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Author Topic: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018  (Read 89037 times)

Jonathan Cross

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #680 on: August 25, 2018, 05:31:50 am »

Much of this thread has concentrated on the specs of the Z7 and Z6, but can I look at it from a different angle.  All camera manufacturers need to sell to survive.  To whom will Nikon sell the Z7 and Z6?  I have been a Canon person for many years originally, I guess, by accident.  My first SLR after a Practika was a Canon. I have no idea now why it was not a Nikon.  About 30 years later I went digital and got a Canon 10D as I could keep my EF lenses.  I have ended up with a 5D3.  Eventually the lure of a smaller, lighter system with more information in the viewfinder lead me to try a Fuji X-E1 with the 18-55 lens.  It did not break the bank.  The XĖE1 eventually lead to a X-T1 and now an X-T2.  I am delighted and take more images and have more fun with a camera and lenses that I am happy to take around with me in a much smaller bag that the 5D3.  Mirrorless is for me.

Would I buy a Z7 or Z6? Very unlikely.  Why?  Too much cost for too little return now I am into mirrorless as many people I meet are.

Who will buy the Z7 and  Z6?  I guess that Nikon hopes to stem the number of people leaving for the likes of Sony, Fuji, and m4/3, by getting them to stay with Nikon when going mirrorless which seems an unstoppable development.  But what about converts?  Is the price too high given that such people will have to invest in glass as well unless adapters are made available.  (I do not like the thought of an adapter as it means extra weight and size.  I do not even like using a grip with extra batteries and prefer to just carry spare batteries in a little Think Tank battery holder.)  Will those who have another system be tempted to spend a considerable sum of money to change to Nikon?  As this is Nikonís first serious foray into mirrorless, they cannot sell to Nikon upgraders from a less good mirrorless body, so that market sector does not exist to them.

All of this will also apply to Canon unless they introduce a camera with real competitive advantage.  I do not know if the market will see the Z7 and Z6 as having sufficient competitive advantage.  I hope for Nikonís sake that people do.

Best wishes,
Jonathan
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #681 on: August 25, 2018, 06:23:45 am »

I donít care about dual card slots. Not everyone does. Not everyone shoots weddings. Perhaps naive but I have never had a card fail since I moved off CF and even those CFs that failed were DOA.

That's not the point. It wouldn't be aimed at you. The point is to introduce something that appeals heavily to one, significant market segment and can be a dominant product there, rather than something which does a bit for everyone without really providing a compelling reason for any one segment to migrate. Once you have a strong base there, then you can expand.

That's essentially what Sony did - they pretty much had the Canon-shooting amateur landscape segment by default, since Canon essentially ceded the space to them. And it's what Canon and Nikon will have to do too. You don't sell a product by making something that's mildly interesting to a whole lot of people - you need something that's really compelling to a particular segment to win converts.
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davidgp

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #682 on: August 25, 2018, 06:44:16 am »


Who will buy the Z7 and  Z6?  I guess that Nikon hopes to stem the number of people leaving for the likes of Sony, Fuji, and m4/3, by getting them to stay with Nikon when going mirrorless which seems an unstoppable development.  But what about converts?  Is the price too high given that such people will have to invest in glass as well unless adapters are made available.  (I do not like the thought of an adapter as it means extra weight and size.  I do not even like using a grip with extra batteries and prefer to just carry spare batteries in a little Think Tank battery holder.)  Will those who have another system be tempted to spend a considerable sum of money to change to Nikon?  As this is Nikonís first serious foray into mirrorless, they cannot sell to Nikon upgraders from a less good mirrorless body, so that market sector does not exist to them.


I assume that, if Canon takes too long to create a FF mirrorless camera and somebody like Metabones creates a Z system adapter for EF lenses to Z mount, maybe Canon users start to migrate to Nikon instead of Sony if they want to try mirrorless. If that scenario was happening like two years ago, I maybe ended using Nikon mirrorless system instead of the Sony I'm using now. But as you say, now that I'm converting to Sony system, still using some EF lenses on my kit... I don't have the economics means to change to a new system now or in a few years... I'm not a dentists after all...

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #683 on: August 25, 2018, 07:02:54 am »

Shadow do you have any evidence that the amateur landscape shooters are where Sony took market share from Canon or that they took market share from canon at all? Do you really think that with IBiS and great high ISO performance and with increasingly good AF and such things as eye focus that Sony set out to and accomplished the task of taking market share from canon in the landscape segment? Also where does your theory of needing fast glass fit in with landscape photography?

Anyway this is about Nikon. I have no idea what their plan is and nor do you. I think but dont know that they are planning a migration path for existing Nikon users. This offering does that imho. Sony needed to break into the market. Nikon need to retain existing Nikon clients. That is working I believe and my evidence for that is Bernard and several friends with Nikonís who are keen to give mirrorless a try. Two of them have 850s and the mirrorless gives them a more compact option that can be used with existing lenses should they wish to do so.
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DP

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #684 on: August 25, 2018, 07:46:46 am »

point to consider (Thom noted it) - Nikon again trying to protect D850 by cutting some features from Z7 to keep D850 better still ... so why 'd you go with a vendor who still does not go in dSLM with full force always keeping mirrorless cameras in 2nd spot ? vs Sony who is totally committed ?
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #685 on: August 25, 2018, 07:54:19 am »

I understand and agree, but this isnít about protecting the D850, it is about protecting the Z8/Z9.

I have a huge amount of respect for Thom, but he has been completely wrong in his forecast of Nikonís mirrorless moves till date.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 25, 2018, 08:05:44 am by BernardLanguillier »
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Alex Waugh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #686 on: August 25, 2018, 08:12:48 am »

I feel like the Z7 will be the flagship high MP body for a couple of years, do they expect studio photographers to live without high end features that they offer on their cheaper D850. I should not have to spend ~$4500+ to get these these things.

A Z9? high speed body for the Olympics is probably a given but commercial and editorial guys have no interest in that body.

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adriantyler

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #687 on: August 25, 2018, 08:18:05 am »

Are you aware that HCB built the most remarkable portfolio of the history of photography with a 35mm lens?

it was actually a 50mm. and just quickly off the top of my head iíll trow out 3 ďportfoliosĒ which have had far more importance to the history of photgraphy than hcb: atget, evans and frank.

sorry thatís totally off topic...
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #688 on: August 25, 2018, 08:21:14 am »

I feel like the Z7 will be the flagship high MP body for a couple of years, do they expect studio photographers to live without high end features that they offer on their cheaper D850. I should not have to spend ~$4500+ to get these these things.

A Z9? high speed body for the Olympics is probably a given but commercial and editorial guys have no interest in that body.

I donít when they will be released, but I think we will get:
- z8 which is a a9mk II competitor high speed camera
- z9 which is a a9r competitor with 60+ megapixel

I would bet summer 2019 announcement.

Cheers,
Bernard

Alex Waugh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #689 on: August 25, 2018, 08:25:19 am »

I donít when they will be released, but I think we will get:
- z8 which is a a9mk II competitor high speed camera
- z9 which is a a9r competitor with 60+ megapixel

I would bet summer 2019 announcement.

Cheers,
Bernard

If $3400 is the price of the prosumer models I might get priced out by Nikon. No hard feelings but it would be a shame. It costs what it costs I guess.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2018, 08:30:09 am by Alex Waugh »
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #690 on: August 25, 2018, 08:32:24 am »

If $3400 is the price of the prosumer models I might get priced out by Nikon. No hard feelings things cost what they cost.

Well, this shouldn't come as a surprise, the a9 isn't cheap either.

Now, I have been the first about reporting and complaining about the lack of double memory slot on the Z6/Z7, I fully share the feeling that Nikon has made a huge product planning mistake by omitting this feature. And I would totally understand anybody thinking that this is a regrettable choice that may be life threatening for Nikon.

The only hope would be that they have a solution with their upcoming battery grip that I would find acceptable. But I sincerely doubt it.

My only point here isn't to find excuses for Nikon, but to provide what I think is the right explanation for their decisions.

Cheers,
Bernard

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #691 on: August 25, 2018, 08:35:56 am »

it was actually a 50mm. and just quickly off the top of my head iíll trow out 3 ďportfoliosĒ which have had far more importance to the history of photgraphy than hcb: atget, evans and frank.

sorry thatís totally off topic...

My bad, you are correct, but this doesn't change the story. ;)

Beyond that, yes, the importance of the relative portfolios can be discussed and I do agree that at least Atget and Frank are serious candidates. I am less of a fan of Evans, but who cares about what I like.

As I know you have fully understood, the point is that the right camera with a 50mm or 35mm lens can change history.

Cheers,
Bernard

jeremyrh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #692 on: August 25, 2018, 08:42:10 am »

Now, I have been the first about reporting and complaining about the lack of double memory slot on the Z6/Z7, I fully share the feeling that Nikon has made a huge product planning mistake by omitting this feature. And I would totally understand anybody thinking that this is a regrettable choice that may be life threatening for Nikon

Not every purchaser is as wise as you. I assumed that the 2 card slots on the 800 were so the user could choose between SD and CF. It didn't occur until later that I could use one as a backup. And even then I mostly didn't.
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Alex Waugh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #693 on: August 25, 2018, 08:45:22 am »

Well, this shouldn't come as a surprise, the a9 isn't cheap either.

The A9 isn't cheap but most people don't need A9 features, they're niche. Sony position the A7R3 as their pro studio camera (currently). It has great AF + eye AF, dual slot, great battery life. I also don't like it for a myriad of reasons but if Sony can provide these features for $3k then I'd like Nikon to for $3400

Nikon flagship studio DSLR is $3200 and probably costs more to produce.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #694 on: August 25, 2018, 08:46:47 am »

I think the dual card issue is really not all that important.  As was noted if a card is bad, it is 99% of the time DOA and doesn't fail while shooting.  Event photographers got along just fine with single card DSLRs since the cameras were invented (I'm unsure at what point dual card cameras came on the market; maybe the last five years??).  Event photographers also don't need lots of megapixels as most of the output will not be printed but kept in digital form.  Two women who used to work for me in the pharma industry are now highly respected event photographers and they have told me there is seldom any request for more than a couple of images being printed.

IMO, the big advantage of mirrorless is in size and weight assuming image quality is not compromised by camera/lens design.  For those of us who are getting up in age and enjoy international travel this advance is great.  I upgraded to a D810 just as the model was nearing the end of the cycle as there was a great discount from B&H.  Because of the investment in Nikon lenses over the years, it was difficult to rationalize switching to a non-Nikon mirrorless system (some of the older Nikon lenses purchased in the 1970-1980 time period continue work well on DSLR bodies once the tab is shaved off and one gets use to manual focusing which for landscape photography is just fine).  Were the Z cameras available a couple of years ago I would have purchased one but now it is a more difficult choice (it would be different if photography was a business and I could amortize it on my tax filing).

We will see how this plays out following the launch of the Z cameras and see what the sales actually are.  That is the bottom line for Nikon.

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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #695 on: August 25, 2018, 09:15:38 am »

Alan,

It is true that the P1 XF, supposedly the highest end camera in existence shooting super highend gigs all the time only has a single memory slot... but it is shot thetered a lot.

I agree that the odds an XQD cards goes wrong during a shoot is very low. But I would probably worry about that possibility.

I had to go through that using my H6D-100c for a year or so until they added back up capability in firmware, I experienced no issue, I ended up forgetting about it... most of the time. But I still far prefer to have 2 slots.

Cheers,
Bernard

32BT

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #696 on: August 25, 2018, 09:56:52 am »

I can't imagine either of the mirrorless options to be a main camera for event/wedding in the foreseeable future, but certainly as a backup/silent second unit, which renders the duocard issue more or less irrelevant.

They are good offerings for "amateurs" wanting a single camera, or pro's wanting to dabble with mirrorless as a second body (backup/silent/video).

All of the arguments against these offerings are based on the presumption (as stated) that the consumer makes an entirely logic decision void of emotion with complete information about past, present, and future, and we all know they never, ever do.


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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #697 on: August 25, 2018, 10:06:05 am »

At the end it is extremely simple, the key question is whether the ability (or not) of the Z7/Z6 to help create better images overweights its disadvantages, the only obvious one to me as of now is the lack of double memory slots.

The answer will differ for each of us.

The more I read about the camera, the more I feel that it might for me, but that's just my context.

Cheers,
Bernard

ErikKaffehr

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #698 on: August 25, 2018, 10:07:29 am »

Hi Bernard,

Your reasoning pretty well matches mine...

Best regards
Erik


Alan,

It is true that the P1 XF, supposedly the highest end camera in existence shooting super highend gigs all the time only has a single memory slot... but it is shot thetered a lot.

I agree that the odds an XQD cards goes wrong during a shoot is very low. But I would probably worry about that possibility.

I had to go through that using my H6D-100c for a year or so until they added back up capability in firmware, I experienced no issue, I ended up forgetting about it... most of the time. But I still far prefer to have 2 slots.

Cheers,
Bernard
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davidgp

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018
« Reply #699 on: August 25, 2018, 11:51:57 am »

I donít when they will be released, but I think we will get:
- z8 which is a a9mk II competitor high speed camera
- z9 which is a a9r competitor with 60+ megapixel

I would bet summer 2019 announcement.

Cheers,
Bernard

I will be quite surprised if after a year Nikon releases another set of cameras. If I was a Z user I will prefer them to concentrate in that aggressive lens roadmap...
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