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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 112554 times)

JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2180 on: September 15, 2020, 05:41:55 pm »

Post one peer reviewed paper from a scientific journal.

Well, I must say that although Nature Sustainability is partially peer-reviewed, the article I posted is not.  I just checked.  However, I have sited a few articles written by scientists and/or universities discussing controlled burns. 

I would like to add that that the Stanford article I posted came from the Woods Institute (as is woods or forests), an institution dedicated to studying forests.  Like I said, I am siting specialists, not generalists. 

You have not posted any actual rebuttals to these points, only ad hoc articles written in general media (BBC) and engage in ad homonym attacks on me (albeit mild enough this time around). 

I am addressing your argument whereas you are choosing to ignore mine since your "religious faith" in the matter refuses to allow you to. 

I am waiting to hear your actual rebuttal on how controlled burns will not help reduce crown fires that kill forests, and/or how the build up of fuel on the ground that we allowed to happen does not help to produce crown fires.   
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 05:46:04 pm by JoeKitchen »
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2181 on: September 15, 2020, 05:45:53 pm »

Have you read this?  By the I have known this individual for many years and have great respect for his research. https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Californias-Ecosystems-Jan-Wagtendonk/dp/0520286839
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2182 on: September 15, 2020, 05:49:57 pm »

I spent years studying the effects of fire in Yellowstone National Park.  You did not. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2183 on: September 15, 2020, 05:51:45 pm »

Have you read this?  By the I have known this individual for many years and have great respect for his research. https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Californias-Ecosystems-Jan-Wagtendonk/dp/0520286839

First, since when have you been able to rent books on amazon? 

Second, no I have not and thanks for sharing.  Looks interesting and I skimmed through the first three paragraphs in the forward.  It does mention the benefits of fire in those first paragraphs, albeit it could be a lead up to argue against it.  I'll have to look into this more. 

But anyway, let me say this in closing to this argument. 

I am very much about preserving natural lands and wildlife habitat.  This is one main reason why I am against wind and solar, it takes up too much land.  This is the main reason I am against the border wall, because it screws with the natural habitat of wildlife that roam back and froth across the border.  I dont want to see forests killed in crown fires.  Lofty climate change goals are noble, but they do nothing for us now.  Like I said, CA could burn twice by the time any of these efforts take effect. 
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2184 on: September 15, 2020, 05:52:24 pm »

The sad part is you really are a hippy liberal.  It just that the check boxes are different where you live. 
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2185 on: September 15, 2020, 06:00:59 pm »

Quote
I dont want to see forests killed in crown fires.

None of us do unless it it is the right place at the right time.  The problem is you don't understand the science or the ecology.  But we do agree that fire should be fought by fire.  But, making the acertation that we just need to pick up sticks in the forest is not based on any science. I could also argue that you are a crazy pagan, but that would just be hurtful.
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2186 on: September 15, 2020, 06:10:48 pm »

But you can write more than me and you are a wonderful speller.  PS.  I like your socks.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2187 on: September 15, 2020, 06:16:51 pm »

But you can write more than me and you are a wonderful speller.  PS.  I like your socks.

I never claimed to win any spelling bees as a kid.  BTW ...

Judging a person on their spelling and grammar reveals more about you than it does about them

It's not peered reviewed, but gives you a good idea of what I think on the subject. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2188 on: September 15, 2020, 06:23:06 pm »

None of us do unless it it is the right place at the right time.  The problem is you don't understand the science or the ecology.  But we do agree that fire should be fought by fire.  But, making the acertation that we just need to pick up sticks in the forest is not based on any science. I could also argue that you are a crazy pagan, but that would just be hurtful.

Were not talking about picking up sticks, that would take too long.  Controlled burns would not. 

But since you are so well versed in the science, perhaps you could explain why you are right and Stanford is wrong?  Or maybe you have written an article that you could link to and give a summary of the pertinent points? 

I'm not going to hold my breath just so you know.  But with out providing a more detailed rebuttal (not just a link to a book that I cant read in a few minutes), I am just not going to consider you to be a serious person on the matter.  Up until now, you have shown yourself to be nothing more then someone interested in trying to talk down people who disagree with you without arguments to back you up. 
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2189 on: September 15, 2020, 06:38:09 pm »

Following Trump's news conference yesterday, the National Review posted an editorial promoting forest management as the way to control forest fires in California. Last time I saw a figure for the devastation so far is 3.3 million acres burned. Has anyone calculated the number of people and time frame required, and the total cost of clearing brush from 3.3 million acres? From all of the forest area in California, Oregon, and Washington? I am trying to get a feel for the size and scope of the suggested project. I have been to several of the national and state parks in California and it sure looks like a big job.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/09/california-forest-mismanagement-a-disaster/#slide-1

Forest management seems like a good idea. What sort of manpower, time, and money are we talking about to solve the problem?
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 06:44:03 pm by faberryman »
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2190 on: September 15, 2020, 06:43:31 pm »

Quote
Stanford is wrong?
Because standford has done so little research regarding this topic! 
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2191 on: September 15, 2020, 06:44:07 pm »

Joe, What paper?
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John Camp

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2192 on: September 15, 2020, 06:54:36 pm »

Following Trump's news conference yesterday, the National Review posted an editorial promoting forest management as the way to control forest fires in California. Last time I saw a figure for the devastation so far is 3.3 million acres burned. Has anyone calculated the number of people and time frame required, and the total cost of clearing brush from 3.3 million acres? From all of the forest area in California, Oregon, and Washington? I am trying to get a feel for the size and scope of the suggested project. I have been to several of the national and state parks in California and it sure looks like a big job.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/09/california-forest-mismanagement-a-disaster/#slide-1

The acreage burned so far is about the size of the state of Connecticut.
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2193 on: September 15, 2020, 07:18:54 pm »

Quote
Forest management seems like a good idea. What sort of manpower, time, and money are we talking about to solve the problem?

More rakes?  We might as well start a religion thread. The problem is that over the last 20 years there has been a huge amount of trees killed due to beetle infestations attributed to the increasingly dry conditions.  The biomass combined with increasingly hot summers has resulted in these huge fires.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 07:38:23 pm by HSakols »
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2194 on: September 15, 2020, 07:20:55 pm »

Until we can agree upon what is science and what is not we can't have this conversation. 
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2195 on: September 15, 2020, 08:02:34 pm »

Anderson J.E. 1995 Regeneration of lodgepole pine influenced by site factors and burn intensity in the Great Yellowstone Area. Final Report,Agreement  No. INT-90491-RJVA, Inermountain Reasearch Station, USDA Forest Service, Ogden Utah.

Knight, D. H. and L. L. Wallace. 1989. The Yellowstone Fires: issues in landscape ecology. Bioscience, 39:700-706.

Romme, W.H. and D. G. Despain. 1989. HIstorical perspectives on the Yellowston Fires of 1988. Bioscience, 695-699. 

van Wagtendonk, J. W. 1985. Fire suppression effects on fuels and succession in short-fire-interval wilderness ecosystems. In Proceed-
ings, Symposium and workshop on wilderness fire, technical coordi- nation by J. E. Lotan, B. M. Kilgore, W. C. Fischer, and R. W. Mutch, 119-26. General Technical Report INT-182. Ogden, UT: U.S. Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station.
-.
sium on fire in wilderness and park management, technical coordina- tion by J. K. Brown, R. W. Mutch, C. W. Spoon, and R. H. Wakimoto, 113-16. General Technical Report INT-GTR-320. Ogden, UT: U.S. Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station.
1995. Large fires in wilderness areas. In Proceedings: Sympa-
 -.
treatments. In Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project: Final report to Con- gress, vol. II, chap. 43. Davis: University of California, Centers for Water and Wildland Resources.
1996. Use of a deterministic fire growth model to test fuel
 Weatherspoon, C. P., 1996. Fire-silviculture relationships in Sierra forests. In Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project: Final report to Congress, vol. II, chap. 44. Davis: University of California, Centers for Water and Wildland Resources.
I can go on and on. 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 08:17:02 pm by HSakols »
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HSakols

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2196 on: September 15, 2020, 09:44:13 pm »


 Fire Intervals in Yellowstone National Park (Yes, I now live in Yosemite National Park):

From approximately 1700 to 1900, lodgepole pine stands in the study area were characterized, for the most part, as young to middle successional staged. Such stands are typically less flammable than older, more mature stands. On the basis of stand age alone, could have potentially burned after about 1930 when late and middle successional staged stands were dominant, yet climatic conditions were not optimal for extensive fires until the summer of 1988.

« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 10:18:14 pm by HSakols »
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2197 on: September 16, 2020, 12:53:45 am »

You are still not addressing the heart of the issue that I mentioned a couple times. 

We need at least 10 times the amount of energy produced than what we put into producing it for our economy to thrive. 

Solar and wind gives us just a 1.9 to 3.6 return. 

It's a pipe dream, that's it.  That's why CA cant provide the amount of energy it needs, why they had to implement rolling blackouts and why they are extending the shut down of other types of plants.  It will never work. 

Nuclear is the only option to get us off of fossil fuels. 



Would you care to explain how these calculations of 1.9 to 3.6 return are obtained, Joe? Surely you know that I'm not the sort of person who blindly accepts a statement that supports a particular view, simply because it's linked to some study which is probably biased. Are these figures from the German study you referred to in a previous post, but didn't provide the link to? Were the figures calculated decades ago when the manufacturing costs of solar panels were much higher?

There are frequent claims from 'climate alarmists' that the cost of electricity from solar and wind is now cheaper than the the same amount of electricity produced from fossil fuels, but those of us who are objective and unbiased realize that such calculations tend to ignore the additional costs of providing a continuous supply of electricity in regions where the sun is not shining, or the wind not blowing, at a particular time when the electricity is needed.

However, as I've mentioned before, there are solutions to these problems that don't require expensive fossil-fuel back-up. These solution are HVDC transmission lines and battery storage. Research into these solutions continues, and I see no reason why eventually solar power alone, without subsidies, will be cheaper than the current energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power plants, taking everything into consideration, including the cost of recycling solar panels and the cost of safely disposing of the waste from nuclear power plants, and so on.

The following article provides an overview of HVDC.
https://medium.com/predict/future-of-electricity-transmission-is-hvdc-9800a545cd18

"HVDC lines always deliver more of the power put into them regardless of the distance that the electricity travels, which is a significant factor in and of itself. But the big reason this is important is that it’s cheaper at longer distances over land and at very short distances underwater and underground. This means that it’s very useful for bringing electricity long distances from renewable locations, connecting islands to the mainland and even continents to one another potentially."

This aspect of HVDC transmission being cheaper, even at short distances when underground, appeals to me greatly because of my appreciation of the beauty of the natural landscape. Overhead power lines are an eyesore, as well as windmills. I'd prefer a future which relies mainly upon solar power from rooftops and deserts.

Many houses in the suburbs of Australia have solar panels installed on their roofs, but usually only a fraction of one side of the roof is covered, representing one quarter of the total roof area, more or less.
There's no technological reason why future houses could not be designed with the entire roof area covered with solar panels. Refer attached images.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/11/everything-you-need-to-know-about-version-3-of-teslas-new-solarglass-roof-tiles/

Imagine a future where it becomes the norm to include solar technology in the entire roof area of each and every building on the planet, and all solar farms are located in arid or desert regions where the land cannot be used for agriculture, and where the sun shines on most days. The power generated from such farms can be efficiently transported to the cities and other countries via underground HVDC cables that are not an eyesore.

It's not a pipe 'dream', Joe. The pipes are already a reality, containing HVDC transmission lines.  ;D
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2198 on: September 16, 2020, 01:10:53 pm »

Until we can agree upon what is science and what is not we can't have this conversation.

Another very merry unserious post from a very merry unserious poster. 

Hey Hugh ...

FYI, I call dibs on being the hatter. 

But getting back to the point at hand, and the question you ignored, if climate change is the main issue and any mitigation efforts will take a 100 years to produce results, enough time for CA to burn to a crisp, what is wrong with discussing solutions that could help us now, not a century from now? 
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 01:15:43 pm by JoeKitchen »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2199 on: September 16, 2020, 01:13:04 pm »


Would you care to explain how these calculations of 1.9 to 3.6 return are obtained, Joe? Surely you know that I'm not the sort of person who blindly accepts a statement that supports a particular view, simply because it's linked to some study which is probably biased. Are these figures from the German study you referred to in a previous post, but didn't provide the link to? Were the figures calculated decades ago when the manufacturing costs of solar panels were much higher?

There are frequent claims from 'climate alarmists' that the cost of electricity from solar and wind is now cheaper than the the same amount of electricity produced from fossil fuels, but those of us who are objective and unbiased realize that such calculations tend to ignore the additional costs of providing a continuous supply of electricity in regions where the sun is not shining, or the wind not blowing, at a particular time when the electricity is needed.

However, as I've mentioned before, there are solutions to these problems that don't require expensive fossil-fuel back-up. These solution are HVDC transmission lines and battery storage. Research into these solutions continues, and I see no reason why eventually solar power alone, without subsidies, will be cheaper than the current energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power plants, taking everything into consideration, including the cost of recycling solar panels and the cost of safely disposing of the waste from nuclear power plants, and so on.

The following article provides an overview of HVDC.
https://medium.com/predict/future-of-electricity-transmission-is-hvdc-9800a545cd18

"HVDC lines always deliver more of the power put into them regardless of the distance that the electricity travels, which is a significant factor in and of itself. But the big reason this is important is that it’s cheaper at longer distances over land and at very short distances underwater and underground. This means that it’s very useful for bringing electricity long distances from renewable locations, connecting islands to the mainland and even continents to one another potentially."

This aspect of HVDC transmission being cheaper, even at short distances when underground, appeals to me greatly because of my appreciation of the beauty of the natural landscape. Overhead power lines are an eyesore, as well as windmills. I'd prefer a future which relies mainly upon solar power from rooftops and deserts.

Many houses in the suburbs of Australia have solar panels installed on their roofs, but usually only a fraction of one side of the roof is covered, representing one quarter of the total roof area, more or less.
There's no technological reason why future houses could not be designed with the entire roof area covered with solar panels. Refer attached images.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/11/everything-you-need-to-know-about-version-3-of-teslas-new-solarglass-roof-tiles/

Imagine a future where it becomes the norm to include solar technology in the entire roof area of each and every building on the planet, and all solar farms are located in arid or desert regions where the land cannot be used for agriculture, and where the sun shines on most days. The power generated from such farms can be efficiently transported to the cities and other countries via underground HVDC cables that are not an eyesore.

It's not a pipe 'dream', Joe. The pipes are already a reality, containing HVDC transmission lines.  ;D

Wow, they look like nice roofs.  Too bad we are trending towards urbanization living in apartment buildings throughout the world, making solar roofs a moot point.  I also would like to point out it is twice as expensive to produce electricity from solar roofs, which is largely subsidized, as it is from farms.  Fact is, without any subsidizes, solar power would not be possible.  Fossil fuels, hydro-electric and nuclear would all continuing to operate, albeit slightly more expensive. 

Plus, the idea of connecting the entire world through one grid would not only be nearly impossible and extremely costly, but from a national security perspective foolish and would leave us open to being vulnerable to enemies. 

It's a pipe dream. 

But anyway, I promise to supply that paper I referenced by the end of the day.  I have to look it up; it is in German FYI. 
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 01:20:56 pm by JoeKitchen »
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