Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[MattBurt]

Distrust of science is at an all time high under this admin but it still remains the way to find the best answer. The results are not always correct but it's a process designed so that when better information comes along (and is supported by evidence) then that replaces the previous best answer. If there was a better way, that would be science.

So I trust the (relevant) scientists who generally are in agreement on what the best course of action is (which does evolve as new information comes along). There may be outliers as there is with other fields like climate science but the vast majority agree distancing is the way to not kill off a lot of our population. The data backs this up.

[JoeKitchen]

Distrust of science is at an all time high under this admin but it still remains the way to find the best answer. The results are not always correct but it's a process designed so that when better information comes along (and is supported by evidence) then that replaces the previous best answer. If there was a better way, that would be science.

So I trust the (relevant) scientists who generally are in agreement on what the best course of action is (which does evolve as new information comes along). There may be outliers as there is with other fields like climate science but the vast majority agree distancing is the way to not kill off a lot of our population. The data backs this up.

As of now we know two things.  People will die and more if we go out. That’s it.  We don’t know how many more, whether it’s 50k or 5M more.  This will work for the time being, but in a month when real economic damages happens it won’t.  They better come up with answers real fast or no one will give a damn. 

I know people right now looking at going out of business. 

With recent reports from Iceland and Vo, Italy showing over half of those with it don’t have symptoms, there will be a point when most care about their families’ well being over the unlucky few who are vulnerable, and that will happen fast.  Look at Southern Italy. 

[Craig Lamson]

At what?  Look at his employee turnover.   Does he suck at hiring, or is he atrocious at retention?  Maybe both, but one has to be true. 

Fewer every week, seemingly.  Replaced by toadies that he "trusts" because they soft-pedal his ego.

Because as best I can tell, your philosophy is that breaking government equals "doing a good job" because that means it gets out of the way.  That's cool and all, and there are, believe it or not, some cases where I would agree with you.  That's all fine and good and fun when we shoot the bull about taxes, political correctness and the government's role in directing social policy.  It's a little less fine when you need expert-level coordinated response for an honest-to-God emergency.

This is the great unknown, right?  As I said, to this point, whatever our disagreement may be on policy, it's undeniable that Trump has either done a poor job recruiting talent, or a poor job retaining talent because of his ego.  Both are signs of a poor manager.  This has been the crux of my issues with Trump from the start.  I mean, sure, his social policy is retrograde, reactionary, and plays to the lowest common denominator, but fundamentally he is just a piss-poor manager of people and bad at looking at divergent points view.  He thinks he already knows everything. And that's a bad guy to have in charge of the world's biggest organization, where literal lives depend on his competency. Does it even matter?  Almost everyone that leaves the administration claims that he doesn't listen, doesn't learn, and has no interest in information that disputes his preconceived notions, and those that don't say that are still angling for, or part of, the entourage.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if he rises above that now.



Good luck to us.

I was talking about Kushner, not Trump, which was the topic of our exchange iirc.  As it relates to Kushner and trying to source things quickly and efficiently, yes , breaking the government is a superb thing. A a general rule, at least in my book, entrenched government is a failure, and it has been for years. 

So, I’ll refer you to my original post asking abut Kushner.

[Craig Lamson]

Craig,

You are a smart person, why the urge to deny the obvious?

On the one hand you guys are telling us we should ignore Trump’s words and watch his actions? When we do this we see a president who did everything he could to delay actions to save his economy. With the obvious result of many un’eeded additional casualties and more impact to the economy. Those 2+ weeks were disastrous for lack of a better word.

If we ignore your advice and hear what Trump is saying then we listen to a president who didn’t deny the pandemic... but denied way too long (at least 2 weeks) it was a real threat and one whose resolution should take immediate precedence over the economy. Which should have meant immediate wide spread confinement.

Let me guess why you keep denying the obvious... because you know I am right but admitting to this would also be admitting that you were possibly wrong also on all the other things we hzve disagreed on these past months?

That’s not how I look at it.

I see a WW pandemic with complex interactions, I see one global planet and when the leader of a large and powerful country messes up lile Trump has on this corona pandemic, it impacts everyone. You, Joe, me,... so I don’t feel hatred for Trump, I am judging his performance on the biggest crisis he has had to face and it’s abysmal both in absolute terms and when compared to other leaders of large countries. Abysmal in his actions and words.

Cheers,
Bernard

You really don’t pay attention do you Bernard?  Trump has allowed his science staff pretty much free reign since day one to tell their story to the American people and the world.  Did you somehow miss that because you were so fixated on Trump hatred? 

So those so called “ lost two weeks”.  Were warnings not issued about how the crisis might unfold, at Trump press conferences, and in press availability with both him, his staff and and his science guys? Did Trump try to get the CDC to  fix the testing debacle during this time frame?  Did the Administration issue warnings, etc to people here and abroad?   The fact of the matter is his administration was working quite heard during those “ lost two weeks”.

Aside from closing the country down, which he really can’t do anyway, exactly what else do you think he missed?  Let’s get real.  He could not have issued a confinement order,  the best he could do is suggest.  In any case as we have seen, this is the  choice of the individual States, and if you have a problem with those “lost two weeks”, take it up with them.  The fact of the matter is that none of them closed their States because the people would have gone nuts at that point and the Governor’s knew that.  Heck even after closing their states most can’t get great compliance. 

Your problem Bernard is you don’t know what you think you know. You are not even close to right...again.  You don’t know how our government works.  You have now shown that more than once.  No, I don’t “ know” you are right, because you are totally wrong.

[BernardLanguillier]

Aside from closing the country down, which he really can’t do anyway, exactly what else do you think he missed?  Let’s get real.  He could not have issued a confinement order,  the best he could do is suggest.

Yes. Exactly.

It’s not “the best he could do”. It’s what he should have done at least two weeks earlier.

And this one point is of huge importance. It’s everything.

That’s what a president must do in such circumstances. And not doing it is a mistake of historical proportions.

Most leaders in Europe share the view that this crisis is the most critical since WWII.

And since you claim to know that much better the way the US works you cannot not know that the president has a huge range to options to both influence and drive what people think and what states do.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Alan Klein]

 

I would keep it locked down a little bit longer.
I like the light road traffic and even grocery shopping. My local food store is clean, quiet, well stocked, hardly any people, pleasure to shop.
However, the skating rink and swimming pool are closed and there are no dances.

My wife and I are practicing social distancing.  We haven't spoken to one another for three days. 

[BobShaw]

Aside from closing the country down, which he really can’t do anyway, exactly what else do you think he missed?  Let’s get real.  He could not have issued a confinement order,  the best he could do is suggest.   

....You don’t know how our government works.

Well clearly it doesn't.
In New Zealand they locked down early and it worked well, at least for a while. The Prime Minister can do that because there are no states, so she is pretty well in charge.

Here in Australia the Prime Minister has to contend with 6 states and two main territories, so that means 8 leaders, 8 police forces, 8 Health departments etc. A juggling act but now it's coming together. Most states are locked down to some extent and many have closed borders. 16% of GDP or similar has been basically given to keep people in jobs, even if they aren't actually working.

As for incoming travellers at airports, well unless you live within 20 minutes of home you are bussed to a hotel in the city you arrive at and you stay there for 14 days in the room, checked by army and police.

I have no idea how the US will hope to control 50 states and leaders the probably over 400 law agencies, health departments and so on. A third of new cases globally are now in the US, so I hope you have plenty of body bags.

[JoeKitchen]

I am not going to lie, I am finding great ironic humor in the new way this website is choosing to place ads.  What do you think Bernard? 

[BernardLanguillier]

I am not going to lie, I am finding great ironic humor in the new way this website is choosing to place ads.  What do you think Bernard?

Lol

Cheers,
Bernard

[Alan Klein]

At what?  Look at his employee turnover.   Does he suck at hiring, or is he atrocious at retention?  Maybe both, but one has to be true. 

Fewer every week, seemingly.  Replaced by toadies that he "trusts" because they soft-pedal his ego.

Because as best I can tell, your philosophy is that breaking government equals "doing a good job" because that means it gets out of the way.  That's cool and all, and there are, believe it or not, some cases where I would agree with you.  That's all fine and good and fun when we shoot the bull about taxes, political correctness and the government's role in directing social policy.  It's a little less fine when you need expert-level coordinated response for an honest-to-God emergency.

This is the great unknown, right?  As I said, to this point, whatever our disagreement may be on policy, it's undeniable that Trump has either done a poor job recruiting talent, or a poor job retaining talent because of his ego.  Both are signs of a poor manager.  This has been the crux of my issues with Trump from the start.  I mean, sure, his social policy is retrograde, reactionary, and plays to the lowest common denominator, but fundamentally he is just a piss-poor manager of people and bad at looking at divergent points view.  He thinks he already knows everything. And that's a bad guy to have in charge of the world's biggest organization, where literal lives depend on his competency. Does it even matter?  Almost everyone that leaves the administration claims that he doesn't listen, doesn't learn, and has no interest in information that disputes his preconceived notions, and those that don't say that are still angling for, or part of, the entourage.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if he rises above that now.



Good luck to us. 

You talk of management style not being acceptable.  To who?  He's president.  He reports to no one except the people.  He demands loyalty and excellence.  If you fail at either, you're out.  No second chances.  No getting a break for past performance or being nice to his kids.  That's how he operates. It's his way or the highway.   If they don't like it, they shouldn't take the job.  If they haven't figured that out yet, than their not smart enough to work for him. 

Only his enemies care who he hires and who he fires and how he runs the office.  All the public cares about are results.  The public sees a president every day on stage who is in command.  He's sticking his neck out being up there.  No one else will get the credit or the blame if he fails.  He knows that.  That's why he's taking charge so publicly.  For the election.  If he succeeds, he'll be re-elected.  If he fails, he won't be.  It's that simple.  The rest is conversation.

[James Clark]

So, I’ll refer you to my original post asking abut Kushner.

Kushner is a nobody, distinguished only by his criminal, but rich, father, and the woman he married.  Kushner is relevant only because his wife's daddy selected him to do an important job.  And his wife's daddy has an unfortunate tendency to fire people better than him in favor of yes-men. 

[Craig Lamson]

Kushner is a nobody, distinguished only by his criminal, but rich, father, and the woman he married.  Kushner is relevant only because his wife's daddy selected him to do an important job.  And his wife's daddy has an unfortunate tendency to fire people better than him in favor of yes-men.

James why not answer my questions about Kushner?  Is he failing? If he’s not and he’s doing a good job, as it appears he is, what the problem? 

[Craig Lamson]

Well clearly it doesn't.
In New Zealand they locked down early and it worked well, at least for a while. The Prime Minister can do that because there are no states, so she is pretty well in charge.

Here in Australia the Prime Minister has to contend with 6 states and two main territories, so that means 8 leaders, 8 police forces, 8 Health departments etc. A juggling act but now it's coming together. Most states are locked down to some extent and many have closed borders. 16% of GDP or similar has been basically given to keep people in jobs, even if they aren't actually working.

As for incoming travellers at airports, well unless you live within 20 minutes of home you are bussed to a hotel in the city you arrive at and you stay there for 14 days in the room, checked by army and police.

I have no idea how the US will hope to control 50 states and leaders the probably over 400 law agencies, health departments and so on. A third of new cases globally are now in the US, so I hope you have plenty of body bags.

That’s the point, the Federal Gov. does not control the states.  And I don’t think there is a hoots chance anyone is going to  make Trump king.  This is what we have warts and all.  We live and die with it, quite literally. 

Now, again we are talking about 3 million travelers, in a country where there are limited means to confine people legally.  . Those are the facts of life here.  Is this that really so hard to understand?

[armand]

You don't get it either. The point is she came out against it because Trump was for it.  Nothing else mattered.  The reason was an excuse.  The anti-Trumpers reject anything and everything Trump says.  It's a knee jerk reaction.  Even if what he says makes sense, they're blinded by hatred and will find a reason to reject it.

Do you have any proof?

I say you don't get because the "restrictions" are actually minimal and common sense. Not everything revolves against Trump but you seem to think otherwise. Every decision has to be political and has to be for or against Trump. It must tough to imagine enemies where they aren't, world is a little more than black or white.

[Craig Lamson]

Yes. Exactly.

It’s not “the best he could do”. It’s what he should have done at least two weeks earlier.

And this one point is of huge importance. It’s everything.

That’s what a president must do in such circumstances. And not doing it is a mistake of historical proportions.

Most leaders in Europe share the view that this crisis is the most critical since WWII.

And since you claim to know that much better the way the US works you cannot not know that the president has a huge range to options to both influence and drive what people think and what states do.

Cheers,
Bernard

Are you simply not listening or is really so far beyond your ken that it’s becoming silly?

The President does not have the authority to tell every State they must issue a lockdown.  Only each State can order such a thing.  Trump could  suggest it, like he has done with his 15 and now 30 days to stop the spread guidelines.  He’s not a King Bernard and I find it highly amusing that recently you accuse him of ignoring the constitution and wanting him removed from office and how you want him to ignore the constitution.  The irony is delicious.

Every Governor was in the loop.  Every State was privy to the same information. They all made the choices they thought were correct. It was their call.  That’s how it works here. 

That’s the reality Bernard.  You seem oblivious to that fact.

Now, In case this too is beyond you, it is estimated 75 to 85 million people died in WWII. As bad as this is it will be nowhere near the level of WWII .

[armand]

...
 Most of the studies I've read (I spend five hours every AM reading pre-prints of papers across a number of areas) assume at minimum 10 people are infected for every case reported. 
...

I'm afraid this assumption is more on the wishful thinking side. Most of this data comes from China: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221
Until you do a massive sampling of population for antibodies coupled with a symptom questionnaire I will have doubts about its accuracy.

[JoeKitchen]

I'm afraid this assumption is more on the wishful thinking side. Most of this data comes from China: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221
Until you do a massive sampling of population for antibodies coupled with a symptom questionnaire I will have doubts about its accuracy.

Not going to lie, Alan Goldhammer may be on the direct opposite side of the spectrum political then I, but I would take his word on medical research over many others every day of the year, especially given his credentials and experience. 

[JoeKitchen]

Kushner is a nobody, distinguished only by his criminal, but rich, father, and the woman he married.  Kushner is relevant only because his wife's daddy selected him to do an important job.  And his wife's daddy has an unfortunate tendency to fire people better than him in favor of yes-men.

Well, regardless of his lack of public speaking skills, he did help in moving the embassy to Jerusalem and WWIII did not break out like every expert predicted. 

The country has moved on from the pre-2016 thinking, and much of that philosophy has been shown to be false. 

[BernardLanguillier]

Are you simply not listening or is really so far beyond your ken that it’s becoming silly?

The President does not have the authority to tell every State they must issue a lockdown.  Only each State can order such a thing.  Trump could  suggest it, like he has done with his 15 and now 30 days to stop the spread guidelines.  He’s not a King Bernard and I find it highly amusing that recently you accuse him of ignoring the constitution and wanting him removed from office and how you want him to ignore the constitution.  The irony is delicious.

Every Governor was in the loop.  Every State was privy to the same information. They all made the choices they thought were correct. It was their call.  That’s how it works here. 

That’s the reality Bernard.  You seem oblivious to that fact.

Now, In case this too is beyond you, it is estimated 75 to 85 million people died in WWII. As bad as this is it will be nowhere near the level of WWII .

You are not answering to the crystal clear point I am making.

You are focusing on what Trump cannot legally do instead of looking at what he could have done, should have done, but did way too late.

In doing so you are implicitly agreeing to me point about the total inability of Trump to act as a President. Confirming in the process his screaming shortcomings as well as the huge devaluation of the presidential function he has caused.

All that to avoid having to admit that your support to him was badly musguided and is resulting in the worsening of both the health of thousands of Americans and the economy.

Cheers,
Bernard

[James Clark]

Well, regardless of his lack of public speaking skills, he did help in moving the embassy to Jerusalem and WWIII did not break out like every expert predicted.

WOOHOO?

The country has moved on from the pre-2016 thinking, and much of that philosophy has been shown to be false.

LOL. It has? Trump's grade-school thinking and petty tweeting is the New World Order?  WTF is wrong with you?