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Author Topic: Brexit Encore  (Read 149854 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #840 on: August 28, 2019, 02:01:33 pm »

Yes. No.

:-)

Damn, you beat me in brevity ;)

Which brings me to an anecdote from my career. I almost lost my job for answering a longish 3-part business inquiry from headquarters with:

1. Yes
2. No
3. God knows

I swear the answers were absolutely correct.

 :)
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 02:05:22 pm by Slobodan Blagojevic »
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James Clark

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #841 on: August 28, 2019, 02:09:10 pm »

The recent the whole Amazon is burning Fiasco is a perfect example of that. If the world could they would have strung up the president of Brazil. Yet most of it was a lot of hyperventilation and exaggeration. Whole Amazon wasn't on fire. The lungs of the world will not be  destroyed. But it points out to an important principle that popular opinion can become hysterical. The founders knew this and why they Limited the Senate and the presidency to the Electoral College. Passions can become very dangerous. People are dangerous.

Sure.  But let's not forget that Bolsonaro was elected by the same ignorant passions.  I'm not sure who comes out ahead there.
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James Clark

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #842 on: August 28, 2019, 02:10:46 pm »

Where are we? In kindergarten? We are now debating the dawn of democracy, where the majority could potentially (or really) slaughter the minority after an election? Or are we talking about modern times where there are ample constitutional and legal protections for those who lose an election?

Just yesterday you were trying to tell me that a newspaper columnist was on the verge of throwing you in the Gulag.  :)
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #843 on: August 28, 2019, 02:14:33 pm »

I don't pretend to know how they voted, but you apparently assume that 50% or more of the non-voters would have voted in favor of leaving ...  Talk about clairvoyant skills.

The non-voters opinions don't matter.  They told us so by not voting. 

If you don't value your opinion enough to get out and vote, or are not industrious enough to do so, then what you think is irrelevant. 

I have no horse in this race and could care less one way or the other with Brexit, but the fact is voting is your civic duty.  If you dont perform your civic duty, dont complain to me when things dont go your way. 
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jeremyrh

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #844 on: August 28, 2019, 02:18:50 pm »

Whole Amazon wasn't on fire.

And nobody said it was, no matter how many times you repeat it.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #845 on: August 28, 2019, 02:21:42 pm »


That's not a quote, it's a partial quote. Typical Slobodan, misrepresenting the truth.
I said this:

Oh, for God's sake, for the second time today I have to ask are we in kindergarten!  Your whole quote simply confirms what I said you meant: that if non-voting block is added to the minority who voted against, the minority would become majority.

So, either your claim that "the majority voted against" is an outright lie, or it becomes "majority" only if you add non-voters to it.

JoeKitchen

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #846 on: August 28, 2019, 02:25:57 pm »

Damn, you beat me in brevity ;)

Which brings me to an anecdote from my career. I almost lost my job for answering a longish 3-part business inquiry from headquarters with:

1. Yes
2. No
3. God knows

I swear the answers were absolutely correct.

 :)

I wish I could get answers like this from the art directors I work with sometimes. 

Me, "Do we want to bring in a prop stylist?"  "...  Well, you know, the room really does need to be styled, and ... umm ... some additional props would be good, but, well, do you think it could work out with what we have, and, like, ..."   Me, "do we have the additional $4K to $5K in the budget for a prop stylist?  "Well, umm, it could be nice, but ..."

Me, "what color pillows should we source?"  "How about like blue."  Me, "what shade of blue, navy blue, sky blue, cerulean blue?"  "I dont know, just something blue, like not too light but not too dark." 
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Rhossydd

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #847 on: August 28, 2019, 02:36:05 pm »

I don't pretend to know how they voted, but you apparently assume that 50% or more of the non-voters would have voted in favor of leaving ...  Talk about clairvoyant skills.
No clairvoyance involved. There's a HUGE amount of credible polling data from before and after 2016 to support the fact that the majority of the UK don't support leaving the EU.

The repeated polling before the referendum suggested that it was a 'done deal' to remain in the EU, so there was a huge amount of complacency about the result. In turn that meant that many of those that didn't appreciate the difference between projected opinion and actual votes cast failed to take part and were then surprised when the result wasn't what had been predicted.

The really devious part is the saturation, illegally funded and highly targeted advertising that managed to motivate a gullible few to vote and make the tiny swing to leave.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #848 on: August 28, 2019, 02:42:05 pm »

... There's a HUGE amount of credible polling data from before and after 2016 to support the fact that the majority of the UK don't support leaving the EU...

Based on the polling data, and with a 98% certainty, we in the US are now living under a Clinton presidency.

Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #849 on: August 28, 2019, 02:43:09 pm »

Yes. No.

:-)
If the majority feel brexit is so bad why don't they just vote it down?

jeremyrh

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #850 on: August 28, 2019, 02:51:38 pm »

If the majority feel brexit is so bad why don't they just vote it down?

Politicians. Self before party before country.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #851 on: August 28, 2019, 03:03:20 pm »

But I'm missing something here. If the majority of the people no longer want brexit, wouldn't the politicians have something to gain by voting it down?

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #852 on: August 28, 2019, 03:09:00 pm »

In theory, but its very rare for a PM not to have stood for election as the leader of the party and hence the PM designate. Incidentally when a Labour PM was not elected as such Johnson went on a rant about how disgraceful it was. One rule for the plebs and another for the Estonians.

It's not so rare: Johnson is the fifth in as many decades, following Callaghan, Major, Brown and May.

I think Johnson, like Darzi, is British.

Jeremy
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Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #853 on: August 28, 2019, 03:15:13 pm »

It looks like my president is jumping into the ring to help gum up the works. Hopefully he'll be kinder to Great Britain then he is to Puerto Rico.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiECVfBrXPSth7cHEiDgFX9DUqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

RSL

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #854 on: August 28, 2019, 03:22:02 pm »

And as a result, a minority of the populus dictates their will-of-the-day to the majority.

Bart, check this out.
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Russ Lewis  www.russ-lewis.com.

RSL

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #855 on: August 28, 2019, 04:18:55 pm »

Thanks Russ, but the electoral college is not the populus. It's a weighted average.

Bart, I don't know whether or not you've ever spent any time in the U.S., or traveled in our country, but unlike the Netherlands the United States is a large country whose population is diffuse in terms of occupations, attitudes, etc. To allow a monolithic culture such as the culture of New York to control the entire country not only would be absurd, it undoubtedly would lead to a revolution. I'm not sure what you mean when you call the product of the electoral college a "weighted average." I've worked with statistics enough that I might dispute that moniker if I understood what you mean by it. But what the electoral college is is a method of electing a president of all the people, not just the people of a population concentration. Notice that the electoral college isn't used to elect senators or members of the house. Individual states do that, pretty much by their own rules, but the president is a different matter. The president has to represent all the people, not just the people of a small region.

The people who wrote the Constitution knew what they were about, and the result has been the most successful country in the history of the world.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #856 on: August 28, 2019, 04:47:24 pm »

Bart, I don't know whether or not you've ever spent any time in the U.S., or traveled in our country, but unlike the Netherlands the United States is a large country whose population is diffuse in terms of occupations, attitudes, etc. To allow a monolithic culture such as the culture of New York to control the entire country not only would be absurd, it undoubtedly would lead to a revolution. I'm not sure what you mean when you call the product of the electoral college a "weighted average." I've worked with statistics enough that I might dispute that moniker if I understood what you mean by it. But what the electoral college is is a method of electing a president of all the people, not just the people of a population concentration. Notice that the electoral college isn't used to elect senators or members of the house. Individual states do that, pretty much by their own rules, but the president is a different matter. The president has to represent all the people, not just the people of a small region.

The people who wrote the Constitution knew what they were about, and the result has been the most successful country in the history of the world.


Hey.  Wait a minute.  I'm a New Yorker.  So is Trump.  I resent that compliment.   >:(

Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #857 on: August 28, 2019, 05:04:04 pm »

The usual result of populism, everybody loses.
Isn't being against populism an elitist attitude?  After all, the word populism refers to just that.  The regular people as opposed to the elite who think they should run everything and have the only "truth" when it comes to governmental control.  In any case, I see Saldini the populist may be out of a job.  Maybe the British could hire him?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism#In_the_United_States
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/world/europe/italy-government-salvini.html

Rob C

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #858 on: August 28, 2019, 05:35:33 pm »

Neither is any other previous British PM.

On a side note, is the Queen also a part of that "tyrants/dictators of the world, unite" conspiracy?


In normal times, a PM already heads a government going into an election. When the populace votes, it is usually voting for the figurehead it thinks best represents their ideals. The other parties have their leaders in that spotlit position too.

The Queen, poor dear, has no politicsl power worth squat. In effect, she's hostage to a charade.

Chris Kern

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Re: Brexit Encore
« Reply #859 on: August 28, 2019, 05:42:49 pm »

What is a discussion of the U.S. Electoral College doing in a thread about Brexit?

Anyway, in an effort to demystify the reason for this recondite provision of the U.S. Constitution, here are a few observations by the friendly folks who invented the concept.

The provision for an Electoral College, like almost every other significant part of the Constitution, was the product of considerable debate and eventual compromise.  The participants in the 18th Century constitutional convention discussed various options, and essentially concluded that none was perfect: among the alternatives suggested and ultimately rejected were selection of a president ("the executive") by the national legislature, similarly to having a prime minister for a parliamentary majority organize a government in a parliamentary model; appointment by a majority of the governors of the respective states; and direct election by those eligible to vote in the various states.

As James Wilson of Pennsylvania put it, "[t]his subject has greatly divided the House, and will also divide people out of doors. It is in truth the most difficult of all on which we have had to decide."

The issue was referred to a committee, which reported back on September 4, 1787, and recommended that

Quote
Each State shall appoint in such manner as its Legislature may direct, a number of electors equal to the whole number of Senators and members of the House of Representatives, to which the State may be entitled in the Legislature.

Gouverneur Morris of New York summarized the reasoning behind the concept that wound up in the proposed constitution, subsequently ratified by the states, which established the new national government:

Quote
Mr. Govr. Morris said he would give the reasons of the Committee and his own. The 1st. was the danger of intrigue & faction if the appointmt. should be made by the Legislature. 2 the inconveniency of an ineligibility required by that mode in order to lessen its evils. 3 The difficulty of establishing a Court of Impeachments, other than the Senate which would not be so proper for the trial nor the other branch for the impeachment of the President, if appointed by the Legislature, 4. No body had appeared to be satisfied with an appointment by the Legislature. 5. Many were anxious even for an immediate choice by the people— 6— the indispensable necessity of making the Executive independent of the Legislature. — As the Electors would vote at the same time throughout the U. S. and at so great a distance from each other, the great evil of cabal was avoided. It would be impossible also to corrupt them.

At various times, the existence of the Electoral College has been perceived to favor or disadvantage different parts of the country, depending on the politics of the moment.  There has never been a national consensus on the desirability of eliminating it in favor of direct election of a president, despite a few occasions when its operation resulted in the election of a president who received less than a plurality of the popular vote.

In any event, the U.S. Constitution is structurally difficult to amend: either a new constitutional convention must be convened, which has never happened, or both the House of Representatives and the Senate must vote on the same amendment language by two-thirds majorities followed by ratification by three-fourths (38) of the 50 states.  This has only happened 27 times, and the first ten amendments were added just a few years after the Constitution was initially adopted in order to reinforce that certain governmental authorities were beyond the purview of the national Congress and, in some cases, even of the state legislatures.

(By the way, for those who may be interested, it is possible to follow the proceedings of the U.S. constitutional convention on a day-by-day basis thanks to a detailed diary written by James Madison, a delegate to the convention from Virginia and later the third president of the United States.)
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 10:21:15 pm by Chris Kern »
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