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Author Topic: Withdrawal from Afghanistan  (Read 3145 times)

sf

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Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« on: April 16, 2021, 02:40:35 pm »

I see the Taliban are claiming that Biden's decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, just before the 20th anniversary of 9/11, means that they have won. What do people here think? Can the Afghan government defend itself?

S

(I realize this is politics, but as the vaccine thread is now almost pure politics and as Jeremy Russack isn't the moderator any more, I think it's OK. I suppose someone will delete or lock this thread if I am wrong.)
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LesPalenik

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2021, 03:08:32 pm »

It was an unwinnable war.
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kers

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2021, 07:22:42 am »

+1
Now Aghanistan will back fighting with their own. It is a tribal country. I don't suspect it will be a land in peace soon.
For women it is back to square one, i am afraid.
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David Sutton

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2021, 09:48:50 pm »

But leaving behind 18,000 US special forces, mercenaries and intel operatives.
Not leaving, just privatising?
As usual, there's money to made in misery.
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John Camp

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2021, 10:16:09 pm »

As far as I can tell, only one American soldier was killed as a result of hostile action in Afghanistan in 2020, although I suspect there might be others who were killed by hostile action in with intelligence and mercenary forces, and aren't reported. Given the number of troops there, they were probably safer than they would be driving around the American south, since they tend to be risk-takers.

The biggest problem with Afghanistan from an American perspective was the cost, not the lives, at least, not in the last few years. There were fewer American death in Afghanistan in 2020 than there were in the Indianapolis murders yesterday. A progressive would tell you that the money would be much better spent in American communities rather than in a war in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of American troops could possibly lead to a catastrophe, like the one that followed the American departure from Vietnam. However a column on the subject in either the Washington Post or the NYT suggested that the modernization of Afghanistan since the American occupation will make it much more difficult for the Taliban to effectively take over and rule, as millions of people won't want to go back to what was essentially a religion-based rural and tribal economy before the American intervention -- that is, that the Afghani government may be better positioned to resist than it once was, because of support in the major cities.

So, we shall see. I have a feeling that, on balance, withdrawal will be eventually seen as a mistake. I'm very aware that I could be wrong.
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David Sutton

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2021, 11:04:18 pm »

Hard to know.
The Taliban are after all, a US creation.
The US armed and financed them during the Russian occupation.
If my memory serves me right, the Taliban were nicely self-destructing over questions like the right beard length for a revolutionary, when the US sent in ground troops. Thus ensuring their revival. I can't recall what resources the US were after there.
I hope the country finds peace.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2021, 11:13:17 pm »

We should impress upon the Taliban if they do anything again to harm Americans or support others who would, that we'll be back again in force to finish them off this time.

faberryman

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2021, 09:02:03 am »

We should impress upon the Taliban if they do anything again to harm Americans or support others who would, that we'll be back again in force to finish them off this time.

I am sure that will have them quaking in their boots.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2021, 09:12:30 am »

I am sure that will have them quaking in their boots.

That's funny. An hour ago I meant to write the same, just using the word "shaking." We do agree sometimes ;)

faberryman

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2021, 09:45:11 am »

That's funny. An hour ago I meant to write the same, just using the word "shaking." We do agree sometimes ;)

It's all about finding common ground. ;)
« Last Edit: April 18, 2021, 10:13:53 am by faberryman »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2021, 11:50:34 am »

I am sure that will have them quaking in their boots.
Well, Biden pulling out just like Obama pulled out of Iraq, isn;t going to make the quake at all.  The only thing we can hope for now is that they'll spend their time trying to recover and keep power for themselves and not get distracted by Bin Laden types.

Curious that we haven't heard from anyone here who wanted America to bleed to help the Kurds but seem to be willing to abandon Afghanistan. 

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2021, 12:49:35 pm »

Well, Biden pulling out just like Obama pulled out of Iraq, isn;t going to make the quake at all.  The only thing we can hope for now is that they'll spend their time trying to recover and keep power for themselves and not get distracted by Bin Laden types.

Curious that we haven't heard from anyone here who wanted America to bleed to help the Kurds but seem to be willing to abandon Afghanistan.

You shouldn't jump to conclusions, it's the weekend and forum participation seems to decline then, I think.

The only reaction I have to your comments is that after who knows how many decades of war, I doubt a stern talking to will have much effect in Afghanistan. I assume that you're referring to El Qaeda training camps on Afghani soil when you speak of their doing or supporting harm to Americans. It was never clear to me that Afghanistan was ever really much of a political entity, and it has been often referred as a tribal place by people who know more than me about it (almost everyone), so when you say "...finish them off this time", it's not clear who you might mean by "them". If one "tribal warlord" (if that is a relevant description) cuts a deal with El Qaeda to rent them some land, what point is served by punishing the rest of the "country"? What influence would the country have to begin with? The last time I read anything lengthy about the current Afghan government, I was left with the impression that it did not actually control much territory. So if in some future you posit, US troops go back there to "finish them off" who are they going to shoot at? I mean, they've had 20 years to figure that out by now, what would be different next time?

If US troops leave and a disaster does unfold, then that does not say much for the stability of the place, nor does it say much about what foreign involvement has accomplished there. But only time will tell about that.
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faberryman

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2021, 01:08:46 pm »

Well, Biden pulling out just like Obama pulled out of Iraq, isn;t going to make the quake at all.  The only thing we can hope for now is that they'll spend their time trying to recover and keep power for themselves and not get distracted by Bin Laden types.

Who is they, their, and themselves?

Curious that we haven't heard from anyone here who wanted America to bleed to help the Kurds but seem to be willing to abandon Afghanistan.

It's not that curious. Who wants to get into all that with you again? 
« Last Edit: April 18, 2021, 03:51:05 pm by faberryman »
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degrub

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2021, 01:09:44 pm »

these tribal suppression wars have been going on since the British Raj and probably before that.
As Russia and now the US have proved, no one is going to "tame" the tribes.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2021, 01:15:36 pm »

You shouldn't jump to conclusions, it's the weekend and forum participation seems to decline then, I think.

The only reaction I have to your comments is that after who knows how many decades of war, I doubt a stern talking to will have much effect in Afghanistan. I assume that you're referring to El Qaeda training camps on Afghani soil when you speak of their doing or supporting harm to Americans. It was never clear to me that Afghanistan was ever really much of a political entity, and it has been often referred as a tribal place by people who know more than me about it (almost everyone), so when you say "...finish them off this time", it's not clear who you might mean by "them". If one "tribal warlord" (if that is a relevant description) cuts a deal with El Qaeda to rent them some land, what point is served by punishing the rest of the "country"? What influence would the country have to begin with? The last time I read anything lengthy about the current Afghan government, I was left with the impression that it did not actually control much territory. So if in some future you posit, US troops go back there to "finish them off" who are they going to shoot at? I mean, they've had 20 years to figure that out by now, what would be different next time?

If US troops leave and a disaster does unfold, then that does not say much for the stability of the place, nor does it say much about what foreign involvement has accomplished there. But only time will tell about that.
When 9-11 occurred, the Taliban was in charge of the government and a lot of the Afghan territory generally and the area where Al Khaida, Bin Laden and their training camps were located.  Before we attacked, we "requested" the Taliban turn them over to us,  They refused and continued to back them.  So we went to war. Hopefully, they learned that wasn't a good idea after fighting us for 20 years and won't do it again.  Since we're leaving, just a reminder to them not to repeat that mistake again.  If they do, we'll be back.

As far as what happens there now, whether they will keep their "freedoms", or allow the Taliban to take over again, it's up to them.  We can't stay there forever.  Of course, it's being debated that we may open the territory for another ISIS as what happened when we pulled out of Iraq.  That's a possibility.  I guess Americans are tired and broke and just don't want to bleed for others all the time to make their nations "safe for democracy". Maybe tribal organizations and religious governments are best for some people. Who are we to decide? However, I could see some of them fleeing across our southern border pretty soon.

Alan Klein

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2021, 01:21:25 pm »

It's not that curious. Who wants to get into all that with you again? 
If Biden pulled out of the Kurdish issue, you would have supported it.  If Trump pulled out of Afghanistan, you would have opposed it.  It never had anything to do with helping the poor Kurds or Afghans, only domestic politics. 

faberryman

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2021, 01:23:32 pm »

When 9-11 occurred, the Taliban was in charge of the government and a lot of the Afghan territory generally and the area where Al Khaida, Bin Laden and their training camps were located.  Before we attacked, we "requested" the Taliban turn them over to us,  They refused and continued to back them.  So we went to war. Hopefully, they learned that wasn't a good idea after fighting us for 20 years and won't do it again.  Since we're leaving, just a reminder to them not to repeat that mistake again.  If they do, we'll be back.

Maybe that's what we should have told the North Vietnamese when we pulled out of Saigon.
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faberryman

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2021, 01:27:09 pm »

If Biden pulled out of the Kurdish issue, you would have supported it.  If Trump pulled out of Afghanistan, you would have opposed it.  It never had anything to do with helping the poor Kurds or Afghans, only domestic politics.

You are just projecting your behavior onto us. Since that it what you would do, it must be what everyone would do. It leads to underestimating your opponents. You don't consider all of the other strategies they might employ.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2021, 01:52:50 pm by faberryman »
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degrub

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2021, 01:36:12 pm »

Maybe that's what we should have told the North Vietnamese when we pulled out of Saigon.

and now we are doing quite a business with Vietnam. Won't happen in Afghanistan due to the frozen in time culture represented by the Taliban and other tribes.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Withdrawal from Afghanistan
« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2021, 01:43:11 pm »

Maybe that's what we should have told the North Vietnamese when we pulled out of Saigon.
North Vietnam never attacked us unlike Afghanistan and AL Khaida on 9-11.  The Tonkin Bay incident, when North Vietnamese ships supposedly attacked ours,  was a lie made up by democrat President Johnson as an excuse to go to war with North Vietnam. For some reason, Johnson felt the need to continue with former President Kennedy's bellicosity regarding NV. Maybe he felt guilty becoming president when Kennedy was assassinated. By the time we pulled out of Saigon, congress stopped funding the South and threw them to the wolves.  Many people didn't care by then. Many Americans did, however, and thought they would take over as some are claiming now about the Taliban.  I guess Americans don't care anymore about the Afghans either.  It's not our problem. 
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