Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[Alan Klein]

I could not care less whether China are lying or not. Even with their official numbers, it is possible to study the spreading rate of the virus, and what are the efficient manners of containing it, plus how long the thing will most likely last.

The only case I know of "bad supplies" was a lot of 30,000 tests that the spanish gov. bought from a chinese company - who was not certified, something that would have been easy to check, had the spanish gov. carried out due diligence.

Trump was right that we have hurt ourselves by contracting out all our manufacturing to China.   We're now all paying the penalty for turning our factories over to them.   That's something he's complained about for 4 years and before.  Yet, all the naysayers, media, and his political opponents were the ones who laughed at him claiming he's hurting our economy.  So now it's shown he was right with the tariffs all along. 

[John Camp]

A few thoughts.

1. I do believe the Chinese are lying about their death toll -- it simply came down too quickly. A death curve is a curve. It doesn't go up and then disappear, it goes up and then comes back down, with lots of new people being infected on the way down. The Chinese seem to be reporting that the virus simply evaporated. So, I think they are lying. Trump tried to lie (15 and will soon be zero) but we have a free press and they pointed out that he was full of shit. The Chinese press can't really do that. The problem all governments face is that people tend to blame the current administration (of whatever country) for events that they really can't control. If a meteor hit Arkansas, Trump would get blamed. The same is true in China, but in China, the government has much more ability to quash public reporting and control statistics to make itself look good.

2. Comparisons to flu are irrelevant in most ways. With flu, which can certainly kill lots of people, those deaths are largely unpreventable after the flu strikes. Hospitals have enough space and ventilators to treat the flu, and health workers generally get flu shots and so aren't endangered by it. With Covid 19, we're facing the problem of what you might call *excess* deaths -- deaths that would have been preventable if we had a vaccine, and if we had hospital facilities capable of dealing with the influx of patients. Also, Covid-19 engenders panic, because there is no Tami-Flu treatment, and there is no vaccine that rational people can get for themselves to prevent the flu.So, it's fundamentally different than flu, both in it's medical and social aspects.

3. Trump has made a major mistake by continuing his press conferences (in my opinion.) He is currently getting a small boost in polling numbers, but the election is not here yet. Here is what's going to happen: all of his many mis-statements and on-screen blunders are being happily compiled by Dem political managers, and this fall, with maybe 100,000-200,000 dead, they will be played relentlessly. An opinion column from somebody that I read in the past couple of days said that Trump really lives for ratings numbers, going back to his days as a TV show host. He loves this short-term boost, so he keeps jumping in front of the cameras; IMHO, he will live to regret it.

4. Americans will show some serious shock when the deaths climb past 1,000 a day, and it's getting close to that now.   

[chez]

Trump was right that we have hurt ourselves by contracting out all our manufacturing to China.   We're now all paying the penalty for turning our factories over to them.   That's something he's complained about for 4 years and before.  Yet, all the naysayers, media, and his political opponents were the ones who laughed at him claiming he's hurting our economy.  So now it's shown he was right with the tariffs all along.

Come on man it's consumers like you that want cheap goods from China. You line up at the Wallmarts of the world buying them in droves. Do you think for one second America can make those goods at a price the 99% of citizens can afford?

[faberryman]

Trump was right that we have hurt ourselves by contracting out all our manufacturing to China.   We're now all paying the penalty for turning our factories over to them.   That's something he's complained about for 4 years and before.  Yet, all the naysayers, media, and his political opponents were the ones who laughed at him claiming he's hurting our economy.  So now it's shown he was right with the tariffs all along.

I thought Trump said that it was the hospitals' fault that they didn't have enough PPE and ventilators. I am not sure you can blame the Chinese for the hospitals not buying enough stuff.

[JoeKitchen]

Can you perhaps try, just try, to keep at least slightly on point?

Jeremy

My bad. 

[Alan Klein]

A few thoughts.

1. I do believe the Chinese are lying about their death toll -- it simply came down too quickly. A death curve is a curve. It doesn't go up and then disappear, it goes up and then comes back down, with lots of new people being infected on the way down. The Chinese seem to be reporting that the virus simply evaporated. So, I think they are lying. Trump tried to lie (15 and will soon be zero) but we have a free press and they pointed out that he was full of shit. The Chinese press can't really do that. The problem all governments face is that people tend to blame the current administration (of whatever country) for events that they really can't control. If a meteor hit Arkansas, Trump would get blamed. The same is true in China, but in China, the government has much more ability to quash public reporting and control statistics to make itself look good.

2. Comparisons to flu are irrelevant in most ways. With flu, which can certainly kill lots of people, those deaths are largely unpreventable after the flu strikes. Hospitals have enough space and ventilators to treat the flu, and health workers generally get flu shots and so aren't endangered by it. With Covid 19, we're facing the problem of what you might call *excess* deaths -- deaths that would have been preventable if we had a vaccine, and if we had hospital facilities capable of dealing with the influx of patients. Also, Covid-19 engenders panic, because there is no Tami-Flu treatment, and there is no vaccine that rational people can get for themselves to prevent the flu.So, it's fundamentally different than flu, both in it's medical and social aspects.

3. Trump has made a major mistake by continuing his press conferences (in my opinion.) He is currently getting a small boost in polling numbers, but the election is not here yet. Here is what's going to happen: all of his many mis-statements and on-screen blunders are being happily compiled by Dem political managers, and this fall, with maybe 100,000-200,000 dead, they will be played relentlessly. An opinion column from somebody that I read in the past couple of days said that Trump really lives for ratings numbers, going back to his days as a TV show host. He loves this short-term boost, so he keeps jumping in front of the cameras; IMHO, he will live to regret it.

4. Americans will show some serious shock when the deaths climb past 1,000 a day, and it's getting close to that now.   

Of course flu is different in many ways.  But the point I was making is that no one blinks about the flu even though tens of millions get infected every year and 100,000 died in a two year period.  Life went on.  No social isolation.  No shut down of the economy.  I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing what we're doing.  It does seem like it's helping a lot.  It's just that we shouldn't lose sight that viruses are with us every year.  I have a feeling that if this happens next year, we will handle it in different ways but not as extreme.  I could be wrong, but I hope and most people should hope I'm right.  The country can't stand another bout of this next year medically or economically.

[Alan Klein]

I thought Trump said that it was the hospitals' fault that they didn't have enough PPE and ventilators. I am not sure you can blame the Chinese for the hospitals not buying enough stuff.

It's true that hospital and local, governments should have bought more ventilators and not blame Trump.  But to my point, had we had factories making these things, we would have been in a better position to produce them for ourselves working double time.  Now we're dependent on China.  We may see Congress institute laws that require certain products be produced in America just like much military hardware is already produced in America.  Things like ventilators and medicine.  It's crazy that China produces 90% of our medicine.  Even if just a portion, let's say 25%, is produced here would go a long way in emergencies. 

[Alan Klein]

A few thoughts.

1. I do believe the Chinese are lying about their death toll -- it simply came down too quickly. A death curve is a curve. It doesn't go up and then disappear, it goes up and then comes back down, with lots of new people being infected on the way down. The Chinese seem to be reporting that the virus simply evaporated. So, I think they are lying. Trump tried to lie (15 and will soon be zero) but we have a free press and they pointed out that he was full of shit. The Chinese press can't really do that. The problem all governments face is that people tend to blame the current administration (of whatever country) for events that they really can't control. If a meteor hit Arkansas, Trump would get blamed. The same is true in China, but in China, the government has much more ability to quash public reporting and control statistics to make itself look good.

2. Comparisons to flu are irrelevant in most ways. With flu, which can certainly kill lots of people, those deaths are largely unpreventable after the flu strikes. Hospitals have enough space and ventilators to treat the flu, and health workers generally get flu shots and so aren't endangered by it. With Covid 19, we're facing the problem of what you might call *excess* deaths -- deaths that would have been preventable if we had a vaccine, and if we had hospital facilities capable of dealing with the influx of patients. Also, Covid-19 engenders panic, because there is no Tami-Flu treatment, and there is no vaccine that rational people can get for themselves to prevent the flu.So, it's fundamentally different than flu, both in it's medical and social aspects.

3. Trump has made a major mistake by continuing his press conferences (in my opinion.) He is currently getting a small boost in polling numbers, but the election is not here yet. Here is what's going to happen: all of his many mis-statements and on-screen blunders are being happily compiled by Dem political managers, and this fall, with maybe 100,000-200,000 dead, they will be played relentlessly. An opinion column from somebody that I read in the past couple of days said that Trump really lives for ratings numbers, going back to his days as a TV show host. He loves this short-term boost, so he keeps jumping in front of the cameras; IMHO, he will live to regret it.

4. Americans will show some serious shock when the deaths climb past 1,000 a day, and it's getting close to that now.   

Regarding item 3, you seem to be taking the position of all the anti-Trump media.  Of course they don't want him doing these daily news conferences.  His likeability polls are at his highest. In the end, if the disease is gone and the economy is on its way to healing too, the voters will give him credit.  All the accusations against him will be passed off as political pablum.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Come on John. Don't let the facts get in the way of the narrative.

Why don't you try the same?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[John Camp]

Regarding item 3, you seem to be taking the position of all the anti-Trump media.  Of course they don't want him doing these daily news conferences.  His likeability polls are at his highest. In the end, if the disease is gone and the economy is on its way to healing too, the voters will give him credit.  All the accusations against him will be passed off as political pablum.

I don't disagree with what you say. What I am saying is that he's said so many stupid, short-sighted things during these press conferences, that the Dems are building up a pretty incredible cache of ammo to use if it winds up that we do have 100,000 or 200,000 dead. Trump's biggest problem is that he can't keep his mouth shut. The column I read said that Trump needs these short-term feel-good boosts, and always has...but what is working now, when we only have a few thousand dead, might not work so well when we have 200,000 dead. If it turns out that doesn't happens, if the Covid virus goes away like a bad dream, and everything is booming again in November, I suspect he'll have a decent chance of reelection, because then his many stupidities won't play so well. But if the virus is still here, and worse, he's toast.

[JoeKitchen]

I don't disagree with what you say. What I am saying is that he's said so many stupid, short-sighted things during these press conferences, that the Dems are building up a pretty incredible cache of ammo to use if it winds up that we do have 100,000 or 200,000 dead. Trump's biggest problem is that he can't keep his mouth shut. The column I read said that Trump needs these short-term feel-good boosts, and always has...but what is working now, when we only have a few thousand dead, might not work so well when we have 200,000 dead. If it turns out that doesn't happens, if the Covid virus goes away like a bad dream, and everything is booming again in November, I suspect he'll have a decent chance of reelection, because then his many stupidities won't play so well. But if the virus is still here, and worse, he's toast.

Yet Joe Biden saying we did not need to close the border and that doing so was xenophobic wont have any effect on him?

LOL. 

This whole thing is a Cath-22 politically for both sides.  If either side decides to go down the negative and start mud slinging, the other will have more then enough to do equal damage.  It will all just break even with the voters. 

[faberryman]

It's true that hospital and local, governments should have bought more ventilators and not blame Trump.

Hospitals and state and local governments were not blaming Trump for anything other than not quickly releasing equipment and supplies available for just this purpose in the Strategic National Reserve. Apparently, they were not appreciative enough. Fortunately, hospitals and state and local officials have realized they have to kiss Trump's ass, are now doing so, and some of the equipment and supplies has been released. They say some of the patients in ICUs said they too would kiss Trump's ass in exchange for a ventilator. Unfortunately, they died before they got a chance to do so.

[John Camp]

Alan said "The number of deaths for 2017-2018 were 61,000, higher than my 50,000 reference number.  I was using 50,000 as an average estimate.The point is the covid number hasn't yet gotten anywhere near that close.  You're the one using facts to get in the way of the truth rather than looking at them honestly.

CDC Estimate: 45 Million Flu Cases, 61,000 Flu-Associated Deaths in 2017-2018 U.S. Flu Season
https://cnsnews.com/article/international/michael-w-chapman/cdc-estimate-45-million-flu-cases-61000-flu-associated"

Slobodan said:

"Why don't you try the same?" And posted a cut from this page: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
The page cut showed the same 61,000 deaths references by Alan.

Alan and Slobbodan are cherry picking, in response to a post I made pointing out that the numbers of deaths from flu, LAST YEAR, were estimated at 32,400.

In Alan's original post, he said there were 50,000 deaths LAST YEAR. There weren't. There were an estimated 32,400.

There were, as he indicated in his second post, in reply to mine, 61000 the year before that, but I didn't look at the year before that, because he said LAST YEAR.

Slobodan then followed up with a screen shot highlighting the 61,000 deaths in 2017-18, which is, in fact, the CDC estimate for that year, but not LAST YEAR.

As is happens, the 61,000 number for 2017-18 is the highest number of deaths in the last ten. (We don't yet know the number of this year, but this year's flu has been regarded as reasonably mild.)

The numbers from the CDC site: 2010-11, 37000; 2011-12, 12000; 2012-13, 43000; 2013-14, 38000; 2014-15, 51,000, 2015-16, 23000; 2016-17, 38000; 2017-18, 61000; 2018-19, 34157.

For that period of time, the average deaths per year from flu, even including that outlier of 61,000 deaths, is a bit more than 37,000 deaths. Alan said he was just using 50,000 as a sort of average, which it isn't.

I don't mind the cherry-picking so much, because this thread is rife with it, but I somewhat resented Alan's comment that, "You're the one using facts to get in the way of the truth rather than looking at them honestly."

If you just don't like numbers, say so, but don't make up fake news based on cherry-picking.
 

[chez]

Yet Joe Biden saying we did not need to close the border and that doing so was xenophobic wont have any effect on him?

Who in the hell would want to cross the border into the US these days?

[JoeKitchen]

Who in the hell would want to cross the border into the US these days?

Yawn. 

[chez]

Yawn.

Exactly...I believe the rats are even fleeing the York.

[JoeKitchen]

Exactly...I believe the rats are even fleeing the York.

There's enough of them.  Let them live in the country for a few months and they should be quite tasty. 

[elliot_n]

How was it imported into the US? Italy?

[MattBurt]

My sister-in-law just sent her Italian exchange student home early. They went back and forth on how to react but in the end her parents in Italy were afraid for her safety in the USA.

[MattBurt]

I have two local friends who were flown to the ICU in Grand Junction and it's not looking very good for either of them.