I think Phase is terrified of spending the huge R&D dollars to develop a new system.
I couldn't speak to any project, or lack thereof, to develop a small/compact camera. But here are some examples in recent years of P1 investing tons of R+D money into long-term projects:
-
XF: they had to have a team working to improve/stabilize the DF/DF+ while also making a from-the-ground-up new camera
-
C1v4: they had to keep a full software team working on updating Capture One 3 for several years worth of developing Capture One 4, which was a ground-up rewrite
-
Schneider LS and LS Blue Ring line: they had already released a bevvy of Phase One D focal-plane lenses. Some of the LS versions were simply D lenses with a shutter, but many were ground-up new designs.
-
iXG a ground-up redesign/reimagining of the DT RCam
-
IQ1 a ground-up redesign of the P+
-
IQ4 while it shares the "IQ" name prefix, it is as internally different from an IQ3 as the IQ1 was from the P65+
I think you could easily find forum posts from a month/year before each of these releases where people speculated if P1 was willing to invest long-term R+D money into brand new systems.
If had to rank the most compelling/unique company-attributes for P1, "investing in long-term R+D" would be second on my list, right after "ability to drink heartedly after hours".
Also, an IQ4 150mp on a small tech camera really isn't that large or heavy. It lacks autofocus of course, but that's not a major hinderance to many architectural/landscape/still-life/interior photographers, especially given the addition of better/faster live view with Live Focus Mask (focus peaking). An XF with one of the smaller lenses (e.g. 55/80/110) with a WLF is also pretty light (everything is relative of course).
All that said, I think the XF IQ will still be a
big part of the lineup five or ten years from now. It's not a small/light system, but there are always compromises made (ergonomics, functionality, quality) required in going small, so whether or not they add a smaller/lighter system to the lineup (personally I hope they do) there will still be many use cases for an XF IQ or an IQ on a tech camera. This is, simply put, a camera where the only compromise is weight/size. In the past some (not many, but a meaningful niche) went for 4x5 or 8x10 over 645 or 6x7 or 6x17 even though they were meaningfully larger and heavier to carry. That is still the case today, and will still be the case tomorrow. To me the best possible case would be some big-brother little-brother pairing of an XF IQ with something smaller that could share as much as possible (lenses, accessories, interface, viewfinders, color response, even sensors somehow) and would allow you to pick form factor for a given job/shoot. When I'm shooting
Terra Nudum I don't mind the XF size/weight one bit. When I'm
shooting a wedding I still carry an XF but I'd be the first to say I wouldn't mind if it was half the weight!