Afghanistan

[Manoli]

TechTalk's efforts to relativize Biden's staggering transfer of armaments to the enemy reminds me of the following meme:

How to trivialise a serious topic.

Just curious what your tolerance level is for juvenile knee-jerk posts lacking any substantive depth before allowing the "discussion" to migrate to the swamp where it belongs.

Not convinced about ‘migrating’ but certainly a ‘pause’ is called for.
Let us hope the evacuation completes with no further casualties.

[LesPalenik]

While some freedom fighters are engaging in Internet pissing contests, here is a recent story how one concerned and commited man helped several Afghan families to escape from Afghanistan  to Pakistan using his own money, bunch of willing strangers and social media. Dave Lee is a well known youtuber concentrating on investment topics and Tesla technology.
Duration: 1 hour, well worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URZ-JMYi-DQ

[TechTalk]

The story (linked above) of Shogofa's family and their first attempts to cross the border into Pakistan, while her mother and siblings were sick, was a reminder that among the problems in Afghanistan, they are experiencing a major third wave of COVID. The story was also a reminder that the population of Afghanistan consists of many different ethnic groups, subcultures, and languages.

This National Geographic map of ethnic regions in Afghanistan and Pakistan is illustrative of the complexity of that region. When you hear or see news reports for instance that refer to the "Pashtun Region", the map illustrates that one ethnic group dominates a major portion of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Further south, the Baloch ethnic group dominates the southern border regions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran.

Ethnic groups that span national borders are found more broadly throughout all of the Middle East. For an even more thorough examination of the complex history and current ethnic and political borders of the Middle East there is the Vox article 40 maps that explain the Middle East.

The resulting tensions and wars, both civil and cross border, are not unique to the Middle East. The 20th Century gave us multiple wars in Europe enflamed by ethnic border tensions or minorities within states, and some of those tensions still linger. Slobodan is likely much more aware of this than anyone else here. I mention this only for those that may think that people living in the Middle East are somehow different in that regard. And since I mentioned Slobodan, I'll just say for the record that even when I think that he's utterly and completely wrong or has a blind spot on some topic, I do respect his intelligence even when we totally disagree.

[Manoli]

For those interested in watching the proceedings ‘live’, below is a link to the UK parliament feed of the special session of the FAC (Foreign Affairs Committee).  Scheduled to commence at 2:00 pm, London time.

The UK Parliament was recalled for an urgent debate on the Afghan crisis back in August. On Wednesday, September 1 , the UK Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, will be questioned by a cross-party committee of MPs , chaired by Tom Tugendhat. Expected to be a lively session, Raab is not someone who currently enjoys an excess of respect or support.

One interesting point which may possibly be raised is why Biden ‘allegedly’ refused to take Johnson’s calls for 36 hours during the evacuation. Unsure at what point during the evacuation this occurred, if indeed it did, but it isn’t helping that illusory ‘special relationship’

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/44d918e3-3be5-41ae-994b-d6384a554327

[Manoli]

On another note:

Campaigners tonight say it is believed only half of the 69 female Afghan MPs made it out of the country. The rest are still there and in hiding, after not been offered an evacuation place (7)

Many of these women spent 20 years being the Taliban’s most vocal critics. One UK MP has spoken to a female Afghan MP. She says she is now in her 3rd safe house with her husband and children. The Taliban raided her home in Kabul, destroyed everything and hung her dog.

She is certain to be killed if the Taliban find her. "Shooting is the best she can hope for, but they will brutalise her first," the UK MP says. Her only hope now is a visa to the UK and safe passage out. But despite repeated pleas, the Home Office have failed to issue one

It seems inexplicable why this female Afghan MP and her 68 colleagues weren’t put to the top of the evacuation lists. Lawyers have set a 2pm deadline tomorrow for visas or they will begin legal action under Art 2, ECHR, to force them.

Source: Tom Newton-Dunn
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1432824522646904835?s=21

[Alan Klein]

While some freedom fighters are engaging in Internet pissing contests, here is a recent story how one concerned and commited man helped several Afghan families to escape from Afghanistan  to Pakistan using his own money, bunch of willing strangers and social media. Dave Lee is a well known youtuber concentrating on investment topics and Tesla technology.
Duration: 1 hour, well worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URZ-JMYi-DQ

It's embarrassing as an American that private individuals are doing more than my government. I just hope the Taliban doesn't implement harsh penalties against their former enemies.  Can we expect to find a Lincoln among them who pardoned the South at the end of our own Civil War and invited them back into the union again as brothers?  The nature of Afghan tribal animosities makes that unlikely. But let's hope they have changed at least somewhat.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

On another note...

Yes, the plight of women in Afghanistan, that is, those that do not want a Taliban/Sharia rule, is terrible and I do feel sorry for them on an individual level.

However... is it really the West that needed to take care of them? Should we be the last ones to be concerned about their fate and safety? Each of these women has a brother, father, son, or husband that should be concerned much more than us and fight for their safety and future. Each of the 300,000  strong military and security men has a sister, daughter, wife, or mother to fight for. And they had everything material they needed to do so. And yet...

[Chris Kern]

. . . is it really the West that needed to take care of them? Should we be the last ones to be concerned about their fate and safety?

Be careful!  You're sounding suspiciously like Biden.

[Manoli]

And yet...

Should they be more concerned than us ? The failure is ours.

We can and will touch on why the Afghan army and security services dispersed so quickly, but that does not serve as an excuse let alone justification for NATO to simply wash its hands and abandon the many Afghans who looked upon the West for salvation, took us at our word, adapted to our way of life. Many Afghans, not just the females, have every justification to feel abandoned.

Vast amounts of cash were spent to prop up the occupation and convince Afghans that NATO would create a democracy proofed against resurgent Islamic fundamentalism. Many have never known anything other than our Western values - so having a parent, a sibling or other relative doesn’t shift the moral obligation.

To paraphrase JFK ‘Victory has many parents, defeat is an orphan’.  When things went well, the west trumpeted its values and we congratulated and lauded ourselves ad infinitum. The political slogans triggered the downfall. 

So, yes, we should ‘be concerned with their safety’.

[Peter McLennan]

Nobody said the troops were there on 1/6. However, the troops were there throughout the rest of January.

Read your graphic.

The screen cap says “number of troops deployed…to protect against flag waving Trump supporters.”

Clearly attempting to indicate Jan 06.

[Alan Klein]

Should they be more concerned than us ? The failure is ours.

We can and will touch on why the Afghan army and security services dispersed so quickly, but that does not serve as an excuse let alone justification for NATO to simply wash its hands and abandon the many Afghans who looked upon the West for salvation, took us at our word, adapted to our way of life. Many Afghans, not just the females, have every justification to feel abandoned.

Vast amounts of cash were spent to prop up the occupation and convince Afghans that NATO would create a democracy proofed against resurgent Islamic fundamentalism. Many have never known anything other than our Western values - so having a parent, a sibling or other relative doesn’t shift the moral obligation.

To paraphrase JFK ‘Victory has many parents, defeat is an orphan’.  When things went well, the west trumpeted its values and we congratulated and lauded ourselves ad infinitum. The political slogans triggered the downfall. 

So, yes, we should ‘be concerned with their safety’.

I don't think the failure is ours. We tried for twenty years.  But in the end, they apparently weren't interested in defending what we gave them.  That's on them, not us.  We do owe protection to the people who worked with us because their lives are at stake and we made promises to them.  But for the rest, who are not threatened by the Taliban, they'll have to live with the society they chose until they're ready to fight for something different.

[Manoli]

I don't think the failure is ours. We tried for twenty years.  But in the end, they apparently weren't interested in defending what we gave them.   

The drawdown of the Afghan military and security services is very much a ‘to be reviewed’ subject.

Robert Roaldi posted a link in #31 to an interview with a retired UK general where he made the point subsequently seconded by others , General Petraeus included, that the Afghan army and security personnel lost X5 the deaths, x3 the casualties of the NATO forces and gave a different perspective on the drawdown.

I’d warn against adopting such simplistic and convenient reasoning until a full post mortem has been held.

But for the rest, who are not threatened by the Taliban, they'll have to live with the society they chose until they're ready to fight for something different.

The great majority, if not all , didn’t choose, they were born into it.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Read your graphic.

The screen cap says “number of troops deployed…to protect against flag waving Trump supporters.”

Clearly attempting to indicate Jan 06.

No.

If you remember correctly, the troops were brought in and kept there for almost a month IN FEAR of another protest and potential rioting by Trump supporters during Biden's inauguration. That's what the meme indicates. Otherwise, it would be really stupid to imply 1/6, as everyone knows there were no troops on that day, not in any significant number or at critical locations anyway.

[Robert Roaldi]

...  But in the end, they apparently weren't interested in defending what we gave them.  ...

Did they ask you to give them anything? Just sayin'. 

It's difficult not to be cynical here. Whatever it was you "gave them" over 20 years, it did not include an honest government or a rebuilt nation. If what you "gave them" had been more enduring, would it have collapsed this quickly? I think it's difficult to claim that what you "gave them" was very good. This somehow reminds me of those absurd dog and pony shows of drug and arms busts on the part of law enforcement, when everyone knows that boatloads of the stuff makes it to customers every day. My point is, if it's not obvious, what's real here and what's self-delusion?

How much of the reconstruction money went to rebuild the human infrastructure in Afghanistan and how much went into the pockets of US contractors? I don't know the answer to that question, but shouldn't the question be asked? Until you get an answer you can trust, it might be premature to assume that you "gave them" anything.



And not in answer to your post but more generally, I appreciate the concern over Afghani women. I even believe that there are some people who actually care, but I also believe that much of what we see in the media is the usual partisan politicking too, and good luck separating out the motives. The thing is, what about the women in Saudi Arabia? Or Palestine? Or Yemen? Or the ones in Iran before the US helped overthrow the government there, which led to the Shah, which led to the fundamentalist "revolution/takeover"? Don't those women count? (And to be polite and to keep the thread on topic, I'll leave out the fate of women in the US who happen to live in states that for largely religious/political reasons are passing regulations that affect their reproduction rights.)
 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Should they be more concerned than us ? The failure is ours.

We can and will touch on why the Afghan army and security services dispersed so quickly, but that does not serve as an excuse let alone justification for NATO to simply wash its hands and abandon the many Afghans who looked upon the West for salvation, took us at our word, adapted to our way of life. Many Afghans, not just the females, have every justification to feel abandoned.

Vast amounts of cash were spent to prop up the occupation and convince Afghans that NATO would create a democracy proofed against resurgent Islamic fundamentalism. Many have never known anything other than our Western values - so having a parent, a sibling or other relative doesn’t shift the moral obligation.

To paraphrase JFK ‘Victory has many parents, defeat is an orphan’.  When things went well, the west trumpeted its values and we congratulated and lauded ourselves ad infinitum. The political slogans triggered the downfall. 

So, yes, we should ‘be concerned with their safety’.

As you are probably well aware, not only victory has many parents etc., but also truth has many facets. One of those angles is what you wrote above, and I actually tend to agree with that, up to a point. That point being that such a view is not an exclusive one, but just one of the many facets of a complex problem.

In other words, both my angle and your angle could stand, without cancelling each other.

I still believe that it is a primary responsibility of a country's population to fight for and defend the way of life they want. Especially if they are given means to do so.

[Alan Klein]

Did they ask you to give them anything? Just sayin'. 

It's difficult not to be cynical here. Whatever it was you "gave them" over 20 years, it did not include an honest government or a rebuilt nation. If what you "gave them" had been more enduring, would it have collapsed this quickly? I think it's difficult to claim that what you "gave them" was very good. This somehow reminds me of those absurd dog and pony shows of drug and arms busts on the part of law enforcement, when everyone knows that boatloads of the stuff makes it to customers every day. My point is, if it's not obvious, what's real here and what's self-delusion?

How much of the reconstruction money went to rebuild the human infrastructure in Afghanistan and how much went into the pockets of US contractors? I don't know the answer to that question, but shouldn't the question be asked? Until you get an answer you can trust, it might be premature to assume that you "gave them" anything.



And not in answer to your post but more generally, I appreciate the concern over Afghani women. I even believe that there are some people who actually care, but I also believe that much of what we see in the media is the usual partisan politicking too, and good luck separating out the motives. The thing is, what about the women in Saudi Arabia? Or Palestine? Or Yemen? Or the ones in Iran before the US helped overthrow the government there, which led to the Shah, which led to the fundamentalist "revolution/takeover"? Don't those women count? (And to be polite and to keep the thread on topic, I'll leave out the fate of women in the US who happen to live in states that for largely religious/political reasons are passing regulations that affect their reproduction rights.)
 

America didn't have to give them squat.  We went there in arms because they attacked us in war on 9-11.  They used their land as a staging ground to attack us.  They protected the very terrorist groups and leader, Osama Bin Laden, who organized the attack and then Afghanistan continued to protect them afterwards.  We owed them nothing.  You're forgetting why we were there.  The only ones we owe protection to are the Afghans who personally supported us in arms and their families.  In any case it was Biden who pulled out all our military that could protect them.  What can we do once our military is gone?   

We spent a trillion dollars trying to give them democracy and enlighten their culture.   We gave them billions to improve their country and defend themselves against the same terrorists.  If there was corruption, and there was, most of it was Afghans who stole half the money we gave them.  The president ran away at the first sign of danger with over $100 million in cash.  In the end, they weren't willing to fight for what we gave them.  That's unfortunate and I feel sorry for the many Afghans who will now suffer.  But they didn't step up to the plate.  The Taliban walked-in into Kabul without firing a shot.  The Afghan army layed down their arms and uniforms and walked away. Maybe the men are happy with their women covered up. I don't know.  But they didn't feel it was worth fighting for.  So how much can we do? 

[Robert Roaldi]

America didn't have to give them squat.  We went there in arms because they attacked us in war on 9-11.  They used their land as a staging ground to attack us.  They protected the very terrorist groups and leader, Osama Bin Laden, who organized the attack and then Afghanistan continued to protect them afterwards.  We owed them nothing.  You're forgetting why we were there.  The only ones we owe protection to are the Afghans who personally supported us in arms and their families.  In any case it was Biden who pulled out all our military that could protect them.  What can we do once our military is gone?   

We spent a trillion dollars trying to give them democracy and enlighten their culture.   We gave them billions to improve their country and defend themselves against the same terrorists.  If there was corruption, and there was, most of it was Afghans who stole half the money we gave them.  The president ran away at the first sign of danger with over $100 million in cash.  In the end, they weren't willing to fight for what we gave them.  That's unfortunate and I feel sorry for the many Afghans who will now suffer.  But they didn't step up to the plate.  The Taliban walked-in into Kabul without firing a shot.  The Afghan army layed down their arms and uniforms and walked away. Maybe the men are happy with their women covered up. I don't know.  But they didn't feel it was worth fighting for.  So how much can we do?

I was suggesting that what you think you "gave them" wasn't what you actually "gave them" but that didn't penetrate the force field and we talked past each other. It's ok, it doesn't matter.

Love your phrase "We spent a trillion dollars trying to give them democracy and enlighten their culture." Judging from the recent political climate, I would suggest spending some on yourselves for the same reasons.

Here's someone else's view, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/11/harvard-professor-stephen-walt-urges-shift-in-u-s-foreign-policy/.

[Alan Klein]

I was suggesting that what you think you "gave them" wasn't what you actually "gave them" but that didn't penetrate the force field and we talked past each other. It's ok, it doesn't matter.

Love your phrase "We spent a trillion dollars trying to give them democracy and enlighten their culture." Judging from the recent political climate, I would suggest spending some on yourselves for the same reasons.

Here's someone else's view, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/11/harvard-professor-stephen-walt-urges-shift-in-u-s-foreign-policy/.

Nation building and spreading American culture is a favorite pastime of us dreamy Americans, especially after we blow the place up.  In the old days, conquerors would kill all the men and enslave all the women and children to assure their old adversary wouldn't come back.  Because we're civilized today and don't do those things, wars never end.  "I'll be back" is not only the phrase of humanoids from the future.  It seems our enemies never die.

You think we would have learned from Vietnam.  But that was an older generation although both Trump and Biden remember it well.  They both agreed we didn't belong in Afghanistan.  Maybe we should have just leveled Afghan cities, and air fields, and killed all their leaders, but not getting involved beyond that.  Leave their nation in cinders.  Then we wouldn't hear from them again for two hundred years, save a trillion and countless American lives, and save other lives too.  Our wars are too antiseptic today and never end as we fight insurgencies with one hand tied behind our back and nation build.  What a waste.  We never learn. 

[James Clark]

Here's someone else's view, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/11/harvard-professor-stephen-walt-urges-shift-in-u-s-foreign-policy/.

That's a depressing way to look at how the world works.  I take issue with one question/response in particular:

GAZETTE: Is there a danger that if the U.S. shifts to a more restrained foreign policy, the vacuum would be filled by nations that do not support liberal values?

WALT: I think that idea is mistaken. The United States has not been able to dictate politics in many parts of the world, despite repeated and sometimes costly efforts. As powerful as we are, we don’t control the evolution of local politics and political alignments in most of the world. We have some influence, but we have not been able to dictate what happens in the Middle East, we can’t determine the fate of Afghanistan after 17 years of war, we have not been able to steer the politics of a country like Hungary or Poland, which are moving in an illiberal direction. If the world’s most powerful country cannot do that, then other countries are not going to be able to do that either. We can do a lot to shape the balance of power in critical areas, but our ability to mold the politics of these regions and tell other countries how to organize their societies is very limited.

Walt says no, but I think the answer is overwhelmingly "yes," and while I understand the "realpolitik" of it all, I'm not sure it's wise to totally give up on western idealism.  He says that we, "...can’t determine the fate of Afghanistan after 17 years of war, we have not been able to steer the politics of a country like Hungary or Poland, which are moving in an illiberal direction.."   

I would disagree that we couldn't determine the fate of Afghanistan - we simply didn't want to pay the price anymore.  The fact remains, for example, that women in Afghanistan WERE in the workforce, WERE in universities, WERE in government. We DID steer the politics of Afghanistan in a positive direction, all thanks to what, at the end, really was a fairly small presence - smaller or on par with the people we have stationed in multiple other places around the globe. Imagine what could have happened if we'd allowed this generation of Afghani people to rise into positions of leadership, instead of throwing them back under the boot of religious fundamentalism.

As for steering the politics of Poland or Hungary (or Turkey), yes, there are limits when dealing with a nominally democratic nation that simply votes "wrong." And while I'm not sure that the slide of those three nations toward a more authoritarian bent is indicative of a failure of American foreign policy, I AM sure that disengagement from the EU, and the corresponding removal of the financial and cultural influence we DO maintain there isn't going to stop the slide into "illiberalism."  (Edit:  That assumes, of course, that what we are "selling" is in fact positive, and not, instead, tacit support for radical nationalism.)

[Alan Klein]

That's a depressing way to look at how the world works.  I take issue with one question/response in particular:

Walt says no, but I think the answer is overwhelmingly "yes," and while I understand the "realpolitik" of it all, I'm not sure it's wise to totally give up on western idealism.  He says that we, "...can’t determine the fate of Afghanistan after 17 years of war, we have not been able to steer the politics of a country like Hungary or Poland, which are moving in an illiberal direction.."   

I would disagree that we couldn't determine the fate of Afghanistan - we simply didn't want to pay the price anymore.  The fact remains, for example, that women in Afghanistan WERE in the workforce, WERE in universities, WERE in government. We DID steer the politics of Afghanistan in a positive direction, all thanks to what, at the end, really was a fairly small presence - smaller or on par with the people we have stationed in multiple other places around the globe. Imagine what could have happened if we'd allowed this generation of Afghani people to rise into positions of leadership, instead of throwing them back under the boot of religious fundamentalism.

As for steering the politics of Poland or Hungary (or Turkey), yes, there are limits when dealing with a nominally democratic nation that simply votes "wrong." And while I'm not sure that the slide of those three nations toward a more authoritarian bent is indicative of a failure of American foreign policy, I AM sure that disengagement from the EU, and the corresponding removal of the financial and cultural influence we DO maintain there isn't going to stop the slide into "illiberalism."  (Edit:  That assumes, of course, that what we are "selling" is in fact positive, and not, instead, tacit support for radical nationalism.)

James, You're swaying me back to nation building.  But we always seem to get into a mess when we do.  Nation building only seems to work  in total war like WWII in Japan and Germany and then when we leave troops.  Of course, I wonder what would happen if we pulled out?  As far as paying the price, the fact is we can't afford it anymore.  At one time we were the world's leading creditor nation.  Now we're the world's leading debtor nation, $30 trillion in debt at home.  We're printing 55% of the money we use in our budget.  We're broke.  Americans are tired of their sons, and now daughters, bleeding and dying.  We're still embarrassed by losing and offended by cowardly acts, regardless the cost.  Hence the neurotic bi-polar reaction to what just happened in Afghanistan.