Russian Invasion

[kers]

I see from various online reports that Trump is doubling down on his admiration for Putin's "strong" leadership.

Only 'strong' in the sense of 'many tanks and (cluster) grenades...'

[Peter McLennan]

I found this Ukraine background video particularly informing:

https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE

26 min.

[Manoli]

For a historical perspective, suggest a remarkably prescient article by Henry Kissinger published in the WP, in March 2014.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html

"A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction" and was adamant that "Ukraine should not join NATO", and further advised Russia that it "would not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself" and that "a policy of military impositions would produce another Cold War"

8 years later, here we are.

[Manoli]

A twitter post by Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess grandmaster, from a few hours ago.

We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13

Putin once again told Macron to go to hell, no surprise. NATO/EU has already told Putin they won't touch his forces, so why should he listen? Russia is lifting target limitations and the death toll is rising every hour and lack of water & electricity is critical. 2/13

No treaty forbids NATO nations from fighting to defend in Ukraine. It's a choice based on the risk of Putin going nuclear, many say. That arming Ukrainians is an acceptable risk of WWIII & the citizenship of the pilot or soldier changes Putin's nuclear calculus, or NATO's. 3/13

If they care so much about the fine print and think Putin does too, ask Zelensky to issue Ukrainian passports to any volunteer to fly in combat. Sell jets to Ukraine for €1 each and paint UKR flags on them. Do you think Putin will care? Is it worth the lives lost? 4/13

This is already World War III. Putin started it long ago & Ukraine is only the current front. He will escalate anyway, and it's even more likely if he succeeds in destroying Ukraine because you have again convinced him you won't stop him even though you could. 5/13

Biden & others insist NATO would retaliate should Putin attack Baltic members. Watching Ukraine, I am not sure of that at all, and Putin won't be either. If the calculation is about nuclear risk, it's no different over Estonia than Ukraine. Don't say "Putin would never". 6/13

If this sounds familiar, it's the same argument from 2014, when Putin invaded E Ukraine and annexed Crimea. It was too risky to stop him, I was told, as I pleaded for intervention and warned he would never stop there. Here we are, with bombs raining down. 7/13

Risk and costs are higher now because the "reasonable" people in the West always choose lower risk today to guarantee higher risk tomorrow. Clearing the UKR skies after a warning period is risky. Letting Putin destroy Ukraine is riskier, & a human and moral disaster. 8/13

There is no waiting this out. This isn't chess; there's no draw, no stalemate. Either Putin destroys Ukraine and eventually hits NATO with an even greater catastrophe, or Putin falls in Russia. He cannot be stopped with weakness. 9/13

The corridors to get weapons, food, and medicine in and refugees out are narrowing and can be closed. Putin can bomb the trains, close the borders with NATO nations. The odds of Russian forces hitting a NATO asset are increasing, and then what? Still watching? 10/13

If your answer is no, that if a wing of a RU jet crosses Polish airspace, of course NATO will engage immediately, ask why thousands of Ukrainians civilians dying first matters less than a treaty, and what that says to Putin. That you're honorable, or a fool? We know. 11/13

As I said in 2014 and a fateful week ago, the price of stopping a dictator always goes up. What would have been enough to stop Putin 8 years or 6 months or 2 weeks ago is not enough today, and the price will rise again tomorrow. Fight. Find a way. 12/13

Putin vows to exterminate Ukrainians while we watch. Ukraine did nothing wrong but try to join the democratic world that is now witnessing crimes against humanity in real time. Not unable. Unwilling. #CloseTheSky 13/13

[BernardLanguillier]

As much as I feel sorry for the people of Ukraine, I also feel sorry for the citizens of Russia.

I believe that a majority of them see very clearly what is going on and share the pain of their brothers and sisters in Ukraine.

Some certainly believe in the propaganda of Putine, just like some people believed in the propaganda of Trump, but it seems to be a minority. We see where autocratic populist leaders can take a large country in 2022, if proof was still needed...

Regards,
Bernard

[Peter McLennan]

As much as I feel sorry for the people of Ukraine, I also feel sorry for the citizens of Russia.
I believe that a majority of them see very clearly what is going on and share the pain of their brothers and sisters in Ukraine.

An admirable sentiment, but naieve, Bernard.  Most Russians know nothing of what's going on. They're intentionally insulated by Putin from all western media, Internet included.

They're prohibited from even mentioning the "Special Military Operation, let alone protesting it.

[BernardLanguillier]

An admirable sentiment, but naieve, Bernard.  Most Russians know nothing of what's going on. They're intentionally insulated by Putin from all western media, Internet included.

They're prohibited from even mentioning the "Special Military Operation, let alone protesting it.

I am aware that accessing internet from Russia is more and more challenging but neutral sites like LL are not banned yet. I think it’s important to convey this message as often as possible.

This message can also be conveyed from Russians living outside Russia to their relatives.

The opposition to the invasion of Ukraine isn’t the least bit anti-Russian, it’s anti Putine.

[Chris Kern]

An admirable sentiment, but naieve, Bernard.  Most Russians know nothing of what's going on. They're intentionally insulated by Putin from all western media, Internet included.

Probably not.

Based on what I'm hearing from my former colleagues at the Voice of America, while the Russian government may have attempted to block access by the country's population to VOA, as well as to the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty, and other international news organizations, the news is still managing to get through.

VOA and its counterparts in other countries have over the years developed technical mechanisms for circumventing the censorship efforts of authoritarian governments.  Admittedly, these are only partially effective.  They depend to a significant extent on the ability of members of the audience to employ the circumvention techniques, which varies considerably according to the technical savvy of segments of the population.  But I suspect most people in Russia who really want to know what is actually going on are able to find out.

Shortly after VOA Russian set a one-day traffic record across all platforms on February 24, Russian regulators announced their intention to block VOA and other independent news outlets. As a result, not only did the use of circumvention tools suddenly soar in Russia in recent days, but golosameriki.com set another one-day site traffic record on March 3.

— VOA press release, March 2

I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of Russians to see through their government's propaganda.

[Peter McLennan]

I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of Russians to see through their government's propaganda.

I hope you're right.

CBC News has just bailed on reporting from Russia.

The CBC has joined the BBC in saying it will temporarily suspend all its reporting from the ground in Russia after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill introducing a prison sentence of up to 15 years for spreading information that goes against the Russian government's position on the war in Ukraine.

In an online statement, CBC/Radio-Canada said it is "very concerned about new legislation passed in Russia, which appears to criminalize independent reporting on the current situation in Ukraine and Russia."

[LesPalenik]

Probably not.

Based on what I'm hearing from my former colleagues at the Voice of America, while the Russian government may have attempted to block access by the country's population to VOA, as well as to the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Liberty, and other international news organizations, the news is still managing to get through.

VOA and its counterparts in other countries have over the years developed technical mechanisms for circumventing the censorship efforts of authoritarian governments.  Admittedly, these are only partially effective.  They depend to a significant extent on the ability of members of the audience to employ the circumvention techniques, which varies considerably according to the technical savvy of segments of the population.  But I suspect most people in Russia who really want to know what is actually going on are able to find out. I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of Russians to see through their government's propaganda.

Not really! Although some Russian citizens are quite knowledgeable as to what's happening in Russia and in the rest of the world, a large part of the population has been for years manipulated by the Russian propaganda and is completely clueless of the actual situation. "Batushka Putin is good and America is bad".

An example of this is shown in the video below.

A 25-year old girl, called Oleksandra from Kharkiv spoke to BBC how she called her mother who lives in Moscow and the mother didn't believe her that Russian army is bombarding Kharkiv. Both parents told Alexandra that Russian army would never target civilians and that it's the Ukrainians who are killing their own people. Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZA3AuoFTIwg

After a few of my own conversations with some Russians I am not surprised at all by the above example. They blindly believe what they hear on TV.

As of yesterday, Russia blocked TV Rain, its last independent TV channel, and Echo of Moscow aired its last broadcast. The Internet portal "Meduza", as well as the Sibirian website "Tayga Info" were closed, too. These were news agencies that described Putin's war against Ukraine as such and did not speak of a "special military operation" as prescribed by the official terminology.

Independent journalism is effectively dead. The blocked Internet television channel TV Doschd (TV Rain) and the news portal »Znak« have stopped working, the risk for the employees is too high. The Novaya Gazeta, critical of the Kremlin, began to delete articles that spoke of war. Foreign media such as the BBC and CNN stopped reporting from the country to protect their journalists.

The background is the law on "public dissemination of intentionally false information about the use of the armed forces of the Russian Federation". On Friday, both chambers of parliament rushed through the amendments to the law without discussion, and they came into force that same evening with Putin's signature.

This effectively bans reporting on Russia's war against Ukraine. Any information that does not correspond to the Kremlin's view is now considered "fake." Those who do not comply face high fines, "corrective labor" or up to 15 years in prison, depending on the sentence. The law affects "all citizens, not just those of Russia," as the chairman of the Duma committee on information policy, Alexander Chinstejn, emphasized.

[LesPalenik]

Not only Russians, also some Serbians believe Russian propaganda. According to German Spiegel, people in Belgrade are taking to the streets and cheering on Putin's campaign.

In the Serbian capital of Belgrade, around a thousand pro-Russian demonstrators took to the streets to express their support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With Russian flags and pictures of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, the demonstrators marched through the city center on Friday evening. Many chanted anti-NATO slogans. "Ukraine is currently being liberated from neo-Nazis," 22-year-old demonstrator Nikola Babic told the AFP news agency. "The Russians – our brothers – liberate the country and hopefully the world."

While protests against the Russian invasion of Ukraine are taking place in many other major European cities, many Serbs are supporting Russian President Putin. A number of Serbian news agencies have defended his attack on the neighboring country in recent days. In the UN General Assembly, Serbia voted in favor of a resolution condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine. However, the country has not joined the Western sanctions against Russia. In terms of energy policy, Serbia is heavily dependent on Russia.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russlands-krieg-in-der-ukraine-putin-wird-in-belgrad-gefeiert-a-92e78e78-ecb2-49e8-ad6c-2d2d672ae43b

[Manoli]

BBC
Russia oligarchs: The mega-rich men facing global sanctions




Edit:
Number of companies or individuals sanctioned for links to Putin (so far):

🇪🇺 EU 446
🇨🇭 Switzerland 351
🇺🇸 USA 148
🇬🇧 UK 24 (with 30 days to 18 months notice)

[LesPalenik]

Elon Musk talks with Zelenskyy

6 min. long video by Dave Lee about Starlink over Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYcYk7Rh3Wo

[dreed]

If you want to see what will happen to the cities in Ukraine, look for pictures of Grozny - google for:

grozny chechen war

and look at the images of civilian buildings.

Putin is doing to Ukraine what he did back in the 1990s to Chechnya.

[PeterAit]

Perhaps the wackiest conspiracy theory yet: "Q-Anon conspiracy theorists are claiming that former President Donald Trump is aiding Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine to destroy secret bioweapons labs run by Dr. Anthony Fauci."

https://www.newsweek.com/qanon-theory-says-trump-putin-working-together-destroy-fauci-labs-1685105

[kers]

Perhaps the wackiest conspiracy theory yet: "Q-Anon conspiracy theorists are claiming that former President Donald Trump is aiding Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine to destroy secret bioweapons labs run by Dr. Anthony Fauci."

https://www.newsweek.com/qanon-theory-says-trump-putin-working-together-destroy-fauci-labs-1685105

...and Hunter Biden... (!) (!)

[BernardLanguillier]

Not only Russians, also some Serbians believe Russian propaganda. According to German Spiegel, people in Belgrade are taking to the streets and cheering on Putin's campaign.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russlands-krieg-in-der-ukraine-putin-wird-in-belgrad-gefeiert-a-92e78e78-ecb2-49e8-ad6c-2d2d672ae43b

Propaganda works, no doubt. 25% of the US voters appear to be believing the Trump propaganda and the bubble they isolated themselves in in terms of media access and community togetherness (only talk with other like minded people) is probably pretty similar to what many Russians are suffering from.

Cheers,
Bernard

[LesPalenik]

Propaganda works, no doubt. 25% of the US voters appear to be believing the Trump propaganda and the bubble they isolated themselves in in terms of media access and community togetherness (only talk with other like minded people) is probably pretty similar to what many Russians are suffering from.

Cheers,
Bernard

Russia made the propaganda and population control a science. There was an interview on CNN with the Chief Ukrainian rabbi who spent also couple of years in Soviet Union. He describes that the most frightening thing for living in such a totalitarian regime is that people are not only afraid to talk, but it gets to such an extreme that they are afraid to think - because when you think, you'll start talking (pretty much as in Orwell's 1984). At 4:45 min in the below video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KME1X1iafY

[digitaldog]

Russia made the propaganda and population control a science.

Not just Russia:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/russias-attacks-truth-are-frighteningly-familiar-americans-rcna18960

Russia's totalitarian attacks on truth should look familiar to Americans
As the Kremlin cracks down on truth in Russia, Americans need to take note of the ways our concept of truth is under assault as well.
Watching Russia’s attempts to create an alternate reality is deeply worrying. But Americans have heard our own officials praise “alternative facts” in the past.

[Frans Waterlander]

Here's another concept of truth: gas is now $4.40 a gallon at the discount pump in Washington State. At the same place it was $3.55 a gallon on February 6. Way to go Biden!