COVID-19 updates

[armand]

So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act?  Ok, got it, you guys suck.

So the CDC posted zero in all of this to hospitals?  Really?  Ok, got.

Did you even read the article you linked, becasue it says nothing you said it did. the information was put out, it was not dismissed nor was it trashed.  Wanna try again?  Did the Hospitial industry respond or were they waiting for Trump to tell them to do something?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Are you unable to read or is your vison just clouded by Trump hate?  Saying he's not sure does count.  Unless you are blind.  I guess hope is a bad thing right? 

The key phrases;
Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in.

And by the way, the virus. … It looks like by April, you know in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away — I hope that’s true.



So your industry is so full of incompetents that they need to hear something from the President before they act?  Ok, got it, you guys suck at this.

Trying to prove its not his fault?  Are you serious?  Wow. Its amazing what you can read into or hear ito something when you are in full TDS.

I just read a nice article about  timeline of the testing problems and who caused them.  It was not Trump trying to prove "this was not his fault". It was the FDA and the CDC and it took Trump to crush the regs that caused the problems. It was the 'apolitical" groups defending turf who screwed this up.  Now if you want to fault Trump for not blowing up the regs for the CD and FDA prior to the event, have at it. 

The hospital industry of which you are a part needs to take their blame. I know you dont want to hear that but thats life.

BTW, how loud was your voice to your superiors and upper management advocating for big changes and preparations for the storm that was coming? It was public knowlege by early knowlege.  Or were you waiting for Trump?

So the health industry is incompetent and this is their fault, good to know, you also seem very certain of it. Hopefully you won't feel as such when you need their services, it leads to mutual dissatisfaction.

That Trump excuse is just lame, sorry; it would be funny but it's not. If anybody else would say that publicly there would be no excuse, but if Trump only says some people, ..., so he's not actually saying what he's saying if he's wrong, but he definitely meant it if he's right.

Either way, it's apparent that you don't understand how hospitals work in this market and what you want deep inside is something akin to Bernie's plan, you just don't want to admit it.

Martin raised very valid concerns about your view of market. I will repeat it one more time:
- most hospitals have limited profitability these days, they run barely above 0 (why it's a different discussion).
- they cannot afford to buy too much supplies at times without severely disturbing their cash flow, if they do they go bankrupt. In many places they are the only hospital around so if they go down, you might be able to find a hospital to your liking many miles away and for increased cost (even if not directly, the insurance would go up). That's the reason many small hospitals are being bought by larger ones or they just close.
Many don't have the resources to assess the global trends; they need that input if there should expect the unexpected, that's where the command center comes. And US administration had the data, just didn't bother sharing it.

[armand]

No it was the perfect analogy, but lets look at your counter. You are only gonna buy your camera or whatever at the chaeper store if they actually have a camera to sell you since they keep very little stock. And if they dont and you need the camera you are gonna shop the other tore, becuse they have what you need at the time, price be danmed.  Because you need to complete the assigment or lose the client.

Now the hospitals.  I can't think of any hospitals without ICU's ( but perhaps ther are some) so thats a pretty bad comparison.  But lets take back the level where this started...masks and proper protective care.  If your cheap hospital is not able to keep basic supplies on hand, word will get around.  Peoples lives are at stake and I doubt they will choose the inferior hospital that can't  even protects patients and workers with protective gear. Their very lives are at stake..no matter what the cost.

There are plenty of hospitals in the smaller cities without ICUs that send patients to us, and many of those that have ICUs maybe shouldn't (they tend to send patients later than they should).

[armand]

The UK is two weeks behind Italy. Uncanny

In the end we are all more alike than we think

[Manoli]

This discussion of the situation in Italy (where I have  many nervous and frustrated friends and relatives) is not a simple partisan left vs right issue. I hope we can focus on working out where to go from here, and on the basis of scientific and economic realities, not simplistic, rigid allegiances to politicians, parties, or doctrines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html

Indeed.

Italy: another 793 deaths today alone.

The country’s experience shows that steps to isolate the coronavirus and limit people’s movement need to be put in place early, with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html?referringSource=articleShare

[armand]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/it-will-not-be-pretty-state-preparing-to-make-life-or-death-decisions-if-coronavirus-overwhelms-health-care-system/?fbclid=IwAR0WFW6A3gwQJzy4VdRT5QPuiqwldEFM5CwGsmrrd4Q4zVFpjd4NacpGvH0

I know New York had discussions about this and I already saw a couple of preliminary internal guides for 2 big hospitals in Michigan.
I heard Italy is doing some form of this even if they don't want to fully admit it.

[Craig Lamson]

So the health industry is incompetent and this is their fault, good to know, you also seem very certain of it. Hopefully you won't feel as such when you need their services, it leads to mutual dissatisfaction.

Doesn't feel so good does it.   Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking.  When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent. 

That Trump excuse is just lame, sorry; it would be funny but it's not. If anybody else would say that publicly there would be no excuse, but if Trump only says some people, ..., so he's not actually saying what he's saying if he's wrong, but he definitely meant it if he's right.

Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different.  TDS in action.  Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen.  You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again.  Wanna try for strike three?

Either way, it's apparent that you don't understand how hospitals work in this market and what you want deep inside is something akin to Bernie's plan, you just don't want to admit it.

No I just want hospitals to do their jobs.  Part of that is to make sure they have the suppiles needed.  And not run to momma when they get caugth short for whatever reason.

Martin raised very valid concerns about your view of market. I will repeat it one more time:
- most hospitals have limited profitability these days, they run barely above 0 (why it's a different discussion).
- they cannot afford to buy too much supplies at times without severely disturbing their cash flow, if they do they go bankrupt. In many places they are the only hospital around so if they go down, you might be able to find a hospital to your liking many miles away and for increased cost (even if not directly, the insurance would go up). That's the reason many small hospitals are being bought by larger ones or they just close.

I won't speak for every hospital but the one right next to be can't seem to stop building.  You dont do that if you are cash poor. 

In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them.  You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago.  That does not add up.  Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem.  And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse?  You simply make no sense.

Many don't have the resources to assess the global trends; they need that input if there should expect the unexpected, that's where the command center comes. And US administration had the data, just didn't bother sharing it.

None of you read the paper?  Watch TV, listen to the radio?  Read journals?  And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you.  And continued to tell you.  Did you bother to listen?  Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.

Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10  Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21  Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China.  US issues second travel ban  PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30  WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30  CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31  US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2   CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.


And on and on and on.

Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man.  Rigth ... got it.

[Craig Lamson]

There are plenty of hospitals in the smaller cities without ICUs that send patients to us, and many of those that have ICUs maybe shouldn't (they tend to send patients later than they should).

I stand corrected.

[armand]

Doesn't feel so good does it.   Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking.  When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent. 

Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different.  TDS in action.  Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen.  You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again.  Wanna try for strike three?

You really have no idea what you are talking about but behave like an authority already. I don't fully understand the economics at play and I've been in this for a while.
Hospitals' job is not what you think it is despite me and others trying to point that out. Either way, you find that hospital that does what you think it should do and report back with your findings.
And hospitals are not running to mommy, but were screwed up and they had minimal margin for error. I explained this more than once.
Trump did screw up, multiple times. He should have just kept his mouth shut and listen to whose who knew what to do instead of ramblings in the press. It's a fact that even devout republicans colleagues agree with, because they've seen it. You on the other hand are so fired up to protect your vision of Trump that you read only what you want.

In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them.  You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago.  That does not add up.  Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem.  And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse?  You simply make no sense.

I explained VERY clearly, it's not that hard to get unless you don't want to, which I think it's the case. The hospital has reserve to operate as usual. With the expected pandemic the need however will be much higher and it will be more difficult to resupply because of generalized demand. There are more and more cases around us, closer and closer. So it is quite expected we will be hit very soon and if we don't start rationing our supply now we will probably run out before we get new stuff.

None of you read the paper?  Watch TV, listen to the radio?  Read journals?  And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you.  And continued to tell you.  Did you bother to listen?  Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.

Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10  Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21  Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China.  US issues second travel ban  PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30  WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30  CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31  US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2   CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.

Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man.  Rigth ... got it.

Oh, the irony. Do you realize US already had a pandemic response center that was taken down 2 years ago by this administration?
CDC and all the contrary voices from the government were shut down whenever their narrative did not fit Trump's, and there is zero excuse here for that.

In the end this is going nowhere. I humored you with this debate but it's already taking too much time for no good reason than to argue on the internet where everybody is becoming an expert at anything within few keystrokes. It's already complicated, not all the answers are straightforward, but as I write a, you read b, and so on, it's just not worth it.

[armand]

Coronavirus frontline NHS doctor reveals patients are dying in agony amid panic in the eyes of hardened medics... and this is just the start

It's heading our way. I already hear bad stories, not yet to this level but it's still early.
There is camaraderie spirit among the healthcare providers though, we share tips (there is at least a national Facebook group) about how we can do the best with what we have. At least this part is nice and so far everybody in my team is willing to cover extra and help each other. I don't need appreciation, just to be able to properly do my job in safe conditions, for the patients and for me.

[LesPalenik]

The situation is getting worse every day, so every new batch of test kits, masks and ventilators will help.
Italy has been out of control, 800 deaths and 6,500 new infections on Saturday is frightening. So are 7,300 new cases in USA.   

OTOH, Taiwan handled the situation exemplary. Taiwan is a small island with 23 million people and thus relatively large population density. They detected their first case in January, but took quick actions with tests, sanitizers and masks.  As a result, after two months, they have only 153 cases and 2 deaths. The stores and restaurants are still open, kids go to school, and there is no shortage of protective equipment and toilet paper.

[texshooter]

Humans deserve Covid-19 for their cruelty to animals.

Video:  How wildlife trade is linked to Coronavirus

[Rob C]

Humans deserve Covid-19 for their cruelty to animals.

Video:  How wildlife trade is linked to Coronavirus

And for turning our blind eyes to it. Problem is, not all are guilty.

I saw clips of young people lounging and partying on American beaches, and the official response to the idiots: it was far too polite. Buy hey, those kids were probably all stoned. Unfortunately, they all come with a vote tucked into their knickers.

[William Walker]

Doesn't feel so good does it.   Once again your reading ability is really quite lacking.  When it comes to having the needed supplies, yes the health hospital industry is incompetent. 

Nothing lame at all. just one more example where you read something and claim it says somthing different.  TDS in action.  Heaven forbid someome offers some hope that something MIGHT happen.  You screwed this up the first time and you screwed it up again.  Wanna try for strike three?

No I just want hospitals to do their jobs.  Part of that is to make sure they have the suppiles needed.  And not run to momma when they get caugth short for whatever reason.


I won't speak for every hospital but the one right next to be can't seem to stop building.  You dont do that if you are cash poor. 

In any case, hospitals are screaming they dont have protective gear, you say yours is amoung them.  You also say you don't have any c-19 patients at least as of a few days ago.  That does not add up.  Why are you out now and why is that the goverments problem.  And then on top of this you continually complain that Trump made this worse?  You simply make no sense.

None of you read the paper?  Watch TV, listen to the radio?  Read journals?  And yet in early January the CDC told you. And continued to tell you.  And continued to tell you.  Did you bother to listen?  Oh wait you can't do anything unless the bad orange man tells you...right. Got it.

Jan 1 word comes form China that there is a virus.
Jan 9 USCDC issues public travel notice to China because of virus
Jan 10  Notice of covid-19 was posted worldwide
Jan 20 Shanghai confirms its first case public
Jan 21  Korea and United States confirm first case of coronavirus. In the U.S., the first patient is a 35-year-old man in Seattle.
Jan. 21 – CDC opens COVID-19 Emergency Operations Center.
Jan 24 Lockdown begins in China PUBLIC DATA
Jan 25 Hong Kong declares health emergency PUBLIC
Jan 25 US starts the evac of Wuhan
Jan 27 Much of the world halts travel to China.  US issues second travel ban  PUBLIC
Jan 28 USCDC increases staff at airports PUBLIC
Jan 29 WHO announces The Pandemic Supply Chain Network Many countrys take stps to stop virus from entering PUBLIC
Jan 30  WHO declares Public Health Emergency of International Concern PUBLIC
Jan 30  CDC confirms first person-to-person spread of coronavirusan
Jan 31  US declares Public Health Emergency PUBLIC
Feb 2   CDC generates enough of the coronavirus specimen to distribute externally.


And on and on and on.

Yea, you were totally kept in the dark, no news was available you cound not do a thing until you heard it fron the bad orange man.  Rigth ... got it.

It seems to me that you guys have gone down some rabbit-hole here... Let us be honest here - no-one in the world was prepared for this, it is the response that can be questioned.

Craig, according to your own list above you note that the first case in the US was detected on Jan 21. Your president declared the national emergency on the 13th of March ~53 days after your first case, am I right?
By way of example, and I understand that it is early days and things can (and will) change, here in South Africa we detected our first case on the 5th of March. Three days later our president declared a "state of disaster". As of yesterday we have 240 cases of which 223 were "imported". "Community Spread" cases have remained an 17 for about three days now...

So far, it appears that all South Africans are on the same page and I think it is because our government decided immediately to follow WHO protocols, our political parties have all united in their message and it seems that all that could be done has been done.
 
Please don't misunderstand me: I am not trying to say for one second that we have got this thing beat, I know this post can come back and bite me!

[Paulo Bizarro]

Well, everyone in America is talking about lowering the curve, not stopping it like the Chinese.  I don;t want to get this thing tomorrow or 6 months from now.  Who are we kidding?

Before stopping it, you need to go over the peak, a plateau, and a descent phase. For the last 3 days, China has registered zero cases of "in country infections", 7 imported cases. They took their severe measures, and after 3 months are over the worst.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Could be but it's a little too early to tell, the worst has yet to come in many places.

SARS-COV-2 seems to be less affected by climate: China>Europe>North America>South America>Africa. Sequentially. Africa is going to be a disaster, so is Brasil and South America in general, given the poor public health systems.

[Paulo Bizarro]

All that demonstrates is lack of universally-agreed consensus. Numbers are not themselves sufficient. There was a famous paper a long time ago entitled "a hundred authors against Einstein": it didn't mean he was wrong.

Jeremy

Facts: isolating people is the only measure to abbate the spread. Numbers are sufficient, and countries should implement strict measures sooner rather than later. For decades scientists know how a virus with no population immunity spreads, the growth phase is exponential. Many will die due to lack of competence from politicians. As of yesterday, in Italy, government has not been able to enforce isolation rules, several factories are still working without any protection measures. they had 57,000 cases yesterday, overcame Chine in total deaths.

See also here:
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1EnpnOnZZ6D4xI2u9QGQldQZxWWGOt3l1OSPyb-pVCrZdqRe9lq8G-WAw

[Robert Roaldi]

I may be repeating myself, I can't remember, but I recommend that everyone listen to this Sam Harris podcast interview with Amesh Adalja, https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/. It's a little over an hour long. It was recorded some time ago so is not current on numbers.

From the bio posted there, Dr. Adalja is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity....

He has interesting things to say about the severity, mortality, currently known possible remedies and expressed some thoughts about vaccines. The discussion is not highly technical.

[Martin Kristiansen]

I may be repeating myself, I can't remember, but I recommend that everyone listen to this Sam Harris podcast interview with Amesh Adalja, https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/. It's a little over an hour long. It was recorded some time ago so is not current on numbers.

From the bio posted there, Dr. Adalja is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity....

He has interesting things to say about the severity, mortality, currently known possible remedies and expressed some thoughts about vaccines. The discussion is not highly technical.

I listened to that. I recommend we all do.

[Alan Klein]

It's heading our way. I already hear bad stories, not yet to this level but it's still early.
There is camaraderie spirit among the healthcare providers though, we share tips (there is at least a national Facebook group) about how we can do the best with what we have. At least this part is nice and so far everybody in my team is willing to cover extra and help each other. I don't need appreciation, just to be able to properly do my job in safe conditions, for the patients and for me.

Where's that?  It would be helpful especially under these conditions if everyone would add their country or city where they live to their profile page.  Knowing where you are adds more meaning to your posts and is more helpful to the rest of us.  Thanks.

[LesPalenik]

USA Michigan, I believe. It was mentioned several times on the forum.