I get nervous when others are driving and I'm not in control of the car.  I couldn't relax in a car that's driving itself. Plus I enjoy driving.  Have you ever tried it? If so what were your experiences?

Actually, with Tesla insurance the insurance premiums would be lower than without FSD.
I haven't tried FSD (right now it's only FSD Beta), but watched many videos showing the driving experiences - in all kinds of conditions, day, night, snow and rain. The display screen is split into two parts - left part shows the birds eye view (Surround Video) of your car and the surrounds, showing other cars, pedestrians, road obstructions, and the right half of the screen shows the navigation. There are hundreds of FSD videos on youtube, have a look at them, select some of the recent ones with FSD 10.8.1 Beta or newer, you'll be amazed. Some videos show long distance trips from SF to LA, some highway driving, rural roads or city driving.
You have to see the screen in Surround video to understand how complex it is to perform the road evaluation and driving, and how advanced FSD is. Yet, it is still not perfect, but it is improving with each subsequent version.

[Alan Klein]

Actually, with Tesla insurance the insurance premiums would be lower than without FSD.
I haven't tried FSD (right now it's only FSD Beta), but watched many videos showing the driving experiences - in all kinds of conditions, day, night, snow and rain. The display screen is split into two parts - left part shows the birds eye view (Surround Video) of your car and the surrounds, showing other cars, pedestrians, road obstructions, and the right half of the screen shows the navigation. There are hundreds of FSD videos on youtube, have a look at them, select some of the recent ones with FSD 10.8.1 Beta or newer, you'll be amazed. Some videos show long distance trips from SF to LA, some highway driving, rural roads or city driving.
You have to see the screen in Surround video to understand how complex it is to perform the road evaluation and driving, and how advanced FSD is. Yet, it is still not perfect, but it is improving with each subsequent version.

I watched a video a few months ago when someone suggested it here.  The car drove through a pedestrian crosswalk while two people were waiting to cross.  By the way, if a cop stops you for a violation, who pays the fine?  The car's owner or Elon Musk?

[LesPalenik]

I'm surprised, because what I've seen was a very effective detection of pedestrians. Was it an early FSD version or a recent one?
FSD Beta is by definition NOT a fully working version, so there will be still many glitches.

[Alan Klein]

I'm surprised, because what I've seen was a very effective detection of pedestrians. Was it an early FSD version or a recent one?
FSD Beta is by definition NOT a fully working version, so there will be still many glitches.

I don't recall.  But I was struck how the car just ignored the pedestrians obviously waiting to cross and there were lines painted on the crosswalk.  Maybe the computer was napping.  I often fall asleep when I'm driving too. 

[LesPalenik]

I don't recall.  But I was struck how the car just ignored the pedestrians obviously waiting to cross and there were lines painted on the crosswalk.  Maybe the computer was napping.  I often fall asleep when I'm driving too.

If you'll look at the latest FSD videos, you'll be amazed how effective is FSD.

[Alan Klein]

If you'll look at the latest FSD videos, you'll be amazed how effective is FSD.

For the obvious things, I think they're fine.  But what about the not-so-obvious?  For example, you're about to make a left turn at a four-way intersection with stop signs.  You check the eyes in the driver on the other side of the road to see that he sees you before starting to turn.  That way he doesn't pull out just as you committed to the turn.  Will FSD see that? 

You see two children playing catch on the sidewalk in front of you to the right.  The kid misses the ball and it starts rolling to the curb.  You know the kid is going to chase after it. So you remove your foot from the accelerator and feather your brake pedal until the incident passes.  Can FSD perform that or will it keep driving waiting for the kid to actually be in the street  before trying to stop the car before it may hit the kid?

[Robert Roaldi]

For the obvious things, I think they're fine.  But what about the not-so-obvious?  For example, you're about to make a left turn at a four-way intersection with stop signs.  You check the eyes in the driver on the other side of the road to see that he sees you before starting to turn.  That way he doesn't pull out just as you committed to the turn.  Will FSD see that? 

You see two children playing catch on the sidewalk in front of you to the right.  The kid misses the ball and it starts rolling to the curb.  You know the kid is going to chase after it. So you remove your foot from the accelerator and feather your brake pedal until the incident passes.  Can FSD perform that or will it keep driving waiting for the kid to actually be in the street  before trying to stop the car before it may hit the kid?

The AIs will over time be able to train themselves to deal with these situations. I wonder how they will deal with teenagers who suddenly jump out in front and stand there on a dare or just to relieve boredom. Maybe carjackers will learnt to take advantage of this, it's an easy way to stop a car, since they know the car will always stop. I wonder how hackers will tamper with the firmware. When the self-driving car fails, who do you sue? Learning to navigate traffic might turn out to be the easy part.

[Alan Klein]

The AIs will over time being to train themselves to deal with these situations. I wonder how they will deal with teenagers who suddenly jump out in front and stand there on a dare or just to relieve boredom. Maybe carjackers will learnt to take advantage of this, it's an easy way to stop a car, since they know the car will always stop. I wonder how hackers will tamper with the firmware. When the self-driving car fails, who do you sue? Learning to navigate traffic might turn out to be the easy part.

In NYC, what will it do when the homeless guy comes up to clean your windshield and ask for a buck?

Getting back to what they'll learn.  But how many accidents will occur in the learning process?  Frankly, I don't see how they can learn the samples I gave.  First off, are the cameras so fine that they can see the eyes of other drivers much less determine the acknowledgment you get from another driver that it's OK to pull out and make the turn? 

That raises the opposite situation.  How will other drivers know what the Telsa car is thinking before making its turn?  There's a lot of winks and nods going on among drivers especially in street traffic in towns and cities.  In NYC I'm watching what pedestrians see and their actions.  There are jaywalkers all over the place who aren't paying attention to traffic signals or crosswalks. There are all sorts of signals between them and drivers, waves and nods to precede or not.  Communication is constant.  How is AI going to see and handle these things?