So how is that Subscription Service working out for Adobe?

[Farmer]

There needs to be some public aspect because a private message wouldn't cause damage in the wider scope.

This particular case isn't trying to inhibit anything, it's saying that there's a fundamental right to identify someone in a civil case as there is in a criminal case (i.e. with court order) to enable an action to be taken.  That action may or may not succeed, but it shouldn't be prevented by virtue of anonymity - it should fail only if the law doesn't support it.

[BradSmith]

Isn't it time to shut down this topic, and if people want, to let them start new topics that have something to do with the babble that is going back and forth??

[Farmer]

Looks like it was self shut down until you replied :-)

[kers]

Looks like it was self shut down until you replied :-)

 

[Isaac]

FYI, here is the quick summary for Adobe's Negative Guidance for the 1st Qtr 2014 and FY 2014:

Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE) said it expects first quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $950.0 million to $1.0 billion and expects fiscal 2014 non-GAAP earnings of approximately $1.10 per share on revenue of approximately $4.06 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.33 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2014 and earnings of $1.60 per share on revenue of $4.36 billion for the year ending November 30, 2014.

So Adobe is going to miss 1st qtr earnings  per share by about 25% (33% to 15%) and FY 2014 EPS by about 30%. It is worth commenting that Adobe had already lowered their 2014 Fiscal Year (FY) estimates as a result of the transition to a subscription formula and had anticipated that they would be back on track in FY 2015. However, with this guidance, I think it will be hard to make 2015 estimates. I would not want to own Adobe stock right now.

fyi Adobe Q1 FY2014 earnings press release pdf

"Adobe exited Q1 with 1 million 844 thousand paid Creative Cloud subscriptions, an increase of 405 thousand when compared to the number of subscriptions as of the end of Q4 fiscal year 2013."

[LesPalenik]

Good April 1 story. That would explain why:
•Four insiders sold Adobe stock within one month.
•The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
•Two of these four insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.

(Released by Adobe on March 31)

[Isaac]

"buy the rumor, sell the news"

[Schewe]

Hum, Adobe is selling at about $65/share today which is down a bit from it's 52 week high of $71 back in Feb, 2014 but is considerably higher than the price of $41.91 last year on 4/1/13. So, what does this mean? (hint, Adobe's stock has performed very well since they announced Creative Cloud). Trying to read tea leaves based on insider trading is for fools...

[tuthill]

to May 31 for those who still haven't bitten.

[Rhossydd]

Adobe's stock has performed very well since they announced Creative Cloud

But as you point out so often, there's much more to Adobe than digital imaging products.

[digitaldog]

But as you point out so often, there's much more to Adobe than digital imaging products.

That don't affect it's stock and isn't part of the Creative Cloud?

[Rhossydd]

The point Andrew is that if other parts of Adobe are doing spectacularly well the stock price will rise even if CC is a complete failure.

[digitaldog]

The point Andrew is that if other parts of Adobe are doing spectacularly well the stock price will rise even if CC is a complete failure.

Again what parts would account for this? Lightroom? A few mobile apps? It's kind of like suggesting GM's profits were from selling car accessories instead of cars.

[Rhossydd]

Again what parts would account for this?

The marketing cloud

[digitaldog]

The marketing cloud

What's that?

On Adobes site I see I can buy san's CC, Lightroom and Elements. There are upgrades available for older software. So what else would I buy to aid the bottom line (stock)? Books? I see one. I see free mobile app's. Must be fonts that are making up the profits.

[Rhossydd]

What's that?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Adobe+Marketing+Cloud

Maybe you don't really know that much about Adobe ?

[digitaldog]

Maybe you don't really know that much about Adobe ?

What I know is, I don't know WTF you're talking about. 

[Rhossydd]

What I know is, I don't know WTF you're talking about. 

If you can't be bothered to Google 'Adobe Marketing Cloud' and understand what it's all about, no you won't know what I'm talking about.

AMC is probably the biggest potential for future revenue growth for Adobe now. If that becomes a storming success CC will just be a minor utility to AMC. That's the sort of innovation that making stock prices rise.

[digitaldog]

AMC is probably the biggest potential for future revenue growth for Adobe now.

Oh, so something that may happen in the future is affecting the stock price today, not the sales of CC. Perhaps, the market does reflect what may happen in the future. That said, where would one go to find out that this future potential and not the sales of CC are the direct result of the rise Jeff reports?

[Rhossydd]

Oh, so something that may happen in the future

Well I haven't seen the latest figures for AMC yet, but it's growth in the last two years has exceeded Adobe's expectations. Stock prices also follow what might happen, it's how money is made.