I also think that Bloomberg waited too long, but there is still a lot of time for voters to make up their mind.
Impossible to make predictions at this time. We'll have a much better picture in 2 weeks, after the Super Tuesday.
If Warren's campaign had not also crashed, like Biden's, I would be more likely to agree with you. Bloomberg's whole strategy was to let everyone bash each other to hell and back, and then he comes in to pick up the pieces. And even if Biden crashed beforehand, it was still a winning bet, so long as no one really consolidated any part of the party. This looked like the case back in October, but who could have predicted Warren's fall from grace.
That was the miscalculation.
Now, even if Bloomberg wins, it will be by a slim amount and will be seen by most Bernie Bros as the Dems gypping Bernie of the nomination, just like in 2016. If the Dems are smart, they will gyp Bernie and just except Trump winning a 2nd term. This will then allow state Dems to remain viable for redistricting in 2021. But the Dems have been pretty horrible in calculations recently. So I would not put it past them to roll the bones, which happen to be weighted for snake eyes.