Cars - history, now and future

[Alan Klein]

Volvo is not the safest car any longer.

Right. A Tesla was sent into space.  Who else has done that?

[Robert Roaldi]

But Norway is a little country with a population of 5 million about equal to Brooklyn and Queens.  How far do they drive?  So what might be good for Volvo, might not be good for GM or Ford who supplies cars in America with 330 million people and millions of square miles in its territory.  Maybe Volvo will survive on all-electric or they might have to backtrack a little until humanity catches up. 

What we need is a design that uses sea water.   

Does everything need to be black and white all the time? Yes, it's true that many people drive long distances, but it's also true that many people don't. It's a big world out there, there is room for many different methods of transportation.

[Alan Klein]

Does everything need to be black and white all the time? Yes, it's true that many people drive long distances, but it's also true that many people don't. It's a big world out there, there is room for many different methods of transportation.

I'm just pointing out why it might be easier for Volvo to go all-electric in their small home country.  It wouldn't work for a GM or Ford to give up their traditional gasoline auto designs and switch over to all electric.  At least not yet.  By the way, what is Volvo doing with their truck lines?

[LesPalenik]

I'm just pointing out why it might be easier for Volvo to go all-electric in their small home country.  It wouldn't work for a GM or Ford to give up their traditional gasoline auto designs and switch over to all electric.  At least not yet.  By the way, what is Volvo doing with their truck lines?

Nowadays it's easy to drive all-electric also in a big country. The supercharger stations are now available in all 50 states.

Piloted by Ryan Levenson and Josh Allan, the Model S crossed the country in 42 hours and 17 minutes. That's two hours faster than the previous record, set in a Porsche Taycan.

the team managed to reach 155 mph in the standard Model S. But the sustained speeds weren't quite as high, as there's still a benefit to driving slightly more efficiency. As EV endurance and charging speeds improve, though, expect the electric-car record to inch closer to the overall record of 25 hours and 39 minutes. Given how quickly the EV record has fallen since 2017, it might not be as far away as you think.

https://youtu.be/Q1X2fEjFQxQ

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a38095522/ev-cannonball-record-tesla-model-s/#:~:text=A%20Rented%20Tesla%20Model%20S,set%20in%20a%20Porsche%20Taycan.&text=The%20timetables%20dictated%20that%20he,the%20middle%20of%20the%20afternoon.

[Alan Klein]

Nowadays it's easy to drive all-electric also in a big country. The supercharger stations are now available in all 50 states.

https://youtu.be/Q1X2fEjFQxQ

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a38095522/ev-cannonball-record-tesla-model-s/#:~:text=A%20Rented%20Tesla%20Model%20S,set%20in%20a%20Porsche%20Taycan.&text=The%20timetables%20dictated%20that%20he,the%20middle%20of%20the%20afternoon.

There aren;t enough of them yet.  YOu could drive miles and miles out of the way to get to one.  Here's a map of central new Jersey west of NYC.  I place a measuring line on it that shows 47 miles from the city for reference.  I would have to drive 9 miles to get to the nearest one where I live.  When you're traveling, you could be twenty miles off your route when driving through.  Then you might have to wait if it's busy.  Plus it takes a lot of time even then.  Gas stations are all over and take 5 minutes to gas up.

Electric is good for two car families with private homes where you can charge up one overnight and use the car locally.  But you need the second car with gas for the rest of the time.

[JoeKitchen]

The cost of electricity for an EV depends on the state where you live and also where you charge it. If you charge it at home, it would cost you around $50-$100 a month. If you charge at highway supercharger, it would cost more, but still less than filling the car with gasoline.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/how-much-does-it-cost-to-charge-an-ev/

As to electric tractors, one company making them is California-based Solectrac. As you say, the weight of the battery can put to good use if mounted in the front.

The other option would be a battery powered pickup truck like Rivian or Ford F150 Lighting.

https://www.agriculture.com/machinery/tractors/an-electric-tractor-may-be-in-your-future

Very interesting.  How good are battery operated hydraulics.  I am assuming they would be good enough to run sprayers and such. 

Although it is more of a once every couple of decades thing to do, and may just be better to sub out when needed, I wonder how well these tractors are with deep ripping of hardpan?  I realize, just like anything other standard tractor, they would never be able to go down 4 or 5 feet in solid Cali hardpan, but 2.5 feet on loam would be nice. 

 
PS
I did look up the Solectrac thin profile tractor and the major issue I see is no mention of an hydraulic system.  Perhaps on future models? but a deal breaker for any operations that need a sprayer.  Also, it is ugly! 

[JoeKitchen]

You say that as if EVs are still a long way off. While you weren't paying attention, they became mainstream. I read somewhere that something like 30% of all cars in Norway are EVs, and ICE will be banned soon. I believe that's true of other countries. We're not at the proto-type test phase anymore.

What are the subsidies?  What would it be if all subsidies were taken away? 

To go mainstream you will either need to get rid of most subsidies or drastically raise taxes.  If they become much cheaper to produce, the former would be doable.  If not, people will only put up with the new taxes so long. 

[JoeKitchen]

There aren;t enough of them yet.  YOu could drive miles and miles out of the way to get to one.  Here's a map of central new Jersey west of NYC.  I place a measuring line on it that shows 47 miles from the city for reference.  I would have to drive 9 miles to get to the nearest one where I live.  When you're traveling, you could be twenty miles off your route when driving through.  Then you might have to wait if it's busy.  Plus it takes a lot of time even then.  Gas stations are all over and take 5 minutes to gas up.

Electric is good for two car families with private homes where you can charge up one overnight and use the car locally.  But you need the second car with gas for the rest of the time.

We tend to think about things from our own perspectives.  EVs could never work for me.  I have a rather odd unpredictable work life where how far I need to travel on a given day could be 2 miles or 200 miles. 

I think though for city dwellers who have predictable and consistent live styles, EVs would be fine.  Most of NYC gets by without owning a car. 

The only hesitancy I could foresee, and not that I would have done this as a kid  , would be parallel parked EVs being unplugged at night by neighborhood jokesters. 

[Alan Klein]

The cost of electricity for an EV depends on the state where you live and also where you charge it. If you charge it at home, it would cost you around $50-$100 a month. If you charge at highway supercharger, it would cost more, but still less than filling the car with gasoline.  If you have solar panels on your roof, you could save even more.

Here is a handy Canadian Fuel Saving Calculator
Using the Tesla Model 3 SR car for 20,000km per year I calculated savings of $2,523Cdn The savings in US would be slightly lower, since the gas is cheaper there and also the US $ is worth more.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/how-much-does-it-cost-to-charge-an-ev/

As to electric tractors, one company making them is California-based Solectrac. As you say, the weight of the battery can put to good use if mounted in the front.

The other option would be a battery powered pickup truck like Rivian or Ford F150 Lighting.

https://www.agriculture.com/machinery/tractors/an-electric-tractor-may-be-in-your-future

In addition to the $50-100 per month cost for electricity to recharge, you have to also include the amortized value of the cost of the battery against a gasoline power-train when you purchase the car.  Right now they're more costly than gas.  They are suppose to become cheaper by 2027. 

Electric cars ‘will be cheaper to produce than fossil fuel vehicles by 2027’
By 2026, larger vehicles such as electric sedans and SUVs will be as cheap to produce as petrol and diesel models, according to forecasts from BloombergNEF, with small cars reaching the threshold the following year.

Electric vehicles reaching price parity with the internal combustion engine is seen as a key milestone in the world’s transition from burning fossil fuels.

A charging cable is pictured plugged into an electric vehicle parked in a bay reserved for electric vehicles
Electric car insurance in UK ‘is £45 less than for petrol or diesel vehicle’
Read more
The falling cost of producing batteries for electric vehicles, combined with dedicated production lines in carmarkers’ plants, will make them cheaper to buy, on average, within the next six years than conventional cars, even before any government subsidies, BloombergNEF found.

The current average pre-tax retail price of a medium-sized electric car is €33,300 (£28,914), compared with €18,600 for a petrol car, according to the research. In 2026, both are forecast to cost about €19,000.

By 2030, the same electric car is forecast to cost €16,300 before tax, while the petrol car would cost €19,900.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/09/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-to-produce-than-fossil-fuel-vehicles-by-2027

[Alan Klein]

What are the subsidies?  What would it be if all subsidies were taken away? 

To go mainstream you will either need to get rid of most subsidies or drastically raise taxes.  If they become much cheaper to produce, the former would be doable.  If not, people will only put up with the new taxes so long. 

Government intervention in the free market with rebates causes misallocation of resources and malinvestments.  For example, manufacturers think that everyone seems to be moving toward EV's because of rebates.  So factories are built and Volvo goes all electric.  Then the rebates stop. Companies go bankrupt because there is less demand for the product.  It also causes distortions in other markets.

This is like what happened when the government mandated methanol into gasoline so there would be 10% of it.  Methanol comes from corn.  So farmers started to plant more corn limiting the production of other vegetables raising their prices.  Because so much corn was going for gasoline, the price of meat went up as corn is used as feed for cattle and there was less of it.  Unintended consequences

[Alan Klein]

We tend to think about things from our own perspectives.  EVs could never work for me.  I have a rather odd unpredictable work life where how far I need to travel on a given day could be 2 miles or 200 miles. 

I think though for city dwellers who have predictable and consistent live styles, EVs would be fine.  Most of NYC gets by without owning a car. 

The only hesitancy I could foresee, and not that I would have done this as a kid  , would be parallel parked EVs being unplugged at night by neighborhood jokesters. 

I lived in Queens NYC for many years.  NYC has a lot of cars considering.  We lived in an apartment.  We had one car, my wife's of course,  that was valet parked in the building's heated garage.  But there was no practical way I could see for them to install charges for so many cars at night.  The other car, the one I drove I had to park in the bitter cold and snowy street by a curb somewhere where I could get snowed in.   There's no practical way to build chargers by curbs.   

According to recent census estimates, almost 1.4 million households in New York City own a car compared to 3.1 million total households.

[LesPalenik]

I'm driving an older Camry and don't drive much these days, especially in the last 2 years, so my car operational costs are very reasonable. Buying a new EV and paying higher insurance rate would be much more expensive, but if you drive a lot, the fuel and maintenance savings would quickly add up and the overall EV costs over 5 years would be lower.
 

[LesPalenik]

The current average pre-tax retail price of a medium-sized electric car is €33,300 (£28,914), compared with €18,600 for a petrol car, according to the research. In 2026, both are forecast to cost about €19,000.

By 2030, the same electric car is forecast to cost €16,300 before tax, while the petrol car would cost €19,900.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/09/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-to-produce-than-fossil-fuel-vehicles-by-2027

The latest EV prices are much higher than the ones shown in the Guardian article. The prices for new and used EV's are obscene. On Autotrader.ca there are several 2021 and 2022 Tesla Model Y cars listed for $95- $100K Cdn. Cdn list price for the basic Model Y is $77K and waiting time is over 6 months. Ford 150 Lightning platinum version and top of the line Rivian pickup trucks are around $100K US.

[Alan Klein]

I'm driving an older Camry and don't drive much these days, especially in the last 2 years, so my car operational costs are very reasonable. Buying a new EV and paying higher insurance rate would be much more expensive, but if you drive a lot, the fuel and maintenance savings would quickly add up and the overall EV costs over 5 years would be lower.
 

Why is insurance higher with Ev's?

[Alan Klein]

The latest EV prices are much higher than the ones shown in the Guardian article. The prices for new and used EV's are obscene. On Autotrader.ca there are several 2021 and 2022 Tesla Model Y cars listed for $95- $100K Cdn. Cdn list price for the basic Model Y is $77K and waiting time is over 6 months. Ford 150 Lightning platinum version and top of the line Rivian pickup trucks are around $100K US.

So what good is saving let's say $1000 a year on gas if you're paying let's say $10,000 more for an Ev over a gasoline car.  Where's the savings with electricity?

[Peter McLennan]

I've said this before and I'll say it again.  "Whatever you do, don't drive one."

[LesPalenik]

Why is insurance higher with Ev's?

Because the insurance companies can get away with it.
The good news is that Tesla insurance should be cheaper for most drivers. It is now available just in a handful of states, but it will be gradually rolled out to all states in US and hopefully also to Canada.

As to your other question about the actual operational cost savings, use the supplied calculator. The more miles you drive, the quicker the ROI.  In addition, you'll be saving on the maintenance. No oil and filter changes, less frequent brakes jobs, no belt re-tensioning, no spark plug changes, no radiator fluids and flushes, and more. Thousands of dollars saved over the life of the vehicle.

The autonomous driving option (various versions and capabilities by different brands) can make the travelling less tiring and save even your life.   

[JoeKitchen]

I've said this before and I'll say it again.  "Whatever you do, don't drive one."

Given the numbers that James provide and for travel vehicles, I, now, certainly will drive one.  It may change my mind; how negative you are!   

However, when it comes to utility/farm vehicles, the lack of hydraulic systems is a deal breaker.  In a decade, it would be nice, for utilities, but, now, for transportation, I am becoming much more open. 

[Peter McLennan]

I, now, certainly will drive one.  It may change my mind; how negative you are!   

If you read that as negative, then you missed the point entirely.

[JoeKitchen]

If you read that as negative, then you missed the point entirely.

Oh, I am negative about electric cars, but now need to test one, just to see if I suddenly have divine knowledge, which, by the way, I will realize I have always have anyway.   

No way I am letting left wing radicals come to realistic conclusions before I do.