COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[DP]

In fighting the Covid-19 disease, a switch to a healthier diet might be more effective in saving lives than the hydroxychloroquine.

diabet once you get it is forever - so it is too late for fatties to atone

[LesPalenik]

diabet once you get it is forever - so it is too late for fatties to atone

It's never too late. Perhaps the best example is Ray Kurzweil, a scientist, futurist and inventor who beat his diabetes by stopping taking insulin and changed drastically his diet.

At 35, Kurzweil was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Unsatisfied with his medical treatment, he stopped taking insulin injections and crafted his own diet and supplement program.

He is now in his seventies. Since 2012, he's been working at Google as the director of engineering, I'm not sure if he still works there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
https://www.wired.com/2002/11/ray-kurzweils-plan-never-die/

[armand]

It's never too late. Perhaps the best example is Ray Kurzweil, a scientist, futurist and inventor who beat his diabetes by stopping taking insulin and changed drastically his diet.

He is now in his seventies. Since 2012, he's been working at Google as the director of engineering, I'm not sure if he still works there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
https://www.wired.com/2002/11/ray-kurzweils-plan-never-die/

While that is possible in some cases, it's unreasonable to think that most people will get the same results. Losing weight can reverse some milder conditions, and it's a standard recommendation along with a better diet; thing is not that many people are able to get to that point despite being encouraged to do so. That's part of the reason there are so many weight loss programs out there, it's not easy to lose weight AND stay that way.

[LesPalenik]

You are right. For many people, taking pills seems easier than to change their life style and diet. For me, taking medications to counteract some symptoms would be the last resort.

[dreed]

I will try to dig up the original article, but it goes something like this.

* 99.7% of covid-19 transmission is inside buildings.
* 00.3% of covid-19 transmission happens outside.

Of course this is assuming someone doesn't breath/cough/spit in your face.

Public transport: trains, subway, trams, buses are all excellent places for covid-19 transmission. That's how most people in big cities commute to/from work/school.

Air conditioning, lack of good air circulation, surface transmission, etc, are all the primary drivers. Someone goes to a cafe, gets it from the person next to them, goes home and infects the rest of the people they live with.

[LesPalenik]

I will try to dig up the original article, but it goes something like this.

* 99.7% of covid-19 transmission is inside buildings.
* 00.3% of covid-19 transmission happens outside.

Must be true. According to a recent Spiegel article, as people started to go outside, the outdoor cafes and restaurants as well the sidewalks are full of people and number of C19 infections compared with the previous months went down. From the peak of 6,000 infections/day to 200-600 infections/day. Only 5 deaths on Sunday, compared with 221 in Canada and 638 in USA.

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-pandemie-warum-steigen-die-fallzahlen-trotz-der-lockerungen-nicht-a-869e1f82-3a10-415c-a01a-4173d8435773

 

[dreed]

Must be true. According to a recent Spiegel article, as people started to go outside, the outdoor cafes and restaurants as well the sidewalks are full of people and number of C19 infections compared with the previous months went down. From the peak of 6,000 infections/day to 200-600 infections/day.

Right.

Think of it like this. If someone is smoking outdoors, do you inhale secondary smoke? Most likely not. In a restaurant, etc, the answer is different.

But that's just aerosol transmission.

The contact based transmission can still happen outdoors but is less likely unless you're coughing into your hand, shaking someone else's hand, etc.

[LesPalenik]

After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal. That could also explain reduced infection and death counts in the recent Worldometer reports.

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

[dreed]

If someone wants to read more:

"Coronavirus: Here’s how germs are spread and where you’re most likely to catch them"
This article was originally published on 6 May.

    As lockdowns start to be lifted, Professor of Biology Erin Bromage explains how infectious diseases spread.
    He assesses the risk of catching coronavirus in a variety of settings, including events like weddings and birthday parties.
    The risk of catching diseases outdoors is relatively low, he concludes.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-covid19-exposure-risk-catching-virus-germs

While the story was written almost a month ago, much of the analysis is still very worthwhile reading.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal. That could also explain reduced infection and death counts in the recent Worldometer reports.

While that's hopeful information, based on observations by a respected Professor, it seems to lack scientific evidence for now. There are many things going on at the same time to control the spread of the virus, amongst others lockdowns and isolation, so more solid evidence is required before risking a second wave by lifting restrictions too fast.

After all, this novel Corona-virus replicated very well after the seasonal flu season had ended. And new cases of infection are popping up where people do not respect the guidelines, as a Belgian Prince found out when he attended a party in Spain recently and now has COVID-19. I have to assume that the average temperatures in Spain are slightly higher than in Northern Italy ...
Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.

So hopefully, there will be a number of good studies from different places that can confirm the observation, which is how the scientific method works. If found to be confirmed, it would allow us to accelerate the unlocking while preparing for the Autumn/Winter season.

[LesPalenik]

Bart, I understood it in such a way that the virus is getting weaker not because of the warmer weather (which might be also the case), but rather that each subsequent generation loses its potency. Those two Italians seem to be convinced so. One of them said that "today the COVID-19 disease is different".

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Bart, I understood it in such a way that the virus is getting weaker not because of the warmer weather (which might be also the case), but rather that each subsequent generation loses its potency. Those two Italians seem to be convinced so. One of them said that "today the COVID-19 disease is different".

Maybe Les, but that conflicts with another observation that the virus mutates only slowly (which is good news for when a vaccine becomes available). Let's see which new insights further studies will provide about the potency of the virus.

[dreed]

Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.

If all it took was high average temperatures then there would be none in India, none in any of South East Asia, various parts of Africa, it would be almost gone in Iran and would not have showed up during Australia's summer.

[Robert Roaldi]

While that's hopeful information, based on observations by a respected Professor, it seems to lack scientific evidence for now. There are many things going on at the same time to control the spread of the virus, amongst others lockdowns and isolation, so more solid evidence is required before risking a second wave by lifting restrictions too fast.

After all, this novel Corona-virus replicated very well after the seasonal flu season had ended. And new cases of infection are popping up where people do not respect the guidelines, as a Belgian Prince found out when he attended a party in Spain recently and now has COVID-19. I have to assume that the average temperatures in Spain are slightly higher than in Northern Italy ...
Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.

So hopefully, there will be a number of good studies from different places that can confirm the observation, which is how the scientific method works. If found to be confirmed, it would allow us to accelerate the unlocking while preparing for the Autumn/Winter season.

This info all seems consistent with what happens normally with flus/cold. In the northern hemisphere, there is more infection in the winter months because people tend to be more indoors more with each other, thus increasing the chances of close interaction. Since Covid-19 transmission relies on close proximity to infected people, it makes sense that it follows a similar pattern. Flus/cold do NOT disappear in the summer, it's just that fewer people get them so there is less chance of catching it in normal everyday life.

Frankly, all these wishful references to the virus magically "disappearing" seem a bit silly to me. It's not as if the info about it isn't out there. Not even the bubonic has completely disappeared, apparently it is still possible to catch it under the right, but thankfully rare, circumstances. It's a virus, unless you destroy every last single one, it will be around. If we provide the right conditions, it will proliferate again. WTF else could possibly happen.

[dreed]

This info all seems consistent with what happens normally with flus/cold. In the northern hemisphere, there is more infection in the winter months because people tend to be more indoors more with each other, thus increasing the chances of close interaction.

If mask wearing and social distancing continue to exist into fall and winter then it stands to reason that the 2020/2021 instances of flu/cold will also be lower than normal.

Since Covid-19 transmission relies on close proximity to infected people,

It doesn't rely on close proximity but that definitely helps.

Flus/cold do NOT disappear in the summer, it's just that fewer people get them so there is less chance of catching it in normal everyday life.

Yes.

[BobShaw]

After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal.

There are still 60 people a day dying in Italy but Spain has gone to virtually zero.
If the population is closed, as is the situation in many countries, then eventually the number of people you can catch the virus off must go to zero.
The risk is opening up the borders to countries that still have it and new infections entering.
In Australia now there is big push for domestic tourism, which has been caned this year by bushfires, floods and then a pandemic.

[Paulo Bizarro]

There are still 60 people a day dying in Italy but Spain has gone to virtually zero.
If the population is closed, as is the situation in many countries, then eventually the number of people you can catch the virus off must go to zero.
The risk is opening up the borders to countries that still have it and new infections entering.
In Australia now there is big push for domestic tourism, which has been caned this year by bushfires, floods and then a pandemic.

After 1 month of reopening slowly here in Portugal, the situation seems similar to other countries that have reopened moreor less at the same time. since day 1 of reopening, our government has stated that we can cope with 200 - 300 new cases a day. And indeed that is our new plateau, plus a very stable 13 - 14 deaths per day. Number of cases requiring hospital care and ICU is coming down, which is good.

One interesting thing we are seeing is tht 90% of new cases are in the greater Lisbon area (comprising 18 municipalities), coming from poorer neighbourhoods, large logistical distribution centres, and construction workers. Lisbon area was not very affected during the initial weeks. The region most affectd during the onset of the pandemic, the North (greater Porto area) has been case free for a few days. So this makes sense.

Tourism has opened again, mostly targeting Portuguese, as flights are not many yet. Given the pressure of important economic sectors, some strange things and rules do not make sense. For instance, a flight from abroad arrives, full, where people were travelling shoulder to shoulder; after disembarking, they are recommended to practice social distancing... their temperature is measured, but that is all.

IMO, if a second wave happens, it will be coming from air travel, just like the first one.

[Alan Klein]

Except for older people like myself who will individually decide to continue to self-isolate, the world seems to be opening up.  Let's hope that it's a seasonal thing like the regular flu that dies out and hopeully this one won;t come back in another vbariety in the fall.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Except for older people like myself who will individually decide to continue to self-isolate, the world seems to be opening up.  Let's hope that it's a seasonal thing like the regular flu that dies out and hopeully this one won;t come back in another vbariety in the fall.

Nothing wrong with being careful, but also no need to exaggerate. This novel virus will come back (not that it's gone yet), because the level of immunity of most populations is too low to contain it.

It will take until some 70% of the population has (enough) antibodies, or a vaccine becomes available, before we get to see somewhat similar patterns of infection as the common flu. The severity of the symptoms for certain people will make it more dangerous when it does flare up though, but maybe some medication will be found to reduce that risk as well.

As the testing capabilities are improving, it also becomes easier to isolate early.

BTW, there is specific terminology that one should strive for to use here. 'Isolation' is only used for people who have been confirmed to test positive. Others can/are placed in 'Quarantine', which helps with distancing from those who are contagious but do not yet have symptoms (Pre-symptomatic). If one develops symptoms, then they should get tested.

So, if you want to self-quarantine then that's a prudent choice, but it may be already effective enough to use proper distancing and lots of hand hygiene. Where distancing is impractical, wearing a mask can help to reduce spreading of the virus to others.

[John Camp]

Interesting research out of China floating around on the news feeds today -- it seems that certain people (or maybe groups?) are "super-spreaders," and that 20% of the infected people re-infect 80% of Covid-19 victims, and that another 10% infect the remaining 20% of victims. 70% of people infected with the virus don't re-infect anyone at all. This from apparently peer-reviewed papers, which noted that the same is true of the other two deadly corona viruses, SARS and MERS.