Last though, you posted that data in response to my statement that C-19 for sub-45 year olds is about as deadly as the flu in a typical year as if I was wrong. But your data, compared to the total USA population of 0 to 50 year olds, shows only slightly higher of a percentage (0.02385% vs 0.02%) of that group has died of C-19 then what we would expect in a typical flu year. Would you care to respond to this point specifically?
Specifically? Sure. Let's start with your previous post on the subject. I'll insert some comments [in brackets] and go from there. Perhaps by breaking it down into the various
individual and differing types of statistical measurement, you and others can see the deception you're selling. It's actually similar in some respects to the way that you screwed up the NYC vaccination demographic statistics that you posted earlier.
Fourth, and let's do some math, 0 through 49 deaths are 50,491 [This is the Total Mortality for the entire population of that group for that period], which is 6.6% percent of all of the deaths so far from Covid. Out of the entire USA population of 0 to 49 year olds (about 211.6M), that is just 0.02385% [This is the Mortality Rate (MR) for COVID-19 for the entire population of that group for that period], which is ... wait for it ... similar to the fatality rate of the flu for those under 45 of 0.02% [This is the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for flu which is always a much higher percentage than the Mortality Rate as it only includes estimated or reported cases of disease and not the entire population—taking the same number of fatalities as a percentage of a smaller number (cases of disease) rather than the total population group as a whole]. Sure, not a perfect compaison [sic] since not everyone 0 to 49 have caught C-19 [This would be the Estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), deaths relative to an estimate of all infections comprising asymptomatic cases as well as severity of any level (the total estimate of all asymptomatic, mild symptomatic, severe symptomatic and fatal cases combined). IFR can only be estimated due to lack of testing for the entire population set being considered.], but all data is showing significantly more then half. [More on all of this deceptive mixing of statistics and added misinformation below.]
So, you take the Mortality Rate (MR) for COVID-19, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for flu, toss in a reference to Estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), put them all in a bag and mix them together to demonstrate your commanding knowledge of statistics and epidemiology. Let's continue to examine your lecture professor.
If you want to make comparisons of COVID-19 and flu fatality rates, I suggest that you stick to comparing mortality rate to mortality rate and case fatality rate to case fatality rate. When you don't it looks foolish as well as deceptive. For instance, here's
a link from last year to a chart showing CFR for flu (which shows a 0.2% for ages 18-49 like you do) to CFR for COVID-19 which is much higher (vastly greater depending on age range). This chart is from June 23, 2020 and is not meant to reflect current data. It's just an example of how data
should be compared.
The chart that I provided from CDC compared Total Mortality to Total Mortality (All Deaths Involving COVID-19 vs All Deaths Involving Influenza) by age range for the same time periods under the same conditions. That is a valid comparison. You comparing the Mortality Rate (MR) for COVID-19 to the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for flu, not so much.
But, let's do what you and others would like.
Let's compare an exceptionally bad previous flu season to COVID-19 and let's compare deaths for the 0-49 year age population instead of seniors that are most at risk of dying from either flu
or COVID-19.
Robert Roaldi was correct when he stated "deaths from flu seemed to be about 30,000-35,000 over the years". CDC records flu data year-round and charts "flu seasons" from week 40 (about the beginning of October) thru week 39 (about the end of September) of the following year. Flu activity generally begins to increase in October
with the peak months being from December thru March which is why flu season data isn't generally charted by calendar year. If you look at the previous 10-years of
flu deaths from 2010 to 2020 they range from 12,000 to 52,000 annually with a total of 334,000 deaths over 10-years for an average 33,400 total deaths per season.
Let's take the worst flu season of the past decade which was 2017/2018 (52-week period from October 2017 thru September 2018)
with a recorded total of 52,000 deaths (51,646 to be precise) and let's look at the
deaths by age group. Flu Deaths 2017/2018 - Ages: 0-4 = 110 / 5-17 = 416 / 18-49 = 2,255 (
Total Flu Deaths 2017/2018 - Ages: 0-49 = 2,781). As I've mentioned, it should be considered that the mitigation efforts were not in place, during this time period, which we have seen over the past two years during which COVID-19 has existed. So we will be comparing flu
without recent mitigation efforts to COVID-19
with recent mitigation efforts.
Now let's look at COVID-19 deaths. CDC hasn't charted COVID-19 death by "52-week seasons", but we do have 52-week calendar year totals. COVID-19 Deaths 2020 - Ages: 0-17 = 198 / 18-29 = 1,482 / 30-39 = 4,286 / 40-49 = 11,317 (
Total COVID-19 Deaths 2020 - Ages: 0-49 = 17,283). COVID-19 Deaths 2021 (As of 12/1/2021) - Ages: 0-17 = 432 / 18-29 = 3,136 / 30-39 = 9,352 / 40-49 = 21,851 (
Total COVID-19 Deaths 2021 (As of 12/1/2021) - Ages: 0-49 = 34,771).
For reference, Total COVID-19 Deaths for All Ages: 2020 = 385,338 / 2021 (As of 12/1/2021) = 394,064. Total Deaths Involving Flu for All Ages: 2020 = 8,786 / 2021 (As of 12/1/2021) = 676. Total Deaths Involving Flu - Ages 0-49: 2020 = 1,127 / 2021 (As of 12/1/2021) = 53.
Why have COVID-19 deaths more than doubled in the 0-49 year age range in 2021 compared to 2020? The best suspect, in my view, would be the emergence of the Delta variant in 2021 which became the dominant variant by mid-year. If you've seen or heard news reports that the Delta variant was not only more contagious, but also claiming younger victims;
you can see its affect above.
