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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 1293812 times)

JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1260 on: November 13, 2020, 01:14:56 pm »

Here is an older paper written in 2013 by economist Lion Hirth in which he predicts that initially when wind & solar are added to a energy market, they will often be cheaper in price then competitors.  However, after they assemble a certain percentage of the grid, the market value drops significantly and will cause the overall price of electricity to rise.  The reason is due to the inherent and unavoidable variable nature of wind and solar. 

The market value of variable renewables

So, in essence, when wind and solar are introduced to a market, they are initially a novelty that is not relied upon.  They will add electricity to the grid at what appears to be a cheaper rate and since the gird is by and large being energized by reliable base load sources, the unreliability of wind and solar does not effect the rate.  However, as soon as the percentage of power supplied to the gird from wind and solar becomes large enough that they are relied upon to provide power, the unreliable nature of both sources starts to become apparent and causes dramatic price increases.  IMPO, and just thinking this through a bit, those increase are likely due to having to maintain two different sources of energy, the wind/solar farms and the base load sources to provide the energy the 70+% of the time the farms are not and/or a supply lower then demand. 

We are at the beginning of this story in the USA. 
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 01:53:32 pm by JoeKitchen »
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John Camp

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1261 on: November 13, 2020, 01:16:15 pm »

A few thoughts about all of this:
I think green power (solar, wind, etc.) will become dominant in the future, but right now, it isn't. Hybrid, Plug-in hybrid, and all-electric cars are now (according to the feds) about 4% of cars. Electric generation is now about 17% renewable. By 2030, it'll be 24%. For those of you interested in making a few bucks, Exxon is now selling at $36 and has a better than 9% return in dividends. That will slowly change, but not in the next couple of years. Over the next couple of years, I expect its price will go back to the pre-covid level, in the 60s. You heard it here first.

IMHO, the future of clean energy is probably nuclear of some variety, but not fission. At least not for a long time.

We have several members here who belong to the Trump cult, and arguing won't change that. The attachment is not a rational one, but one of faith. It's like arguing to a devout Christian that there is not God. Doesn't work.

Pardons are generally the result of application and investigation, with the occasional corrupt pardon, like Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich, essentially the result of a bribe. Trump, of course, is in the process of setting the gold standard for corrupt pardons; a recent story somewhere in the MSM said that he was fascinated but the idea of pardons, these get-out-of-jail cards that he could pass out as favors to people who might do him some good in the future. Richard Nixon was never charged with a crime, and was preemptively pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford. Most presidential historian think the pardon was a good idea, although Ford was voted out of office, partly because of that pardon. (Ford was a president who was seriously damaged unfairly by the MSM.) In any case, the Nixon pardon demonstrates that a preemptive pardon is apparently legal.



« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 01:19:35 pm by John Camp »
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1262 on: November 13, 2020, 01:19:37 pm »

The article concluded that it was an internal disagreement that caused them to pull out.  Yet the writer offered no proof of that.  The law firm gave no reason.  If the article can conclude a political reason to make Trump look bad, something the fake press does all the time, so I can conclude a different reason just as likely.

You can conclude whatever you want. You often do. Doesn't make it true. Why don't you inquire of the Trump campaign why their law firm withdrew. Perhaps the law firm is prohibited by attorney-client privilege from discussing the reasons it withdrew without permission from its former client.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 03:53:47 pm by faberryman »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1263 on: November 13, 2020, 01:20:44 pm »

A few thoughts about all of this:
I think green power (solar, wind, etc.) will become dominant in the future, but right now, it isn't. Hybrid, Plug-in hybrid, and all-electric cars are now (according to the feds) about 4% of cars. Electric generation is now about 17% renewable. By 2030, it'll be 24%. For those of you interested in making a few bucks, Exxon is now selling at $36 and has a better than 9% return in dividends. That will slowly change, but not in the next couple of years. Over the next couple of years, I expect its price will go back to the pre-covid level, in the 60s. You heard it here first.

IMHO, the future of clean energy is probably nuclear of some variety, but not fission. At least not for a long time.

We have several members here who belong to then Trump cult, and arguing won't change that.

No, they will not, and it is you that belongs to the cult my friend. 

Another article: 

Germany Solar and Wind is Triple the Cost of France’s Nuclear and Will Last Half as Long

It appears that Germany is at the tail end of the prediction Hirth made in 2013 (see top of page).  It would be wise of us not to follow down the same doomed path. 

"What’s worse, because wind and solar are variable (they produce electricity only when the wind blows or the sun shines), they must be paired with other energy sources to support demand, and these are almost always fossil fuels. In the absence of enough nuclear energy, renewables are effectively prolonging the life of coal and gas plants that can produce power around the clock."
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 02:09:49 pm by JoeKitchen »
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1264 on: November 13, 2020, 01:35:18 pm »

I wasn't trying to insult you Frank, only help.  A lot of people where I live didn't know about this option even though it is available.  Or they were afraid to buy it from anyone but the owner of the electric lines think that it would be "bad" electricity or something.  In any case, you're in Tennessee?  Do you get TVA power which is very cheap?  If so what do you pay?  We pay around $.14/KWH.

Like I said, I have no idea what I pay. I looked it up because you are interested. The current seasonal rate is .09298 per kWh. There is also a TVA fuel cost adjustment of .00322 per kWh for November. I guess the seasonal rate changes with the seasons and the TVA fuel cost adjustment adjusts whenever TVA fuel cost changes. It also looks like there is a monthly service charge and a grid access charge, but the costs aren't listed. I have no idea how many kWh I use. I just pay the bill online when it comes in my email.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 02:22:48 pm by faberryman »
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armand

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1265 on: November 13, 2020, 01:46:58 pm »

An article about the current status with Covid within the healthcare: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/third-surge-breaking-healthcare-workers/617091/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share

I'm attaching a current census from a nearby hospital. The situation is bad; the only reason it's still still running is because we had some time to get ready but that can only do so much. Once the nurses crash, everything goes downhill. If you thought it was bad in the spring, wait for it.
Wear the damn masks, keep the distance and minimize travel if it's not really necessary. Try to behave like adults and not spoiled brats.

JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1266 on: November 13, 2020, 01:52:43 pm »

An article about the current status with Covid within the healthcare: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/third-surge-breaking-healthcare-workers/617091/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share

I'm attaching a current census from a nearby hospital. The situation is bad; the only reason it's still still running is because we had some time to get ready but that can only do so much. Once the nurses crash, everything goes downhill. If you thought it was bad in the spring, wait for it.
Wear the damn masks, keep the distance and minimize travel if it's not really necessary. Try to behave like adults and not spoiled brats.

Well, I must admit, you caught my attention with this.  Thanks for sharing.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1267 on: November 13, 2020, 02:00:27 pm »

The beginning of the end (which has taken far too long):

Trump campaign drops Arizona lawsuit acknowledging it's moot
Lawyers for the Trump campaign dropped its lawsuit seeking a review of all ballots cast on Election Day after finding that the margin of victory for the presidential contest in Arizona could not be overcome.

“Since the close of yesterday’s hearing, the tabulation of votes statewide has rendered unnecessary a judicial ruling as to the presidential electors,” the Trump campaign wrote in a filing. It said it did want the judge to rule on their requests to review votes for two down-ballot races. 


As to how well Trump and company are handling all this:
Trump campaign eliminates "voter fraud" hotline after it's flooded with prank calls.
Movement or comments on the Pandemic? Of course not.
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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1268 on: November 13, 2020, 02:12:16 pm »

Nice try. Yes, the certification dates have passed in 7 states, but no word about if certification took actually place in those 7 states yet.
Oh poor boy, this just in:
Michigan judge rejects demand to block certification of Biden win in Detroit
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1269 on: November 13, 2020, 02:17:31 pm »

As to how well Trump and company are handling all this:
Trump campaign eliminates "voter fraud" hotline after it's flooded with prank calls.

The funniest one I read was a caller describing in detail the appearance of the Hamburglar and said he appeared to be stuffing ballots in a bag loaded with hamburgers. I think Tiktok got involved in the game. A lot of people appear to be giddy with excitement.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1270 on: November 13, 2020, 02:23:25 pm »

The funniest one I read was a caller describing in detail the appearance of the Hamburglar and said he appeared to be stuffing ballots in a bag loaded with hamburgers. I think Tiktok got involved in the game. A lot of people appear to be giddy with excitement.
This is hilarious too and a sign he's losing it (his mind and of course the election): Trump Takes Credit For 'Most Secure Election Ever' But Says It Was 'Rigged” in a tweet.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV6ZVQq2jtw

Oh, Biden just won Georgia. By 14K.
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1271 on: November 13, 2020, 02:27:35 pm »

Trump campaign drops Arizona lawsuit acknowledging it's moot
Lawyers for the Trump campaign dropped its lawsuit seeking a review of all ballots cast on Election Day after finding that the margin of victory for the presidential contest in Arizona could not be overcome.

“Since the close of yesterday’s hearing, the tabulation of votes statewide has rendered unnecessary a judicial ruling as to the presidential electors,” the Trump campaign wrote in a filing. It said it did want the judge to rule on their requests to review votes for two down-ballot races.


So I guess it was about winning and not about ensuring free and fair elections for all Americans after all. Who knew?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 02:30:51 pm by faberryman »
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1272 on: November 13, 2020, 02:37:47 pm »

Trumps words come back to haunt him:
2016: Donald Trump and his campaign manager describing his election victory as a “landslide,” Trump’s margin of victory actually ranks among the closest in the Electoral College.
With the Michigan election results were certified, Trump expanded his Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton to 306 to 232.
Today all states called: Biden 306 to Trump 232.
Biden election victory a “landslide”? Trump loss a ”Landslide”? Biden wins; that's what counts.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 02:40:50 pm by digitaldog »
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1273 on: November 13, 2020, 03:01:20 pm »

I am sure this will come as a disappointment to some.

President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid advisors nix idea of U.S. lockdown to curb pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/biden-advisor-dr-gounder-says-covid-advisory-panel-doesnt-support-full-us-lockdown.html
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1274 on: November 13, 2020, 03:10:23 pm »

MSNBC says Trump will hold a press conference at 4:00 pm ET. You might think it would be a concession, but he tweeted this an hour ago, so who knows what he will say:

"Heartwarming to see all of the tremendous support out there, especially the organic Rallies that are springing up all over the Country, including a big one on Saturday in D.C. I may even try to stop by and say hello. This Election was Rigged, from Dominion all the way up & down!"

And this one four hours ago:

"For years the Dems have been preaching how unsafe and rigged our elections have been. Now they are saying what a wonderful job the Trump Administration did in making 2020 the most secure election ever. Actually this is true, except for what the Democrats did. Rigged Election!"

I don't recall any Democrats saying any of that. Trump makes up a lot of stuff.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 04:09:26 pm by faberryman »
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armand

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1275 on: November 13, 2020, 03:16:15 pm »

I am sure this will come as a disappointment to some.

President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid advisors nix idea of U.S. lockdown to curb pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/biden-advisor-dr-gounder-says-covid-advisory-panel-doesnt-support-full-us-lockdown.html

Nobody really wants full lockdowns, all the normal people realize there has to be balance. The claims that the liberals are drooling for full lockdowns is just a republican fantasy; the elections are over, they might as well drop the line. The focus should be on saving lives, the dead are not coming back.

digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1276 on: November 13, 2020, 03:18:22 pm »

MSNBC says Trump will hold a press conference at 4:00 pm ET. You might think it would be a concession...
Absolutely not chance of that. None. Zero, Nada. I'd LOVE to be wrong. Anyone want to place bets?
Now perhaps he will address the Covid situation? Perhaps?
Fun fact, when he speaks later in his first public comments since losing, he's snapping the longest stretch of silence in his presidency. Telling.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1277 on: November 13, 2020, 03:31:25 pm »

To the question why Trump is not accepting defeat?

Here is the answer:
1. It’s not him acting as a kid
2. It’s him, and some of his hard core supporters, attempting to create out of thin air a myth that Trump voters got screwed and that Biden is not a legitimate President. Trump knows that this kind of sentiment is needed to keep voters active against Biden
3. It’s also a move to prevent Democrats from investigating fraud that likely happened in States won by Republicans in the Senate race, which is the only real relevant aspect of this election. This wasn’t an election for President, Trump knew for long he was not going to win. The main stake is senate control.

And Trump is tapping in the holier than you attitude of Democrats here, knowing that Democrats will be prevented from investigating electoral fraud because they want to differentiate themselves from Trump. But odds are that if Republicans won the Senate it will have been due to electoral fraud in their favor.

No I cannot prove it, but as Craig writes, there is a possibility that massuve electoral fraud occurred. And logic tells is that it was in favor of Republicans in the Senate race.

Cheers,
Bernard

faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1278 on: November 13, 2020, 03:37:07 pm »

No I cannot prove it, but as Craig writes, there is a possibility that massuve electoral fraud occurred. And logic tells is that it was in favor of Republicans in the Senate race.

Can you step us through that logic?
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faberryman

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #1279 on: November 13, 2020, 04:00:11 pm »

It may be that Trump's press conference will be a dud. The chatter is that it will be about taking credit for the Pfizer vaccine. Tweet from half an hour ago:

"Now it is learned that the horrendous Dominion Voting System was used in Arizona (and big in Nevada). No wonder the result was a very close loss!"
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 04:04:25 pm by faberryman »
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