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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 49268 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1320 on: January 15, 2020, 05:04:39 am »

...we can confidently say that Texas, Whateverville, over some longer period of time, will become warmer...

So?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1321 on: January 15, 2020, 05:11:21 am »

There is a lot of stupid art and bananas taped to the wall in various galleries purchased for millions of dollars. That money could be used more wisely for solar panels, cow fart bags or catching microplastics in the oceans.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1322 on: January 15, 2020, 08:46:45 am »

Some measures may actually bring efficiencies.  In any case the cost of doing nothing or even too little is likely to be greater than the cost of effective action.

The US has 17% of world population and 50% of world military expenditure.  There must be scope for saving there.
America is doing stuff already.  Tesla sold Australia millions of dollars in batteries to backup electricity production there.  Tesla also makes electric cars sold throughout the world and is building a 2 billion dollar plant in CHina for their consumption..  We're doing a lot of other stuff as well.  But the kind of spending required to make a difference in the climate is huge.  Without CHina and India, it's going nowheres. 

Additionally, we could cut back on military spending.  But is Australia ready to go it alone against the Chinese in the Pacific if we recall our Pacific fleet to save money.  WHo are you going to join forces with? VietNam? Taiwan? the Philippines?  Would you prefer theirs or American power as a partner?  If you increase your spending to make up the difference so you can protect yourself better, where will the Australian money come from to pay for green energy plans?  Ditto with Europe.  If we pull back, than Europe has to spend more on their military as well leaving less money for green.  Spending money is a zero sum game.

I suppose Americans could accept less Social Security money in retirement. Or less government sponsored medical care.  But what American politician is going to vote for those reductions in benefits to help the climate out 50 years from now so some poor Bangladeshis won't have another foot of seawater?  Do you think most Americans care about other rich Americans who can afford to live by the shore? Here in New Jersey, they putting their homes on stilts if they live by the beach.  Cheap solution for rising seas.

Which Australian politician would vote to shut down Australia's coal export business to China?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1323 on: January 15, 2020, 09:04:56 am »

... In any case the cost of doing nothing or even too little is likely to be greater than the cost of effective action...

This is one of those cutesy sayings that make people saying them oh, so warm and feel so smart, yet totally meaningless in the real world.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1324 on: January 15, 2020, 09:13:32 am »

So?

So what? That predictions of future climate are not very unreliable, given the right input?

After all, global temperature rise was predicted in 1896, the exact amount being dependent on the amount of fossil fuel burning. That human/anthropogenic aspect is the hard part to predict (because logic doesn't apply, and the human species is willing to destruct their own habitat). Let some miracle technology solve it in the future, and if not, who cares about future generations. Therefore, science also uses a "business as usual" model, and that paints a very grim outlook.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1325 on: January 15, 2020, 09:14:28 am »

This is one of those cutesy sayings that make people saying them oh, so warm and feel so smart, yet totally meaningless in the real world.

There are 'some' Australians who beg to differ...
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1326 on: January 15, 2020, 09:20:11 am »

This is one of those cutesy sayings that make people saying them oh, so warm and feel so smart, yet totally meaningless in the real world.

Virtually all human advancement contradicts your statement.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1327 on: January 15, 2020, 10:03:39 am »

Virtually all human advancement contradicts your statement.

Yet another one of those cutesy sayings that make people saying them oh, so warm and feel so smart, yet totally meaningless.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1328 on: January 15, 2020, 10:06:40 am »

... That predictions of future climate are not very unreliable...

Right.

Polar caps already melted two years ago, Glacier National Park will this year, Maldives are already under water since 2018, etc. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1329 on: January 15, 2020, 11:08:30 am »

Right.

Polar caps already melted two years ago, Glacier National Park will this year, Maldives are already under water since 2018, etc.

You shouldn't be so gullible and believe such blog posts or sensational stories. Listen to what solid peer-reviewed scientific evidence tells us (and check who funded the research).

1. No scientific reports to support that notion. Prediction of ice-free arctic sea-areas during summers, yes, but that would grow back during winter.
The US military also made contingency plans for an ice-free northern passage during summers, are that's a wise thing to do. 
2. No scientific report from a decade ago available.
3. No scientific reports that indicate the Maldives going under for quite a while. Summer storm floods with saltwater, yes, increasing salination of the islands' water due to rising water pressure from the sea, yes. But going under by 2018, no.
3.1 Maldives I: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41TCWEl-x_g
3.2 Maldives II: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aQqTFGxrmg
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 01:49:49 pm by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1330 on: January 15, 2020, 03:01:33 pm »

A novel way of showing lots of data in an informative way is known as Warming stripes, which shows average annual temperatures from the earliest official temperature recordings at a given location to present (2019). Many examples for different locations can be found here.

Admittedly, those are from a Climate Scientist's blog, but it links to the publicly available official source data sets.

Annual global temperatures from 1850-2017

The colour scale represents the change in global temperatures covering 1.35C [data]


Annual temperatures for Australia (1910-2017)

The colour scale goes from 20.7C (dark blue) to 23.0C (dark red)[data]

P.S. here are the stripes for your country: http://showyourstripes.info/
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 03:17:23 pm by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1331 on: January 15, 2020, 03:20:15 pm »

Bart, These are definitely prettier than your other chart in Hawaii on the mountaintop showing the CO2 levels.  :)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1332 on: January 15, 2020, 03:34:16 pm »

Bart, These are definitely prettier than your other chart in Hawaii on the mountaintop showing the CO2 levels.  :)

I agree, although the message is not pretty.

And maybe you like this animated CO2 chart more than the more static one:
Time history of atmospheric CO2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2mZyCblxS4
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1333 on: January 15, 2020, 03:36:46 pm »

I agree, although the message is not pretty.

And maybe you like this animated CO2 chart more than the more static one:
Time history of atmospheric CO2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2mZyCblxS4

I wish my investment chart looked like that.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1334 on: January 15, 2020, 03:59:03 pm »

You shouldn't be so gullible and believe such blog posts or sensational stories. Listen to what solid peer-reviewed scientific evidence tells us (and check who funded the research).

1. No scientific reports to support that notion. Prediction of ice-free arctic sea-areas during summers, yes, but that would grow back during winter.
The US military also made contingency plans for an ice-free northern passage during summers, are that's a wise thing to do. 
2. No scientific report from a decade ago available.
3. No scientific reports that indicate the Maldives going under for quite a while. Summer storm floods with saltwater, yes, increasing salination of the islands' water due to rising water pressure from the sea, yes. But going under by 2018, no.
3.1 Maldives I: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41TCWEl-x_g
3.2 Maldives II: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aQqTFGxrmg

 ;D ;D ;D

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1335 on: January 15, 2020, 04:16:04 pm »

You shouldn't be so gullible and believe such blog posts or sensational stories...

There we agree. I didn't believe it then, don't believe it now. The world is not ending in 12 years, Miami won't be underwater in "a few years,"  the world is not on the brink of extinction, etc.

But apparently you believe that.

kers

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1336 on: January 15, 2020, 06:18:28 pm »

There we agree. I didn't believe it then, don't believe it now. The world is not ending in 12 years, Miami won't be underwater in "a few years,"  the world is not on the brink of extinction, etc.

But apparently you believe that.
Maybe it won't be your problem, but certainly that of all future generations if we do not act.
The CO2-graphs show the simple result of man digging up carbon and burning it.
The forest fires in Austalia are a result and make the CO2 position worse ; The same happens in the USSR with the permafrost soils.
In that case the temperature increase make the soils unfrozen and they release methane, a much more powerfull greenhouse gas, making the situation worse again.
Maybe you do not agree that the climate change is man-made; but it is clearly happening and we have to do something about it.
Burning less carbon is a good start.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1337 on: January 15, 2020, 06:25:57 pm »

Maybe it won't be your problem, but certainly that of all future generations if we do not act.
The CO2-graphs show the simple result of man digging up carbon and burning it.
The forest fires in Austalia are a result and make the CO2 position worse ; The same happens in the USSR with the permafrost soils.
In that case the temperature increase make the soils unfrozen and they release methane, a much more powerfull greenhouse gas, making the situation worse again.
Maybe you do not agree that the climate change is man-made; but it is clearly happening and we have to do something about it.
Burning less carbon is a good start.

If the permafrost melts, think of all the new arable land that will be available for farming.  Think of all the species that will be able to expand their populations into.  Think of all the grasses that will "eat" the CO2. 

Let's talk about benefits from warming.  Climate change has winners as well as losers.  History has shown that there are more winners than losers as the world has gotten warmer.  Life is more abundant today than any time in the past since the last ice age for most species including man.  A couple of extra degrees will make it even better.  Sure, it may negatively affect 150 million people who live a low areas by the sea.  By there's billions more that warmer weather will make it better for. 

Think of all those cold Canadians who won;t have to flee to FLorida in the winter.   :)

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1338 on: January 15, 2020, 07:48:29 pm »

If the permafrost melts, think of all the new arable land that will be available for farming.  Think of all the species that will be able to expand their populations into.  Think of all the grasses that will "eat" the CO2. 

Let's talk about benefits from warming.  Climate change has winners as well as losers.  History has shown that there are more winners than losers as the world has gotten warmer.  Life is more abundant today than any time in the past since the last ice age for most species including man.  A couple of extra degrees will make it even better.  Sure, it may negatively affect 150 million people who live a low areas by the sea.  By there's billions more that warmer weather will make it better for. 

Think of all those cold Canadians who won;t have to flee to FLorida in the winter.   :)

Alan, we had this discussion before. The sudden and unpredictable temperature swings are a big problem. As shown somewhere else on the first few pages of this thread, 2 degrees higher temperatures killed thousands of people in Asia and Europe in the recent summers.
 
This year, in Ontario we had 15 record warm days. That's as of 15th of January. We haven't been able to skate outdoors yet, but more slush and ice the ice had been forming on the sidewalks than usual. The warm winter days ruin also all the fun and fish harvesting from the winter ice fishing. Most fishing huts are still sitting in the suburban driveways and backyards. Not speaking about ruined skiing season.

The changing weather patterns are also a problem for the snow birds. In southern Florida, the second half of December was the coldest, windiest and wettest 2 week period in the recent history. With huge and angry waves preventing swimming in the ocean.

The greatest benefactors of warmest weather in the northern hemisphere are all kinds of insects. Personally, I saw in Ontario a great increase in japanese beetles, mosquitoes, and ticks. The onslaught of japanese beetles destroyed many berry bushes in matter of days and the hordes of mosquitoes ruin all fun from carrying a canoe just from the parking lot to the lake. The problem with destroyed berry bushes is not only that one summer harvest, but a setback for the entire plant. Two seasons in a row like that, and the mature and nice bushes are finished.

kers

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1339 on: January 15, 2020, 08:02:59 pm »

If the permafrost melts, think of all the new arable land that will be available for farming. ...
No Alan, these will be muddy swamps with methane bubbling up.
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