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Author Topic: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018  (Read 63373 times)

Alex Waugh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #380 on: August 13, 2018, 06:12:17 PM »

To save a click - copied from nikonrumors.

Nikon Z6: high speed, low light model (24MP)
Nikon Z7: high-resolution model (45MP)
The new Nikon mirrorless lenses could be called Z-Nikkor.
There will be a Nikon Z-Noct-Nikkor 58mm f/0.95 lens! Fourth Z-mount lens and it will be announced after August 23rd.
Lenses should be 24-70mm f/4, 50mm f/1.8 and one more wide angle lens (24mm f/1.8 or 28mm f/1.8 or 35mm f/1.8).

Assuming I decide to bite after Photokina, I'd probably pickup the high res body + the fast wide with the 58mm to follow when funds allow.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #381 on: August 13, 2018, 07:47:15 PM »

Assuming I decide to bite after Photokina, I'd probably pickup the high res body + the fast wide with the 58mm to follow when funds allow.

I will personally probably wait for a thorough AF comparisons relative to Sony. AF will IMHO make or break this camera and is by far the single most important aspect (for stills for me).

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 08:36:33 PM by BernardLanguillier »
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Alex Waugh

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #382 on: August 13, 2018, 09:22:23 PM »

I will personally probably wait for a thorough AF comparisons relative to Sony. AF will IMHO make or break this camera and is by far the single most important aspect (for stills for me).

Cheers,
Bernard

By "after Photokina" I mean once everything has been released and tested. I should have been more specific.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 09:27:49 PM by Alex Waugh »
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #383 on: August 13, 2018, 09:54:35 PM »

By "after Photokina" I mean once everything has been released and tested. I should have been more specific.

Got it, thanks. :)

Cheers,
Bernard

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #384 on: August 13, 2018, 11:54:47 PM »

Is fanboyism an intrinsic preliminary condition irrelevant of (potentially still unconfirmed) reality?

For instance, am I/will I still be a Nikon fanboy if the Z6 ends up having the best (mirrorless) AF on the market? Do I become a skilled forecaster? Or is the fact that I mention the possibility - based on credible rumors and past track record - of a bright future for Nikon an unmistakable proof that I am a fanboy?

Would I be more of a fanboy if I trashed talked Sony (which I have never ever done - I love Sony and many of their products including their a7/a9 cameras even if I donít find them perfect)?

In other words, I am fully comfortable with being called a Nikon fan, but I would rather leave the boy part to those whose forecasts have been clouded by their own lack of objectivity (not talking about you).  ;D

Cheers,
Bernard

The accuracy of your predictions have nothing to do with being or not being a fan boy. Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #385 on: August 14, 2018, 12:18:24 AM »

I will personally probably wait for a thorough AF comparisons relative to Sony. AF will IMHO make or break this camera and is by far the single most important aspect.

Cheers,
Bernard

Agree.

The other issue is the lack of f/2.8 zooms at launch. These are the bread and butter for many categories of photographers. No matter how good the AF is, if the right lenses aren't available, people won't buy it. A 58/0.95 is no substitute - this is a lens of limited appeal, useful for artsy creative types doing street photography (although how much more useful than a f/1.4 lens of the same focal length is questionable) but absolutely useless for the vast majority of work.

No-one is going to buy existing F-mount lenses to use them on an adapter, in full knowledge that Z-mount equivalents are likely to come out in a few years time and that their lenses are likely to lose a lot of their value as Z-mount takes over and SLRs start to disappear. Those who don't already own them won't go out and buy them, but will either stay on the sidelines or go and buy the Sony system instead, where mirrorless f/2.8 zooms are already available.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #386 on: August 14, 2018, 01:01:20 AM »

The other issue is the lack of f/2.8 zooms at launch. These are the bread and butter for many categories of photographers. No matter how good the AF is, if the right lenses aren't available, people won't buy it. A 58/0.95 is no substitute - this is a lens of limited appeal, useful for artsy creative types doing street photography (although how much more useful than a f/1.4 lens of the same focal length is questionable) but absolutely useless for the vast majority of work.

No-one is going to buy existing F-mount lenses to use them on an adapter, in full knowledge that Z-mount equivalents are likely to come out in a few years time and that their lenses are likely to lose a lot of their value as Z-mount takes over and SLRs start to disappear. Those who don't already own them won't go out and buy them, but will either stay on the sidelines or go and buy the Sony system instead, where mirrorless f/2.8 zooms are already available.

Yes... I am wondering how Sony was able to sell a7/a7r as well as a7ii/a7rii bodies during the first 2.4 years of the system's existence before their added the 24-70 f2.8  and 70-200 f2.8 zooms... ;)

Could it be that you were among those that bought one of these during that period?  ;D

For the 24-70 f2.8, adapting the existing lens is certainly a valid option for existing Nikon pro users, looking into replacing their DSLR by a Z6/Z7, but my guess is that many will add first the z cameras to their existing line up to benefit from the smaller size. For these a 24-70 f4 is a reasonable solution. Besides, Nikon has been producing 24-70 f2.8 lenses of high quality for more than 10 years, it shouldn't be very hard for them to design one for the Z. It isn't like if a 24-70 f2.8 were an innovative lens in anyway.

My view is that there would be very little value in getting a dedicated 70-200 f2.8 for mirrorless, since the the Nikon is already the best zoom available and the size of the Sony is similar anyway.

If their marketing dpt learned something - but this is a major IF - they will probably release a lens roadmap together with the cameras. Do you think it would be smart for them to do so? Would you like to see such a roadmap as a potential Z camera buyer?

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 01:47:05 AM by BernardLanguillier »
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #387 on: August 14, 2018, 03:25:09 AM »

Yes... I am wondering how Sony was able to sell a7/a7r as well as a7ii/a7rii bodies during the first 2.4 years of the system's existence before their added the 24-70 f2.8  and 70-200 f2.8 zooms... ;)

Could it be that you were among those that bought one of these during that period?  ;D

1. Canon had a major weakness in sensors, not having one greater than 22MP and with a DR and pattern noise issue at base ISO. There was an opening for Sony to exploit this - those who care most about resolution and DR also often care the least about AF. This opening no longer exists for Nikon - anyone with a Canon lens collection who wanted a better sensor has already moved to Sony.

2. In 2013, there was no choice. If you wanted a full-frame mirrorless camera, it was Sony or nothing. Sony did not have f/2.8 zooms in a mirrorless format, but neither did anyone else. Today, it would be a choice between a more mature system with fast native zooms and primes, or a fledgling system with very little.

3. When the A7r was launched, Sony could use size as a selling point. Even if fast zooms and the typical pro lenses weren't available, the system had a significant size advantage over SLRs. Not an issue for many users, but a big selling point for a significant subset. Nikon can't use it as a selling point this time - Sony cameras are just as small, using the right lenses, and there are a whole lot more small Sony mirrorless lenses available than Nikon.

Essentially, Sony managed to get a flawed camera system into the marketplace by being first, then having a few years to tinker with it and expand the lens lineup, and due to Canon's weakness. Nikon doesn't have that luxury this time. As Nikon should well know from their DSLR experience, there is a huge benefit to being first. If you're not first, you have to be perfect - and that's the whole system, not just the camera.

Quote
For the 24-70 f2.8, adapting the existing lens is certainly a valid option for existing Nikon pro users, looking into replacing their DSLR by a Z6/Z7, but my guess is that many will add first the z cameras to their existing line up to benefit from the smaller size. For these a 24-70 f4 is a reasonable solution. Besides, Nikon has been producing 24-70 f2.8 lenses of high quality for more than 10 years, it shouldn't be very hard for them to design one for the Z. It isn't like if a 24-70 f2.8 were an innovative lens in anyway.

My view is that there would be very little value in getting a dedicated 70-200 f2.8 for mirrorless, since the the Nikon is already the best zoom available and the size of the Sony is similar anyway.

Doesn't help anyone not already invested in the Nikon system or entice anyone not already a Nikon user. No-one is going to buy an F-mount lens that doesn't fit Z-mount, for the express purpose of using it on an adapter. Not only would that mean buying into a system that's reaching its use-by date, with a lens likely to lose much of its value as F-mount loses support, but it also means giving up a good chunk of the lens' performance.

Even with a perfect adapter, containing an off-sensor PDAF system designed to drive legacy lenses, you'd lose a third of a stop of light and introduce reflections due to the transparent mirror. In reality, tolerances in the adapter and mount would introduce alignment errors that may be outside the capacity of microadjustment to compensate for, and, worse, may be slightly different every time you put on the lens. Without the mirror and off-sensor PDAF, you'd eliminate the light loss and alignment errors, but lose AF speed and accuracy in trying to drive a lens with motors not designed with mirrorless cameras in mind.

Quote
If their marketing dpt learned something - but this is a major IF - they will probably release a lens roadmap together with the cameras. Do you think it would be smart for them to do so? Would you like to see such a roadmap as a potential Z camera buyer?

Cheers,
Bernard

That would be the smartest thing they could possibly do. 'We don't have a 70-200/2.8 now, but we will have one in March 2020' is a lot more sellable than 'We don't have a 70-200/2.8 and Sony do, but you should buy our system anyway because, uh, we're Nikon and we've been making cameras for a hundred years and, uh, I guess that means we're just better...' But they need to stick to it - any delays or cancellations is just going to make people doubt their ability to fulfil their commitments. Also, they need to keep a close eye on what Canon and Sony do - there's no point in committing to bring out a particular lens in five years' time if Canon and Sony have it ready for release tomorrow.
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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #388 on: August 14, 2018, 03:46:57 AM »

All good points you make Shodowblade.

Regarding the idea of Nikon giving a roadmap reagarding future lenses and other system developements. That would be great. It would also be a change in marketing philosophy from Nikon. At the moment they seem to think secrecy and feeding the rumor mill is the way to go. It might drive the hype but itís not at all reassuring if you are planning a future in mirrorless cameras. Imagine you jump into Nikon and then no one makes lenses for the system other than Nikon because they so effectively close the lens mount to reverse engineering and then they take forever to roll out the lenses. You will be screwed. At this moment it is all going to be on faith and hope.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #389 on: August 14, 2018, 04:13:22 AM »

OMG... you are right, the Z system is doomed.  ;D

Nikon employees should just quit and go on a long vacation, secretely shooting with Sony cameras and those great super compact f2.8 zoom lenses offering zero value compared to their DSLR counterparts.

What if...
- The Nikon sensor were close to one stop better noisewise than the Sony one?
- Adapters were released that enabled the remaining Canon users to adapt their lenses on the Z with good performance?
- The Nikon AF mirrorless technology were able to drive natively F mount lenses without loss of performance?
- Nikon did come up with native f2.8 zooms within 6 months?
- ...

There is a long list of possible positive options that would mitigate the lack of f2.8 zooms at launch. I don't understand why you don't give these more weight in your thinking process?

Cheers,
Bernard

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #390 on: August 14, 2018, 04:26:24 AM »

Calm down Bernard. No one is saying itís doomed. People are just pointing out the pitfalls and thinking about some of the issues. Itís interesting.

Itís also obvious that Sony owners will be commenting here. They are after all the biggest group with experience using mirrorless cameras. As a Sony user I admit to being intrigued by what Nikon will offer. Iím also curious about how they plan on overcoming the challenges inherent to offering a new system.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #391 on: August 14, 2018, 04:54:20 AM »

Calm down Bernard. No one is saying itís doomed. People are just pointing out the pitfalls and thinking about some of the issues. Itís interesting.

No worries, I am very amused by all this.  :)

But our friend Shadowblade is pretty much saying it is doomed, or at least it clearly feels like he hopes it is.  ;D

Cheers,
Bernard

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #392 on: August 14, 2018, 04:57:21 AM »

Well as I said before. I hope Nikon knock it out the park. I will be upgrading my FF Sony I. About a year and the better Nikon do the better my new Sony will be.
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #393 on: August 14, 2018, 05:06:45 AM »

OMG... you are right, the Z system is doomed.  ;D

Nikon employees should just quit and go on a long vacation, secretely shooting with Sony cameras and those great super compact f2.8 zoom lenses offering zero value compared to their DSLR counterparts.

When did I say anything about 'super compact' f/2.8 lenses?

Sony has compact lenses if you want them. They also have f/2.8 zooms if you want them. Not both in the same lens.

At launch, Z-mount will have neither. No fast zooms, and only three lenses to choose from, all of whose bases Sony already cover and more. They're pushing into a crowded map, not empty space.

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What if...
- The Nikon sensor were close to one stop better noisewise than the Sony one?

Except that they're not. We have recent sensors to compare - D850 and A7r3 (and the A7r3 is already a last-generation design, being the same as the A7r2 sensor, but with better supporting hardware). What makes you think Nikon has suddenly come up with a next-generation super-sensor that Sony can't match, while somehow still managing to manufacture that same sensor for Nikon?

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- Adapters were released that enabled the remaining Canon users to adapt their lenses on the Z with good performance?

The same adapters already exist for Sony bodies. Most people who intend to switch and bring their lenses across have already switched. The rest are sticking with Canon SLRs and will only switch when they have to (when Canon ditches EF mount and goes mirrorless - provided they even ditch EF mount). The thing is, that doesn't mean they have to switch to Nikon - Canon, Nikon and Sony mirrorless systems would all be valid options, similarly-performing adapters would be available for all, but only Sony currently has a comprehensive list of native lenses.

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- The Nikon AF mirrorless technology were able to drive natively F mount lenses without loss of performance?

You may as well ask for magic - this is an engineering impossibility.

SLR lenses have motors designed for single, large movements, not continuous, small, rapid movements. They can't take advantage of all the focus tools used by mirrorless bodies, which combine PDAF, CDAF and AI-based pattern recognition techniques at the same time. To focus the lenses as if they were on an SLR, you'd need an adapter with its own off-sensor AF system - essentially a pellicle mirror, similar to Sony's A99II. But putting this mirror in the light path costs you about a third of a stop of light and introduces reflections. So, you gain AF performance, but lose optical performance. If you don't have a separate AF system, you're then back to using the camera to drive the lens in a way it wasn't designed for, in which case you can't expect performance any better than Metabones or Sigma adapters connecting Canon/Sigma lenses to current Sony cameras.

In addition, adapters introduce tolerances which aren't there with a native lens. Due to slight movement in the system ('no movement' doesn't exist unless you weld them together), these may be slightly different each time you attach the lens. On-sensor focus systems can negate these, since they focus using the imaging sensor, but off-sensor focus systems require microadjustment, and it's hard to adjust for something when the required value is slightly different every time you attach the lens.

Finally, how much is this super-adapter going to cost? Not only do you have the body of an adapter and basic electronics - expensive enough as they are - but now you've also added a fragile and expensive pellicle mirror, more supporting electronics and an AF system that's, at minimum, the equivalent of the D850 or D500, if not the D5 (there would be little point in using it if it weren't to match the performance of those cameras). Now you've got an adapter which probably costs half as much as a high-end camera - all to attach a bunch of what would then be legacy lenses to the new system and achieve performance inferior to what you could achieve by attaching those same lenses to a D850 or D5 in the first place.

It would probably work out a lot better if Nikon gave away these adapters for free with the new cameras, as Sony did with Metabones adapters for the first few years, but, due to the complexity and cost of these adapters and Nikon's smaller size and near-complete dependence on the still camera market, it would be a much more expensive proposition for them to do so.

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- Nikon did come up with native f2.8 zooms within 6 months?

If these were coming, they'd have announced them. F/2.8 lenses are the bread and butter a large chunk of working photographers - wedding shooters, event shooters, photojournalists, etc. If they were coming any time soon, Nikon would want potential buyers to know about them.

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There is a long list of possible positive options that would mitigate the lack of f2.8 zooms at launch. I don't understand why you don't give these more weight in your thinking process?

Because most of them are either very unlikely or technically impossible.
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #394 on: August 14, 2018, 05:14:23 AM »

But our friend Shadowblade is pretty much saying it is doomed, or at least it clearly feels like he hopes it is.  ;D

I'm an investor. Sentimentality doesn't make for a good investment choice.

Sony got a three-lap head start in the mirrorless race. Canon and Nikon are starting the race at around the same time, but Canon has a lot more horsepower, a better-equipped pit crew, experience building cars for races in two other categories, and, even if they lose this one, have cars in other races for backup. Nikon has one car, in one race, with less resources than the other teams.

This isn't Cool Runnings or Dodgeball. I wouldn't be betting on Nikon.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 05:32:48 AM by shadowblade »
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32BT

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #395 on: August 14, 2018, 06:09:38 AM »

I'm an investor. Sentimentality doesn't make for a good investment choice.

Sony got a three-lap head start in the mirrorless race. Canon and Nikon are starting the race at around the same time, but Canon has a lot more horsepower, a better-equipped pit crew, experience building cars for races in two other categories, and, even if they lose this one, have cars in other races for backup. Nikon has one car, in one race, with less resources than the other teams.

This isn't Cool Runnings or Dodgeball. I wouldn't be betting on Nikon.

That's like saying you wouldn't bet on Ferrari because they only do F1, and by the same token people must be bonkers "investing" in Fuji.




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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #396 on: August 14, 2018, 06:24:36 AM »

That's like saying you wouldn't bet on Ferrari because they only do F1, and by the same token people must be bonkers "investing" in Fuji.

No, it's saying that you wouldn't bet on a racing team because one of their competitors got a head start in the race (Sony) and the other (Canon) is three times the size, with a more powerful engine (way bigger R&D budget) and more experience building cars (they've been putting mirrorless-related technologies in their still and video cameras for years). Not to say they can't score a few wins here and there, particularly if they stick to niche areas (like Leica) - just that they won't be able to keep up in the long run, unless one or both of the others does something really stupid.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #397 on: August 14, 2018, 07:17:02 AM »

No, it's saying that you wouldn't bet on a racing team because one of their competitors got a head start in the race (Sony) and the other (Canon) is three times the size, with a more powerful engine (way bigger R&D budget) and more experience building cars (they've been putting mirrorless-related technologies in their still and video cameras for years). Not to say they can't score a few wins here and there, particularly if they stick to niche areas (like Leica) - just that they won't be able to keep up in the long run, unless one or both of the others does something really stupid.

One question you have never answered... how has Canon's large resources helped them help their photographers these past years? As an investor, do you just based your beliefs on theory or do you also look at facts?

How do you explain the fact that the D850 is clearly superior to the 5DMKIV/5DR, like the D810 was clearly superior to the 5DMKIII?

Or... do you disagree with this assessment?

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 08:05:56 AM by BernardLanguillier »
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shadowblade

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #398 on: August 14, 2018, 08:09:57 AM »

One question you have never answered... how has Canon's large resources helped them help their photographers these past years? As an investor, do you just based your beliefs on theory or do you also look at facts?

Canon doesn't exist to please photographers. It exists to make money for shareholders. And it's done a far better job of it than Nikon these past ten or so years.

A strong company is in a much better position to put more resources into R&D and develop stronger products in the future, further increasing their strength versus the competition. A weaker company, with fewer resources, may win some battles - even a string of them - but, ultimately, can't out-develop a stronger, better-resourced one, assuming that one party isn't completely incompetent. Corporate and military history attests to this (including the history of incompetent leadership squandering a position of strength to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - see Kodak for an example).

Canon has released very little high-end photo gear these last few years. But they've developed a lot of technologies that will serve them well in mirrorless cameras to come - dual pixel AF, EVFs, lens motors and focusing systems, diffraction optics, processors, higher-resolution sensors, etc. These have shown up piecemeal in various Canon products - video cameras, mirrorless crop cameras, lenses, even non-photographic products - but, so far, they haven't been all put together into a single product (full-frame mirrorless system), likely because other key technologies weren't ready yet. They've been coasting along on their large market share through the end of the SLR era, while ploughing their resources into developing technologies needed for the next, mirrorless era. And now, with that era beginning, they have a lot of patents, prototypes and more mature technologies (dual pixel AF first and foremost) that will allow them to hit the ground running.

Meanwhile, Nikon's been busy perfecting the ultimate horse and cart, expending their resources developing technologies that let them release better products in the present, but which don't help them much with mirrorless cameras. They needed to do this - without all the advances Nikon made which allowed them to pull ahead quality-wise after Canon started giving up on SLR (probably after the 5D2 or 7D), Nikon, which was already behind at the time, would have fallen way behind already. But now, with SLRs reaching their end, they're having to start from scratch with mirrorless, on even ground with Canon and Sony, and likely lack the resources to do this at the same speed.

Basically, Canon and Sony can afford to make missteps and chase dead ends - they have the resources to do that. Nikon needs to make and execute their plans perfectly. There's just much less of a margin for error on their part.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikonís new mirrorless system, coming in early 2019
« Reply #399 on: August 14, 2018, 08:16:14 AM »

Color me un-impressed... but we will see.

I hope you are right. I would love to see an amazing mirrorless camera from Canon, but I haven't been impressed since the 1Ds. And I am looking at this as a potential customers of theirs, a photographer.

If you are right that they would't work for me but their share holders instead, then I am not sure I would invest in their system moving forward.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 08:25:46 AM by BernardLanguillier »
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