PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[hogloff]

Maybe people would have more respect for masks today if the experts like Dr. Fauci didn't lie to everyone in the beginning.  At that time they told us masks don't protect us so people wouldn't hoard them and prevent the short supply from going to medical workers.  They were not up front with the truth.  Like other "science", the public gets deceived and lose trust in the science itself.

What about Trump out rightly refusing to wear one...maybe, just maybe this lack of leadership has much more affect on the people than what Fauci said 2 months ago.

[kers]

If a president does not take Covid-19 serious, the people don't think they have to take it serious...
Bad management/ leadership to contain the virus is the result we see.

[Paulo Bizarro]

It sure seems that COVID-19 is spiraling out of control in Texas. Fourteen continuous days of record hospitalizations. Fifty-five hundred new cases today. The governor has outlawed elective surgeries in the four largest counties to preserve ICU space. Houston is already out of ICU beds. Florida, Arizona and California aren't doing much better. Still waiting for the virus to magically go away.

Is a mandatory face mask requirement during a pandemic really such an intolerable impingement on personal liberty?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/texas-gov-abbott-pauses-states-reopening-plan-as-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-rise.html

These states are approaching the risk of what NY went through a couple of months back. The virus took its time spreading, but without efficient mitigation measures, it gets everywhere.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Democratic panic pornographers are panicking and doubling down on panic porn.

[jeremyrh]

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Gonna be very small audience, Jeremy.

[jeremyrh]

Gonna be very small audience, Jeremy.

You and Trump.  Oh, and Bolsonaro.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Democratic panic pornographers are panicking and doubling down on panic porn.

For those who don't believe me or Trump, here is what our very own Jim Kasson has to say on the same subject (bold mine):

Nationwide, we are seeing more cases than ever before
In California, we are seeing far more cases than ever before
Hospitalization rates are falling.
Both in California and nationwide, the case fatality rate (CFR) is falling towards 2%.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) probably about a tenth of that.

Full analysis, with a lots of graphs (for Bart):

https://www.kasson.com/bleeding_edge/the-bleeding-edge/covid-19-spikes-nationwide-in-california/?fbclid=IwAR3YAdPcPGRZvydfJNzu_W6SgVpZeYr8JFcNhokyXqMm6RkCfh6eIOU0Aw4

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...

[Alan Klein]

If a president does not take Covid-19 serious, the people don't think they have to take it serious...
Bad management/ leadership to contain the virus is the result we see.

I agree that Trump not wearing a mask encourages others to act similarly.  But he says that others should wear a mask.  He chooses not too.  He does that because it shows that he's confident that it's going to work out.  He's a marketeer.  He's selling confidence.   Is it better to see a president locked up in his basement hiding?  What kind of encouragement and hope does that portray to the average person scared witless about the future? We need to see our leaders leading the charge, not hiding in the background. If he did what Biden is doing, you'd be calling him a coward.  No matter what he does, he's wrong.  I get it.

The country is opening up and becoming more relaxed about the disease not because of Trump only.  Governors are pushing opening as well.  They're the main deciders of these things, not the President.  He yells a lot.  But it is state governments that are making the decisions. 

Governors are terrified that their states and residents will wind up in the poor house.  State treasuries are emptying out. Personally, my wife and I get our pensions from NYC/NYS.  Will those continue in the future as NY goes broke?  Unlike the Federal government, states can't print dollars.  They depend on taxes. New Jersey where I now live is also going broke.  Certainly property, sales, and state income taxes will be going up as the state's coffers are emptying out.  State taxes on gasoline are reduced a lot as no one's driving much.  I think I filled up the two car's we use once or twice in three months when I usually do that every two weeks or so.  All the state sales tax on eating out is gone for three months.  So the point is governors are pushing their states to open up which causes more cases.  There's just no way around that.  Pay now or pay later. 

[Manoli]

For those who don't believe me or Trump ...

[Alan Klein]

Covid seems to be working its way across the country from the Northeast. I guess it will burn out by the end of August based on how long it took to go through NY and NJ.  The charts you posted don;t say much.  The first doesn;t indicate how many people actually have the virus.  It's being estimated that there are ten times the number who actually have had it but without symptoms or minor ones.  That changes the first chart substantially We really don't know the actual statistics country to country.  Record keeping is widely different among nations and fraught with inaccuracies.

The second chart disproves your point.  It shows a downward band that has decreasing up and down waves.  You really have to be more selective if you want to "prove" a point. 

[faberryman]

Covid seems to be working its way across the country from the Northeast. I guess it will burn out by the end of August based on how long it took to go through NY and NJ.

I am pretty sure that's not how it works. Making shit up does have the advantage of not having to believe the experts.

[elliot_n]

For those who don't believe me or Trump, here is what our very own Jim Kasson has to say on the same subject (bold mine):

The death rate for hospitalised Covid patients has been falling dramatically in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53192532

[Alan Klein]

I am pretty sure that's not how it works. Making shit up does have the advantage of not having to believe the experts.

You don't seem very sure of anything.  What is your prediction?  At least I'm willing to take a risk and give one.  It's based on how long it took NY/NJ to go through the worst.  That seems pretty reasonable to me.  I'll let others judge if it seems reasonable to them.

What are you basing your predictions on?

[Paulo Bizarro]

Democratic panic pornographers are panicking and doubling down on panic porn.

Sure, whatever he says, right?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

The test units for USA is "not clear". Several countries report number of tests either as number of people tested, or number of testing samples.Even so, the USA is far from being the country that has more tests per capita.

Deaths per million is 366, nothing to write home about.

The "we are finding more because we are testing like crazy" theory is bogus. You are finding them because they exist.

[faberryman]

You don't seem very sure of anything.  What is your prediction?  At least I'm willing to take a risk and give one.  It's based on how long it took NY/NJ to go through the worst.  That seems pretty reasonable to me.  I'll let others judge if it seems reasonable to them.

What are you basing your predictions on?

Tell me why I quoted the lines from your post that I did. Hint: it's got nothing to do with predictions. Extra credit if you explain the epidemiology involved.

[BobShaw]

The "we are finding more because we are testing like crazy" theory is bogus. You are finding them because they exist.

You won't get rid of it unless you test. The US test rate is only about average, but came too late anyway.
When the patients arrive almost dead to the hospital is too late.

Here is Australia we had no deaths for over a month, and now we have had two and a spike in cases in one state.

From the start though we have not had a mask policy. Well actually we did, the policy was that masks were not necessary, and that has been the case.
Masks do not protect the wearer, they protect other people.
Basically the people who would wear masks voluntarily are those that care about other people and therefore didn't get it in the first place because they took precautions.
The ones that are reckless probably wouldn't wear them anyway, unless to hide their identity.

[Alan Klein]

You won't get rid of it unless you test. The US test rate is only about average, but came too late anyway.
When the patients arrive almost dead to the hospital is too late.

Here is Australia we had no deaths for over a month, and now we have had two and a spike in cases in one state.

From the start though we have not had a mask policy. Well actually we did, the policy was that masks were not necessary, and that has been the case.
Masks do not protect the wearer, they protect other people.
Basically the people who would wear masks voluntarily are those that care about other people and therefore didn't get it in the first place because they took precautions.
The ones that are reckless probably wouldn't wear them anyway, unless to hide their identity.

How does testing get rid of it?