Cars - history, now and future

[Alan Klein]

As mentioned above, Tesla already disabled the rolling stop and complied with NHTSA request to perform full stop. The FSD monitors who stopped first and proceeds when is its turn. If the other dummy starts before it's his turn, FSD will put up with such a foolish action, stop and wait until the dummy leaves the intersection.

I have a feeling that a rolling stop (what we called a Hollywood stops when I was a kid.) was the reason the Tesla went through a crosswalk on the FSD video I saw on Youtube even though there were two people standing to cross on the sidewalk.  If the 100 lawyers OKed the rolling stop at a four-way stop, why wouldn't they approve a rolling stop at a crosswalk?  Here's what an engineer said about the whole thing.  MAybe that's the reason the Tesla failed to stop at my crosswalk.

"Philip Koopman, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, said 4-way stop signs are commonly placed to protect intersections for children when no crossing guard is present. He said Tesla’s “machine learning” system can easily mistakenly identify objects. “What happens when FSD decides a child crossing the street is not ‘relevant’ and fails to stop?” he asked. “This is an unsafe behavior and should never have been put in vehicles. Koopman said traveling through a stop sign at 5.6 mph is akin to treating it as a yield sign."

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2022/02/01/tesla-recall-full-self-driving-software-runs-stop-signs/

[Alan Klein]

Here's a new FSD video posted Feb 4 2022 after rolling stops were ended.  I only watched for a few minutes. and shut it off before I got into an accident.  If this is an example of where Tesla is, they have a long way to go.

The navigation system as well as the FSD driving system is messed up.  First it navigated wrong.  Then it made a hard stop at a stop sign.  Then it hesitated at making a left turn onto the main road.  Then it made another left but into the wrong lane. Then it made a right ignoring the stop sign completely at 2:40.  At 3:16 he made another turn that started to go into the wrong lane again. At 3:28 it made a right turn straight into a short barrier.  An accident.  That's when I stopped. 

What's interesting is that the driver constantly puts his hand on the steering wheel as if he doesn't;t trust it.  I don't blame him.  I'd do the same.  what's the point of a system that you can't trust and have to watch all the time?  You might as well drive and be relaxed. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbSDsbDQjSU

[Alan Klein]

In 3 1/2 minutes, Tesla violated three driving rules and got into one accident.  (That's in clear weather, blue skies, no clouds, no snow or rain on the ground.) I don't know what happens for the rest of the 6 minutes left in the video. 

[Alan Klein]

OK, I couldn't resist watching more.  At 4:45 the Tesla decided it was a choo choo train and started to drive on the railroad tracks.  At 5:08 it started to drive in a restricted zone before making a right. At 6:35 it tried to become a train again and drive on railroad tracks.  At 7:50 it tried to hit the pylons again.   (Apparently, it doesn't recognize short pylons as a barrier).  Then it thought it was supposed to park but wasn't. There were a few other inconsistencies.  How will it determine anything if it snows and traffic lines and railroad tracks are covered up?

[LesPalenik]

Here's a new FSD video posted Feb 4 2022 after rolling stops were ended.  I only watched for a few minutes. and shut it off before I got into an accident.  If this is an example of where Tesla is, they have a long way to go.

The navigation system as well as the FSD driving system is messed up.  First it navigated wrong.  Then it made a hard stop at a stop sign.  Then it hesitated at making a left turn onto the main road.  Then it made another left but into the wrong lane. Then it made a right ignoring the stop sign completely at 2:40.  At 3:16 he made another turn that started to go into the wrong lane again. At 3:28 it made a right turn straight into a short barrier.  An accident.  That's when I stopped. 

What's interesting is that the driver constantly puts his hand on the steering wheel as if he doesn't;t trust it.  I don't blame him.  I'd do the same.  what's the point of a system that you can't trust and have to watch all the time?  You might as well drive and be relaxed. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbSDsbDQjSU

I just returned home from running an errand in an ICE vehicle without FSD.  I didn't see any Teslas today, but plenty of incompetent and deranged drivers in cars without FSD.

Firstly, the FSD Beta is still in training phase. It hasn't been officially released yet. How many times do I have to repeat it?
Secondly, at this time the drivers have to keep their hands on the steering wheel in order to take over if FSD Beta misbehaves. It's a Tesla requirement at this time.
Thirdly, more than 38,000 people die every year in crashes in ICE vehicles on US roads. That's 104 deaths per day or 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough per year to require medical attention. Many of these deaths and injuries could have been avoided even with the current FSD Beta version.
Fourthly, even if I had FSD I wouldn't use it all time, in all situations. FSD is almost perfect on highways (even the Beta version), one guy drove from LA to SF without any interventions. Still problematic in tricky situations, but getting better with each new Beta release.

In summary, by the time you and me will be ready to buy Tesla, Tesla will have a well behaved FSD. Much better and safer than an average driver.

[Alan Klein]

I just returned home from running an errand in an ICE vehicle without FSD.  I didn't see any Teslas today, but plenty of incompetent and deranged drivers in cars without FSD.

Firstly, the FSD Beta is still in training phase. It hasn't been officially released yet. How many times do I have to repeat it?
Secondly, at this time the drivers have to keep their hands on the steering wheel in order to take over if FSD Beta misbehaves. It's a Tesla requirement at this time.
Thirdly, more than 38,000 people die every year in crashes in ICE vehicles on US roads. That's 104 deaths per day or 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough per year to require medical attention. Many of these deaths and injuries could have been avoided even with the current FSD Beta version.
Fourthly, even if I had FSD I wouldn't use it all time, in all situations. FSD is almost perfect on highways (even the Beta version), one guy drove from LA to SF without any interventions. Still problematic in tricky situations, but getting better with each new Beta release.

In summary, by the time you and me will be ready to buy Tesla, Tesla will have a well behaved FSD. Much better and safer than an average driver.

First off, I hope you're right and Tesla makes a fortune from FSD and makes driving safer.  As an American company, I want it to do well.  I assume Canada and Mexico supply products and services to Tesla as well.  So the company is a plus for North America.   The better it does, the better for all of us.

I realize it's still in the training phase.  But I was shocked at how many driving errors and one accident I saw in this latest video with less than ten minutes of driving time.  There's no way the software can drive a car safely in a city. Maybe on a highway.  Anyone looking at the video I posted would express their concern as well. 

I don't believe that this software would have avoided those deaths.  From what I saw in the demonstration video, there would have been a lot more accidents.  I think you're getting ahead of yourself because you want it to succeed.  So do I.  But you have to be realistic.  They're not close yet.

[Chris Kern]

Just a follow-up question regarding legal questions re [autonomous cars] or even [partial automated] control in case there are people reading here who might know about these things. . . . So when something goes wrong, and something will go wrong, what is the legal framework? Who's to blame? Who gets sued?

Here in the States, regulatory authority for traffic safety is shared between the federal and state governments.  With respect to tort liability, which is a state issue, in general the usual rules are likely to prevail: a plaintiff that seeks to recover damages will need to prove that the defendant was negligent.  Precisely what that means with respect to autonomous vehicles may be governed by statutes enacted in the respective states; in the absence of statutory standards, the state courts typically will employ common-law rules to determine which party prevails.  (The United States is a common law jurisdiction.)

Many companies and independent research institutions are working on autonomous driving technology.  All of them will no doubt be involved in the development of regulations for autonomous vehicles, as will the federal Department of Transportation and its counterparts in the states.  My guess is that the regulatory process will evolve more-or-less synchronously with the technology.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration offers a detailed, non-technical discussion of some of the issues on its website.

[Alan Klein]

Here in the States, regulatory authority for traffic safety is shared between the federal and state governments.  With respect to tort liability, which is a state issue, in general the usual rules are likely to prevail: a plaintiff that seeks to recover damages will need to prove that the defendant was negligent.  Precisely what that means with respect to autonomous vehicles may be governed by statutes enacted in the respective states; in the absence of statutory standards, the state courts typically will employ common-law rules to determine which party prevails.  (The United States is a common law jurisdiction.)

Many companies and independent research institutions are working on autonomous driving technology.  All of them will no doubt be involved in the development of regulations for autonomous vehicles, as will the federal Department of Transportation and its counterparts in the states.  My guess is that the regulatory process will evolve more-or-less synchronously with the technology.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration offers a detailed, non-technical discussion of some of the issues on its website.

Good points Chris.  I have a question.  Wouldn't the regulatory process be different than the legal situation?  In other words, the National Safety board may have regulations, but I can see where the liability issue is handled differently among the 50 states.  That could leave drivers in the lurch when driving interstate.

I can see Congress stepping in and having standards for insurance and liability across the board.  Otherwise, as you drive from state to state, insurance that covers you in your home state, might not do so in another.  What do you think?

[LesPalenik]

I realize it's still in the training phase.  But I was shocked at how many driving errors and one accident I saw in this latest video with less than ten minutes of driving time.  There's no way the software can drive a car safely in a city. Maybe on a highway.  Anyone looking at the video I posted would express their concern as well. 

I watched a number of FSD videos. Some individuals want to show how bad it is, and they can certainly find ways to prove it. Others, more experienced Beta test drivers know what to expect from FSD and they behave accordingly and anticipate certain problems (or are ready to take over).

Alan, autonomous driving is one of the most challenging projects of all times. Much more difficult than building pyramids, or playing chess and conducting a shallow conversation with a computer. This has never been done before. But then, Elon Musk has embarked on many projects that have never been done. Without him, NASA would be still flying cosmonauts to ISS using Russian rockets and their new Moon project will be still on the shelf. If you look at some FSD Beta from a year or two ago, you would agree that the latest version is much better. And it is getting better every two weeks.  Elon says that FSD should be ready and quite competent by end of this year. Let's give him some slack and count on second half of 2023. Still a tremendous progress. By 2024, many people will sell their cars and start using Robotaxis.

[Alan Klein]

I have no problem giving him all the time he needs.  I also have no doubt how difficult it must be.  I've expressed the difficulties that I could see previous in my examples of kids playing ball on the sidewalk and other things we don't think about while driving.  But the software and hardware will have to.   There are so many small cues that go on between drivers and between drivers and pedestrians, and other cues on human behavior that is difficult to identify, see, and act upon in a human and safe way.  The cameras aren't detailed enough as well.  So there are hardware as well as software limitations.

The video I saw did things that the driver had no input on.  Left turns into oncoming traffic lanes, turning onto railroad tracks, not seeing bollards in the road and driving into them, driving through stoplights, etc.  At this late stage, how could the program be doing that?  On top of that, the streets were clear.  There was no snow-hiding lane lines.  What happens when it snows or rains.  How will the program ever know where it's going?   The FSD was driven in sunny and clear San Jose in Silicon Valley by what sounded like tech nerds.  They seem to be real supporters of Tesla yet were frankly disappointed in the drive. Well, there was an accident.  Anyway.  I think Musk will try to get this released before it's ready to move the stock up in value so he can sell some more of it and get more low-price stock from his arrangement when it went public.  If he has to shut down FSD afterwards, it won't matter because he made his money.   

[LesPalenik]

I think Musk will try to get this released before it's ready to move the stock up in value so he can sell some more of it and get more low-price stock from his arrangement when it went public.  If he has to shut down FSD afterwards, it won't matter because he made his money.   

In my view, accusing Elon Musk of Pump And Dump the Tesla stock is flawed thinking, he doesn't have to do that. And I don't have to try to convince you, so I exit with wishing you a pleasant evening.

[Alan Klein]

In my view, accusing Elon Musk of Pump And Dump the Tesla stock is flawed thinking, he doesn't have to do that. And I don't have to try to convince you, so I exit with wishing you a pleasant evening.

A couple of quarters ago, he sold some of Bitcoins owned by Tesla that took the company's earnings over a certain amount that allowed him to personally buy additional Tesla stock at a tiny fraction of its current stock value at the time.  He made tens of billions.  So he's not embarrassed to work the corporation to personal ends.  When asked about why he sold only part of Tesla's Bitcoin holdings, he said that he was curious to see what that would do the the price of Bitcoins in the market. Sure.   Of course, the investment community bought what he claimed and ignored his personal windfall. They never reported the link. That's why I made the statement about FSD. 

[LesPalenik]

Biden finally said the word "Tesla".

President Joe Biden mentioned Tesla Inc. on Tuesday in a White House speech, after recent complaints by the electric-vehicle brand’s chief executive that his administration snubbed the EV maker.

Speaking alongside Tritium DCFC Ltd. DCFC, +39.47% CEO Jane Hunter about the Australian company’s plan to build a plant in Tennessee, Biden only briefly discussed Tesla TSLA, +1.62% while talking about other companies, such as General Motors Co. GM, -2.46% and Ford Motor Co. F, -0.95%, who are building out electric-vehicle production. Biden called Tesla “our nation’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3e473082-792e-3815-9319-d65d6dbbf769/biden-mentions-tesla-after.html

[Alan Klein]

Biden finally said the word "Tesla".

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3e473082-792e-3815-9319-d65d6dbbf769/biden-mentions-tesla-after.html

Well, that's some progress.  Maybe he can take one out for a test drive.

[LesPalenik]

Sandy Munro from Munro & Associates just published his impressions from the Cyber Rodeo in the new Tesla factory in Austin. Amazing never seen before video clips of the Tesla Model Y car design and the highly automated plant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLmIBO5Apz0&t=11s

The full coverage of the event, including more footage from the factory and an awesome drone light shows is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiwUE_2JhvY

[Peter McLennan]

Amazing stuff. Come for the robots, stay for the drones.

[Robert Roaldi]

Interesting discussion on Freakonomics podcast about EVs https://freakonomics.com/podcast/in-the-1890s-the-best-selling-car-was-electric/.

The newish podcast "What's your problem" has a good discussion about programming self-driving cars https://www.pushkin.fm/episode/teaching-cars-to-think-like-people/

and also a good discussion about widespread drone use https://www.pushkin.fm/episode/launching-drone-delivery/.

[Chris Kern]

The . . . podcast "What's your problem" has a good discussion about programming self-driving cars. . . .

Apparently this includes a subroutine on what-to-do-when-a-cop-pulls-you-over.

The San Francisco police officers in the video link above appeared to be understandably confused when they stopped a General Motors autonomous vehicle, and discovered that nobody—neither a driver nor a passenger—was in the car.

The police department subsequently contacted the car service using the vehicle, and reportedly accepted the company's explanation that the car did the right thing by pulling away while the puzzled officers were trying to figure out what was going on.

Chiming in with more details: our AV yielded to the police vehicle, then pulled over to the nearest safe location for the traffic stop, as intended.  An officer contacted Cruise personnel and no citation was issued.

I haven't been able to determine from the press coverage what infraction the vehicle may have committed.  Maybe just not having anybody in the driver's seat?

[Robert Roaldi]

Apparently this includes a subroutine on what-to-do-when-a-cop-pulls-you-over.

The San Francisco police officers in the video link above appeared to be understandably confused when they stopped a General Motors autonomous vehicle, and discovered that nobody—neither a driver nor a passenger—was in the car.

The police department subsequently contacted the car service using the vehicle, and reportedly accepted the company's explanation that the car did the right thing by pulling away while the puzzled officers were trying to figure out what was going on.

I haven't been able to determine from the press coverage what infraction the vehicle may have committed.  Maybe just not having anybody in the driver's seat?

At least they didn't shoot it.

[LesPalenik]

Kevin Paffrath, a well known financial youtuber was interviewed this weekend on Yahoo Finance and he predicted that Tesla will build several more gigafactories in the near future. He puts his money where his mouth is. Added 2 more millions in Tesla stock.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-bull-predicts-between-5-10-new-gigafactories-in-the-next-two-years-140626339.html