Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[JoeKitchen]

"The actual percentage is around 2%." Where did you dig up that nugget?

FBI crime stats. 

1 in 51 women are sexually assaulted, which is about 2%, very slightly less. 

[JoeKitchen]

The only link you decided to provide is this absurd bit of nonsense? Why would you want to associate yourself with that kind of silly video narrative which is indicative of nothing?

I thought it was funny, and by no means was I posting with the implication that it was a sound study and piece of reporting. 

It was just going to my point that State IDs, which so far as I know are the only kind of ID required under voter ID laws, are somehow hard to obtain is absurd.  Furthermore, the idea that a function adult in today's world does not have one is also absurd. 

With that said, I have worked with a couple of assistants who for some reason do not regularly carry their IDs on them and thus were not allowed to enter the building I photographing.  I no longer use these people, and they were both white in case you are wondering.  In occasion, my other assistant, who is black, was just beside himself on how someone could be that foolish to show up to a skyscraper in NYC with an ID and still expect to be let inside. 

[JoeKitchen]

I've asked the question before - can someone tell me what is required to obtain a voter ID ?
(spoiler : if one of the requirements is a utility bill or similar, then I can see why many may have difficulty).

So far as I know, it is just a state issued ID, either a driver's license or a non-driving ID (if you can not drive).  I do not think you need any special ID, and if you did, I would find that to stupid and going too far.   

The laws are called "Voter ID laws," which is kind of confusing (I admit) since it does seem to imply you need a separate special ID to vote (although I never thought of it like that until just now but see how you could). 

[Alan Klein]

And if you don't realize that artificially raising demand by pumping the economy full of money while decreasing supply through higher taxes and regulations can cause run away inflation, then you too dont know any more about economics then a ant. 

By hey, dont take my word for it, take the word of that far right wing radical economist Larry Summers, you know, one of Obama's wing men. 

Summers Sees ‘Least Responsible’ Fiscal Policy in 40 Years

Hmmm, 40 years ago was ... the 1970s, more or less, with run away inflation.  Now he did take a swipe at Republicans even though not one voted for the last bill; I guess partisans will always be partisans.  However the prognosis is not looking good.  I tend to ignore inflation concerns since they always seem to be cry from the right, but when smart left leaning people start warning of this, it is not something to ignore. 

We have a couple generations of Americans who have never experienced real inflation (including me) who are being fed this garbage that we can ignore all the rules of economics without any consequences, and a lot of people are believing it. 

I tend to believe the bill will be due soon, and, unfortunately, as is the case with most major recessions in the past, everything will be fine until, one day, it just suddenly isn't.  And by then we will have blown out our debt to levels where no one will want to buy our bonds, the already low interest rates will not be able to be lowered enough to have any effect, and austerity returns. 

What's worse, is that one of the tools the Fed uses to halt runaway inflation, raising interest rates, will be impossible to use.  That's because the country has so much debt we can't afford to pay higher interest on the $28T currently.  There would be nothing left to cover most things in the budget like social programs and defense.  So the only option is for the Fed to print more.  Runaway inflation will occur and a huge devaluation of the dollar.  We're all going to be poorer.

Printing money is like printing more photos of the same thing.  If you have a run of 25 to sell, if you increase them to a run of 50, each print will be worth less in the market.  It's the same with money.  The more you print, then the less each dollar bill is worth in purchasing power.

In the 1970's, I remember we had double-digit inflation.  But the Fed was able to raise interest on money into the double digits as well, up to 20% to reign in higher prices.   Imagine paying 15% mortgage rates? They won't be able to do that this time.  Paul Volker was the Fed chairman at the time who saved the economy.
https://www.thebalance.com/who-is-paul-volcker-3306157

[TechTalk]

FBI crime stats. 

1 in 51 women are sexually assaulted, which is about 2%, very slightly less.

So, comparing the total of both reported and unreported sexual assaults in surveys to only the reported crime statistics. There's something that doesn't seem quite right about that logic and statistical comparison.

[JoeKitchen]

“We are at an inflection point in American history. Down one path is a Trump-inspired white plutocracy, and down the other is a representative democracy.”

At least 250 new laws are under consideration in 43 states to limit mail, early in-person and Election Day voting.  A few  provisions of the For the People Act would make

• automatic voter registration the norm nationwide,
• effectively forbid racial and partisan gerrymandering of district lines, and
• establish national baselines for absentee voting,

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/inflection-point-congress-prepares-battle-over-massive-voting-rights-bill-n1262172

Your focus is oblivious to the need to expand voter ACCESSIBILITY in addition to ensuring proper and effective election supervision. Something you and der Kleine studiously avoid addressing.

How many in-person voting centres were operative throughout all 50 states in the 2020 election ?

Voting and districting should be the right of the states to implement, full stop.  If you really think that districting will be more fair if handled by the federal government, you're crazy.  Most bureaucrats are Dems, and will just gerrymander the districts in favor of Dems.  Furthermore, this bill is getting some pretty serious push back from the Black caucus (mostly Dems) due forbidding racial districting since many believe they would loose their seats.  Last I read a deal was in the works to protect these districts, which sounds oh so fair.  No system is perfect, but the idea that bigger government is better is stupid. 

I mean the federal government ruins everything it touches.  Just look back at the ObamaCare website roll out. 

Now insofar as voter registration being somehow difficult and that we need to the federal government to step in, that is nonsense.  I registered to vote in PA when I got my non-driving license ID at 18.  (I did not learn how to drive until I was 20).  They asked if I wanted to register to vote when putting my application, which I did not even consider was a thing to do.  I said yes, and that was it.  When I moved to NY and changed my license over, same exact thing.  When I moved back to PA, same thing again.  When my license expired last year, they asked if I wanted to update anything on my voter card, like address/district and party affiliation.  I fail to see how this is difficult. 

[Alan Klein]

So far as I know, it is just a state issued ID, either a driver's license or a non-driving ID (if you can not drive).  I do not think you need any special ID, and if you did, I would find that to stupid and going too far.   

The laws are called "Voter ID laws," which is kind of confusing (I admit) since it does seem to imply you need a separate special ID to vote (although I never thought of it like that until just now but see how you could). 

You have to be a citizen to vote. How do you stop non-citizens from voting without proper identification?  This is why Democrats want to do away with ID voting and why they encourage illegal immigration. These people get freebies from taxpayers and are indebted to Democrats who push these giveaways policies to support non-Americans.  They flood over our borders.  Within weeks they're collecting from the numerous social programs provided by states and the federal government.

[JoeKitchen]

So, comparing the total of both reported and unreported sexual assaults in surveys to only the reported crime statistics. There's something that doesn't seem quite right about that logic and statistical comparison.

True, it is near impossible to determine the exact percentage of women who are sexual assaulted, which you could also say about any crime really.  I was at a lecture 10 years ago given by a well known Columbia professor on urban development and I remember him saying the only two crime stats you can 100% rely on are murder and grand theft auto.  99% of murders are reported as murders and nearly all stolen cars are reported stolen since you can not get an insurance settlement without a police report.  Every other crime stat is up for debate. 

So if we really want to go down this road, then all and every crime stat (except for the two listed above) can be considered problematic.  Not exactly a helpful position.

However, we need to work with what we have, and the most accurate reporting and investigating on the subject is the FBI currently. 

[Manoli]

So far as I know, it is just a state issued ID, either a driver's license or a non-driving ID (if you can not drive).  I do not think you need any special ID, and if you did, I would find that to stupid and going too far.   

The laws are called "Voter ID laws," which is kind of confusing (I admit) since it does seem to imply you need a separate special ID to vote (although I never thought of it like that until just now but see how you could). 

Thank you, Joe.
ITM , I found a website that seems to (dare I say 'accurately') list the differences between states.

NCSL | Voter Identification Requirements | Voter ID Laws

Without wishing to be obtuse, is there any requirement to 'prove' residency in any one state ? And if there is, how is a change of state handled, particularly considering those states that allow same-day voter registration ?

If you really think that districting will be more fair if handled by the federal government, you're crazy. 

Thanks again for that - I'll take it as a compliment.  [/levity]

[JoeKitchen]

I'll remove this since you removed yours, James. 

Do me a favor though, check yourself. 

[Alan Klein]

Thank you, Joe.
ITM , I found a website that seems to (dare I say 'accurately') list the differences between states.

NCSL | Voter Identification Requirements | Voter ID Laws

Without wishing to be obtuse, is there any requirement to 'prove' residency in any one state ? And if there is, how is a change of state handled, particularly considering those states that allow same-day voter registration ?

Thanks again for that - I'll take it as a compliment.  [/levity]

Many states have various procedures for same-day voting and also for voting when your name isn't on the voting roll when you show up at the polls.  It may have been removed when they were purging rolls for example.  Those same-day votes are held on the side separately until the election officials approve the vote. I've only registered a couple of times in sixty years of voting and never had a problem.  YOu register once and don't even need an ID when you vote by mail.  All that was handled when you registered.  The whole argument by Democrats is to do away with electioneering, assisting voters when they fill out their ballots, harvesting ballots, and similar procedures that influence voters who to vote for or outright give the opportunity to commit what otherwise would have been a fraud.  OF course, their incentives are hidden behind calls of "racism" and "everyone should vote...." civic-mindedness.  They're playing games.

[TechTalk]

In the 1970's, I remember we had double-digit inflation.  But the Fed was able to raise interest on money into the double digits as well, up to 20% to reign in higher prices.   Imagine paying 15% mortgage rates? They won't be able to do that this time.  Paul Volker was the Fed chairman at the time who saved the economy.
https://www.thebalance.com/who-is-paul-volcker-3306157

I agree that Paul Volker is the one that deserves the lions share of the credit for bringing inflation under control in the early 1980s. It's fortunate that Carter nominated him as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979 and that Reagan renominated him for a second term even though Volker was a Democrat.

He also remained active in the economic affairs of the country after his chairmanship ended. Volker became Chair of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board shortly after President Obama took office in 2009. From your link...

How Volcker Created His Own Rule

In 2008, President Obama appointed Volcker to the Economic Recovery Advisory Board (2009-11). Volcker played a crucial role in shaping the board as he brought in leaders from both business and academia. They provided an independent perspective on handling the financial crisis. Volcker, who was 81 when he accepted the post, had been active in Obama's campaign.

Volcker blamed the 2008 financial crisis on poor regulation of the financial sector. As the board chair, he advocated tougher banking regulations with the Volcker Rule. It prohibits large banks from using customer deposits to trade for their profit. They can only do so on behalf of their clients. Those kinds of risks are why the 2008 bailouts were necessary. Banks may only trade to offset currency risks or to trade for a client.

Additional information on the Volker Rule...

https://www.thebalance.com/volcker-rule-summary

[James Clark]

I'll remove this since you removed yours, James. 

Do me a favor though, check yourself.

Or else what? 

Get outside yourself for a change (What I deleted, for reference, was Joe's explanation of how easy it was for Joe to register to vote, and another quote referenced below, to which I pointed out that Joe used the "I have a black friend" trope...).  Here's what you said:

In occasion, my other assistant, who is black, was just beside himself on how someone could be that foolish to show up to a skyscraper in NYC with an ID and still expect to be let inside.

And here's what you did.

To be clear, I'm not calling you a Nazi or an overt racist.  I am saying that you're using timeworn racist defenses to support a position.

[Robert Roaldi]

What's worse, is that one of the tools the Fed uses to halt runaway inflation, raising interest rates, will be impossible to use.  That's because the country has so much debt we can't afford to pay higher interest on the $28T currently.  There would be nothing left to cover most things in the budget like social programs and defense.  So the only option is for the Fed to print more.  Runaway inflation will occur and a huge devaluation of the dollar.  We're all going to be poorer.

Printing money is like printing more photos of the same thing.  If you have a run of 25 to sell, if you increase them to a run of 50, each print will be worth less in the market.  It's the same with money.  The more you print, then the less each dollar bill is worth in purchasing power.

In the 1970's, I remember we had double-digit inflation.  But the Fed was able to raise interest on money into the double digits as well, up to 20% to reign in higher prices.   Imagine paying 15% mortgage rates? They won't be able to do that this time.  Paul Volker was the Fed chairman at the time who saved the economy.
https://www.thebalance.com/who-is-paul-volcker-3306157

Runaway inflation?  Printing money? Not this again.

Would the country be better off with millions of people going bankrupt, not able to pay rent or health care costs. Is that worse than inflation?

Btw, I saw a scary stat yesterday, can't remember where so can't vouch for it, but they stated that 1 out of 3 GoFundMe campaigns in the US are to cover medical bills. For my money, that's a lot scarier thing than a few years of inflation, especially since it's likely not temporary.

How about getting Apple and Amazon et al. to pay taxes? Or are you afraid of them? Are you worried the iPhone 13 will cost too much? (Are they up to 13, I pay no attention to phones.)

It doesn't seem to bother you to keep 700 military bases operational around the globe, so why shouldn't the country help its own citizens in an emergency? Does Trump bragging about not paying taxes bother you a bit in this context?

What did Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan cost? You seem to be highly selective about what your government spends your money on?

If your society cannot help its own citizens in times of need, then what IS it for?

[TechTalk]

True, it is near impossible to determine the exact percentage of women who are sexual assaulted, which you could also say about any crime really.  I was at a lecture 10 years ago given by a well known Columbia professor on urban development and I remember him saying the only two crime stats you can 100% rely on are murder and grand theft auto.  99% of murders are reported as murders and nearly all stolen cars are reported stolen since you can not get an insurance settlement without a police report.  Every other crime stat is up for debate. 

So if we really want to go down this road, then all and every crime stat (except for the two listed above) can be considered problematic.  Not exactly a helpful position.

However, we need to work with what we have, and the most accurate reporting and investigating on the subject is the FBI currently.

Most crimes are very different in that they don't involve the same emotional issues which cause people not to report sexual assault. I've owned cars that were parked and damaged by hit and run drivers that left no note or were broken into. I've had break-ins and property stolen in my home twice. I reported them without any of the feelings that victims of sexual assault have reported. I didn't have any mixture of emotions of shame, or guilt, or embarrassment, or fear of recriminations, or of not being believed, etc. in reporting the crimes that I've reported. I don't think that I can imagine how it would make me feel to be assaulted in that way. I doubt if anyone can.

Victims of sexual assault sometimes never come to terms with their emotions in a way that allows them to discuss their experience, let alone report it. For the ones that are able, it sometimes takes years of emotional work to do so.

[Alan Klein]

Runaway inflation?  Printing money? Not this again.

Would the country be better off with millions of people going bankrupt, not able to pay rent or health care costs. Is that worse than inflation?

Btw, I saw a scary stat yesterday, can't remember where so can't vouch for it, but they stated that 1 out of 3 GoFundMe campaigns in the US are to cover medical bills. For my money, that's a lot scarier thing than a few years of inflation, especially since it's likely not temporary.

How about getting Apple and Amazon et al. to pay taxes? Or are you afraid of them? Are you worried the iPhone 13 will cost too much? (Are they up to 13, I pay no attention to phones.)

It doesn't seem to bother you to keep 700 military bases operational around the globe, so why shouldn't the country help its own citizens in an emergency? Does Trump bragging about not paying taxes bother you a bit in this context?

What did Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan cost? You seem to be highly selective about what your government spends your money on?

If your society cannot help its own citizens in times of need, then what IS it for?

We don't have the money.  Unfortunately,  we spent it all and then some.

[JoeKitchen]

Or else what? 

Get outside yourself for a change (What I deleted, for reference, was Joe's explanation of how easy it was for Joe to register to vote, and another quote referenced below, to which I pointed out that Joe used the "I have a black friend" trope...).  Here's what you said:

And here's what you did.

To be clear, I'm not calling you a Nazi or an overt racist.  I am saying that you're using timeworn racist defenses to support a position.

You really are a tool. 

First, with my assistants' story, I was being satirical directing it at progressives like you who insist that minorities would have a harder time then whites with Voter ID laws because somehow, even though you never explain how, minorities have a harder time getting and/or keeping IDs.  I was making fun of you and your views with this story.  You were the butt end of the joke, in case you were too dense to realize it. 

Second, why dont you prove me wrong James?  Why cant you start adding some bite with your bark?  Because up until now you have been just a whiner who has provided absolutely nothing in terms of proof to your statements on registering to vote.  Why dont you actually give me an example of a state that does not allow you to perform voter registration during driver license applications or renewals (for adults) and makes people go out of their way to register to vote. 

Please, provide us with proof, and more then just your feelings, because that is all you have given us so far on this.  Give me an example of a state where it is hard, or even just annoying, to register to vote.  Please. 

[TechTalk]

The word inflation mean expanding the money supply.

They are definitely closely linked, especially in regard to very high inflation rates or hyperinflation. They are not the same thing, however, and expanding the money supply is not a definition of inflation.

[TechTalk]

I mean the federal government ruins everything it touches.

That sounds rather narrow and extreme. Do you mean this as hyperbole or can you really not recall any degree of reasonable success in a federal program or action?

[Alan Klein]

Here's what you need to get a photo ID in Georgia which could then be used to register to vote.   Remember,  you need to prove you're an American citizen and a legal resident of the state of Georgia.   
https://dds.georgia.gov/list-acceptable-real-id-documents