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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 54619 times)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #220 on: July 25, 2019, 10:44:55 pm »

Today, the temperatures in the Netherlands were a record high since the mid 1800's (records before that were not as scientifically accurate or methodical).

What also appears not to register with the climate change deniers (could it be caused by their brains overheating?) is that the rate of temperature rise is unprecedented (especially absent solar irradiance maxima or change in earth axis tilt, or orbital forcing) in known history.

Don't you notice a contradiction in your above statements, Bart? You claim temperature records before the mid 1800's are not as scientifically accurate as current temperatures records, then go on to claim that the current rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.

I think what you should have written is, "It is thought, by those who believe in the AGW hypothesis, that the current rate of warming is unprecedented, but this cannot be confirmed with any confidence because of the lack of sufficiently accurate temperature records of the past."

Now that would have made more sense to those of us who are rational and unbiased.  ;)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #221 on: July 25, 2019, 10:50:41 pm »

It's nice to see you back Ray with your insight of the climate issues.

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #222 on: July 26, 2019, 12:18:16 am »

It's nice to see you back Ray with your insight of the climate issues.

Thanks, Alan. I've never denied that climate is always changing and that human activities in general quite likely have at least some effect on the current change in climate.

The problem is, it's impossible to accurately quantify the proportion of the current warming that is natural, the proportion which is caused by massive deforestation for agricultural purposes, the proportion which is due to land-clearing for mining purposes, urbanisation and the construction of roads and cities, and the proportion which is due to minuscule increases in atmospheric CO2 due to the burning of fossil fuels.

However, such uncertainty does not lend itself to political action.
The late Professor Stephen Schneider, who was Professor of Environmental Biology and Global Change at Stanford University, explained this problem of uncertainty and its solution quite clearly in the following quote, which I believe is the full quote.

"On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but – which means that we must include all doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands and buts.

On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change.

To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, means getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.

This “double ethical bind” we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."


Now, there's no harm in scientists hoping that they can be both honest and effective, but when they cease to be honest for any reason, they are ceasing to be scientific. Science is the pursuit of truth.


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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #223 on: July 26, 2019, 12:25:48 am »

... I've never denied that climate is always changing...

Of course it does... every 11 years.

Ivo_B

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #224 on: July 26, 2019, 04:51:06 am »

Good article in the local Flemish newspaper.

In short: there is no hard to prove one to one relation between climate change and human impact such as pollution, greenhouse gasses , etc. But, there is an influence on how the weather is impacted by the climate due to pe high Greenhouse gasses.

...
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 04:54:41 am by Ivo_B »
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #225 on: July 26, 2019, 05:44:14 am »

Of course it does... every 11 years.

Since climate is an average of weather events, we would need very accurate, numerous and wide-spread monitoring devices to confidently detect any slight change in climate during short periods of time on a global scale, but that doesn't mean the climate is not slowly changing from year to year. Something as complex and chaotic as the climate cannot possibly remain static.

That the average global temperature is claimed to have increased by approximately 1 degree Centigrade during the past 170 years does not sound alarming to me, especially considering that this figure is unlikely to be accurate due to the lack of sufficient measuring devices in the past, globally.

That most of this warming is claimed to have occurred since the 1950's, when I was a young kid at school, also doesn't seem alarming. One of the reasons I decided to emigrate to Australia is because I didn't like the bloody cold weather in the UK.  ;D

I'm currently in Thailand because I find the winter in semi-tropical Brisbane, Australia, is uncomfortably cold, and decided to holiday in a warmer climate. I recall in June this year, in Brisbane one day, watching the world weather report on TV. The forecast for the following day was a maximum of 20 degree C  in Brisbane, and a maximum of 20 degrees C in London. What a coincidence I thought. In London it's summer time, and in Brisbane it's winter time.

I'm sure glad I'm not in the UK, I felt. A rise in average temperature of just 0.8 degrees since the 1950's would not have been enough for me, had I remained n the UK.  ;D
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #226 on: July 26, 2019, 06:22:20 am »

Another day, another record



and 42.6C (108.7F) in Paris
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #227 on: July 26, 2019, 08:05:34 am »

Does the Gulf Stream have anything to do with the heat wave in Europe?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #228 on: July 26, 2019, 08:16:03 am »

Another day, another record



and 42.6C (108.7F) in Paris

Yes, 2 records in 2 days.

BTW, the official maximum temperature in the Netherlands was corrected to 40.7 °C (still a record) after an hour, since that was reported. The  1 degree spike was very short and very sudden, so probably an anomaly, so it was decided to use the temperature before and after that spike and label the spike but not use it for the official records. In urban areas the temprerature was even higher than on the official meadow.

And another record was set. Last night was the warmest night ever measured. The mercury at the end of the night, usually the coldest moment, remained stuck at 25.6  °C in Deelen. It's been climbing since but it looks like it's just going to miss yesterday's record by 1 degree or so.

Since last night we have an official heatwave.

This is exceptional according to meteorologists, because of the proximity of the sea which usually limits the possible temperature rise.

Cheers,
Bart
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #229 on: July 26, 2019, 08:25:34 am »

Does the Gulf Stream have anything to do with the heat wave in Europe?

I'm not sure if specifically the Gulf Stream is causing the current heat wave, but there is evidence that the air currents in general have changed in the recent years.
It is not important which of the air streams is causing a particular weather change, since this is not something you can control.
 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #230 on: July 26, 2019, 08:36:44 am »

Does the Gulf Stream have anything to do with the heat wave in Europe?

It's a combination of factors. A barely moving high-pressure system over the North-Eastern part of Europe transports warm land wind from Southern Europe to the North and reduces Relative Humidity during the day. The cooling effect of the Sea is less in countries next to the Sea. And global temperatures are rising, mostly over the Northern Hemisphere.

That heat also extracts a lot of moisture from the land/plants/crops. Lack of water, after not fully having recovered from last year's drought, causes crop failure and increases wildfire risks. In my country, the use of surface water for irrigation is prohibited. Like last year, it's probably going to be only a good year for wine, even at our higher latitudes.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. A while ago I 've read about a change in the meandering pattern of the jet-streams around the Arctic circle, but I'm not sure if that still plays a role in this particular heatwave. That change was supposed to cause High- and Low-pressure systems to move slower, become more stationary.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 08:46:39 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #231 on: July 26, 2019, 09:11:57 am »

I remember years ago when New York City had a water drought. We usually very good here in the Northeast as far as rain goes. But back then we had no water for a while or at least ienough quantities to make a difference. So they stopped serving water in restaurants you had to ask for it.

Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #232 on: July 26, 2019, 09:15:54 am »

Nope, the cooling, shifting GF has to be absolved of guilt: it's changed pressure areas driving African desert winds up through Europe and further northwards.

The fact that polar areas are melting puts more cold water into the system, and that system has to cope with that additional cold water, which will eventially heat up as the normally hotter waters also rise due to the other influences affecting the overall system.

As water is at its most dense at just under 4 degrees C, and not when ice, the cold water/melted ice caps/hotter water ratios, as they affect the ultimate levels of the seas, make for interesting calculations and conclusions.

No doubt we have suitable armchair experts here who will tell us what to expect.

:-)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #233 on: July 26, 2019, 07:43:19 pm »

Another day, another record



and 42.6C (108.7F) in Paris

Wow! That certainly is alarming. All-Time Record! What does 'all-time' mean? Surely it must mean 'since the Big Bang'. Isn't that when time began?  ;D
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RSL

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #234 on: July 26, 2019, 07:47:34 pm »

It means since the "media" started worrying about stuff like this.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #235 on: July 26, 2019, 08:58:42 pm »

Europeans who now don't use air conditioning much, will now run out and install AC's like crazy.  Electricity use will triple.  Fossil fuel plants will re-open. CO2 production will choke the polar bears and temperatures will hit 45 degrees C.   

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #236 on: July 26, 2019, 11:39:50 pm »

Complete structures can collapse in these record heat temperatures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhPC51ycqK0
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #237 on: July 26, 2019, 11:51:45 pm »

Complete structures can collapse in these record heat temperatures.

Let alone snowflakes ;)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #238 on: July 27, 2019, 01:27:25 am »

And now something to please our alarmist friends:

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #239 on: July 27, 2019, 02:05:16 am »

Also, as Alan Klein keeps pointing out, global warming has many positive impacts:

https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAETEWC?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare
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