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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 207161 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2140 on: August 24, 2020, 11:49:39 am »

So first we force free people to buy more expensive green energy generators.  Then we force these formerly free people to spend more money disposing of the green generators. How do we buy back our freedom? How much will that cost?
This question had nothing to do with the cost of green energy.  It was a rhetorical question about the cost of liberty.

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2141 on: August 24, 2020, 04:15:11 pm »

This question had nothing to do with the cost of green energy.  It was a rhetorical question about the cost of liberty.

Our childrens' lives, apparently.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2142 on: August 24, 2020, 11:08:56 pm »

One thing I've learned on this forum is that Ray just absolutely LOVES using the word "Ultra-Supercritical".

No. You got it wrong. I absolutely love using the correct terminology when discussing scientific and technological matters. Poetry and politics, on the other hand, do not require that. What I dislike is the distortion of the truth, such as calling CO2 a pollutant.

The broad term used to describe the latest, most efficient coal-fired power plants is HELE, which stands for 'High Energy Low Emissions'. The old coal-fired power plants that are the least efficient and emit the most pollutants, which were the major cause of the smog in Chinese and Indian cities, are described as 'subcritical' plants. The next stage in development is described as 'supercritical', which is more efficient with lower emissions. The stage after that is described as 'ultra-supercritical', which is even more efficient with even lower emissions, and the latest development in coal-fired power is described as 'advanced ultra-supercritical'.

My understanding is that the improvement in the method of burning the coal, using much higher temperatures and pressure, reduces emissions, including CO2, mainly because less coal is burned to get the same amount of energy. The efficiency of the Subcritical plants is around 34%, whereas the efficiency of the Ultra-Supercritical plant is around 45% and will possibly reach 50% in the near future.

However, without the additional, add-on emission controls, which increases the cost, the Ultra-Supercritical plants will still emit at least some pollutants which could cause at least some harm to human health. The Advanced Ultra-Supercritical technology includes the latest emission controls which reduce the toxic emissions to negligible amounts. However CO2 emissions still occur, which must be very alarming for those who believe CO2 is a pollutant.  ;)

"Advanced ultra-supercritical technology

Combined with advanced emission controls equipment that can remove local pollutants such as NOx, SO2, and particulate matter, GE’s USC coal power plant can deliver more power with a lower environmental impact."


https://www.ge.com/power/steam/steam-power-plants/advanced-ultra-supercritical-usc-ausc
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2143 on: August 25, 2020, 12:09:05 am »

So first we force free people to buy more expensive green energy generators.  Then we force these formerly free people to spend more money disposing of the green generators. How do we buy back our freedom? How much will that cost?

Alan,
You need to be more specific about the meaning of 'freedom'. In all societies, people are subject to rules and regulations. Some societies have horrible rules based on religion, and other societies have more sensible rules which contribute more towards the prosperity and well-being of the citizens.

In a sense, everyone is free to do whatever they like. But if they break the rules, they will suffer the consequences, if they are caught. So the real issue is, 'are the rules and regulations fair and sensible'?

We have speeds limits on roads in order to reduce accidents and save lives. That's sensible. We have rules and regulations to limit the emissions of toxic chemicals from car exhausts and power plants. That's sensible.

We have rules, at least in Australia, forbidding the dumping of rubbish in the natural environment, outside of the specific areas designated as rubbish dumps. Also, in Australia we have regulations that forbid anyone to discard their empty beer can or coke bottle on the road side, such as throwing it out of the car window. Anyone who is caught doing this, on a CCTV camera, or through the reporting of any concerned citizen who witnesses the event, will be subject to a fine. However the fine is different in different states.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/illicit-pubs-needle-audit-review-toc~illicit-pubs-needle-audit-review-leg~illicit-pubs-needle-audit-review-leg-lit

"In this Act: litter includes any solid or liquid waste, whether domestic or commercial, and also includes, for example—any glass, metal, cigarette butt, plastic, paper, fabric, wood, food, abandoned vehicle and vehicle part, construction or demolition material, garden remnants and clippings, soil, sand or rocks; and any material, substance or thing deposited at a place if its size, shape, nature or volume makes the place untidy or adversely affects the proper use of the place."

Do you want freedom to litter, Alan?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2144 on: August 25, 2020, 06:49:19 am »

Laws against littering its one thing.  Spending trillions of scarce resources on green energy reducing money available to cure diseases,  feed the poor, and house the homeless is another.

kers

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2145 on: August 25, 2020, 07:47:26 am »

Laws against littering its one thing.  Spending trillions of scarce resources on green energy reducing money available to cure diseases,  feed the poor, and house the homeless is another.
Spending trillions of scarce resources to counteract pollution by the ancient carbon burning economy is another.
Spending trillions of scarce resources on Defense that already is by far the largest in the world, and by its necessary exports fuels the wars in many countries like Jemen, only killing people an destroying ancient culture , is another.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2020, 06:02:33 pm by kers »
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2146 on: August 25, 2020, 08:01:53 am »

Laws against littering its one thing.  Spending trillions of scarce resources on green energy reducing money available to cure diseases,  feed the poor, and house the homeless is another.

Very true. But what are the scarce resources you are referring to? Surely we all know that fossil fuels are a limited resource, but not scarce at present or in the near future. I don't think it would be sensible to allow the billions of people in undeveloped countries to become totally reliant upon fossil fuels as they continue to increase their prosperity with increasing use of fossil fuels.

It would be very difficult to begin development of alternative energy supplies in say 50 years time when coal, oil and gas became scarce and ridiculously expensive. Surely it's far better to prepare for the future now, whilst fossil fuels are abundant, and develop the alternative energy supplies from the sun, using solar panels and battery storage, so that we don't have to face a catastrophic energy crisis in the future, with devastating effects on the economy.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2147 on: August 25, 2020, 10:21:36 am »

By scarce resources I was referring to money not oil and gas.  Sorry for the confusion.

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2148 on: August 25, 2020, 10:29:28 am »

No. You got it wrong. I absolutely love using the correct terminology when discussing scientific and technological ...

Me, I prefer using “unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine”.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2149 on: August 25, 2020, 11:48:54 am »

By scarce resources I was referring to money not oil and gas.  Sorry for the confusion.

Money is not a resource, although it's supposed to represent a resource. It's basically a system of exchanging goods and services, and those goods and services are totally dependent on energy resources.

Energy supplies are the foundation of all activity in a modern society. No energy, whether from fossil fuels, solar power, or whatever, means 'back to the stone age'. Even if you are a billionaire, if there's no energy supplies, your money is worthless.

Providing a good living standard and at least moderate prosperity for the 7.8 billion people on Earth, will require huge amounts of energy, much more than is currently being used. We can't rely upon fossil fuels forever, but we can rely upon the sun, until it disappears. If it does disappear, then so does all life on Earth. Nothing we can do about that, at least in the near future.  ;)
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2150 on: August 25, 2020, 12:00:14 pm »

Money is not a resource, although it's supposed to represent a resource. It's basically a system of exchanging goods and services, and those goods and services are totally dependent on energy resources.

Energy supplies are the foundation of all activity in a modern society. No energy, whether from fossil fuels, solar power, or whatever, means 'back to the stone age'. Even if you are a billionaire, if there's no energy supplies, your money is worthless.

Providing a good living standard and at least moderate prosperity for the 7.8 billion people on Earth, will require huge amounts of energy, much more than is currently being used. We can't rely upon fossil fuels forever, but we can rely upon the sun, until it disappears. If it does disappear, then so does all life on Earth. Nothing we can do about that, at least in the near future.  ;)

We cant rely upon the sun outside of what energy is needed for nature!  It is way too dilute and way too inconsistent. 

In order to make electricity cheap, you need to have a modern electrical grid that carries the exact amount of energy that is needed at any one time, can fluctuate based upon usage at a particular time, and involves as little energy transfers as possible (since this always loses energy in the process). 

Neither solar nor wind can make energy on demand and therefore would not be able to fluctuate (unless by pure chance), they can not fully supply an electrical grid without taking over an immense part of the country, and excess energy produced either goes unused or is transferred into a battery before being transferred back into the grid, adding two additional energy transfers that are not used in fossil fuel or nuclear. 

Solar and wind are pipe dreams, and a return to primitive energy sources.  (Windmills have been around for centuries.)  The fact is that we can not advance as a society by reverting back to less energy dense options.  A great example of this is that it has been shown the industrial revolution in Britain could not have happened by relying on wood.  Coal, even though it is only about 2 to 3 times more energy dense, is what powered the revolution.  We should not be going backwards, but looking forward to nuclear. 
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2151 on: August 25, 2020, 01:23:04 pm »

Solar and wind are pipe dreams, and a return to primitive energy sources. 

What! You think the sun is more primitive than coal? Without the sun the coal would not exist. The sun is by far the most powerful and influential force on our planet. No sun means no life.

Developing technology which can efficiently capture the energy from the sun and efficiently store that energy, is a great idea and will be a tremendous boon for humanity in the future.

What I object to, is building solar farms on fertile soil that could be used for agriculture or planting forests. I also object to windmills that involve cutting down forests to create tracks for access to the windmills, and the massive amounts of concrete used for the base of the windmills, and the damage they do to birds that get smashed by the spinning blades, and the visual destruction of what would otherwise be an appealing landscape, and so on.

However, solar panels can be constructed on areas that are not used for other purposes, such as all the roofs of all buildings, and solar farms can be built in deserts and arid regions where the sunlight is greatest and the land is useless for other purposes.

Some time ago I came across a calculation of the amount of energy that could be created if the whole of the uninhabited part of the Sahara Desert were covered with modern solar panels. The energy was about 20 times what the whole world currently uses, converting all forms of energy use into kilowatt equivalence.

There are also various types of solar paint that are under development, that can be applied to sold surfaces, such as house walls.
https://gemmill.com.au/blog/how-to-use-solar-paint-to-power-your-house/#:~:text=Developed%20by%20researchers%20at%20the,created%20in%20a%20liquid%20form.&text=The%20separated%20hydrogen%20is%20then%20utilised%20for%20power%20cells

Nuclear power is certainly a viable alternative to fossil fuels, but unfortunately the general public is aware of the severity of the disasters when things go wrong, for whatever reason. The Chernobyl disaster was apparently due to old technology and mismanagement, and the Fukushima disaster was due to a Tsunami which is beyond the control of mankind, although the authorities who approved the construction of the Fukushima reactor should have been aware that the area had a history of Tsunami events.

It would be very scary if nuclear power were to replace fossil fuels across the world, including less developed countries where corruption, incompetence and mismanagement are more prevalent.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2152 on: August 25, 2020, 02:21:09 pm »

Solar paint is interesting.  But the article doesn't go into how much electricity it can produce for a typical home or how to collect the hydrogen that is produced by the paint.  Nor does it provide the cost for converting hydrogen to electricity.

There are many ways to produce electricity that are too expensive and impractical.   Even solar and wind has cause the price of electricity in Germany to escalate to 2 1/2 times that of America.  That makes it impractical for poor countries.  For all its problems, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, and hydro are still the most practical and cost efficient methods.

JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2153 on: August 25, 2020, 03:40:49 pm »

Solar paint is interesting.  But the article doesn't go into how much electricity it can produce for a typical home or how to collect the hydrogen that is produced by the paint.  Nor does it provide the cost for converting hydrogen to electricity.

There are many ways to produce electricity that are too expensive and impractical.   Even solar and wind has cause the price of electricity in Germany to escalate to 2 1/2 times that of America.  That makes it impractical for poor countries.  For all its problems, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, and hydro are still the most practical and cost efficient methods.

Germany pays almost twice as much as France and produces 10 times the emissions. 

Yep, all that solar and wind are paying off in spades.  France needs to get with the program and drop nuclear.   ;D ;D ;D

Powering the world off of solar and wind is nothing but romance, and I get it, living in harmony with nature.  Only problem is, it has never worked and does not here, unless you want to go back to hunter gatherer living. 
« Last Edit: August 25, 2020, 03:47:29 pm by JoeKitchen »
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2154 on: August 25, 2020, 03:55:03 pm »

Germany pays almost twice as much as France and produces 10 times the emissions. 

Meaningless rhetoric without attribution.


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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2155 on: August 25, 2020, 04:38:51 pm »

Meaningless rhetoric without attribution.

Okay, well lets see.  They have a 51% capacity from solar and wind, but have never broken a 20% threshold of actual electricity used from those sources.  So, to make up for the inconsistency of solar and wind, they build coal fire plants like it going out of style, which is what leads to their emissions. 

France on the other hand just uses nuclear, which can produce energy in demand, so no need to supplemental plants of any kind, leading to lower emissions. 

As I said, solar and wind is nothing but a high school romance you still can got over losing in your 50s. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2156 on: August 25, 2020, 07:37:32 pm »

Before Covid caused NYS to lose $30 billion in taxes and not be able to afford anything, Democrat Governor Cuomo of Covid nursing home fame passed through about $2 billion dollars for off-shore electric wind generators.  Of course they didn't mention the billions more they need to supplement them with new fossil fuel generation plants when the wind isn't blowing.  The whole cost will be subsidized in higher electric charges to New Yorkers.  However, the cost will not be specifically itemized in their bills.  They'll just bury it in the overall cost per KWH so no one will know how expensively stupid the whole plan is.

Pretty soon we'll be like Germany.

degrub

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2157 on: August 25, 2020, 10:10:35 pm »

Me, I prefer using “unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine”.

That’s one way to get moving in the morning  ;D
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2158 on: August 25, 2020, 11:44:25 pm »

Powering the world off of solar and wind is nothing but romance, and I get it, living in harmony with nature.  Only problem is, it has never worked and does not here, unless you want to go back to hunter gatherer living.

I'm surprised that a photographer would have such a troglodyte attitude, considering how remarkably fast the technological improvement of digital cameras has been since the 1980's and 1990's, and how much the cost of each new generation of digital cameras has fallen in tandem with increased efficiency and sophistication.

When I first came across this site, Michael Reichmann was praising the 3mp Canon D30 which he claimed could produce an image equal to the quality of 35mm film on an A4 size print. For prints larger than A4, 35mm film still had the edge.

I was interested, but the price was too high. I waited until the 6mp Canon D60 came out, and ever since then I've been gradually upgrading as sensor quality improved and prices fell. My latest purchase, the Nikon Z50 with the two kit lenses, is an absolute bargain, about 10x the quality and sophistication of the original Canon D30 and a fifth of the price.  ;)

If there's a will to continue developing solar technology, the degree of improvement, from this point on, could be similar to the degree of improvement in digital camera technology over the past two decades.

We all know that the sun shines intermittently in any given location, and even if it usually shines all day in the desert, it doesn't shine at night. However, there are obvious solutions which you seem to ignore. Battery storage is currently too expensive for a household to become totally self-sufficient at a reasonable price, but as battery technology develops, as digital cameras have developed, there will be a point in the future (most probably) when solar panels and solar paint, on roofs, walls and windows, in conjunction with advanced battery storage, provide very cheap and affordable energy, especially when one includes the benefit of recharging one's Electric Vehicle at no extra cost. How much does the average person spend on gasoline for their car each year?

There is also the option of including a 'Virtual Power Plant' within a suburban community of households with battery storage, where the excess power in one household is distributed to another household with a shortage of supply.

"A VPP is a collection of home solar batteries that provide on-demand battery power in order to support the electricity grid in times of need. This type of power plant helps stabilize the grid and prevent blackouts while also lowering overall electricity costs but it is typically overlooked when solutions are more broadly considered."

Another much broader solution is to connect numerous areas around the world with 'High Voltage Direct Current' transmission lines, preferably underground or accompanying long distance water pipes, or placed under the sea bed. HVDC transmission lines can transmit electricity over thousands of kilometres, with relatively little loss of energy. There are already a many such lines installed across Europe. Refer attached image from Wikipedia.

Regarding Nuclear Power, I agree that it is a viable alternative to fossil fuels, but there is a huge problem with the nuclear waste and the decommissioning of Nuclear Plants that have served their purpose. We've already discussed the future problems of recycling millions of solar panels, and that this future cost should be included in the cost of electricity generated from those solar panels.

Imagine if there were tens of thousands of nuclear power plants around the world. What would be the cost of successfully disposing of the waste without environment harm? How often would we experience a terrible disaster like Chernobyl and Fukushima?

Here's an article which addresses the problems that France faces.

"Most fuel unloaded from nuclear reactors in France is reprocessed; however, due to its excessive heat it first has to be cooled in 4m-deep ‘pools’ of water for several years.
This process generates intermediate and high-level waste.
The latter, also known as long-lived waste, is vitrified. This generates immense heat and requires the spent fuel to be cooled for several decades before it can be permanently stored and disposed of. Intermediate-level waste follows a similar treatment process.
After decades of cooling, France, like most other nuclear power generating countries, has no long-term solution in place for high and intermediate spent fuel waste disposal.
For now there is no rush at least, as Hoorelbecke says the disposal of high-level waste being produced at present will only happen around 2080, more than five to eight decades after reprocessing."


https://www.power-technology.com/features/managing-nuclear-waste-france-long-short-game/

Here's another article which addresses the problems of decommissioning.

"How much have France, Germany and UK set aside for decommissioning?
Whereas Germany has set aside €38 billion to decommission 17 nuclear reactors, and the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority estimates that clean-up of UK’s 17 nuclear sites will cost between €109‒250 billion over the next 120 years, France has set aside only €23 billion to decommissioning its 58 reactors. To put this in context, according to the European Commission,
Soon EDF will have to start the biggest, most complex and costliest nuclear decommissioning and radioactive waste management programme on earth."


https://energypost.eu/how-much-will-it-really-cost-to-decommission-the-aging-french-nuclear-fleet/

I hope you can see, Joe, that I have completely demolished your argument, and I hope you are honest enough to admit it.  :D

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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #2159 on: August 28, 2020, 08:07:12 pm »

Okay, well lets see.  They have a 51% capacity from solar and wind, but have never broken a 20% threshold of actual electricity used from those sources.  So, to make up for the inconsistency of solar and wind, they build coal fire plants like it going out of style, which is what leads to their emissions. 

France on the other hand just uses nuclear, which can produce energy in demand, so no need to supplemental plants of any kind, leading to lower emissions. 

As I said, solar and wind is nothing but a high school romance you still can got over losing in your 50s.

At the risk of repeating myself: "meaningless rhetoric without attribution."
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