COVID-19 updates

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Has anyone heard/read any explanation for why Italy should be so hard hit?

Simple.

1. la dolce vita

2. Superior socialized medicine, where it costs nothing to get tested, leading to early detection, thus reducing the spread and casualties. Oh, wait...

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

The Fed to print $700 billion in currency adding to our deficits and debt.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

What’s the point of economic stimulus when there is no economy??? It is like flogging a dead horse.

[Rob C]

What’s the point of economic stimulus when there is no economy??? It is like flogging a dead horse.

The more flogging of the dead horse, the more tender the steak!

How are you feeling today?

Rob

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.

[petermfiore]

. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets.

A 3-year sentence is a death sentence, in this case...They should shoot the old people on site! And be done with it! I'm just Kidding of course. ; )

Peter

[KLaban]

I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.

The economy will recover, the dead won't get the chance.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

The economy will recover, the dead won't get the chance.

Let's hear what comrade Stalin had to say about that: "One death is a tragedy. One million - a statistics."

[kers]

I am perfectly aware of the concept of flattening the curve, I am just making a different choice between the options. Prolonged flattening will cause much more economic damage and ruined lives.

Covid-19 is here and to stay; You cannot lock it out. You will have to deal with it. there is no safe place.
Your method is not preserving damage. A vaccin might be here in some time making the effects less grave, like with any other decease there is treatment for.

If you are true to this believe just get it, deal with it and see if you survive.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
 
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.

Sadly, Italy had on Sunday their deadliest Covid-19 day - 368 fatalities.

Another interesting fact is that many young people live with their parents, because of the shitty economy, joblessness, and inability to have one's own home. I've seen a graphic that showed the group 'responsible' for infecting the more vulnerable older part of the population, spiked between 20 and 30 years of age (if I recall correctly). Combine that with more social contacts in that age group and a late recognition of the issue, and there you have another recipe for disaster.

[KLaban]

Let's hear what comrade Stalin had to say about that: "One death is a tragedy. One million - a statistics."

Slobodan, regardless of what you might think I'm not a communist or for that matter a socialist.

[JoeKitchen]

Covid-19 is here and to stay; You cannot lock it out. You will have to deal with it. there is no safe place.
Your method is not preserving damage. A vaccin might be here in some time making the effects less grave, like with any other decease there is treatment for.

If you are true to this believe just get it, deal with it and see if you survive.

Sounds like a great plan to me!

I am currently sick with something, for two days now.  Is it COVID19?  Who knows? 

But let's look at the mild symptoms.  Headache, check.  Sore throat, check.  Cough, check.  Body aches and muscle tiredness, check.  Fever, dont know, I dont own a medical thermometer.  Am I going to get tested for it, nope. 

Whatever I have, it is a cake walk compared to the flu I got earlier this winter which had me, and my wife, in bed functionless for a week.  I am functioning rather well right now with the exception of those symptoms mildly effecting me.  Now before any looses their mind here, it is a slow season for me and, aside from a shoot planned this Wednesday of a movie theatre in Union Square, I have no immediate projects.  And given the current state in NYC, I am pretty sure that shoot is getting cancelled, especially considering the GMs are not responding to my client's emails.  So, I am self quarantining just due to the circumstances. 

However, I am seriously considering just going into Manhattan to shoot exteriors for myself.  Having streets as empty as they could ever be to shoot architecture is just, well, not to sound insensitive, music to my ears as an architectural photographer. 

I feel like this whole situation is getting out of hand, especially with closing down the schools.  Who usually takes care of kids when their parents are working, grandparents, that's who.  Is that going to change, of course not.  In essence we are setting up a situation where those whom, when contracting the virus don't show any symptoms, are going to be looked after by those whom are the most vulnerable.  Sounds like a well thought out idea to me! 

I am all for shutting down nursing homes and retirement communities to all but non-essential personal, and telling people not to visit the elderly or those with health conditions for a month or two. 

[Manoli]

Fever, dont know, I dont own a medical thermometer. 

Easily corrected. Really.

[kers]

Sounds like a great plan to me!

I am currently sick with something, for two days now.  Is it COVID19?  Who knows?  ...

I think we all have that feeling with every cough we make...
At the moment my lungs are not perfect- just did a 7km run and it feels better; burning my lungs with oxygen does something good.

[JoeKitchen]

Easily corrected. Really.

Well, I dont feel warm, or that much warmer then I usually do.  When I had the flu between the holidays, it was obvious I had a 100+F fever, so I am not really worrying enough to solve that problem right now.  To tell the truth, I caught both the flu and a mild case of (I think) pneumonia, or something, was sick for three weeks, and developed a chronic cough (from my throat being destroyed) for about a month after getting better.  I actually cough so hard, I popped a vein in my left eye and half of it turned red.  Now I am just sitting here thinking, great I have to deal with this again!   

The sudden unexplained constant muscle tiredness is the reason I know I have something. 

[Manoli]

A lot of discussion in the EU over respirators and critical care beds.
Charts are not the latest data but still reasonably representative; UK in the bottom 25% .



Comparison of the numbers of critical care beds per 100,000 against the proportion of health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (in millions of US dollars). Lines represent linear regression analysis together with 95 % confidence intervals around the line (r 2 < 0.0001, p = 0.91)



The overall number of critical care beds for Europe was 11.5/100,000 head of population. This is in marked contrast to the number for the USA, which Carr found to be 28/100,000 in 2010.

[Craig Lamson]

I just watched CBC National, and they mentioned the following factors:
1. Italy was the one of the first European countries to get the virus and they were totally unprepared for it. Something like 2 weeks before the other EU countries.
2. Their Patient #1 was misdiagnosed and repeatedly turned away from the hospital, and subsequently he infected a number of people who then gave it to others.
3. Italy's population is the oldest in Europe and thus more susceptible to such virus infections
 
This explanation was given by an Italian doctor. He may have mentioned more reasons, but that's all I remember.

Sadly, Italy had on Sunday their deadliest Covid-19 day - 368 fatalities.

I read, don’t remember where or if it accurate, is that Italy has sold some of their clothing companies the the Chinese.  But to keep the made in Italy tag they are importing hordes of Chinese to make them and there are (or were) tons of direct flights to China for workers.

[Rob C]

As from last night, Serbia is in a state of emergency, after only 48 confirmed cases. Borders closed, schools, kindergartens, gyms, etc. closed through the rest of the year. Restaurants and bars open till 8pm. No one over 65 shall be on the streets or risk a 3-year jail sentence. Police and military would patrol the streets. I am in a self-quarantine, day 6, with some sort of the flu or even corona. Tired of sleeping all day, all night. I have no idea how they expect elderly, especially those who live alone, to remain in isolation for months.

Over 65s being on the streets: so how do the alone ones get food to cook? Having family around is often a luxury, not a given.

Today, I went shopping and the supermarket was handing out thin plastic gloves, which was nice, However, in the underground car park where you can also pick up trolleys, there was nobody handing out gloves, so contaminated hands inside gloves as you shop. Cool. If you didn't use the undergropund parking area, you could get the trolleys inside the market after the gloves. Something learned.

Closing at 8p.m. is nuts: does the virus wear a watch?

Tired of sleeping: time to start micro-photography indoors. Photograph your toenail, for a start; you are probably young enough to be able to get close enough to it.

;-)

Rob

[Alan Goldhammer]

Some promising in-vitro data for chloroquine also: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
Considering chloroquine's availability and side profile I will use it for the serious cases. I'm not sure yet how easy to get remdesivir will be.
Another protocol is lopinavir/ritonavir +/- ribavirin but I have yet to see data for this.

Chloroquine has a pretty bad side effect profile which is why it is not used as a Malaria prophylactic any longer.  We'll see if there is any positive clinical data.  Redesivir is a difficult molecule to synthesize at scale and as I noted is an infusion drug.  Still it could prove useful for acute cases.  There are multiple clinical trials going on in China with combinations of products.  One hopes that the data will be expeditiously published.  I presume that the same thing will be done at US teaching hospitals as case loads increase.  It would be good to test out biologicals that affect the cytokine pathways as these seem to be affected in the worst cases.

The first vaccine will go into trials at Kaiser Permanente in Seattle today according to reports.  It's one of the new gene based vaccines produced by Moderna.  We really will need good safety and potency data as quickly as possible.  There's still going to be the issue of how many people ultimately to vaccinate since the majority of patients only get mild symptoms.

[Manoli]

Now I am just sitting here thinking, great I have to deal with this again!   

Joe,
If it hasn't descended into your lungs, you can still 'help'.
Advice excerpted from Professor of Infectious Diseases, CHu (Switzerland).

How the Covid 19 manifests:
1. The virus first settles in the throat, causing inflammation and a feeling of a dry throat: this symptom can last 3/4 days.
2. the virus then travels through the moisture present in the respiratory tract, descends into the trachea, then settles in the lungs, causing pneumonia. This stage lasts approximately 5/6 days.
3. Pneumonia occurs with high fever and difficulty breathing, but is not accompanied by conventional shivering. If you feel like you are choking, contact your doctor immediately.

It's anticipated (but not confirmed) that the virus does not withstand heat and dies if exposed to temperatures of 26-27 degrees (80F), so hot drinks such as tea, herbal tea or soup should often be consumed during the day, or simply hot water; hot liquids neutralise the virus, so avoid drinking ice water. 

Also, as always, gargle with a disinfectant solution : salt dissolved in hot water.

Above seems innocuous , even if it eventually proves to be both innefective and the experts wrong.
Bolding is mine.
Good luck!

[Manoli]

Covid-19 may not show signs of infection for many days, during which time it is not known whether a person is infected or not. But when you have a fever and / or cough, your lungs are usually still 50% clear.

We suggest doing a simple check that you can do yourself every morning:
Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you do this without coughing, feeling oppressive, etc., it shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, which basically indicates the absence of infection.  At such critical times, check this every morning in a clean air environment.

Peer review and critique invited.