Brexit Encore

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... and to pre-empt anyone disputing the excessive short positioning, latest JP Morgan data shows IMM shorts against the US dollar to now exceed the previous high (low) in March 2017

Are you saying that because someone is betting on a certain outcome, they are causing that outcome? Or, in other words, if I bet on a certain horse, I am causing it to win the race?

Besides, betting that the pound would fall, short-term, after Brexit, and in particular the hard one, is a no-brainer.

[Rob C]

Are you saying that because someone is betting on a certain outcome, they are causing that outcome? Or, in other words, if I bet on a certain horse, I am causing it to win the race?

Besides, betting that the pound would fall, short-term, after Brexit, and in particular the hard one, is a no-brainer.

That's why, obviously, the gang is doing what it's doing.

The secondary objective, of course, is to make my personal pension sink ever lower until I can no longer afford the Internet and publish revealing information. It's difficult to do battle with a richer person. That's the beauty of democracy: everyone is equal except where it counts.

Rob
;-(

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... One assumes, therefore, they (the lemmings) cannot, or more likely, will not read...

Fearing the dreaded label “lemming,” I read it.

So? The guy got dividends. I get them every quarter too (much smaller, though). That’s how investment funds and partnerships operate. Every year and in every country.

Is having a profit and distributing it to those who created it a new crime in Britain now?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

That's why, obviously, the gang is doing what it's doing.

Betting on an almost certain outcome is not going to make anyone particularly rich. Betting on a rise of Pound, however...

[Manoli]

Are you saying that because someone is betting on a certain outcome, they are causing that outcome? Or, in other words, if I bet on a certain horse, I am causing it to win the race?

All that needs to be said at this time is said in reply #1364.
There may be a breach of the ministerial code.

[jeremyrh]

Which means that the sentiment of the majority of the population, as well as the members of the parliament, is, still in favor of leave.

This isn't the case. A majority of MPs backed Remain (a majority of the population may or may not favour Leave.)

[Manoli]

Continuing, on a more serious note, Jolyon Maugham QC has invited the Prime Minister to ‘nob off’.
Attached screenshot explains all:

(Don’t you just LUV it!)

[Alan Klein]

It seems the are a lot of diversionary discussions about corruption, who really told the truth, SC decisions, and other arcane issues. These are all "beside the point" if and when Brexit happens a few weeks from now.   Much like what's happening here in the US, the real national issues aren't being discussed.  Here, it's immigration, debt, foreign affairs, etc.  But everyone would rather discuss what Trump told a comedian in the Ukraine. 

In GB, it seems that the main question should be what are the Brits going to do when Brexit happens.  Are any plans being discussed for this probably eventuality?  Are they prepared for it?

[faberryman]

In GB, it seems that the main question should be what are the Brits going to do when Brexit happens.  Are any plans being discussed for this probably eventuality?  Are they prepared for it?

A quick google search leads you to the following:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/no-deal-brexit-preparations

If you read the news, Boris Johnson's government is ostensibly working hard on preparations for a no deal Brexit, although details are scarce.

[Peter McLennan]

That's the beauty of democracy: everyone is equal except where it counts.
Rob
;-(

Excellent!

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

This isn't the case. A majority of MPs backed Remain ...

If so, what is stopping that majority to vote to revoke the Notice? Today?

[Alan Klein]

A quick google search leads you to the following:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/no-deal-brexit-preparations

If you read the news, Boris Johnson's government is ostensibly working hard on preparations for a no deal Brexit, although details are scarce.

But no one in this forum is discussing these things.  Trade, the border, medicine, transportation, international agreements, law, etc.  All these things will be profoundly changed once Brexit happens.   What should be done?  What's best for Britain? etc.  So it's being ignored.  Let Boris worry about it.  OK.  He certainly seems competent.   

[Rob C]

Fearing the dreaded label “lemming,” I read it.

So? The guy got dividends. I get them every quarter too (much smaller, though). That’s how investment funds and partnerships operate. Every year and in every country.

Is having a profit and distributing it to those who created it a new crime in Britain now?

Slobodan, you are ignoring the direct connection between shorting the pound and getting campaign funds to the tune of many zillions from people/companies doing just that. Do you not get it that driving the pound down by creating doubts about the value of the pound sterling is what the mad, and now violent driving towards a bad Brexit is what BoJo and his closest allies are doing? I believe that's the underlying point of it all, because apart from money, they stand to gain nothing from any other form of Brexit except this: if they manage to pull it off and get back into a majority governmemt, they place themselves in an unassailable position to pass whatever financial laws they see fit for their own best advantage.

The visible Tory party of the past no longer exists: the disguise has been tossed into the recycle bin.

And no, you have no need to advise me about share ownership and dividends.

Rob

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Slobodan, you are ignoring the direct connection between shorting the pound and getting campaign funds to the tune of many zillions from people/companies doing just that. Do you not get it ...

Rob,

1. Your "lemming" reference, to which I was responding in the part you quoted, was in relation to a totally different issue, nothing to do with shorting. Check your own links, it was in respect to annual capital gains distribution, typically required by law, among the partners of the investment fund.

2. As for shorting, seeing an investment opportunity and pouncing on it is what investors do. Since shorting the pound is such a no-brainer, no one stands to win much. Betting against what everybody else expects, however, is guaranteed to deliver a huge win (if the surprise happens, of course).

The way shorting works, the more likely the shorted event is to happen, the more shorting contracts become expensive. In the end, while you might win the prediction, you paid a high price for it.

[Rob C]

Rob,

1. Your "lemming" reference, to which I was responding in the part you quoted, was in relation to a totally different issue, nothing to do with shorting. Check your own links, it was in respect to annual capital gains distribution, typically required by law, among the partners of the investment fund.

2. As for shorting, seeing an investment opportunity and pouncing on it is what investors do. Since shorting the pound is such a no-brainer, no one stands to win much. Betting against what everybody else expects, however, is guaranteed to deliver a huge win (if the surprise happens, of course).

The way shorting works, the more likely the shorted event is to happen, the more shorting contracts become expensive. In the end, while you might win the prediction, you paid a high price for it.

https://reaction.life/no-deal-brexit-how-some-traders-will-be-gearing-up-to-short-the-pound/


That's how they still make it pay as it slides downwards.

[Alan Klein]

If it's comforting to know, in America, Congressmen and Senators may invest in companies before laws are passed affecting their industry.  So that their prices go up or down depending on the legislation.  The lawmakers know what laws are coming down before passing them.  So they invest having this insider information.  It's not illegal.  For them.  Everyone else who trades on insider information goes to jail. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

https://reaction.life/no-deal-brexit-how-some-traders-will-be-gearing-up-to-short-the-pound/

That's how they still make it pay as it slides downwards.

This is how little Johnny imagines shorting works (form the linked article, bold mine):

traders will be “shorting” the pound, which is when they offer to sell pounds for delivery after the Brexit deadline at a fixed value that they are likely to profit from. For example, they could offer to sell the pound at its current value of around US$1.21, for delivery on November 1, the day after Brexit. They then wait for the currency to fall and buy it on the spot market, where trades take place immediately – thereby pocketing the profit from selling them at US$1.21, having bought them at a much lower rate.

Ok, let's see. Imagine, Rob, you have enough money to play this game. Also, remember that every trade has two sides, buy and sell. So, for the sellers to make a killing, they have to find buyers first. Who in their sane mind, and at this point, would be willing to commit to buy the pound at the current rate ($1.21) on November 1st? Would you?

As I said, shorting works when it goes against the tide, not with. When everybody expects the pound to crash, nobody is going to make much money.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... So they invest having this insider information.  It's not illegal.  For them...

That I doubt. If it is insider information, it is illegal, for everyone. That some got away with it, like the former Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, is because it is difficult to discover and prove, not because it is legal for them.

[Rob C]

This is how little Johnny imagines shorting works (form the linked article, bold mine):

Ok, let's see. Imagine, Rob, you have enough money to play this game. Also, remember that every trade has two sides, buy and sell. So, for the sellers to make a killing, they have to find buyers first. Who in their sane mind, and at this point, would be willing to commit to buy the pound at the current rate ($1.21) on November 1st? Would you?

As I said, shorting works when it goes against the tide, not with. When everybody expects the pound to crash, nobody is going to make much money.

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=ipad_bm&source=hp&ei=K62PXaWaH6WLjLsPmaWD4AI&q=how+to+sell+short&oq=how+to+sell+short&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3..0i19l8.2370.9646..11969...0.0..0.136.1401.16j1......0....1.......8..41j41i19j41i13i30j41i10j41i22i30j41i22i30i19j0i131j0j5j46j46i131j46i131i275j46i275j0i22i30.hfKXMKeiyFU

The point is that in the Brexit scenario, there is still a way to go, and as the expected state of a bad-Brexit Britain and its currency deteriorates, yet more time to continue the game. It's gambling, and these cats are very rich and able to sit at that table as long as they think it works. It's not their only pot.

And other players jump in at different levels of the graph, holding for as long as their nerve does before they chicken out and act to close their hand.


What I would do is neither here nor there: I can't sit at the table. But by nature, I wouldn't play at all.

Add this little one to see what it's turning out to be all about:


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ht40yrt3VrY

[Alan Klein]

That I doubt. If it is insider information, it is illegal, for everyone. That some got away with it, like the former Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, is because it is difficult to discover and prove, not because it is legal for them.

The thing is it's not insider information about the company that let's say a CEO might have.  Lawmakers are making public policy with legislation that would affect an industry not necessarily a particular company. So they link is somewhat tenuous.  I believe there may be rules against this within Congress itself.  But I don;t know of anyone there who was ever prosecuted.  In any case, the point as was making is the similarity with Britain and Brexit and lawmakers investing on the effect of Brexit.  Will any minister vote to protect their investments rather than help their country?  I wouldn't want to invest a bet against human nature.