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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 211304 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1040 on: November 09, 2019, 12:46:00 pm »

;D

Good luck with that.

Luck has little to do with it.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1041 on: November 09, 2019, 01:23:43 pm »

Ray, were it that normal in the past, no vegetation-dependent wildlife would have survived because left unchecked by man, the fires would have spread everywhere there was vegetation to burn. Maybe some ants, snakes, lizards and other hole-entering creatures could have survived, but even then, you can cook by placing a chicken in a hole and lighting a fire above it. Your nationally symbolic creatures would have sizzled in their holes, barbecued on branches and charred in the meadows.

Sure, settlers probably brought their own dogs now and again, but that would have been much later in history. Camels yes, but I'm sure they didn't think to ship in spare kangaroos and koalas from somewhere, let along eucalyptus trees.

Right now, I'd like to be in Australia and watch frolicking indigenous kangaroos and imported bunnies.
Here, in southern Ontario we got an early snowfall a couple of days ago. The roads are bare, but the ground and roofs are still covered with 10cm of snow. It's not an extreme cold, but for early November extremely annoying.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1042 on: November 09, 2019, 03:16:58 pm »

Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, and this time it's caused by human activity (burning of fossil fuel and landuse are the main contributors).


https://www.noaa.gov/news/summer-2019-was-hottest-on-record-for-northern-hemisphere

This is causing a shift in weatherpatterns and more frequent droughts and floods. Food security is at risk.
The most used foodsource in the world, rice, is showing increasing levels of arsenic and lower yields which will negatively affect the poorest populations the most.

The frequency of extreme weather events is also increasing.
No wonder you didn't want to explain what the chart numbers mean.  You can't understand what they mean.  The chart is meaningless.  I read the explanation and I don;t understand a word it says.  There's no relationship between the numbers in the chart and to anything in English anyone could understand.  It's gobbledygook. These scientists should take a course on writing English.  They should be made to give back their grant money.

"Frequency of occurrence (vertical axis) of local June-July-August temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean) for Northern Hemisphere land in units of local standard deviation (horizontal axis). Temperature anomalies in the period 1951-1980 match closely the normal distribution ("bell curve", shown in green), which is used to define cold (blue), typical (white) and hot (red) seasons, each with probability 33.3%. The distribution of anomalies has shifted to the right as a consequence of the global warming of the past three decades such that cool summers now cover only half of one side of a six-sided die, white covers one side, red covers four sides, and an extremely hot (red-brown) anomaly covers half of one side.."

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1043 on: November 09, 2019, 04:04:30 pm »

Alan, as I interpret the patterns in the chart, the summers in the northern hemisphere are getting hotter (see the dark red section past 3 degrees on the last chart on the right).
The winters are no picnic either. In Toronto, next week the night temperatures will drop to -14C.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1044 on: November 09, 2019, 04:17:06 pm »

Alan, as I interpret the patterns in the chart, the summers in the northern hemisphere are getting hotter (see the dark red section past 3 degrees on the last chart on the right).
The winters are no picnic either. In Toronto, next week the night temperatures will drop to -14C.

But what do the numbers mean?  Farenheit or Centigrade?  And what frequencies do they represent?  I can;t decipher the numbers on the left.  If it's let's say 1 or 2 extra hot days during a two month summer, that's just a perturbation.  If it's ten days that that would be more significant.  There's no way to decipher any meaning other than it appears hotter.  But by what?

Yeah it's getting cold like that next week here too.  They expect 150 records to fall in the US due to the freeze.  But, you know, it's just a local weather pattern when it's frigid like that and a significant climate change example if the weather gets hot.  It's spin like that that weakens the whole climate change position.  They keep changing the goal posts.  :)

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1045 on: November 09, 2019, 05:07:18 pm »

You didn't answer my question. I asked a simple question what do the numbers mean on the x-axis and what do the numbers mean on the y-axis?
You posted a phony chart that has no meaning. It's your job to correct it not mine.

It's your job to educate yourself.

But here, I'll give you a helping hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1046 on: November 09, 2019, 05:20:11 pm »

It's your job to educate yourself.

But here, I'll give you a helping hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics
That's how to convert people to your side.   Insult them.

Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1047 on: November 09, 2019, 05:22:34 pm »

I have no intention of "converting" anyone. 
I did offer a helping hand.  You can take that any way you like.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1048 on: November 09, 2019, 06:28:18 pm »

The latest contribution by Rob in the Music thread links to a song by Vince Anthony which mentions a woman who left him freezing in the cold
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=122471.msg1138534#msg1138534 
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1049 on: November 09, 2019, 06:33:09 pm »

It's your job to educate yourself.

But here, I'll give you a helping hand...

You mean your condescending hand?

Short of getting a college or postgraduate course in statistics, those charts are not meant for the general public consumption. These are charts meant for peer-level review (and that literally means rocket scientists). Some of us can understand them thanks to previous statistical education, but they should not be offered to the general public in such a form, nor one should expect the general public to "educate themselves" in college-level statistics in order to understand them.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1050 on: November 09, 2019, 07:23:16 pm »

You mean your condescending hand?

Short of getting a college or postgraduate course in statistics, those charts are not meant for the general public consumption. These are charts meant for peer-level review (and that literally means rocket scientists). Some of us can understand them thanks to previous statistical education, but they should not be offered to the general public in such a form, nor one should expect the general public to "educate themselves" in college-level statistics in order to understand them.

Thanks for the defense.  I think.  :) 

What do those charts mean in heat days differences between the periods covered?  Or how about just giving averages degree differences that everyone could understand?   Those are things all people can identify with, not statistical variables on deviation charts that you can't feel.  At least, everyone could understand Bart's last chart in Hawaii measuring the CO2 on top of Mauna Loa. :) 

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1051 on: November 09, 2019, 08:02:11 pm »

Ray, were it that normal in the past, no vegetation-dependent wildlife would have survived because left unchecked by man, the fires would have spread everywhere there was vegetation to burn. Maybe some ants, snakes, lizards and other hole-entering creatures could have survived, but even then, you can cook by placing a chicken in a hole and lighting a fire above it. Your nationally symbolic creatures would have sizzled in their holes, barbecued on branches and charred in the meadows.

Sure, settlers probably brought their own dogs now and again, but that would have been much later in history. Camels yes, but I'm sure they didn't think to ship in spare kangaroos and koalas from somewhere, let along eucalyptus trees.

Rob,
The most current records we have, show that drought and bush fires are a normal feature of the Australian climate.  The Aboriginals used fire for many thousands of years to control the environment. The fires were used as a tool that encouraged the growth and extent of grasslands to enhance the hunting of kangaroos, and so on, reduce levels of fuel on the forest floor, and keep vegetation from becoming dense and hard to walk through.

Recent Antarctic ice cores reveal that there have been far worse mega droughts in the past, in Australia, than anything experienced since the British colonized the country. The famous Eucalyptus tree which sheds its bark seasonally, instead of its leaves as most trees do, contributes to the frequent bush fires because it provides so much fuel, including oils, that easily burn. However, the trees have adapted to survive bush fires better than most other trees. They regrow from the ashes. From Wikipedia:

"Eucalyptus oil is highly flammable; ignited trees have been known to explode. Bushfires can travel easily through the oil-rich air of the tree crowns. Eucalypts obtain long-term fire survivability from their ability to regenerate from epicormic buds situated deep within their thick bark, or from lignotubers, or by producing serotinous fruits."

The previous drought in Australia, known as the Millennium drought, from 2001 to 2009, was described as the worst on record. When the drought broke in 2010-11, the rainfall was so significant, and the natural inland lakes, such as lake Eyre, were so dry, that the amount of accumulated water prevented from flowing back to sea, stopped global sea level rise for 18 months. Global sea levels even fell slightly, initially.

An 8-year drought sounds awful, but how awful would a 39-year drought be? The ice-core records show this occurred in Australia during the Medieval Warm Period.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291167238_A_new_direction_for_Antarctic_ice_cores_reconstructing_Pacific_decadal_variability_and_Australian_drought_history_from_the_Law_Dome_ice_core

"Eight ‘mega-droughts’ (dry periods >5 years duration) were identified over the last millennium. Six mega-droughts occurred between AD 1000-1320 including one 39 y drought (AD 1174–1212). Water resources and infrastructure planning in Australia has been based on very limited statistical certainty around drought risk due to the short ( 100 year) instrumental record and lack of rainfall proxies. This study shows that, similar to SW North America, Australia also experienced mega-droughts during the medieval period. Knowledge of the occurrence, duration and frequency of such mega-droughts will greatly improve drought risk assessment in Australia."

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2014/antarctic-ice-cores-tell-1000-year-australian-drought-story

“The study shows that the Millennium Drought was far from an exceptional event for eastern Australia during the past thousand years.”

“Droughts lasting longer than five years are in fact a normal part of long-term climate variability, and should therefore be factored into catchment management.”

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) describes a roughly 25-year cycle in the sea surface temperature, wind and other factors in the Pacific Ocean.

The IPO’s positive phase is closely linked with longer and more severe droughts in the United States and Australia. The risk of droughts occurring in Australia is higher during the IPO’s positive phase.


Hope I've managed to elucidate this issue for you.  ;)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1052 on: November 09, 2019, 09:26:24 pm »

While not as significant as Australia, NYC had a drought emergency back in the 1980's.  Our reservoirs went from a normal 88% filled to capacity to around 30%, about 120 days of use worth.  Restaurants stopped providing a glass of water with your meals.  The government instituted requirements for flow restrictors on showers to reduce the amount of water used.  Then, they changed flushometer requirements on toilets to 1 gallon per flush rather than 5.  That rule spread around the country.  Despite there being no droughts since, forty years later I still suffer from that design regulation when stuff gets stuffed up and won't go down requiring the use of a plunger I keep nearby to relieve the clog.  Yeach!

New York City never let up.  Nine years ago when I was a project manager for NYC School Construction, they decided to upgrade all the toilets in the 1200 schools in the city.  Most were operating on the the old 5 gallon standard.  So they had dozens of people survey every toilet and shower in all the buildings just to figure out what had to be done.  I calculated on my own that the savings would represent maybe 1-2% of the city's use of water on a normal days, not much of a savings considering the cost to upgrade.  Fortunately, before they started this inane project, I moved to New Jersey, then retired,  and bought a new plunger to deal with my own problems with water supply.  I don't think they actually did the project.  Maybe Hurricane Sandy reminded them they had bigger problems with an oversupply of water, not a lack of it. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1053 on: November 10, 2019, 09:55:03 am »

Just saw an interesting documentary about Climate Change from 2017, and I can recommend seeing it if you get the opportunity.

Age of Consequences
The investigation of climate change impacts on increased resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability.
http://theageofconsequences.com/

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1054 on: November 10, 2019, 10:12:12 am »

Just saw an interesting documentary about Climate Change from 2017, and I can recommend seeing it if you get the opportunity.

Age of Consequences
The investigation of climate change impacts on increased resource scarcity, migration, and conflict through the lens of US national security and global stability.
http://theageofconsequences.com/

Cheers,
Bart

Climate change has always had a major impact on the destruction of civilizations such as the Mayan, Angkor Wat in Cambodia, even Egypt at one time 4000 years ago, and many others.  It also led to major changes in war and peace as to who was in charge.  Just the warming up after the last ice age allowed humans to inhabit the rest of the planet.  So warming itself has been very good for the human species.  A few more degrees will make it better.  It didn't require levels in CO2 to change to have a major effect on human history. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1055 on: November 10, 2019, 10:26:08 am »

Climate change has always had a major impact on the destruction of civilizations such as the Mayan, Angkor Wat in Cambodia, even Egypt at one time 4000 years ago, and many others.  It also led to major changes in war and peace as to who was in charge.

Correct, and the situation in Syria and the emergence of ISIS is one of several recent examples.

Quote
Just the warming up after the last ice age allowed humans to inhabit the rest of the planet.  So warming itself has been very good for the human species.  A few more degrees will make it better.  It didn't require levels in CO2 to change to have a major effect on human history.

You obviously have not seen the documentary ...
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1056 on: November 10, 2019, 10:50:49 am »

You obviously have not seen the documentary ...
Of course not. Alan is too lazy to educate himself. It might interfere with his preconceptions.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1057 on: November 10, 2019, 10:57:30 am »

Of course not. Alan is too lazy to educate himself. It might interfere with his preconceptions.

Watching propaganda videos hardly counts as education. Unless one studies propaganda, of course.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1058 on: November 10, 2019, 11:01:58 am »

Watching propaganda videos hardly counts as education. Unless one studies propaganda, of course.

Correct, if one is watching propaganda videos ...

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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1059 on: November 10, 2019, 11:04:43 am »

Of course not. Alan is too lazy to educate himself. It might interfere with his preconceptions.
There you go again resorting to personal attacks.
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