Poll

Who do you think will be sworn in as President on Jan. 21?

Biden
- 14 (66.7%)
Trump
- 7 (33.3%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: November 02, 2020, 06:25:59 pm


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Author Topic: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)  (Read 260098 times)

Craig Lamson

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #820 on: August 17, 2020, 02:25:45 pm »

News to me, but I have only lived in three states.

Just a quick check and Iowa came up first and it says political parties may solicit and collect absentee requests and may reprint the origianl form in their mailers.  I'm too lazy to search for more.
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #821 on: August 17, 2020, 02:40:42 pm »

They used the dossier after getting rid of Steele who put it together with supposed Russian spies he knew.  The FBI doubted that much of it was credible.  Yet they used it anyway to support their case to the FISA court.

I have heard this said before, but I have not heard any explanation about how exactly the FBI used the Steel dossier to support their case, other than it appeared in a footnote.

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Something new from three days ago regarding Carter Page. An FBI lawyer who didn't like Trump will plead guilty for lying in emails. It's part of a separate probe into the investigation of the investigation. It's new information so I'm not familiar with all the details.  However, here's part of what it's about from Washington Post. 

"A former FBI lawyer has agreed to plead guilty to altering an email that helped justify surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser as part of the 2016 investigation into Russian interference in the election, according to his lawyer and a person familiar with the matter.

Kevin Clinesmith, who worked in the FBI general counsel’s office, is expected to admit he doctored an email so it said that former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page was not a source for the CIA, even though Page previously had a relationship with the agency. Relying on what Clinesmith had said, the FBI ultimately did not disclose Page’s relationship with the CIA as it applied to renew a warrant to monitor him as a possible agent of a foreign power."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/kevin-clinesmith-fbi-trump-russia-john-durham/2020/08/14/2f579994-de26-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html

I read the article yesterday, but am on a different computer and can't access WaPo articles today. I thought this had to do with renewing the FISA warrant in 2017. In January the DOJ declared that renewal and a subsequent renewal invalid, so this is not exactly news. Anyway, it has nothhing to do with Trump. The DOJ has not determined the Carter Page FISA warrant mentioning the Steel dossier in a footnote was invalid.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 03:01:34 pm by faberryman »
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #822 on: August 17, 2020, 02:48:46 pm »

Just a quick check and Iowa came up first and it says political parties may solicit and collect absentee requests and may reprint the origianl form in their mailers.  I'm too lazy to search for more.

I am not surprised, and am likewise too lazy to look for other examples.
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Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #823 on: August 17, 2020, 03:05:23 pm »

I have heard this said before, but I have not heard any explanation about how exactly they used the Steel dossier to support their case.

I read the article yesterday, but am on a different computer and can't access WaPo articles today. I thought this had to do with renewing the FISA warrant in 2017. In January the DOJ declared that renewal and a subsequent renewal invalid. Nothing to do with Trump. The DOJ has not determined the Carter Page FISA warrant mentioning the Steele dossier in a footnote was invalid.
In order for surveillance subpoenas to continue, the FISA court requires periodic corroboration of its need. The dossier, paid to British spy Steele by Hillary Clinton,  was used as that evidence. The FBI presented it to the FISA court knowing that the FBI fired Steele and largely suspected the dossier had little credibility.  Nor did they tell the court it was produced by the Democrats, the opposition party to Trump. So they were using phoney political material to fool the court in keeping the subpoenas going.  They lied to the court to go after Trump.  Obama knew about this all along.

The worse part is that all this BS investigation became the fodder that was used to push for the two-year Mueller investigation to destroy the president politically.  Every day the president was accused of treason and conspiracy. It tied his hands in dealing with Russia.  It wasted his time that could have been used in dealing better with America's problems.  Whether you like Trump or not, this whole fiasco hurt the country.

Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #824 on: August 17, 2020, 03:14:09 pm »

Here's the form you need to vote by mail in my NJ county.  My wife and I already did this.  No big deal.  Trump says this method is fine.
https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/assets/pdf/forms-vote-by-mail/vote-mail-ballot-middlesex-english.pdf

I think my county is going for Biden/Harris who's mom in Asian Indian.  This is the giveaway. It was from the links to order the form in the language of your choosing.

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - English

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Espanol

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Gujarati

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Hindi

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Punjabi

faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #825 on: August 17, 2020, 03:22:15 pm »

In order for surveillance subpoenas to continue, the FISA court requires periodic corroboration of its need. The dossier, paid to British spy Steele by Hillary Clinton,  was used as that evidence. The FBI presented it to the FISA court knowing that the FBI fired Steele and largely suspected the dossier had little credibility.  Nor did they tell the court it was produced by the Democrats, the opposition party to Trump. So they were using phoney political material to fool the court in keeping the subpoenas going.  They lied to the court to go after Trump.  Obama knew about this all along.

Like I said, I've heard all of this before. But what you offer is conclusory statements without providing an explanation of exactly how they used the Steel dossier to support their case. It can't have been very important if it was in a footnote. Are you saying that the FISA court would have never granted the warrant but for the reference to the Steel dossier in a footnote? Besides, all this took place after Carter Page left the Trump campaign, so I'm not sure I see its relevance.

Quote
The worse part is that all this BS investigation became the fodder that was used to push for the two-year Mueller investigation to destroy the president politically.  Every day the president was accused of treason and conspiracy. It tied his hands in dealing with Russia.  It wasted his time that could have been used in dealing better with America's problems.  Whether you like Trump or not, this whole fiasco hurt the country.

Like I said, if all of this is true, Trump has a beef with Rod Rosenstein, his hand picked Deputy AG. He could have fired him and Mueller. He just chickened out because of the bad press Nixon got for the Friday Night Massacre. It is not like Trump is a man of principal. He doesn't have any except what's best for him. Besides, if he knew he was innocent, he could bitch and moan about it all day, every day, for years to keep his base riled up, and in the end be vindicated. There is nothing like the redemption of a victim for sympathy. Do you think he has gained or lost any voters over this? Do you have any support for your answer.

I'll ask again, does anyone other than Trump, David Nunes, and you care about this any more? Is this an issue for 2020?

« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 04:17:15 pm by faberryman »
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TechTalk

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #826 on: August 17, 2020, 04:09:17 pm »

Here's the form you need to vote by mail in my NJ county.  My wife and I already did this.  No big deal.  Trump says this method is fine.
https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/assets/pdf/forms-vote-by-mail/vote-mail-ballot-middlesex-english.pdf

I think my county is going for Biden/Harris who's mom in Asian Indian.  This is the giveaway. It was from the links to order the form in the language of your choosing.

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - English

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Espanol

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Gujarati

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Hindi

Middlesex County Vote By Mail Ballot Application - Punjabi

Given the fact that Middlesex County in New Jersey has the highest concentration of Asian Indian US citizens of any county in the United States, it's not really a surprise. With the exception of Bergen County which also offers the ballot in Korean, every other New Jersey county offers the ballot in just two languages, English and Spanish.

https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/vote-by-mail.shtml

Given that your county is reliably heavily Democratic and that Clinton beat Trump by nearly 20 points there in 2016, I'd say that this is your most reliable prediction to date.
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #827 on: August 17, 2020, 04:23:46 pm »

Here's the form you need to vote by mail in my NJ county.  My wife and I already did this.  No big deal.  Trump says this method is fine.
https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/assets/pdf/forms-vote-by-mail/vote-mail-ballot-middlesex-english.pdf

I think my county is going for Biden/Harris who's mom in Asian Indian.  This is the giveaway. It was from the links to order the form in the language of your choosing.

I may be naive, but is anyone really going to vote for Biden, who otherwise would have voted for Trump, because Harris's mother was born in India.
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Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #828 on: August 17, 2020, 04:29:04 pm »

Like I said, I've heard all of this before. But what you offer is conclusory statements without providing an explanation of exactly how they used the Steel dossier to support their case. It can't have been very important if it was in a footnote. Are you saying that the FISA court would have never granted the warrant but for the reference to the Steel dossier in a footnote? Besides, all this took place after Carter Page left the Trump campaign, so I'm not sure I see its relevance.

Like I said, if all of this is true, Trump has a beef with Rod Rosenstein, his hand picked Deputy AG. He could have fired him and Mueller. He just chickened out because of the bad press Nixon got for the Friday Night Massacre. It is not like Trump is a man of principal. He doesn't have any except what's best for him. Besides, if he knew he was innocent, he could bitch and moan about it all day, every day, for years to keep his base riled up, and in the end be vindicated. There is nothing like the redemption of a victim for sympathy. Do you think he has gained or lost any voters over this? Do you have any support for your answer.

I'll ask again, does anyone other than Trump, David Nunes, and you care about this any more? Is this an issue for 2020?


When the government police services use extra-legal procedures to go after a political opponent, a president, to destroy him, yes, that a pretty important issue.  Next time it could be a Democrat president.  Regardless of who it is, it's dangerous and destructive for the country.  It tried to destroy the democratic principles and legitimacy of the government.  I'm surprised you can't see that but of course you don't like Trump.  But you ought to look beyond that

Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #829 on: August 17, 2020, 04:37:47 pm »

Given the fact that Middlesex County in New Jersey has the highest concentration of Asian Indian US citizens of any county in the United States, it's not really a surprise. With the exception of Bergen County which also offers the ballot in Korean, every other New Jersey county offers the ballot in just two languages, English and Spanish.

https://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/vote-by-mail.shtml

Given that your county is reliably heavily Democratic and that Clinton beat Trump by nearly 20 points there in 2016, I'd say that this is your most reliable prediction to date.
Thanks for doing the study. I didn't know we had so many Asian Indians.  Close by, there's a place that does Indian weddings that's very interesting.  Loads of Indian doctors here.  Regarding voting, that's the reason I was planning to vote at home.  It's not worth the effort voting at the polling place.  I'm use to not winning living in Democrat NJ and Democrat NY all my life.  You can count Republican wins on your toes.  :)

faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #830 on: August 17, 2020, 04:42:14 pm »

When the government police services use extra-legal procedures to go after a political opponent, a president, to destroy him, yes, that a pretty important issue.  Next time it could be a Democrat president.  Regardless of who it is, it's dangerous and destructive for the country.  It tried to destroy the democratic principles and legitimacy of the government.  I'm surprised you can't see that but of course you don't like Trump.  But you ought to look beyond that

You still haven't told me what these extra-legal procedures to go after a political opponent were. This FISA stuff was all done after he left the Trump campaign. After he left the campaign even Trump said he was not part of the campaign. Trump said as far as he knew he was just the coffee boy. Why would anyone with the intent of destroying our democracy pick poor Carter Page the coffee boy as the lynchpin of their conspiracy. I mean the guy can barely tie his shoes.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 05:32:00 pm by faberryman »
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Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #831 on: August 17, 2020, 04:43:22 pm »

I may be naive, but is anyone really going to vote for Biden, who otherwise would have voted for Trump, because Harris's mother was born in India.
Well she wasn't picked because she's Indian.  But I suppose many Republican Indians will vote for her out of pride.   American Indians do very well.  There are huge numbers of doctors here in NJ who have a lot of money and investments who are probably Republicans.  I suppose Pakistani Democrats might now vote for Trump.  It will even out. 

Alan Klein

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #832 on: August 17, 2020, 04:46:24 pm »

You still haven't told me what these extra-legal procedures to go after a political opponent were.
Frank, I've explained it above.  Enough!

faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #833 on: August 17, 2020, 04:52:57 pm »

Frank, I've explained it above.  Enough!

You haven't explained anything. You have just made a bunch of conclusory statements.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #834 on: August 17, 2020, 04:53:31 pm »

This election is about to get started!  Oh yeah DNC convention tonight!

If you had asked me a month ago, my money would have been on Biden, but now I think Trump is going to pull it off. 

News story today in my local Philly paper, with the virtual learning the school districts have put in place, private & charter schools are seeing a huge increase in demand.  A buddy of mine with two kids just tried to get his enrolled in a private Catholic school, but they are at max enrollment now.  I went to Catholic school from K through 12 and decreasing enrollment was always an issue.  It's been years since I've heard Catholic schools turning kids away due to capacity. 

Now is when the actual policies of Trump vs. Biden will be looked at, and (by polling) many more Americans support the Trump agenda.  I was talking to a recent former moderate Blue Dog today, and he had to switch due to policy.  The Dems just went off the deep end with policy according to him. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #835 on: August 17, 2020, 05:35:27 pm »

I just love this irony! 

Crowd protests outside US Postmaster's North Carolina home

It is too dangerous to vote in person, so we must vote by mail, but it is perfectly safe to protest en mass outside the post master general's house. 
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #836 on: August 17, 2020, 05:49:50 pm »

I just love this irony! 

Crowd protests outside US Postmaster's North Carolina home

It is too dangerous to vote in person, so we must vote by mail, but it is perfectly safe to protest en mass outside the post master general's house.

Maybe they were protesting on behalf of their grandmothers.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #837 on: August 17, 2020, 05:52:27 pm »

Maybe they were protesting on behalf of their grandmothers.

Yeah okay, more like people who like causing trouble causing trouble. 

But anyway, keep in mind, he's not my guy, but the protesters' guy. 

Fauci defends voting by mail if 'you don't want to take the chance' in person
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faberryman

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #838 on: August 17, 2020, 06:02:14 pm »

Fauci defends voting by mail if 'you don't want to take the chance' in person

But remember what Alan says about Fauci: he is only considering the medical aspect. You are going to need some experts on the post office to opine on how likely your ballot is to reach its destination, and some election experts to opine on how likely it is your vote will be counted if it gets there.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: US Elections 2020 (geopolitics, informed debate, no ad hominems)
« Reply #839 on: August 17, 2020, 06:35:23 pm »

But remember what Alan says about Fauci: he is only considering the medical aspect. You are going to need some experts on the post office to opine on how likely your ballot is to reach its destination, and some election experts to opine on how likely it is your vote will be counted if it gets there.

The USPS has already opined on this and the opinion is not in favor of mail in voting. 

There are two types of mail for letters, first class and marketing class, and under normal circumstances it takes 2 to 3 days and 4 to 7 days for first and marketing class to reach its destination, respectively.  Now, since it would be considered voter suppression if you required people to buy their own stamp and/or forcing people to pay to vote (which will be viewed as a racial issue by the Dems), all mail in ballots will come with a pre-stamped envelopes.  It is almost certainly the case the states will be using marketing class.  Marketing class is almost half the price of first class and will save a lot of money (I know from my own business), and since government always takes the cheapest way out I doubt this will be different.  Marketing class postage also can only be printed on the envelope (they do not make marketing class stamps), which are almost never post marked.  This makes it impossible to know when they were mailed. 

Now, with the pandemic, these delivery times may have been extended in certain areas (that are constantly changing based on conditions on the ground) due to variety of issues, some of which will not be fixed by merely throwing money at them.  You combine that with most states requiring that ballots be received by election day, at the latest, but no more then four days beforehand, and the whole thing is destined to become a mess. 

If you mail early to make sure you votes gets in in an area where the mail has not been effected, it may be received too early and invalidated.  If you mail it in on time but suddenly there is a delay in your area, your vote may get invalidated by being received too late.  Then combine that with the large number of people who will forget to sign and a lot of ballots will be thrown out this year. 

Like I said, if you want to go down this road, be my guest.  Many more Dems plan on voting by mail then Republicans, and after the NYC primary and Iowa caucus it really seems like the Democrats need to learn the hard way. 
« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 06:41:23 pm by JoeKitchen »
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