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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 1318484 times)

digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16900 on: April 03, 2025, 11:57:17 am »

Canon makes its own sensors in Japan, at the very least, so yeah, that will affect the price. Bigly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canon_Inc.#:~:text=Canon%20designs%20and%20manufactures%20CMOS,three%20dedicated%20fabs%20in%20Japan.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16901 on: April 03, 2025, 12:06:53 pm »

In the "you can't make this up" mode:

Trump Tariffs Hit Antarctic Islands Inhabited by Zero Humans and Many Penguins
The Heard and McDonald Islands are among the dozens of targets of President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs. But they have no exports, because no one lives there.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced the US was imposing reciprocal tariffs on a small collection of Antarctic islands that are not inhabited by humans, as part of a global trade war aimed at asserting US dominance. The Heard and McDonald Islands, known for their populations of penguins and seabirds, can only be reached by sea.

Trump announced the countries now subject to tariffs in a Wednesday press conference, using a poster as a prop. Additional countries—including the Heard and McDonald Islands, which are, incidentally, not countries—were listed on sheets of paper distributed to reporters.
https://www.wired.com/story/trump-tariffs-antarctic-islands-heard-mcdonald/
Frans?  ;)
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16902 on: April 03, 2025, 01:17:42 pm »

I've completely lost track, what problem are these tariffs supposed to fix again? First it was about fentanyl, then it was about trade balance, now it seems to be about bringing back manufacturing to the US. But manufacturing never left the US, the US is still the 2nd largest manufacturing country. The only reason that China is number one is because labour-intensive manufacturing of cheap goods moved there because of their available cheap labour. Besides, American companies were among those who moved production there.

Even if the US is trying to bring back manufacturing, why don't they just do it in the those industries in which they have a chance of competing, why tariff ALL goods. None of this makes any sense. I see headlines online about whether the tariffs will work. But will they work to do what? The end goal has never been clearly spelled out, so far as I can see. I don't see how a recession will help either.


The funniest nonsense from last week was Peter Novarro trying to tell some interviewer that tariffs were actually tax cuts! What?!?

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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16903 on: April 03, 2025, 01:58:58 pm »

Here are some not encouraging words about US expansionism from Gwynne Dyer https://gwynnedyer.com/2025/three-hours-in-greenland/.
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degrub

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16904 on: April 03, 2025, 07:40:00 pm »

I've completely lost track, what problem are these tariffs supposed to fix again? First it was about fentanyl, then it was about trade balance, now it seems to be about bringing back manufacturing to the US. But manufacturing never left the US, the US is still the 2nd largest manufacturing country. The only reason that China is number one is because labour-intensive manufacturing of cheap goods moved there because of their available cheap labour. Besides, American companies were among those who moved production there.

Even if the US is trying to bring back manufacturing, why don't they just do it in the those industries in which they have a chance of competing, why tariff ALL goods. None of this makes any sense. I see headlines online about whether the tariffs will work. But will they work to do what? The end goal has never been clearly spelled out, so far as I can see. I don't see how a recession will help either.


The funniest nonsense from last week was Peter Novarro trying to tell some interviewer that tariffs were actually tax cuts! What?!?

That is how they are funding the cuts, silly !  ;D ;)
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Ray

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16905 on: April 03, 2025, 10:43:54 pm »

I've completely lost track, what problem are these tariffs supposed to fix again? First it was about fentanyl, then it was about trade balance, now it seems to be about bringing back manufacturing to the US. But manufacturing never left the US, the US is still the 2nd largest manufacturing country. The only reason that China is number one is because labour-intensive manufacturing of cheap goods moved there because of their available cheap labour. Besides, American companies were among those who moved production there.

Even if the US is trying to bring back manufacturing, why don't they just do it in the those industries in which they have a chance of competing, why tariff ALL goods. None of this makes any sense. I see headlines online about whether the tariffs will work. But will they work to do what? The end goal has never been clearly spelled out, so far as I can see. I don't see how a recession will help either.


The funniest nonsense from last week was Peter Novarro trying to tell some interviewer that tariffs were actually tax cuts! What?!?

I'm assuming that the main reason (but not necessarilly the only reason) for these increases in tariffs on goods imported into the US is due to a lack of reciprocity. In other words, many countries impose a higher tariff on US products, than the US imposes of their products.

I tried an internet search for a list of the tariff rates that individual countries imposed on US imports prior to Trump becoming president, but couldn't find any precise information. All the articles seemed to be addressing the recent tariffs that Trump has imposed on other countries, or the general history of varying tariff rates in the US.

After continuing my search, I eventually came across the following article from the White House, which provides a reasonable explanation for the recent increase in tariffs. Here's a couple of quotes:

"For example, the United States imposes a 2.5 percent tariff on passenger vehicle imports (with internal combustion engines), while the European Union (10 percent), India (70 percent), and China (15 percent) impose much higher duties on the same product.  For network switches and routers, the United States imposes a 0 percent tariff, but for similar products, India (10 percent) levies a higher rate.  Brazil (18 percent) and Indonesia (30 percent) impose a higher tariff on ethanol than does the United States (2.5 percent).  For rice in the husk, the U.S. MFN tariff is 2.7 percent (ad valorem equivalent), while India (80 percent), Malaysia (40 percent), and Turkey (an average of 31 percent) impose higher rates.  Apples enter the United States duty-free, but not so in Turkey (60.3 percent) and India (50 percent)."

"I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that underlying conditions, including a lack of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships, disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers, and U.S. trading partners’ economic policies that suppress domestic wages and consumption, as indicated by large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States. That threat has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States in the domestic economic policies of key trading partners and structural imbalances in the global trading system.  I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to this threat."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/
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kers

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16906 on: April 04, 2025, 03:45:25 am »

I'm assuming that the main reason (but not necessarilly the only reason) for these increases in tariffs on goods imported into the US is due to a lack of reciprocity. In other words, many countries impose a higher tariff on US products, than the US imposes of their products.

I tried an internet search for a list of the tariff rates that individual countries imposed on US imports prior to Trump becoming president, but couldn't find any precise information. All the articles seemed to be addressing the recent tariffs that Trump has imposed on other countries, or the general history of varying tariff rates in the US.

After continuing my search, I eventually came across the following article from the White House, which provides a reasonable explanation for the recent increase in tariffs. Here's a couple of quotes:

"For example, the United States imposes a 2.5 percent tariff on passenger vehicle imports (with internal combustion engines), while the European Union (10 percent), India (70 percent), and China (15 percent) impose much higher duties on the same product.  For network switches and routers, the United States imposes a 0 percent tariff, but for similar products, India (10 percent) levies a higher rate.  Brazil (18 percent) and Indonesia (30 percent) impose a higher tariff on ethanol than does the United States (2.5 percent).  For rice in the husk, the U.S. MFN tariff is 2.7 percent (ad valorem equivalent), while India (80 percent), Malaysia (40 percent), and Turkey (an average of 31 percent) impose higher rates.  Apples enter the United States duty-free, but not so in Turkey (60.3 percent) and India (50 percent)."

"I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that underlying conditions, including a lack of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships, disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers, and U.S. trading partners’ economic policies that suppress domestic wages and consumption, as indicated by large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States. That threat has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States in the domestic economic policies of key trading partners and structural imbalances in the global trading system.  I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to this threat."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/

that explains the import tariffs on pinguins...

Now look at the cotton industry in the US;  hugely protected; and the enormous imbalance in tech-services - cloudstorarge ; Gooogle, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Windows..and the likes...
Every nation has some tariffs but with a specific goal;  and making everything in the US will not make things cheaper, but by then you will be already used to the high cost because of the new tariffs.

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Ray

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16907 on: April 04, 2025, 09:01:27 am »

... and making everything in the US will not make things cheaper, but by then you will be already used to the high cost because of the new tariffs.

Well, that would be true if the only change in policy were to increase tariffs on foreign imports. As I understand from what I read, Trump has also proposed eliminating taxes for those earning less than $150,000 a year.

However, that sounds like an exaggerated proposition, which Trump often makes.  ;)

Anyone earning US$150,000 a year is quite well-off and should be able to afford any moderate increase in the price of food and commodities.

What I think is more likely is that those earning between $75,000 and $150,000 will get a reduction in income tax, and those earning less than $75,000 might pay zero, or near zero income tax. Of course that, in itself, doesn't mean those people will be better off. It just means the government will receive some of its revenue from import tariffs instead of the income tax from many of its citizens whose standard of living will be about the same because the increase in commodity prices will be at least partially offset by the reduction in income tax.

Of course, the effect of other changes to the US economy should be considered, such as the government savings resulting from the actions of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the increasing development of the US economy that should take place as the price of energy falls due to increased drilling for oil and gas, and the cancellation of wasteful and inefficient onshore and offshore wind farm projects, and other silly net-zero policies.

The cost of energy is a fundamental factor relating to the price of commodities. As energy costs fall, the price of US-produced commodities should also fall.
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Rhossydd

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16908 on: April 04, 2025, 11:05:43 am »

byThom has a great article on how the tariffs will effect photography in the USA.

https://bythom.com/newsviews/a-sad-day-for-photographers.html

The footnotes do a good job of blowing apart any simplistic justification for tariffs as a credible policy.

"Anyone who thinks the whole tariff schedule shows great leadership is just showing their own stupidity. I can't say that more plainly. "
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16909 on: April 04, 2025, 12:00:39 pm »

There is a very well-stated video on the silliness of these tariffs here:
Manufacturing is the way of the past
Fareed Zakaria, GPS
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/23/politics/video/gps0323-american-manufacturing-service-based-economy
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PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16910 on: April 05, 2025, 11:57:27 am »

Now this is funny. Arkansas has introduced legislation to ban gender non-conforming haircuts.

Blurb from the video "Republicans in the Arkansas state legislature have introduced legislation that would make it effectively illegal for hairdressers to give gender-based haircuts to people of the opposite gender. The bill would allow the hairdressers to be sued if the haircut given does not conform with the gender assigned to a person at birth. This is reminiscent of the government-approved haircuts in North Korea, and equally as oppressive. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins explains what’s happening."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT6RJscGT10

The story is true, unfortunately, but ... sued by whom? Who suffers damages?
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PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16911 on: April 05, 2025, 11:58:53 am »

In the "you can't make this up" mode:

Trump Tariffs Hit Antarctic Islands Inhabited by Zero Humans and Many Penguins
The Heard and McDonald Islands are among the dozens of targets of President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs. But they have no exports, because no one lives there.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced the US was imposing reciprocal tariffs on a small collection of Antarctic islands that are not inhabited by humans, as part of a global trade war aimed at asserting US dominance. The Heard and McDonald Islands, known for their populations of penguins and seabirds, can only be reached by sea.

Trump announced the countries now subject to tariffs in a Wednesday press conference, using a poster as a prop. Additional countries—including the Heard and McDonald Islands, which are, incidentally, not countries—were listed on sheets of paper distributed to reporters.
https://www.wired.com/story/trump-tariffs-antarctic-islands-heard-mcdonald/
Frans?  ;)

Oh drat! I was all set to import a penguin!
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PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16912 on: April 05, 2025, 02:51:49 pm »


Of course, the effect of other changes to the US economy should be considered, such as the government savings resulting from the actions of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the increasing development of the US economy that should take place as the price of energy falls due to increased drilling for oil and gas, and the cancellation of wasteful and inefficient onshore and offshore wind farm projects, and other silly net-zero policies.


The cost of solar and wind is already lower than fossil in most contexts and will continue to go down (solar in particular) as solar panel costs continue to fall. And this does not include the enormous costs imposed by climate change, caused in part by burning fossil fuels for energy. With improvements in battery tech, happening rapidly, the need for fossil fuel to fill in when there is no sun or wind will continue to fall. Hanging onto fossil fuels is a losing proposition any way you look at it.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16913 on: April 05, 2025, 03:13:04 pm »

By law, our electricity provider (PNM) in New Mexico must supply all electricity with renewables by 2045. We are about 80% there today. Offshore Wind (Trump's affliction) and solar are the least expensive processes (LCOE) for generating electricity.
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Rob C

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16915 on: April 06, 2025, 12:21:39 pm »

One good thing about the tariffs, as they force down stock market values, is that the cash-rich amongst us can now pick up good stock for less money. Thus, when the Trump aberration is a thing of the past, those good companies will gather value again, once more paying out the interest that allows further such exercises next time there’s a fall.

Of course, for everybody else, life just gets tougher.

I’m wondering if iPhones and such will get special dispensations, new rules allowing them freedom from tariff increases because of the US connections they already obviously have; I can’t see Muskie allowing himself to become wired to a bloodletting device.

Fortunately, though I am seriously interested in a forthcoming iPhone 17 with improved longer lens system (if that proves to be more than just rumour), I know that even if I had the freedom of mind to spend part of what remaining capital I have on expensive cameras, I probably would not. Having or not having the necessary funds does not, of itself, alter the pointlessness of owning something that one knows is now destined to live in a dark cabinet. Were I still in a position to be both offered and undertake paid work, yes, no hesitation. But then, that was already my view when I was working: I only ever bought stuff for which I already had an existing need. My little cellular device is such a simple solution to making snaps which, let’s face it, is pretty much all anybody does nowadays. Prints? Reading the relevant columns on that topic right here, in LuLa, the troubles associated with the current crop of machines makes home printing look like blatant masochism.

As always, it’s an ill wind etc.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2025, 05:17:30 pm by Rob C »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16916 on: April 06, 2025, 09:56:43 pm »

One good thing about the tariffs, as they force down stock market values, is that the cash-rich amongst us can now pick up good stock for less money. Thus, when the Trump aberration is a thing of the past, those good companies will gather value again, once more paying out the interest that allows further such exercises next time there’s a fall.

Of course, for everybody else, life just gets tougher.

I’m wondering if iPhones and such will get special dispensations, new rules allowing them freedom from tariff increases because of the US connections they already obviously have; I can’t see Muskie allowing himself to become wired to a bloodletting device.

Fortunately, though I am seriously interested in a forthcoming iPhone 17 with improved longer lens system (if that proves to be more than just rumour), I know that even if I had the freedom of mind to spend part of what remaining capital I have on expensive cameras, I probably would not. Having or not having the necessary funds does not, of itself, alter the pointlessness of owning something that one knows is now destined to live in a dark cabinet. Were I still in a position to be both offered and undertake paid work, yes, no hesitation. But then, that was already my view when I was working: I only ever bought stuff for which I already had an existing need. My little cellular device is such a simple solution to making snaps which, let’s face it, is pretty much all anybody does nowadays. Prints? Reading the relevant columns on that topic right here, in LuLa, the troubles associated with the current crop of machines makes home printing look like blatant masochism.

As always, it’s an ill wind etc.

One online commentator (sorry, can't remember who) stated that putting tariffs on everything has little to do with rebuilding US manufacturing. Rather, it's a way for Trump to insert himself in the middle of all commercial transactions, the way a mob boss might. It encourages industries to come make individual pitches to him to soften the blow for their own industry. They have to come lobby him personally. Since he never does anything without a quid pro quo, it can be an open invitation to corruption. A bit extreme, maybe, but worth keeping an eye on jic.

Patrick Boyle has some serious and some amusing things to say about the future of world trade with widespread US tariffs, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpKe_HbVG64. His comments about the newly tariffed vanilla industry in Madagascar are especially diverting.
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Rhossydd

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16917 on: April 07, 2025, 03:51:36 am »

Robert Peston, a respected UK journalist sums it up pretty well.

https://www.itv.com/news/2025-04-06/why-recession-is-now-the-base-case

" a triple whammy on the US.

Hit number one is the tariffs themselves, which put up the costs of goods and foods, and crush the income of consumers and businesses.
Hit number two is the uncertainty around which tariffs are negotiable and which are set in stone.
.......
Hit number three is a negative wealth effect of collapsing share prices and a falling dollar.

The point is that 60% of Americans hold American shares either directly or via mutual funds.

Trump is making them poorer.
"
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16918 on: April 07, 2025, 01:22:23 pm »

I am in awe that this US administration can still shock. Turns out that Peter Novarro has been consulting with "economist" Ron Vera to push his tariff beliefs. Trouble is that Ron Vera does not exist, Novarro made him up. I saw some online chatter that Novarro and Musk are at odds and that maybe the Trump/Musk honeymoon is over. This crap hits the news and everyone just moves on, nothing to see here. The country tanks, and Trump golfs.

I gather there are still people pushing the idea that this is a bad phase in the economy and that the US will emerge better off when it's over. This is a common theme in our culture, that we have to suffer now in the present to enjoy paradise later. I bet the preachers told the slaves this every Sunday.

This podcast episode of Freakonomics is a very interesting discussion of market competition, anti-trust, etc., with the former head of the FTC. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-biden-policy-that-trump-hasnt-touched/. It's a very wide-ranging discussion about actual cases as well as the main precepts behind the idea of using regulation to maintain free markets and avoid monopolies or near-monopolies. At one point they discussed non-compete clauses. The interviewee quoted stats saying that 1 in 5 Americans may be under non-compete clauses in their employment. I had assumed that this was used for key positions to do with trade secrets and such, but it turns out that corporations are using them for their cleaners, gardeners, etc., for which the concepts of trade secrets do not apply. In those cases, they are obviously using legal constraints to maintain control over employees. Odd that this should be the case in a country that brags about individual liberty ad nauseam.

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #16919 on: April 07, 2025, 02:59:22 pm »

Here's an interesting discussion of big box stores and their impact on urban development and how that costs local municipalities money in the long run while simultaneously making urban living worse for everyone, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7-e_yhEzIw. Along the way, it alludes to what is not free about so-called "free" markets.
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