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Author Topic: National Parks affected by the climate changes  (Read 29568 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #120 on: July 10, 2022, 08:31:19 pm »

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus

The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus

American Meteorological Society - September 2008

The Myth... When climate researcher Reid Bryson stood before the members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in December 1972, his description of the state of scientists' understanding of climate change sounded very much like the old story about the group of blind men trying to describe an elephant. The integrated enterprise of climate science as we know it today was in its infancy, with different groups of scientists feeling blindly around their piece of the lumbering climate beast.


Rigorous measurements of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide were available for the first time, along with modeling results suggesting that global warming would be a clear consequence. Meanwhile, newly created global temperature series showed cooling since the 1940s, and other scientists were looking to aerosols to explain the change. The mystery of waxing and waning ice ages had long entranced geologists, and a cohesive explanation in terms of orbital solar forcing was beginning to emerge. Underlying this discussion was a realization that climate could change on time scales with the potential for significant effects on human societies, and that human activities could trigger such changes (Bryson 1974).

Bryson laid out the following four questions that still stand today as being central to the climate science enterprise:

i) How large must a climate change be to be important?
ii) How fast can the climate change?
iii) What are the causal parameters, and why do they change?
iv) How sensitive is the climate to small changes in the causal parameters?

Despite active efforts to answer these questions, the following pervasive myth arose: there was a consensus among climate scientists of the 1970s that either global cooling or a full-fledged ice age was imminent (see the “Perpetuating the myth” sidebar). A review of the climate science literature from 1965 to 1979 shows this myth to be false. The myth’s basis lies in a selective misreading of the texts both by some members of the media at the time and by some observers today. In fact, emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the scientific literature even then. The research enterprise that grew in response to the questions articulated by Bryson and others, while considering the forces responsible for cooling, quickly converged on the view that greenhouse warming was likely to dominate on time scales that would be significant to human societies (Charney et al. 1979). However, perhaps more important than demonstrating that the global cooling myth is wrong, this review shows the remarkable way in which the individual threads of climate science of the time— each group of researchers pursuing their own set of questions—was quickly woven into the integrated tapestry that created the basis for climate science as we know it today.


Much More at Link Above


I lived through the time and claims of Global Cooling.  Everyone including scientists were talking about it.  The media pressed it home just as today they press home Global Warming. 

In  50 years, if Global Warming turns out to be a bust, scientists and media of the future will re-write history as they try now to re-write past claims of Global Cooling.  They will claim all sorts of proof there really was no real belief in Global Warming.  Everyone thought Global Warming was a myth.

TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #121 on: July 10, 2022, 08:33:39 pm »

Baloney.
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Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #122 on: July 10, 2022, 08:44:27 pm »

Great.  Another opinion about my points.  We're on a roll.  :)

Robert Roaldi

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #123 on: July 10, 2022, 09:32:33 pm »

I lived through the time and claims of Global Cooling.  Everyone including scientists were talking about it.  The media pressed it home just as today they press home Global Warming. 

In  50 years, if Global Warming turns out to be a bust, scientists and media of the future will re-write history as they try now to re-write past claims of Global Cooling.  They will claim all sorts of proof there really was no real belief in Global Warming.  Everyone thought Global Warming was a myth.

It's all a big con. Ignore it then.
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BAB

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #124 on: July 10, 2022, 10:50:11 pm »

At the current rate of ice melting in Greenland the entire island will be ice free in 200 years this is a prediction not a fact!
The ice is melting YES is that positive proof of permanent climate change, according to the recent reports fro the United States Government Agencies they don’t conclusively state and why would they. Is the ice melting yes is it going to continue ?  Who’s nose. Is the planet hotter hum some places is it an exact science nope.
Sorry to bring it up but things are beautiful depending on which way your looking and if they aren’t say they are or blame it on someone or something but get some famous people to tell everyone so it sounds like fact.
Fountain of youth stuff!

Really
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TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #125 on: July 10, 2022, 11:19:39 pm »

...is it an exact science nope...

Nope... and no one pretends that it is — except for those trying to create a false narrative surrounding the actual science, methodology, data, analysis, results, reports, updates, corrections, improved methodology, new data, new analysis, new results, and so on.
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BAB

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #126 on: July 11, 2022, 02:38:44 pm »

Nope... and no one pretends that it is — except for those trying to create a false narrative surrounding the actual science, methodology, data, analysis, results, reports, updates, corrections, improved methodology, new data, new analysis, new results, and so on.


There is no false narrative! OH YA the government report it might be possible that its not correct. Never-less please explain how in the next 200 years the notable scientific community has the proof. If you want you can use the same scientific community experts who said we all migrated from Africa found recently to be false, also proving man has been on earth a million years before they previously thought. Its science not fact.

"In science, a fact is an observation that's been confirmed so many times that scientists can, for all intents and purposes, accept it as "true." But everything in science comes with a level of uncertainty, so nothing is ever scientifically "true" beyond a shadow of a doubt."

Checkmate!


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TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #127 on: July 11, 2022, 03:05:38 pm »

Science seeks to provide the best available information and explanations based on current human knowledge and understanding. As human knowledge and understanding evolves and expands, so does the science that supports it. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

I'm occasionally surprised by attitudes that appear antagonistic toward science and the scientists and researchers supporting it, but quite happy to enjoy the rewards and benefits it brings to improving and enriching their lives.
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TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #128 on: July 11, 2022, 03:12:10 pm »

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Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #129 on: July 11, 2022, 04:35:15 pm »

It's all a big con. Ignore it then.
I think it’s overdone. There may be other factors that  are contributing to warming.

But my main objection is they're cherry-picking the negatives and totally ignoring the positives of a few more degrees.  For example, the earth in many areas is one-third greener because of higher levels of CO2.  Fauna grows thicker as well. (see link below)  Added to additional warming, there are now areas on earth that can be farmed increasing crop production and feeding more people.  Species are expanding into territories that couldn’t support them.  Humans will get these benefits as well. Of course, the media and science always talk about the danger to polar bears.  But they're only one species.  In any case, recent facts show that they aren’t dying out and are adapting to changes.

Also never mentioned are the costs.  When trillions will be spent on wind and solar generation and other green projects, that’s a lot of money never spent on feeding the hungry and healing the sick.  R&D funds are reduced in another important medical research.  Yet, few people publicly are talking about this.  The focus is only warming damage and not warming benefits or how spending so much will hurt us in other areas.  All these issues must be fleshed out to determine the best path.  That hasn't happened.  We're jumping off a limb hoping to land safely.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/earth-getting-greener-nasa-s-new-maps-confirm-69361

TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #130 on: July 11, 2022, 07:07:18 pm »

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/earth-getting-greener-nasa-s-new-maps-confirm-69361

The bottom line of the article...

"It is ironic that the very same carbon emissions responsible for harmful changes to climate are also fertilising plant growth, which in turn is somewhat moderating global warming,” said Jarle Bjerke of the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research and co-author of the paper.
 
Shilong Piao of Peking University, and lead author of the paper, said:"This greening and associated cooling is beneficial, but reducing carbon emissions is still needed in order to sustain the habitability of our planet."
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Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #131 on: July 11, 2022, 09:01:15 pm »

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/earth-getting-greener-nasa-s-new-maps-confirm-69361

The bottom line of the article...

"It is ironic that the very same carbon emissions responsible for harmful changes to climate are also fertilising plant growth, which in turn is somewhat moderating global warming,” said Jarle Bjerke of the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research and co-author of the paper.
 
Shilong Piao of Peking University, and lead author of the paper, said:"This greening and associated cooling is beneficial, but reducing carbon emissions is still needed in order to sustain the habitability of our planet."

Mr. Piao only commented on greening as an advantage because it cools the atmosphere.  He never mentioned and apparently has no knowledge of any of the other important attributes such as providing more arable land to grow food and expanding areas to support populations of thousands of species, including man.  He believes that warming is automatically bad for the earth without once mentioning any of its many benefits other than acting as a counter balance for some heating. 

TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #132 on: July 11, 2022, 09:44:02 pm »

Mr. Piao... apparently has no knowledge of... He believes...

You linked to and referenced the article. It's very brief. I actually read it and quoted from it.

Mr. Piao is only mentioned or quoted in a single sentence. You're judging his knowledge and beliefs from a single brief sentence.

Carnac the Magnificent has returned!



Next time you're doing a Google search to find articles, you might try reading what you link to first. Just a suggestion.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #133 on: July 11, 2022, 09:51:27 pm »

...such as providing more arable land to grow food and expanding areas to support populations of thousands of species, including man. ...

Except for all the places that burn up in wildfires or turn into deserts. And there isn't that much good topsoil in the tundra, so it's going to be a bitch to grow corn and wheat there, let alone apples and cantaloupes.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #134 on: July 11, 2022, 11:28:09 pm »

Alan, research the current irrigation situation in the Imperial Valley, CA.
You will be paying more for your lettuce next winter, and it’s not Biden’s fault.
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LesPalenik

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #135 on: July 11, 2022, 11:52:38 pm »

Alan doesn't buy lettuce, he is a meateater.
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TechTalk

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #136 on: July 12, 2022, 12:20:27 am »

Alan, research the current irrigation situation in the Imperial Valley, CA.
You will be paying more for your lettuce next winter, and it’s not Biden’s fault.

Peter... Peter...

You just haven't looked at the bright side of drought and wildfires yet. Say... you're not one of "they" are you? You know who "they" are.. "they're" cherry-picking the negatives and totally ignoring the positives of a few more degrees.
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Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #137 on: July 12, 2022, 07:13:14 am »

You linked to and referenced the article. It's very brief. I actually read it and quoted from it.

Mr. Piao is only mentioned or quoted in a single sentence. You're judging his knowledge and beliefs from a single brief sentence.

Carnac the Magnificent has returned!



Next time you're doing a Google search to find articles, you might try reading what you link to first. Just a suggestion.
You provided the article.  I can't read more into than it says. It never mentioned anything about any positive beliefs he or anyone else involved in the article had that warming would provide a positive impact of any sort other than more vegetation would have a cooling effect. Maybe it was the reporter's fault.  The media often removes positive news about global warming in keeping with their biased views on global warming.   

Alan Klein

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #138 on: July 12, 2022, 07:39:28 am »

Alan, research the current irrigation situation in the Imperial Valley, CA.
You will be paying more for your lettuce next winter, and it’s not Biden’s fault.
40 million people depend on the Colorado River and other water who live in California, Nevada, Arizona, and four other arid states. They moved into a desert and built water-guzzling homes, ponds, golf courses, lawns, farms, and pools, and wonder why there's not enough water. It's the desert!!  Warming or no warming.  Dry spells have always occurred there long before CO2.

In 1915 there were less than half a million people. In 1922, the water was divided up in a compact. But there was never enough water for the millions today considering droughts come and go. The last was 50 years ago when there was less CO2.  The issue is too many people live in a desert served by limited water.   So now they'll have to ration it even more than it's been rationed for 100 years.  I'm sorry they have this problem. But that's what happens when millions move into a desert and refuse to ration water appropriately.  And yes I do eat lettuce as well as steak. 

Western river compacts were innovative in the 1920s but couldn’t foresee today’s water challenges
The Western U.S. is in a water crisis, from California to Nebraska. An ongoing drought is predicted to last at least through July 2022. Recent research suggests that these conditions may be better labeled aridification – meaning that warming and drying are long-term trends.

On the Colorado River, the country’s two largest reservoirs – Lake Powell and Lake Mead – are at their lowest levels in 50 years. This could threaten water supplies for Western states and electricity generation from the massive hydropower turbines embedded in the lakes’ dams. In August 2021 the federal government issued a first-ever water shortage declaration for the Colorado, forcing supply cuts in several states.

The seven Colorado River Basin states – Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – signed a water sharing agreement, the Colorado River Compact, in 1922. Some observers are now calling for renegotiating the compact to correct errors and oversights. Nebraska and Colorado are also arguing over water from the South Platte River, which they share under a separate agreement signed in 1923.

https://theconversation.com/western-river-compacts-were-innovative-in-the-1920s-but-couldnt-foresee-todays-water-challenges-175121
« Last Edit: July 12, 2022, 07:43:03 am by Alan Klein »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: National Parks affected by the climate changes
« Reply #139 on: July 12, 2022, 09:52:41 am »

40 million people depend on the Colorado River and other water who live in California, Nevada, Arizona, and four other arid states. They moved into a desert and built water-guzzling homes, ponds, golf courses, lawns, farms, and pools, and wonder why there's not enough water. It's the desert!!  Warming or no warming.  Dry spells have always occurred there long before CO2....

Interesting way to phrase that. It's as if all those people were individually responsible for the mistakes, although you may not have meant it that way. I'd say that this is a good example of a possible failure in public governance. It was the responsibility of public planners to think about and plan for all the ramifications. It's a mistake to rely on the knowledge of individual property owners or (even worse) property developers, since those constituents have almost zero interest in the long term. That's not their fault, the incentives were (are) established incorrectly.

I say that it's a "possible" failure in governance allowing for the possibility that no one could have done better. That may itself be a cop-out, long-term planning principles are not unknown or obscure, but you need people in place to learn about them and use them.

The problem with complaining about public planning bodies (government) or starving them of cash is that when you need them, they're not there. Eventually, everyone pays the price of course.

I listened to an interesting podcast the other day, a conversation between two economic philosophers, neither of them particularly left wing, one American and the other Canadian. One thing they seemed to agree on about public governance is why Americans are, in general, against it and that's because US public institutions are not very good compared to the rest of the democratic world. It's one reason why Canadians and western Europeans, for example, have a difficult time understanding why Americans are against government. Maybe if you had better more efficient government, you would see it as an asset. As an example, I've detected an attitude about US public schools that is mystifying. Everyone complains about it but instead of fixing them, you seem to prefer to hand over money to private education companies instead. I think that's hare-brained myself, especially when the world is filled with examples of how to run public school systems well. But the US seems to have lost interest in public infrastructure, human and otherwise. This is very odd because it was precisely that infrastructure that got you to where you are and now you're throwing it all away. I think you should give your heads a shake.

Human society outgrew the libertarian "every man for himself" stage centuries before Ayn Rand was born, but the trouble is each generation needs to grow up independently, you can't absorb historical knowledge by osmosis. This means thinking, schooling, reasoned discussion, all of which are in shorter and shorter supply.
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