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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 401966 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12240 on: November 08, 2021, 01:56:41 pm »

No one is giving China a pass. You have once again jumped to conclusions about a podcast's contents without listening to it.
I was commenting on your rather long and detailed post about the podcast.  I don't have to waste my time actually listening to some podcast. 

In fact the requirements of Lulu require that the poster put a summation of the podcast with the link and not just put a link. That way the readers aren't forced to watch or read an entire podcast or internet page. 

Let me ask you a question. When you watch something on the news and then call a friend to discuss what you watched and he comments what he thinks about what you said, do you listen to him or force him to watch the news program first?  Who discusses things like that?

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12241 on: November 08, 2021, 03:37:46 pm »

RealClearPolitics average approval Nov. 6th (latest posted on their website currently) for Biden is 42.7%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval

RealClearPolitics average approval Nov. 8th, 2017 for Trump was 38.2%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/presid
ent_trump_job_approval

Looks like Biden just got down to Trump's level. - 38%  Kamala Harris is at 28%.  He did that without the Russians.

Gloomy landscape for Democrats in midterms as Biden's approval drops to 38% in USA TODAY/Suffolk poll
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/

LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12242 on: November 08, 2021, 03:56:44 pm »

I did. That's exactly what those two aggregated poll numbers represent. They are the aggregated average of multiple approval polls rather than one single poll. Biden's approval poll average for day 292 of his administration compared to day 292 of Trump's administration. There was a link provided for you to look for yourself.

The aggregated numbers are from 538, but the same comparison for Biden and Trump at RealClearPolitics results in just a half-point difference with Biden doing 4.5% better than Trump for the same time period in each administration.

I was more concerned about the 38% approval number than whether the poll was taken over three days or just on one day. And based on the recent situation, I fear that approval number may go even lower, approaching the 28% for Harris.
 
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12243 on: November 08, 2021, 05:49:27 pm »

The reason for aggregating polls is that individual polls can vary fairly widely in their individual survey results. Generally, a more accurate picture can be drawn from multiple polls as it enlarges the sample size and provides a broader picture. To put it into photographic terms, a dozen different photos of a location will offer more information about that location than a single photo is able to provide.

The Suffolk poll of 1,000 people across the entire country of over 330 million people, while interesting, is one small sample. The aggregation of two polls, of 1,000 people each, doubles the sample size. Aggregating 10 polls of similar size would increase the sample size by a factor of 10, and so on. This is why poll aggregators like 538 or RealClearPolitics will generally provide a clearer picture and is why they are often cited.

As an example, in the most recent Virginia governor race, the final aggregated poll at 538 had Youngkin leading by +1%. If you simply looked at individual polls, however, you would find a range of Youngkin leading by +8% to McAuliffe leading by +4% in the days just before election. Single polls are interesting, but they only give one small snapshot in time. Taking multiple samples and aggregating them will most often provide a better picture due to the broader and larger sample this provides.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia

538 and RealClearPolitics have very different methodologies. 538 uses a complex weighting system using a large number and variety of polls while RealClearPolitics uses a simple averaging method of a smaller set of polls. There is generally not a large difference between the final results obtained by the two, however, because the primary advantage remains the use of multiple polls rather than methodology which generally accounts for a smaller impact on the resulting percentage obtained.

I wouldn't and don't worry too much about one approval poll, or even aggregated polls, at any one point in time for a president's administration. That really only becomes significant just prior to an election.

If you look at the variations in approval poll ratings over time for the presidents presented at 538, you'll find huge variations in approval and they can have wild swings in a fairly short time or over longer periods. They are instructive as to why hyperventilating over one poll at one point in time, especially so early in an administration, is probably unnecessary. You can just scroll down the page linked below and move your cursor over the timelines to get an idea of what I'm referencing and why I'm not too concerned.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating

* Just as a side note and not in response to your post Les, while comparing aggregated poll numbers to aggregated poll numbers, especially from the same source using the same methodology, makes sense—comparing a single poll to a set of aggregated polls makes little sense.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12244 on: November 08, 2021, 05:56:51 pm »

I was commenting on your rather long and detailed post about the podcast.  I don't have to waste my time actually listening to some podcast. 

In fact the requirements of Lulu require that the poster put a summation of the podcast with the link and not just put a link. That way the readers aren't forced to watch or read an entire podcast or internet page. 

Let me ask you a question. When you watch something on the news and then call a friend to discuss what you watched and he comments what he thinks about what you said, do you listen to him or force him to watch the news program first?  Who discusses things like that?

I believe that the site simply asks people to provide a description of the contents of a link so people know what it's about. I've never read anywhere about providing a summation. You're making that up. You've tried that before and it didn't work previous times. I almost admire the tenacity. Do you think that if you repeat that enough times that it will become forum policy?

I provided the podcast's own intro to the episode, I didn't think I could do better than that. I don't know why you say I provided a long and detailed post. I can only guess that not only did you not listen to the podcast but that you didn't read the post either, or you would have known that those weren't my words. And I would have no problem with any of that. If you're not interested or don't have the time, that's ok, there is no obligation on anyone's part here. But if you're going to make a comment about the contents of a linked item then people are going to feel free to respond.

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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12245 on: November 08, 2021, 06:09:23 pm »

I believe that the site simply asks people to provide a description of the contents of a link so people know what it's about. I've never read anywhere about providing a summation. You're making that up. You've tried that before and it didn't work previous times. I almost admire the tenacity. Do you think that if you repeat that enough times that it will become forum policy?

I provided the podcast's own intro to the episode, I didn't think I could do better than that. I don't know why you say I provided a long and detailed post. I can only guess that not only did you not listen to the podcast but that you didn't read the post either, or you would have known that those weren't my words. And I would have no problem with any of that. If you're not interested or don't have the time, that's ok, there is no obligation on anyone's part here. But if you're going to make a comment about the contents of a linked item then people are going to feel free to respond.


Why can't I respond to your post and skip reading the linked article?  I provide links on my posts when I quote them as a courtesy and to provide substantiation.  I then post my opinion on it.  People can give me their opinion without having to read the article.  That's OK with me.

  Your post had a lot of interesting things to say.  I drew conclusions and responded to it.  ISn't that the way people converse in person? No one sits there and reads an article while you're talking to someone.  Insisting that people watch your podtalks or read your articles is asking too much in many cases especially when you've done a good job summing it up or given an opinion someone can respond to.     

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12246 on: November 08, 2021, 06:11:01 pm »

The reason for aggregating polls is that individual polls can vary fairly widely in their individual survey results. Generally, a more accurate picture can be drawn from multiple polls as it enlarges the sample size and provides a broader picture. To put it into photographic terms, a dozen different photos of a location will offer more information about that location than a single photo is able to provide.

The Suffolk poll of 1,000 people across the entire country of over 330 million people, while interesting, is one small sample. The aggregation of two polls, of 1,000 people each, doubles the sample size. Aggregating 10 polls of similar size would increase the sample size by a factor of 10, and so on. This is why poll aggregators like 538 or RealClearPolitics will generally provide a clearer picture and is why they are often cited.

As an example, in the most recent Virginia governor race, the final aggregated poll at 538 had Youngkin leading by +1%. If you simply looked at individual polls, however, you would find a range of Youngkin leading by +8% to McAuliffe leading by +4% in the days just before election. Single polls are interesting, but they only give one small snapshot in time. Taking multiple samples and aggregating them will most often provide a better picture due to the broader and larger sample this provides.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia

538 and RealClearPolitics have very different methodologies. 538 uses a complex weighting system using a large number and variety of polls while RealClearPolitics uses a simple averaging method of a smaller set of polls. There is generally not a large difference between the final results obtained by the two, however, because the primary advantage remains the use of multiple polls rather than methodology which generally accounts for a smaller impact on the resulting percentage obtained.

I wouldn't and don't worry too much about one approval poll, or even aggregated polls, at any one point in time for a president's administration. That really only becomes significant just prior to an election.

If you look at the variations in approval poll ratings over time for the presidents presented at 538, you'll find huge variations in approval and they can have wild swings in a fairly short time or over longer periods. They are instructive as to why hyperventilating over one poll at one point in time, especially so early in an administration, is probably unnecessary. You can just scroll down the page linked below and move your cursor over the timelines to get an idea of what I'm referencing and why I'm not too concerned.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating

* Just as a side note and not in response to your post Les, while comparing aggregated poll numbers to aggregated poll numbers, especially from the same source using the same methodology, makes sense—comparing a single poll to a set of aggregated polls makes little sense.
Anyway you add it up,  Biden's in a deep hole.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12247 on: November 08, 2021, 07:45:17 pm »

Why can't I respond to your post and skip reading the linked article?  I provide links on my posts when I quote them as a courtesy and to provide substantiation.  I then post my opinion on it.  People can give me their opinion without having to read the article.  That's OK with me.

  Your post had a lot of interesting things to say.  I drew conclusions and responded to it.  ISn't that the way people converse in person? No one sits there and reads an article while you're talking to someone.  Insisting that people watch your podtalks or read your articles is asking too much in many cases especially when you've done a good job summing it up or given an opinion someone can respond to.   

And that's precisely what happened. (Btw, you keep referring to it as my post when it was actually the introductory paragraph from the podcast page. Why do you doing that when you know it's misleading.) You made a comment about giving China a pass. Presumably that was your reaction to the introductory paragraph. However that was NOT a correct representation of what the podcast was about, so I pointed that out. You seem to have an objection to my pointing that out.

This is my last time at bat on this one.

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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12248 on: November 10, 2021, 09:42:18 am »

I heard that the price of Kodak film which I shoot is going up 20%.   So now I have a choice of shooting or eating Dunkin'.  The whole inflation rate is really bad.  It's gone up 6.2%, the worst in 30 years,  but only 4.6% if you stop eating, driving and heating your house.  That's comforting.

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

Inflation across a broad swath of products that consumers buy every day was even worse than expected in October, hitting its highest point in more than 30 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago. That compared to the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% against the 0.6% estimate.

Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.6% against the estimate of 0.4%. Annual core inflation ran at a 4.6% pace, compared to the 4% expectation and the highest since November 1990.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12249 on: November 11, 2021, 03:40:07 pm »

Here's an interview with one of the Washington Post reporters that contributed to the Post's multi-part story on the Jan 6th storming of the US Capitol, https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052346130/before-during-after-the-jan-6-attack-on-the-capitol. It's fascinating and revealing stuff.

Here's the introductory blurb about the interviewee and the story from Fresh Air's page: Why did our intelligence agencies — the FBI, the Capitol Police, the Secret Service — all fail to protect the Capitol from being attacked on January 6th? We talk with Carol Leonnig, a 'Washington Post' National Investigative Correspondent, who contributed to this week's three part series in the 'Post' investigating what happened before, during and after the Capitol siege. She'll tell us how Trump froze in place key federal agencies whose job it was to investigate and stop threats to national security. Leonnig is also the co-author of two books about the Trump presidency: 'A Very Stable Genius,' and 'I Alone Can Fix It,' as well as a recent book about the rise and fall of the Secret Service.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12250 on: November 11, 2021, 05:07:07 pm »

Here's an interview with one of the Washington Post reporters that contributed to the Post's multi-part story on the Jan 6th storming of the US Capitol, https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1052346130/before-during-after-the-jan-6-attack-on-the-capitol. It's fascinating and revealing stuff.

Here's the introductory blurb about the interviewee and the story from Fresh Air's page: Why did our intelligence agencies — the FBI, the Capitol Police, the Secret Service — all fail to protect the Capitol from being attacked on January 6th? We talk with Carol Leonnig, a 'Washington Post' National Investigative Correspondent, who contributed to this week's three part series in the 'Post' investigating what happened before, during and after the Capitol siege. She'll tell us how Trump froze in place key federal agencies whose job it was to investigate and stop threats to national security. Leonnig is also the co-author of two books about the Trump presidency: 'A Very Stable Genius,' and 'I Alone Can Fix It,' as well as a recent book about the rise and fall of the Secret Service.
The Capitol Police report to Congress, the Legislative Branch of government - Nancy Pelosi.  Congress controls them. They do not report to the president or Executive Branch of government like the FBI or Secret Service.  The commander of it was offered help and additional manpower from different agencies prior to Jan 6th.  He refused.  Why?  (Congress fired him afterwards for not doing his job.  He was later given another sweet job.)  I wonder if a democrat in Congress didn't tell the Capitol Police to stand down knowing that would allow a demonstration to turn into a riot.  Something that would make Republicans and Trump look bad.  Another game like the Russian collusion.

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12251 on: November 11, 2021, 05:14:06 pm »

Didn't Biden approve the Russian pipeline to Germany?  Another one that will be used for blackmail sometime in the future. Europe will have to beg the Russians while Biden begs the Arabs.  Hurry up and get your EV.

Belarus leader threatens to shut off natural gas to Europe (from Russia)
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suggested shutting off the flow of natural gas to Europe Thursday amid a threat of potential European Union sanctions imposed on the country for its handling of migrants.

"We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we shut off natural gas there?" Lukashenko said in comments first published by Belarusian news agency Belta, Reuters reported.

"Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians and other headless people think before speaking," the leader added.

The pipeline Lukashenko was referring to, the Yamal gas pipeline, carries Russian natural gas through Belarus to Poland and Germany, according to Reuters. Russia is an ally to Belarus.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/581136-belarus-leader-threatens-to-shut-off-natural-gas-to-europe

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12252 on: November 11, 2021, 05:21:24 pm »

The Capitol Police report to Congress, the Legislative Branch of government - Nancy Pelosi.  Congress controls them. They do not report to the president or Executive Branch of government like the FBI or Secret Service.  The commander of it was offered help and additional manpower from different agencies prior to Jan 6th.  He refused.  Why?  (Congress fired him afterwards for not doing his job.  He was later given another sweet job.)  I wonder if a democrat in Congress didn't tell the Capitol Police to stand down knowing that would allow a demonstration to turn into a riot.  Something that would make Republicans and Trump look bad.  Another game like the Russian collusion.
AHA! .... ?????

I don't think whatever sane citizen had to do anything that day to make ... Republicans and Trump look bad.... and they still look bad- that is worse.




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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12253 on: November 11, 2021, 10:23:56 pm »

Didn't Biden approve the Russian pipeline to Germany? ...

Why does Biden have to approve a deal between Germany and Russia?
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12254 on: November 12, 2021, 12:30:57 am »

Didn't Biden approve the Russian pipeline to Germany?  Another one that will be used for blackmail sometime in the future. Europe will have to beg the Russians while Biden begs the Arabs.  Hurry up and get your EV.

I don't know about Biden approving the Russian pipeline, he was mighty quick to cancel the Canadian pipeline.
But he recently discovered that the inflation is not transitory. He should have listened to you, Alan.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12255 on: November 12, 2021, 11:44:05 am »

Why does Biden have to approve a deal between Germany and Russia?

Because Germany is a member of NATO.  America protects Germany.  We have divisions of American troops there risking their lives for Germans to save their asses from the Bear.  So if the Russian do what Belarus is doing right now and blackmails them, how can America count on Germany to help us or themselves?  How can we help them if they open themselves to blackmail from the Russians who might threaten a shutdown of the pipeline during a cold winter if tensions arise between Europe and Russia? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12256 on: November 12, 2021, 11:48:33 am »

I don't know about Biden approving the Russian pipeline, he was mighty quick to cancel the Canadian pipeline.
But he recently discovered that the inflation is not transitory. He should have listened to you, Alan.
Well, I guess Biden figured Canada might blackmail us by cutting off the pipeline.  So he pre-empted that possibility. :)

James Clark

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12257 on: November 12, 2021, 12:18:48 pm »

The Capitol Police report to Congress, the Legislative Branch of government - Nancy Pelosi.  Congress controls them. They do not report to the president or Executive Branch of government like the FBI or Secret Service.  The commander of it was offered help and additional manpower from different agencies prior to Jan 6th.  He refused.  Why?  (Congress fired him afterwards for not doing his job.  He was later given another sweet job.)  I wonder if a democrat in Congress didn't tell the Capitol Police to stand down knowing that would allow a demonstration to turn into a riot.  Something that would make Republicans and Trump look bad.  Another game like the Russian collusion.

This seems like the most likely explanation, sure.   ???
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12258 on: November 12, 2021, 05:31:42 pm »

This seems like the most likely explanation, sure.   ???
Everyone acknowledges the Capitol Police were not prepared.  Why? 

PeterAit

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #12259 on: November 12, 2021, 05:53:44 pm »

The Capitol Police report to Congress, the Legislative Branch of government - Nancy Pelosi.  Congress controls them. They do not report to the president or Executive Branch of government like the FBI or Secret Service.  The commander of it was offered help and additional manpower from different agencies prior to Jan 6th.  He refused.  Why?  (Congress fired him afterwards for not doing his job.  He was later given another sweet job.)  I wonder if a democrat in Congress didn't tell the Capitol Police to stand down knowing that would allow a demonstration to turn into a riot.  Something that would make Republicans and Trump look bad.  Another game like the Russian collusion.

I hope that you are not serious. This is among the most asinine claptrap I have heard in a long time. Shame on you Alan!

But think--even if what you say was true, the riot still came from the Trumpists that gathered at the Capital. Y'know, the ones who brought pepper spray and wrist ties and a noose? Even without a single guard on duty a "peaceful demonstration" would not turn into a riot.
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