Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Rob C]

I kinda wonder how the Israeli leadership will survive this state of escalating war with Iran. Iron Dome failures are not good signs for local confidence in where the country's going. May be that where Hamas doesn’t seem to be much affected by the disasters it brings its own people, the same might not hold true in the case of Israel. Either way, one shouldn’t be surprised by either of its current foes feeling as they do. The mess is so old, so deeply woven into the minds and histories of all involved that there seems no viable way out. Would a two-state solution ever quench the resentment at the loss of lands stolen? As always, how far back does a current status quo have to go before it is accepted as normal? Territory, of course, is all something quite apart from religious differences. Does the world have to go completely grey before it can find basis for a common peace?

Oh well, time to do the day’s dishes and listen to the latest episode from The Juke in the Back.

[Robert Roaldi]

Trumps behavior as a president trickles down to every level in society, i am afraid.

I saw some headlines this morning about him doubling down on ICE raids in Democratic cities. So it is about partisan aggro then, not immigration, or he'd go after the undocumented wherever they were.

Right at this moment he is in Banff Alberta for the G7 meeting. I'm a bit surprised that Canadian Border Control is ok with letting convicted felons into the country. My wife told me that he gave a little speech about how it used to be G8 but that Obama and Trudeau kicked Russia off the panel and that Putin is upset about it. I wonder why he thought that was relevant to bring up. 

Anyway, I'm sure he'll fix a lot of things while he's at the summit.

Is that military parade going to be an annual thing?

[JoeKitchen]

I kinda wonder how the Israeli leadership will survive this state of escalating war with Iran. Iron Dome failures are not good signs for local confidence in where the country's going. May be that where Hamas doesn’t seem to be much affected by the disasters it brings its own people, the same might not hold true in the case of Israel. Either way, one shouldn’t be surprised by either of its current foes feeling as they do. The mess is so old, so deeply woven into the minds and histories of all involved that there seems no viable way out. Would a two-state solution ever quench the resentment at the loss of lands stolen? As always, how far back does a current status quo have to go before it is accepted as normal? Territory, of course, is all something quite apart from religious differences. Does the world have to go completely grey before it can find basis for a common peace?

Oh well, time to do the day’s dishes and listen to the latest episode from The Juke in the Back.

Rob, it was game over for Iran, and Russia, months ago when the Syrian Assad regime fell, through no fault of Israel by the way.  Eventually Israel would have to exploit it, especially after Trump was elected. 

It would have been the lost opportunity of all lost opportunities if Israel did not bring the war to the head of the octopus, Iran. 

Here is a great explination of why, Why the Fall of Syria Checkmates Russia & Iran . 

PS, this video is 4 months old and it explains why everything happening now was completely foreseeable. 

[Robert Roaldi]

I see in the reports that the Minnesota shooter is being held in federal custody. Does this introduce the possibility that Trump may pardon him?

I think that everyone should have just told Trump that the parade was a tremendous success and be done with it.

[Rhossydd]

how far back does a current status quo have to go before it is accepted as normal?

Given that the ultra orthodox Jews driving policy think god gave them the land over two thousand years ago, the chances of resolution anytime soon seems unlikely.

[Rob C]

Rob, it was game over for Iran, and Russia, months ago when the Syrian Assad regime fell, through no fault of Israel by the way.  Eventually Israel would have to exploit it, especially after Trump was elected. 

It would have been the lost opportunity of all lost opportunities if Israel did not bring the war to the head of the octopus, Iran. 

Here is a great explination of why, Why the Fall of Syria Checkmates Russia & Iran . 

PS, this video is 4 months old and it explains why everything happening now was completely foreseeable.

Thanks for that link - an interesting feature. Lucky for Turkey it already has western military ties, at least for the moment. Failing those, the temptation for Russian expansion right over it could start to appear essential to Russia’s own position.

[Robert Roaldi]

Thanks for that link - an interesting feature. Lucky for Turkey it already has western military ties, at least for the moment. Failing those, the temptation for Russian expansion right over it could start to appear essential to Russia’s own position.

Gwynne Dyer's view about Israel https://gwynnedyer.com/2025/israel-the-impossible-dream/.

Wouldn't it be interesting to roll back history and see where Iran would be today if the US/UK hadn't interfered and installed the Shah.

[JoeKitchen]

Gwynne Dyer's view about Israel https://gwynnedyer.com/2025/israel-the-impossible-dream/.

Wouldn't it be interesting to roll back history and see where Iran would be today if the US/UK hadn't interfered and installed the Shah.

Thanks for the "article."  I especially liked, in the first paragraph, this interesting statement, "In its broadest form it includes the expulsion of all Arabs from the lands now controlled by Israel." 

I guess the writer does not know that 21% of Israel is Arab who are full Israeli citizens with voting rights and Arab representation in the Knesset.

Kind of makes it hard to take anything in the essay serious given how unserious she showed herself to be in her second sentence. 

[JoeKitchen]

Thanks for that link - an interesting feature. Lucky for Turkey it already has western military ties, at least for the moment. Failing those, the temptation for Russian expansion right over it could start to appear essential to Russia’s own position.

Before I postulate this question, let me first that I feel having a stable Turkey backed Syria where a natural gas pipe line can be built from Qatar to Europe, thus cutting out Russia from the gas market in Europe, would be better for Europe in the long run. 

However, it does get me wondering on how things could play out in the Mediterranean sea. 

What if Turkey forces Syria to restrict the use of any ports or air bases in Syria while increasing its support for its side in Libya, would Greece join forces with Russia to fight Turkey?  Greece and Russia both hate Turkey and they are both orthodox Catholic.  Not to mention it would be in the best interests of Greece to keep another Mediterranean country from supporting Turkey's absurd claims that about 1/3 of the Mediterranean sea is their territorial waters. 

[digitaldog]

I guess the writer does not know that 21% of Israel is Arab who are full Israeli citizens with voting rights and Arab representation in the Knesset.

Or the writer knows this and still sees reason to believe Netanyahu’s government "zombie dream " that was once called ‘transfer’ and is now known as ‘relocation is to do just that with the 21% of Arabs. Any reason to suggest they don't? Netanyahu’s budd is in charge of the US Government, has a fellow named Steven Miller aka Trump's Brain, who wants the same, with differing groups who have the right to vote here.

[digitaldog]

I had dinner last night with a group of 10 foodies. A few are full-bore MAGA (but we still have civil conversations because we all love food). We were discussing a third term for Trump. Which, of course, the current law doesn't allow. This fellow suggested that he should be entitled to another term no matter the current law, because of obstruction, similar to the impeachments, where he wasn't allowed a full first term to get stuff done. So he should receive another chance to run after this term. The non-MAGAs were in shock at this 'idea', but MAGA-man was dead serious.

[Rob C]

It’s a frame of mind. Once a concept takes root, it can make the idea of “special case” terribly attractive. So, if Trump gets a third ride, precedent is set…

I’d be surprised if the US were ever to set military foot in the Middle East again. It may have realised that people perfectly willing to strap on suicide vests are not of the same mindset as the average westerner; trying to win against that kind of dedication is not really ever going to be a straightforward matter of overbearing military strength winning the long game: who runs Afghanistan today if not the same bunch as before it began to rain bombs? Yes, I certainly see US financial and material support being increased if the current episode does turn into a war, but the bodybags already taught their lesson to politicians.

I’m not convinced that Trump’s scenario of a Gaza that’s a holiday playground was ever entirely tonge-in-cheek; for one thing, the opportunity for real state development looks immense. Where there’s money there will be a golf course or ten… he had little trouble buying Scotland, though there was one pesky man who refused to sell his property to make way for little white balls.

[Robert Roaldi]

Thanks for the "article."  I especially liked, in the first paragraph, this interesting statement, "In its broadest form it includes the expulsion of all Arabs from the lands now controlled by Israel." 

I guess the writer does not know that 21% of Israel is Arab who are full Israeli citizens with voting rights and Arab representation in the Knesset.

Kind of makes it hard to take anything in the essay serious given how unserious she showed herself to be in her second sentence.

Gwynne Dyer is a he, not a she, https://gwynnedyer.com/about-gwynne/.

I'd say you're labelling him as unserious based on a relatively unimportant nitpick. I'm sure he is aware how many Arabs live in Israel. But I'm not a defender of Dyer, he can look after himself.

[Robert Roaldi]

This is a long but interesting podcast analysis of Trump's use of the "alien enemies act" from 99% Invisible,
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/631-return-of-con-law/. Plus ça change....

This was a particularly unfortunate incident involving ICE, where a 9-months pregnant US citizen was treated in an exaggerated manner, https://thehill.com/latino/5359169-pregnant-us-citizen-border-patrol-agents/?tbref=hp.

I finally got around to watching snippets of Hegseth's committee testimony last week. Funny that his first name is Pete, given the old management text  "The Peter Principle". His responses to questions made me cringe.

[JoeKitchen]

Or the writer knows this and still sees reason to believe Netanyahu’s government "zombie dream " that was once called ‘transfer’ and is now known as ‘relocation is to do just that with the 21% of Arabs. Any reason to suggest they don't? Netanyahu’s budd is in charge of the US Government, has a fellow named Steven Miller aka Trump's Brain, who wants the same, with differing groups who have the right to vote here.

Man, you guys really have too time on your hands to think up crazy ideas. 

[JoeKitchen]

Gwynne Dyer is a he, not a she, https://gwynnedyer.com/about-gwynne/.

I'd say you're labelling him as unserious based on a relatively unimportant nitpick. I'm sure he is aware how many Arabs live in Israel. But I'm not a defender of Dyer, he can look after himself.

21% of 9,000,000 is not unimportant.  It's a major over look. 

You cant predict Israel is going to export all of the Arabs while ignoring all the fact that 21% of the country is Arab with full rights.  It kind of destroys your argument. 

[digitaldog]

Man, you guys really have too time on your hands to think up crazy ideas.

“When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff.”
Marcus Tullius Cicero

[JoeKitchen]

“When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff.”
Marcus Tullius Cicero

Responded like a true conspiracy theorists. 

[digitaldog]

You cant predict Israel is going to export all of the Arabs while ignoring all the fact that 21% of the country is Arab with full rights.  It kind of destroys your argument.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_cleansing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_displacement

See tip #4, which should be a focus next time you post here:
https://www.talentsmarteq.com/8-ways-to-get-people-to-take-you-more-seriously/

[digitaldog]

Responded like a true conspiracy theorists.

The absurd is the last refuge of a pundit without an argument.