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Author Topic: Cars - history, now and future  (Read 14470 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #60 on: January 15, 2022, 07:45:49 pm »

Very interesting.  How good are battery operated hydraulics.  I am assuming they would be good enough to run sprayers and such. 

Although it is more of a once every couple of decades thing to do, and may just be better to sub out when needed, I wonder how well these tractors are with deep ripping of hardpan?  I realize, just like anything other standard tractor, they would never be able to go down 4 or 5 feet in solid Cali hardpan, but 2.5 feet on loam would be nice. 
 
PS
I did look up the Solectrac thin profile tractor and the major issue I see is no mention of an hydraulic system.  Perhaps on future models? but a deal breaker for any operations that need a sprayer.  Also, it is ugly!

Here is another electric tractor - Monarch:



https://www.producebluebook.com/2021/11/19/monarch-tractor-secures-funding-to-complete-production-of-smart-electric-tractor/#
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LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #61 on: January 16, 2022, 12:06:41 am »

For the obvious things, I think they're fine.  But what about the not-so-obvious?  For example, you're about to make a left turn at a four-way intersection with stop signs.  You check the eyes in the driver on the other side of the road to see that he sees you before starting to turn.  That way he doesn't pull out just as you committed to the turn.  Will FSD see that? 

You see two children playing catch on the sidewalk in front of you to the right.  The kid misses the ball and it starts rolling to the curb.  You know the kid is going to chase after it. So you remove your foot from the accelerator and feather your brake pedal until the incident passes.  Can FSD perform that or will it keep driving waiting for the kid to actually be in the street  before trying to stop the car before it may hit the kid?

Tesla has captured and evaluated billions of driven miles. Waymo has millions of miles, but their hardware is more robust, including radars and lidars. Both companies add also many millions of simulated miles and these are the hard-core test situations into which they can insert the dangerous elements, like a sudden pedestrian or animal move, rain and snow, missing lane markings, or unidentified objects appearing on the horizon.  In addition to the vast databases filled with all kinds of situations, the hardware itself is also improving, especially when it comes to greater sensor sensitivity and resolution, and with improvements in computational speed. To sum it up, FSD is getting better with time.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #62 on: January 16, 2022, 06:03:20 am »

I looked at a test drive video from last month.  The Tesla seemed to have many issues with just normal driving on a relatively quiet suburban road.  It had a lot of hesitancy and the driver had to keep adjusting things.   The technology is not up to human standards which shows just how amazing our abilities are.   This shows just how complicated some tasks are.  The amount of data processed by humans driving and their reactions is amazing.   I don't know if The EV technology will ever get there. It may be limited to certain circumstances like highway driving on nterstates.

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #63 on: January 16, 2022, 06:47:43 am »

I looked at a test drive video from last month.  The Tesla seemed to have many issues with just normal driving on a relatively quiet suburban road.  It had a lot of hesitancy and the driver had to keep adjusting things.   The technology is not up to human standards which shows just how amazing our abilities are.   This shows just how complicated some tasks are.  The amount of data processed by humans driving and their reactions is amazing.   I don't know if The EV technology will ever get there. It may be limited to certain circumstances like highway driving on nterstates.

Autonomous driving it is not linked exclusively to EVs. it could be theoretically applied also to ICE cars. Yes, FSD has some issues at this time, it hasn't been released officially yet, it is still in beta stage. Maybe 90-95% ready. That's better that many human drivers I see on the roads. Come and check it out again later this year.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #64 on: January 16, 2022, 08:28:15 am »

Autonomous driving it is not linked exclusively to EVs. it could be theoretically applied also to ICE cars. Yes, FSD has some issues at this time, it hasn't been released officially yet, it is still in beta stage. Maybe 90-95% ready. That's better that many human drivers I see on the roads. Come and check it out again later this year.
Here's the video of the test drive I watched.  Except for drivers here in New Jersey where I live, most humans drive better.   :)
https://youtu.be/7WijopiCq5s

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #65 on: January 16, 2022, 09:28:23 am »

In 1958, a chess program (NSS) beat a human player for the first time. Over the years, many computers took on many chess masters, and the computers lost. It took another 39 years before an IBM computer Deep Blue beat the world chess champion after a six-game match: two wins for IBM, one for the champion and three draws.

Quote
The IBM machine could explore up to 200 million possible chess positions per second. The chess grandmaster won the first game, Deep Blue took the next one, and the two players drew the three following games. Game 6 ended the match with a crushing defeat of the champion by Deep Blue.

It won't take that long for the FSD to beat a human in navigating through New York or win a race on Nurnburgring.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #66 on: January 16, 2022, 09:41:25 am »

In 1958, a chess program (NSS) beat a human player for the first time. Over the years, many computers took on many chess masters, and the computers lost. It took another 39 years before an IBM computer Deep Blue beat the world chess champion after a six-game match: two wins for IBM, one for the champion and three draws.

It won't take that long for the FSD to beat a human in navigating through New York or win a race on Nurnburgring.
I hope you're right.  I'm getting older and could reach a point where I can't drive much anymore.

Peter McLennan

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #67 on: January 16, 2022, 03:04:55 pm »

I realize, just like anything other standard tractor, they would never be able to go down 4 or 5 feet in solid Cali hardpan,

I've shot heavy construction all over the world. No machine I've ever seen could do that, except possibly a D9H with a ripper.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #68 on: January 16, 2022, 04:33:01 pm »

Here is a Rivian R1T driving up in a steep canyon.

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yeth5v_5dPM

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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #69 on: January 16, 2022, 04:34:32 pm »

I wouldn't want to be standing where that guy is.

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #70 on: January 16, 2022, 04:36:24 pm »

I wouldn't want to be standing where that guy is.

The truck is moving very slowly. Watch the video.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #71 on: January 16, 2022, 04:39:03 pm »

OK I changed my mind.  I wouldn't want to be the driver.  ;)

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #72 on: January 16, 2022, 04:40:37 pm »

OK I changed my mind.  I wouldn't want to be the driver.  ;)

I wouldn't want to be the owner of the truck.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #73 on: January 16, 2022, 04:42:33 pm »

I wouldn't want to be the owner of the truck.
I could just see the accident report to the insurance company:  I was driving up this mountain bluff and....

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #74 on: January 16, 2022, 04:50:06 pm »

This was filmed on Rivian promotion day in September 2021. All trucks owned by Rivian company. Here is another, even more narrowing scene from that canyon. Start at 3.00'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86lXvVIMmes
« Last Edit: January 16, 2022, 04:53:32 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #75 on: January 16, 2022, 05:08:01 pm »

Why is that blue car at the bottom where he is? What a dummy.

LesPalenik

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #76 on: January 16, 2022, 05:12:26 pm »

Why is that blue car at the bottom where he is? What a dummy.

I guess, he is anxious to join the fun. Or to stop any trucks rolling down the canyon.
I think it was filmed on the Hell's Revenge Trail in Utah.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2022, 05:16:49 pm by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #77 on: January 16, 2022, 05:27:19 pm »

I guess, he is anxious to join the fun. Or to stop any trucks rolling down the canyon.
I think it was filmed on the Hell's Revenge Trail in Utah.
Appropriate name for the trail.

TechTalk

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #78 on: January 16, 2022, 06:43:02 pm »

Additionally, a property with a barn typically comes with a decent amount of acres and the need for a tractor.  I have been researching those as well, especially thin profile versions designed for vineyards.  Along with with needing the right amount of horse-power and hydraulics for any attachments, one of the biggest issues with tractors, it turns out, is the large rear wheels make them prone to rolling over backwards, which could kill the driver.

I'm not a farmer and my experience is limited, but I do have some experience doing seasonal summer work on a farm and driving a tractor. When I was in high school, I spent three summers working for a small family farmer. My main duties were driving the tractor for hay baling and livestock operations, feeding livestock, and being the catcher and stacker for storing bales in a hay loft. The latter quickly taught me the weight difference in bales depending on what we baled that day. Bales of straw, grass, and alfalfa are much different in weight. Believe me, you notice the difference when you're leaning over a loft with heavy gloves and a long sleeve shirt to avoid being cut to ribbons and catching bales, being thrown up to you, with a couple of baling hooks to stack over and over. I don't even want to think what the temperature was in the top of that loft on a hot summer day!

It was hard physical labor! I was a city boy that worked those three years because it was a family friend, for the experience, and the exercise. I learned that I never wanted to work that hard again in my life! I was young and athletic, but this farmer in his 50s made me look like a weakling in comparison. He had biceps like a Virginia ham and could cock a heavy bale back on his shoulder and shoot it straight up in the air for me to catch, which I somehow managed to do almost every time. Yeah, no conveyor to bring the bales up to me. Don't ask me why because I never asked. The experience was good for me; because anytime in later life I thought that the work I was doing was difficult at the moment, I would remember working on that farm and think, this really isn't so bad. It was an exercise in character building to do that farm work which gave me an appreciation for what hard work actually meant.

Because Joe is a food guy, I'll mention those farm lunches were memorable. The farmer was a widower, but his mother and aunt prepared lunch each day with veggies from their garden, potatoes of some kind, freshly baked bread or rolls, and lots of protein. In addition to whatever meat was being served, there was always a big platter of fried eggs from the chickens they raised. We not only worked off the big lunch, but would stop for a short mid-afternoon snack and then back to work.

So, about tractors that I drove on a small farm... I drove two that he owned. One was a very old one-cylinder tractor inherited from his dad and the other much more modern. Both tractors were the utility type that you generally see on small farms. If some heavier or more specialized type of equipment, like a bulldozer or backhoe, were needed he hired someone to come do that job for him.

Driving and hauling with a tractor is very different from driving a car or truck. I got a lot of instruction on when, where, and why to use each gear; when and how to use the brake when hauling; and selecting the right path to steer. This was not only to get the job done efficiently, but to minimize safety risks as well—for both of us, as he was generally in a wagon attached directly to the tractor or behind the baler whenever I was driving. The primary safety mechanism in place was his knowledge of what the limits were for load hauling across different parts of his farm for each tractor.

As for rollover protection structures (ROPS), there was none with the tractors that I drove which made listening to his instructions all the more important. Today, however, I'm pretty sure that all tractors being sold have ROPS to protect the driver.

Sorry for the long intro, but if any young people are reading this and want to give farm work a try... It's a great life lesson in learning about hard work, but it will often be a miserable physically demanding grind. On the plus side, the food was great if you enjoy down-home country cooking! You'll earn that food though as well as work it off quickly.
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Respice, adspice, prospice - Look to the past, the present, the future

TechTalk

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Re: Cars - history, now and future
« Reply #79 on: January 16, 2022, 06:51:52 pm »

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Respice, adspice, prospice - Look to the past, the present, the future
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