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Author Topic: Ambassadorial Leaks  (Read 12522 times)

Rob C

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #140 on: July 20, 2019, 04:55:21 am »

It was supporting you that got us here.

;-)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #141 on: July 20, 2019, 06:28:42 am »

It was supporting you that got us here.

;-)

Indeed. The incident at Gibraltar that triggered this Iranian reaction is rather vague. Why the Iranian tanker was exactly forced to stop, is not quite clear, but the timing does suggest that the USA had something to do with it. Maybe it was justified (illegal oil transport destination?), but how did they know the destination? Why is there not more information available?

So a reaction was provoked, and Iran seemingly responded (although the British tanker may have indeed made a maneuvering error).

What the USA doesn't seem to get, is that Iran has little more to lose now that sanctions are already crippling its economy. So they will be calling the USA's bluff call, and they do have a capable military force to push back with. It also bolsters the hawkish elements in the Iranian leadership, and it unites the Iranian people (a majority is relatively young) behind a common enemy, again. A new generation of USA haters is born.

And all that without a US Secretary of Defense ...

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 07:16:39 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Rob C

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #142 on: July 20, 2019, 06:44:08 am »

Indeed. The incident at Gibraltar that triggered this Iranian reaction is rather vague. Why the Iranian tanker was exactly forced to stop, is not quite clear, but the timing does suggest that the USA had something to do with it. Maybe it was justified (illegal oil transport destination?), but how did they know the destination? Why is there not more information available?

So a reaction was provoked, and Iran seemingly responded (although the British tanker may have indeed made a maneuvering error).

What the USA doesn't seem to get, is that Iran has little more to lose now that sanctions are already crippling its economy. So they will be calling the USA's bluff call, and they do have a capable military force to push back with. It also bolsters the hawkish elements in the Iranian leadership, and it unites the Iranian people (a majority is relatively young) behind a common enemy, again. A new generation of USA haters is born.

And all that without a Secretary of Defense ...

Cheers,
Bart


If there were a Secy of D, there's an even chance we may never have got here. Had we some common sense left in Tory England... Dysfunctional or what?

:-(

Alan Klein

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #143 on: July 20, 2019, 07:51:15 am »

What should England do? NATO? France? Germany?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #144 on: July 20, 2019, 08:04:35 am »

What should England do? NATO? France? Germany?

What they were already doing, not adding oil to the fire. In the mean time, European hands are tied by the US sanctions.
NATO has little to do with it, this is provoked by the USA and will not drag the rest of the world into a reelection campaign for Trump.

The European leadership is trying to find a financial construction that will allow doing business with Iran (as was agreed in the deal that the USA broke with), but not becoming a target for USA sanctions against Europe for doing that. If they succeed, that might release tensions a bit, until the next irresponsible USA action.

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #145 on: July 20, 2019, 08:24:16 am »

Thanks, Bart. In other words, Europe is going to do its usual thing: hide its head in the sand and pretend there isn't a problem until its too late to avert disaster. Europe's been doing that since before WW I. Why should it change now?
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kers

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #146 on: July 20, 2019, 08:48:16 am »

Thanks, Bart. In other words, Europe is going to do its usual thing: hide its head in the sand and pretend there isn't a problem until its too late to avert disaster. Europe's been doing that since before WW I. Why should it change now?
No we are trying to tackle a possible disaster of The USA igniting a war that we can avoid. The problem is not Iran, it is Israel + the USA + Saudi Arabia trying desperately to find grounds to ignite a war.
As soon as they know the USA will support them,  Israel will bomb all nuclear installations in Iran as they want to do since a long time.
If that happens we have a new middle east war of unprecedented proportions with Israel having nuclear weapons.
The second Irak war was a drama that caused about a million people their lives and it was ignited by the USA on false grounds. So we have seen this scenario before, only few years ago.
Weapons of mass destruction....Weapons of mass destruction.... Weapons of mass destruction....   ask United States Secretary of State Colin Powel:


NBC news 2015
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/colin-powell-invasion-iraq-badly-flawed-n422566

...
But Powell defended the decision to invade Iraq against that criticism, asserting it was based on a unified — if faulty — evaluation from the intelligence community.
“If we had known the intelligence was wrong, we would not have gone into Iraq. But the intelligence community, all 16 agencies, assured us that it was right,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
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Pieter Kers
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #147 on: July 20, 2019, 09:29:55 am »

No we are trying to tackle a possible disaster of The USA igniting a war that we can avoid.

Yeah, you were trying to do that before WW II also, Pieter. You were sure that if you gave in again and again you could avert war. If you could avert war by hiding your head in the sand, there'd have been no WW II. Unfortunately it doesn't work.
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faberryman

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #148 on: July 20, 2019, 10:08:55 am »

Yeah, you were trying to do that before WW II also, Pieter. You were sure that if you gave in again and again you could avert war. If you could avert war by hiding your head in the sand, there'd have been no WW II. Unfortunately it doesn't work.
What war did we avert by invading Iraq?
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #149 on: July 20, 2019, 10:29:26 am »

We’ll never know the answer to that question, Fab, and as I suspect you know, because I know you’re not stupid, it’s not really a serious question. The roots that grow and lead to war are tangled and complex. If you don’t believe that, read the history of what led to WW I. WW II was simpler. Its roots were planted at Versailles, but they still were too complex for most “statesmen” to comprehend. Churchill was about the only one who saw the future clearly. In spite of “international” assurances that Iraq wasn’t working on nukes, I suspect it was happening. And, again, if one of its adversaries gets close to a deliverable nuclear weapon, in order to survive Israel’s going to have to take out the offender – by conventional means if possible, but with nuclear means if not. The country is too small to tolerate even one fair-sized nuclear detonation.

We handled the Iraq war very badly, almost as badly as we handled Vietnam. But that’s what happens when politicians like LBJ take control of the details.
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Rob C

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #150 on: July 20, 2019, 10:43:26 am »

How come nobody seems to think about neighbouring Pakistan in this context, also a nuke power? Religion is stronger than politics, and in a huge area where nationhood is largely an arbitrary, external construct, the ramifications are more like taking on the Mafia than a specific country.

In the end, the difference has always been that where the West thinks it's fighting a political war, the other side is seeing it as an existential, religious clash of civilizations.

The deal-that-Alan-says-is-not-a-deal was supposed to bring counter benefits to Iran in terms of investment and trade: what did it see? Next to nada. A few little French capillaries, then Amen. But it did see stronger hatred, more vitriolic language and, ultimately, the dismemberment of the thin ray of hope both sides could have used, given some patience and slack. There is the presumed attempt to bring some countries back into the wider world, but the moment there's even a chance, bam! there goes the straight left. It often seems those "pariahs" are actually an essential part of the trade paradigm: remove them, and waddya got? You got no reason to make or buy weapons and have vast armed forces... that will never do!

Some people speak of compromise when what they mean is absolute defeat and humiliation of the other side. As has been posed here before: a man with nothing left to lose is one dangerous cat.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #151 on: July 20, 2019, 10:49:16 am »

And the answer as to what happened here?



Why the change of course that forced Iran to intercept???

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #152 on: July 20, 2019, 10:54:58 am »

There you go, Bart. That makes it all very clear. Maybe you have some charts with zigzag lines that'll make it even clearer.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #153 on: July 20, 2019, 11:27:05 am »

What they were already doing, not adding oil to the fire. In the mean time, European hands are tied by the US sanctions.
NATO has little to do with it, this is provoked by the USA and will not drag the rest of the world into a reelection campaign for Trump.

The European leadership is trying to find a financial construction that will allow doing business with Iran (as was agreed in the deal that the USA broke with), but not becoming a target for USA sanctions against Europe for doing that. If they succeed, that might release tensions a bit, until the next irresponsible USA action.

Cheers,
Bart

"“The vicious British government committed piracy and attacked our ship,” Mr. Khamenei said. “They commit crimes and legalize it. The Islamic Republic and the believing members of the establishment will not leave such vicious acts without a response.""


The Brits insist it was European sanctions on Syria as the reason it grabbed the Iranian ship.  That means The Netherlands, France, Germany, Spain, etc. as well as Britain.


From the linked article below:
"The British insist that they only impounded Grace 1 due its suspected destination – a port in Syria – not due to the fact that the ship was carrying Iranian oil. European Union sanctions against the regime of Bashir al Assad regime were there to be enforced and international law upheld, the British argued. There seemed little doubt, given its circuitous route, that the ship was bound for Syria."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/20/gulf-crisis-tanker-retaliation-iran-hormuz





Alan Klein

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #154 on: July 20, 2019, 11:38:25 am »

It was supporting you that got us here.

;-)
"It's not our fault. The Yanks made us do it."

 If you did it for that reason and not Syria and the EU sanctions, isn't that what allies are for? What do you expect to gain from staying friends with us?  Did we not support you in your war with Argentina providing critical intelligence information about where their navy ships were?  Friendship, NATO, etc is not a one-way street.  Frankly I think America should back off of Europe's defense and NATO.  We can't afford it and Europe is rich enough today to pay their own way.  We should pull out of Europe and NATO.  You guys should figure it all out and defend you own oil lines in the Middle East.  The last thing Trump wants is war with Iran.  He opposed war with Iraq. 

kers

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #155 on: July 20, 2019, 11:52:15 am »

Yeah, you were trying to do that before WW II also, Pieter. You were sure that if you gave in again and again you could avert war. If you could avert war by hiding your head in the sand, there'd have been no WW II. Unfortunately it doesn't work.

Russ, as you know I am relating to a very similar situation only a few years ago...
This situation has nothing to do with WWII, nor with Napoleons journey into Russia...

Also i am presenting to you Colin Powell admitting the US started this war on false grounds... causing a million deaths, with American Arms ( fighting against older western imported arms by Irak)
Maybe it is you that has its head buried into sand.

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Pieter Kers
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #156 on: July 20, 2019, 12:03:48 pm »

[...]The Brits insist it was European sanctions on Syria as the reason it grabbed the Iranian ship.  That means The Netherlands, France, Germany, Spain, etc. as well as Britain.

From the linked article below:
"The British insist that they only impounded Grace 1 due its suspected destination – a port in Syria – not due to the fact that the ship was carrying Iranian oil. European Union sanctions against the regime of Bashir al Assad regime were there to be enforced and international law upheld, the British argued. There seemed little doubt, given its circuitous route, that the ship was bound for Syria."

Maybe the Brits have some charts with zigzag lines to prove it?

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #157 on: July 20, 2019, 12:10:44 pm »

Also i am presenting to you Colin Powell admitting the US started this war on false grounds...

Colin is a good guy, Pieter, but he wasn't always right. What he's saying is that he thinks the intelligence was wrong. I suspect it's Colin who was wrong. Every intelligence service in the world was convinced Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction. Once we got into Iraq the weapons weren't there. But I'm doubtful about the whole scenario. I suspect that the world's intelligence services were right and that, when faced with the obvious fact they were going to lose the war, the Iraqi military cleaned up the place. As I recall, there were some indications that was the case. But, of course, the news media aren't going to push that idea. They're going to push what they like to believe.
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faberryman

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #158 on: July 20, 2019, 12:18:03 pm »

Colin is a good guy, Pieter, but he wasn't always right. What he's saying is that he thinks the intelligence was wrong. I suspect it's Colin who was wrong. Every intelligence service in the world was convinced Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction. Once we got into Iraq the weapons weren't there. But I'm doubtful about the whole scenario. I suspect that the world's intelligence services were right and that, when faced with the obvious fact they were going to lose the war, the Iraqi military cleaned up the place. As I recall, there were some indications that was the case. But, of course, the news media aren't going to push that idea. They're going to push what they like to believe.
Talk about pushing what you like to believe.
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RSL

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Re: Ambassadorial Leaks
« Reply #159 on: July 20, 2019, 12:22:20 pm »

Hi Fab. Since your age is N/A, I'd guess you're too young to have been around when the thing actually was going on. The history has been written by the "news media," so it's pretty badly distorted. But I was around, and I remember the arguments.
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