Cars - history, now and future

[LesPalenik]

Seems that US politics and automotive news do not mix well, so I thought that a good car discussion deserves its own thread.
Munro Live just released a very interesting discussion between Sandy Munro and Al Wagner. Loaded with historical facts, their personal experiences and speculations about the near and slightly distant future, this is a video which will appeal to engineers, historians and even back seat passengers.  True history of the American cars in this under one hour long video. Many comments posted by viewers are also enlightening.

Some of the facts I never knew, were the $256 price for Ford Model T when it was first produced, Dodge Brothers dying of the Spanish Flu in 1920, and five hundred EV manufacturers in USA hundred years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fjeK2FKBjQ

[JoeKitchen]

If you really love old cars, look up the work of Michael Furman.  He is a Philly based photographer who specializes in photographing cars.  Much of his work is with cars from the 1920s through 1950s where only a hand full of each model where made. 

He has photographed cars that alone are worth more then an entire dealership. 

He also is pretty well versed in form and design, and gives a great talk when showing is work.

[LesPalenik]

If you really love old cars, look up the work of Michael Furman.  He is a Philly based photographer who specializes in photographing cars.  Much of his work is with cars from the 1920s through 1950s where only a hand full of each model where made. 

He has photographed cars that alone are worth more then an entire dealership. 

He also is pretty well versed in form and design, and gives a great talk when showing is work.

That video mentions old cars, but more as a parallel between early 1900's and 2020's. The current transition from ICE cars to EVs may be quicker than the 1900-1913 time frame changing from horse carriages to gasoline, steam and battery powered cars. Beside the historical facts they cover also latest trends in US and Chinese car manufacturing, autonomous driving, even chuckling at Biden's remarks about GM leading the electric revolution and also the future of the car dealerships.
By the way, GM led also EV production in the recent 3 months with 26 EVs. Not 260K, 26K, or 260 but full 26 cars. 25 Bolts and one Hummer. 

[JoeKitchen]

That video mentions old cars, but more as a parallel between early 1900's and 2020's. The current transition from ICE cars to EVs may be quicker than the 1900-1913 time frame changing from horse carriages to gasoline, steam and battery powered cars. Beside the historical facts they cover also latest trends in US and Chinese car manufacturing, autonomous driving, even chuckling at Biden's remarks about GM leading the electric revolution and also the future of the car dealerships.
By the way, GM led also EV production in the recent 3 months with 26 EVs. Not 260K, 26K, or 260 but full 26 cars. 25 Bolts and one Hummer.

I dont know about that. 

I was talking with my mechanic yesterday about ICE vs EV cars, and, although we both feel they drive nice, nether of us see them taking off due to the length it takes to charge the battery.  His opinion was until you can get full charging down to sub-20 minutes, it is going to be a hard sell to the average person. 

The other question I have that no one seems to provide any answers on is how much does your electric bill go up after getting an EV? 

We all know electric heat is incredibly inefficient and costly when compared to any other fuel type.  So, are you truly saving money by replacing gasoline with electricity as your transportation fuel?  Sure, gas may go up, but that is a reflection of energy going up overall, meaning electricity prices will rise in tandem. 

My wife and I are looking at buying a house with a barn (for a home studio) most of which are is areas without natural gas lines.  Lots of electric heat and stoves/ovens, which we hate, and all my research is showing that after just a few years, the cost of converting all my appliances to propane, along with buying the tank, would be covered by the decrease is fuel cost vs paying for electric.  Is it really the case that cars are the one exception where electricity is more efficient? 

Additionally, a property with a barn typically comes with a decent amount of acres and the need for a tractor.  I have been researching those as well, especially thin profile versions designed for vineyards.  Along with with needing the right amount of horse-power and hydraulics for any attachments, one of the biggest issues with tractors, it turns out, is the large rear wheels make them prone to rolling over backwards, which could kill the driver.  So, it is best to put a couple 1000 pounds of ballast on the bumpers to stabilize it, especially thinner profile versions.  A heavy duty batter would be a great solution to this problem; I have yet to see any electric tractors in my research. 

[LesPalenik]

Germany's Transport Minister Wissing warns against buying cars with combustion engines. Interestingly, in contrast to US government, Wissing is not averse talking about Tesla, moreover he recommends to Germans to buy Teslas instead of the ICE cars.

Surprisingly, Volker Wissing of the FDP party is now fully committed to battery-electric cars and rejects e-fuels.

»We have to use the various energy sources where they are most efficient. In the car, that's the electric drive," Wissing told the information service "Tagesspiegel Background".
By 2030, 15 million fully electric cars should be on Germany's roads. However, a few things still have to change for this to happen.

Wissing also sees it as a task for the German automotive industry to convince people. »Tesla has succeeded in winning over many buyers with its models, and I would like the same for German car manufacturers.«

https://www.spiegel.de/auto/volker-wissing-verkehrsminister-warnt-vor-kauf-von-autos-mit-verbrennungsmotor-a-2eda9591-7832-44be-8609-375fb89b3c5c

[LesPalenik]

The other question I have that no one seems to provide any answers on is how much does your electric bill go up after getting an EV? 

The cost of electricity for an EV depends on the state where you live and also where you charge it. If you charge it at home, it would cost you around $50-$100 a month. If you charge at highway supercharger, it would cost more, but still less than filling the car with gasoline.  If you have solar panels on your roof, you could save even more.

Here is a handy Canadian Fuel Saving Calculator
Using the Tesla Model 3 SR car for 20,000km per year I calculated savings of $2,523Cdn The savings in US would be slightly lower, since the gas is cheaper there and also the US $ is worth more.

Suppose you put 1,000 miles on your vehicle each month, for example, and pay 10 cents in your area for each kilowatt-hour of electricity. In that case, this pegs your at-home EV recharging bill at $25 to $33 per month (based on the calculation of 3 to 4 driving miles equaling one kilowatt-hour). Even if you double your electric rate to 20 cents per/kWh, your EV recharging cost will be $50 to $66.

According to AAA, the average price of gas hovers at $3.18 per gallon as of this writing. So, filling up a 12-gallon gas tank currently costs about $38.16. Things get a little tricky at this point because, as we all know, cars and trucks use vastly different amounts of fuel.

Let’s say you’re driving an economy car that brings a combined average of 30 miles per gallon during a mix of city and highway driving. Using that same 12-gallon tank as a reference point, you’ll have 360 miles of driving range for each fill-up. If you’re driving the same 1,000 miles per month, you’ll need to refuel at least three times each month and spend about $114.48 ($38.16 x 3).

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/how-much-does-it-cost-to-charge-an-ev/

As to electric tractors, one company making them is California-based Solectrac. As you say, the weight of the battery can put to good use if mounted in the front.

“The biggest problem with electric cars is the weight of the batteries,” says Heckeroth, who has a background in solar power and electric vehicles. “I realized very quickly that weight on a tractor is actually an asset that improves traction.”

“In addition to being cleaner and quieter, an electric tractor is much more efficient, since all the energy goes into work; whereas, in a diesel tractor, much of it is wasted as heat,” he explains. “In addition, maximum torque is available immediately rather than at rated engine speed. Finally, since the power source has just one moving part, they require very little maintenance. Even the batteries are projected to last 10 years, pending operating cycles and depth of discharge.”

Solectrac currently offers a 30-hp. compact and a 40-hp. utility model. The company just introduced a 70-hp. vineyard and orchard tractor, which addresses the specific needs of that specialty market with its narrow width and greater horsepower.

The other option would be a battery powered pickup truck like Rivian or Ford F150 Lighting.

https://www.agriculture.com/machinery/tractors/an-electric-tractor-may-be-in-your-future

[Alan Klein]

Seems that US politics and automotive news do not mix well, so I thought that a good car discussion deserves its own thread.
Munro Live just released a very interesting discussion between Sandy Munro and Al Wagner. Loaded with historical facts, their personal experiences and speculations about the near and slightly distant future, this is a video which will appeal to engineers, historians and even back seat passengers.  True history of the American cars in this under one hour long video. Many comments posted by viewers are also enlightening.

Some of the facts I never knew, were the $256 price for Ford Model T when it was first produced, Dodge Brothers dying of the Spanish Flu in 1920, and five hundred EV manufacturers in USA hundred years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fjeK2FKBjQ

Interesting fact about EV's around the turn of the last century. (Don't know if it's in your video. I haven't watched it.)  When Ford came out with his gasoline-fired Model T, his wife refused to drive it.  At the time, they hadn't invented the electric starter.  So you had to get in front of the car and crank the engine.  She wasn't about to do that.  So she drove Ford's competitor's electric vehicle until the battery/starter was invented and put in Ford cars.

[LesPalenik]

Interesting fact about EV's around the turn of the last century. (Don't know if it's in your video. I haven't watched it.)  When Ford came out with his gasoline-fired Model T, his wife refused to drive it.  At the time, they hadn't invented the electric starter.  So you had to get in front of the car and crank the engine.  She wasn't about to do that.  So she drove Ford's competitor's electric vehicle until the battery/starter was invented and put in Ford cars.

Yes, that video mentioned the electric cars were preferred by ladies. Apparently, at that time there were several hundred EV manufacturers. However, the batteries were heavy and  with a low driving range. So when Charles Kettering invented electric starter, that killed all EVs of that time.

[Alan Klein]

I dont know about that. 

I was talking with my mechanic yesterday about ICE vs EV cars, and, although we both feel they drive nice, nether of us see them taking off due to the length it takes to charge the battery.  His opinion was until you can get full charging down to sub-20 minutes, it is going to be a hard sell to the average person. 

The other question I have that no one seems to provide any answers on is how much does your electric bill go up after getting an EV? 

We all know electric heat is incredibly inefficient and costly when compared to any other fuel type.  So, are you truly saving money by replacing gasoline with electricity as your transportation fuel?  Sure, gas may go up, but that is a reflection of energy going up overall, meaning electricity prices will rise in tandem. 

My wife and I are looking at buying a house with a barn (for a home studio) most of which are is areas without natural gas lines.  Lots of electric heat and stoves/ovens, which we hate, and all my research is showing that after just a few years, the cost of converting all my appliances to propane, along with buying the tank, would be covered by the decrease is fuel cost vs paying for electric.  Is it really the case that cars are the one exception where electricity is more efficient? 

Additionally, a property with a barn typically comes with a decent amount of acres and the need for a tractor.  I have been researching those as well, especially thin profile versions designed for vineyards.  Along with with needing the right amount of horse-power and hydraulics for any attachments, one of the biggest issues with tractors, it turns out, is the large rear wheels make them prone to rolling over backwards, which could kill the driver.  So, it is best to put a couple 1000 pounds of ballast on the bumpers to stabilize it, especially thinner profile versions.  A heavy duty batter would be a great solution to this problem; I have yet to see any electric tractors in my research. 

As more an more electric vehicles go on the road, central power production for electricity will have to be increased.  Electric costs will go up also as demand increases.

MY cousin who lives in Westchester County New York for 35 years built her house all-electric.  Con Ed the NY utility was offering big discounts at the time and rebates if you did so.  Now she's paying 2x-3x times to heat her house and run it as other similar-sized homes running on oil or natural gas.  She's so sorry she ever did it.  She can't replace it with natural gas because there are no gas lines in her neighborhood.

Just coincidentally, the NYS just passed a law that requires electric heating, hot water, and cooking equipment in all new homes.  Sound's like my cousin all over again.  Worse still, is you have no choice.  What do you think is going to happen to electric rates when that demand is added?  It will kill new construction and major renovations to existing homes.  More government silliness.

[Alan Klein]

Yes, that video mentioned the electric cars were preferred by ladies. Apparently, at that time there were several hundred EV manufacturers. However, the batteries were heavy and  with a low driving range. So when Charles Kettering invented electric starter, that killed all EVs of that time.

Why did it kill EV's? Could it be that it took too long to charge an EV and that the range was too short?   

[LesPalenik]

Why did it kill EV's? Could it be that it took too long to charge an EV and that the range was too short? 

The batteries at that time had low capacity, were heavy and expensive. The gas engines were relatively light and the electric starter made it more convenient to start them, so the buyers stopped buying the electric cars.

[Alan Klein]

The batteries at that time had low capacity, were heavy and expensive. The gas engines were relatively light and the electric starter made it more convenient to start them, so the buyers stopped buying the electric cars.

What's changed?

[Robert Roaldi]

Slightly off-topic but I just came across this Volvo ad on Vimeo, . It's about 2 min long.

[Alan Klein]

Slightly off-topic but I just came across this Volvo ad on Vimeo, . It's about 2 min long.

I was waiting for something funny and was disappointed. 

[Robert Roaldi]

I was waiting for something funny and was disappointed.

Sorry, you'll have to take that up with Volvo.

[Alan Klein]

Sorry, you'll have to take that up with Volvo.

Actually it's interesting that they're going all electric.  What's the time frame?  I think there are other manufacturers who promised the same thing. Aren't they putting their necks out, at least until battery longevity and charging stations are more common, and the price of batteries declines more?

[LesPalenik]

What's changed?

To save on weight, you could use a coiled spring or a bunch of elastics to propel the vehicle. The lithium based batteries are much lighter than the old lead acid batteries. At present, most EVs still use a conventional lead acid battery in addition to the main battery, but soon they will replace also this battery with a lighter lithium based power source.

[Robert Roaldi]

Actually it's interesting that they're going all electric.  What's the time frame?  I think there are other manufacturers who promised the same thing. Aren't they putting their necks out, at least until battery longevity and charging stations are more common, and the price of batteries declines more?

You say that as if EVs are still a long way off. While you weren't paying attention, they became mainstream. I read somewhere that something like 30% of all cars in Norway are EVs, and ICE will be banned soon. I believe that's true of other countries. We're not at the proto-type test phase anymore.

[LesPalenik]

Slightly off-topic but I just came across this Volvo ad on Vimeo]. It's about 2 min long.

Volvo is not the safest car any longer.

The model S is "faster than any Porsche, safer than any Volvo," said Musk, wearing a black leather jacket, after he drove the Model S Plaid down a test track onto the stage.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/this-car-crushes-elon-musk-says-tesla-model-s-plaid-is-faster-than-porsche-safer-than-volvo/articleshow/83425983.cms?

[Alan Klein]

You say that as if EVs are still a long way off. While you weren't paying attention, they became mainstream. I read somewhere that something like 30% of all cars in Norway are EVs, and ICE will be banned soon. I believe that's true of other countries. We're not at the proto-type test phase anymore.

But Norway is a little country with a population of 5 million about equal to Brooklyn and Queens.  How far do they drive?  So what might be good for Volvo, might not be good for GM or Ford who supplies cars in America with 330 million people and millions of square miles in its territory.  Maybe Volvo will survive on all-electric or they might have to backtrack a little until humanity catches up. 

What we need is a design that uses sea water.