I have had Canon SLR’s since the early seventies and I followed this and similar discussions with some interest. I do think Canon has a few problems, and competition from Nikon is just one of them. I expect that in the next few years, Canon’s marketshare will erode considerably. Here are some reasons.
A Sony CEO has recently has declared they will invest heavily in the still camera market. And unlike Nikon, Sony has the size and muscle to match Canon’s R&D capacity.
While Sony repeatedly had to report massive financial losses and will certainly have a sense of urgency, Canon makes good profits and seems to rest on their laurels.
The SLR market has recently been entered by copycat par excellence, Samsung. Who may be quite busy right now, merrily reverse-engineering the D800 sensor. Do they matter? Yes, just ask Sony’s TV division, or Apple.
From what I read on these forums, I understand that Sony’s sensortech differs considerably from Canon’s. They will certainly have protected it with various patents. Now given their attitude in other fields, this may mean little to Samsung; but it may very well bear significance for Canon.
Canon have just renewed their prosumer and pro FF SLR products and since people who buy this stuff don’t like fast depreciation of their investment, we might not see new Canon pro(sumer) fulframe SLR’s for several years.
There is a pattern emerging in Canon prosumer pricing. New products get a hefty price tag, e.g. the EF 70-300 mm f/4-5.6 L IS telezoom. Revamped pro(sumer) designs get a massive price hike, e.g. the EF 70-200 mm f/2.8L IS MkII, EF 24-70 mm f/2.8 L MkII and the 5D MkIII. If only because of the present economic climate, Canon prosumer gear is increasingly being positioned out of reach of a considerable segment of their traditional market. And since Canon is no Apple, this means they will sell less units in the prosumer market. Which will give some competitor a chance to fill the gap and expand its clientbase.
There is little creative innovation coming from Canon, or Nikon for that matter. They have no answer to the NEX-7, smart niche products like the Fuji X-Pro1 or the various MFT incarnations from Panasonic and others. Let alone that they push forward in developing mirrorless designs themselves. And the gap is getting ever bigger. Pick up one of these small, elegant solutions and your Canon prosumer rig will feel like heavy, outdated tech of yesteryear. Now that EVF’s are maturing, larger sensors are appearing in mirrorless camera’s and more comprehensive lens systems are being developed for these systems, traditional, bulky SLR’s will loose appeal for ever more consumers.
So let me exaggerate all this into a dark picture for Canon in the market for quality consumer camera’s. They may be on a track to share the fate of Nokia and RIM, who when having considerable marketshare, consolidated and didn’t innovate. Today they are considered doomed, spiralling down into ... well, irrelevance.
I hope the Photokina proves me wrong.