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Author Topic: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine  (Read 107431 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2200 on: November 23, 2021, 12:50:44 pm »

Why is Africa doing so well with COvid where very few people are vaccinated?  One theory is that most people spend a lot of time outdoors. Others say it's the huge number of naturally-resistant young people making up their populations.  Maybe malaria infections have toughened the people.  It's fascinating and more research should be done. 

Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids COVID disaster
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/scientists-mystified-wary-africa-avoids-covid-disaster-81271647

Interesting observation! Could be that the virus dies quicker on the fresh air.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2201 on: November 23, 2021, 03:47:15 pm »

All the more reason why no one should look to you for sensible health advice.

Are you writing this based on your false notion I am not vaccinate even thought my post clearly implies I am?

Or are you writing this on your false notion that masks (besides KN95) and social distancing works (even though all studies are showing otherwise)? 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2202 on: November 23, 2021, 03:53:28 pm »

This statement is simply false. The non-scientific term for this is jumping to conclusions.

From a U.K. Study...

"Effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection."

https://www.medrxiv.org/Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK

From the University of Nebraska Medical Center...

If you've had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?
 
The data is clear: Natural immunity is not better. The COVID-19 vaccines create more effective and longer-lasting immunity than natural immunity from infection.

• More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies
• Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity
• Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective than natural immunity plus vaccination

The takeaway: Get vaccinated, even if you've had COVID-19. Vaccine immunity is stronger than natural immunity.

"Natural immunity can be spotty. Some people can react vigorously and get a great antibody response. Other people don't get such a great response," says infectious diseases expert Mark Rupp, MD. "Clearly, vaccine-induced immunity is more standardized and can be longer-lasting."

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/covid-19-studies-natural-immunity-versus-vaccination

The article linked above, from the University of Nebraska Medical Center, has much more information and includes links to additional information and studies that they cite within the article. There are many more studies and articles than the two that I've cited.

Online BS and ill-informed commentary fatigue is here.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1 

Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.

https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

The natural immune protection that develops after a SARS-CoV-2 infection offers considerably more of a shield against the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to a large Israeli study that some scientists wish came with a “Don’t try this at home” label.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-vaccine-natural-immunity-infection-israel-study-cdc-11632151556 

In “Covid Confusion at the CDC” (op-ed, Sept. 14), Dr. Marty Makary points out that public-health officials insist on vaccination for previously infected people. He disagrees with this policy, relying in large part on the evidence from a retrospective, observational Israeli study showing that “natural immunity was 27 times more effective than vaccinated ...

As you were saying. 

I think the problem for you, is that you live in a bubble and do not look at information that does not confirm priors. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2203 on: November 23, 2021, 03:59:07 pm »


That's just foolish.  I don't care what politicians say about it one way or another.  My degree and background is healthcare so I look at this solely as a medical issue.  Are the vaccines safe?  With closing in on 200M Americans now vaccinated, yes absolutely.  Do the vaccinations work?  Yes, and very well.  Chart below was released from my former employer and my wife's (clinical pharmacist) employer of 30 years.  As I said, it's foolish to take a chance with such a destructive disease because of something as meaningless as politics.





Kent in SD

It does not matter what you or I think, but what they (the anti-vaxxers) think. 

Do you really think that you can deal with people like this by looking at their issue from your point of view?  If so, good luck with that.  Not to mention, it is obvious you hold contempt for them. 

As a former teacher, I can tell you if you hold contempt for those whom you are trying to help and show it, they will fail just to spite you.  Sure, it makes no sense, but that is human nature. 

All of these mandates and shit-talk coming from the White House is only having the opposite effect of what they want.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2204 on: November 23, 2021, 04:00:39 pm »

Joe,
tell me it’s not you starring in that ‘Borat Subsequent Movie’ film.
You know, the part where he asks

‘What is more dangerous ? This virus or the Democrats ?
and you and your buddies answer
‘Democrats’

scrub to 1:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1F0CgjMbQ0

Very original Manoli. How long this take you to come up with?  Did you actually laugh when you did? 

Dont worry, my wife laughs at my bad jokes too. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2205 on: November 23, 2021, 04:26:26 pm »

Some statements are too asinine to merit a response.

    Years               Age Group    All Deaths Involving COVID-19    All Deaths Involving Influenza

2020/2021          0-17 Years                      605                                           189
2020/2021        18-29 Years                   4,460                                           149
2020/2021        30-39 Years                 13,196                                           325
2020/2021        40-49 Years                 32,230                                           511
2020/2021        50-64 Years               139,761                                         2,246
2020/2021        65-74 Years               173,365                                         2,051
2020/2021        75-84 Years               198,318                                         2,047
2020/2021       85 and Over                203,385                                        1,912

2020/2021      Total All Ages               765,320                                         9,430

Data from CDC as of 11/17/2021

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Wow, you think you're smart don't you.  Well let's break this down. 

First, you're posting the total deaths of Covid through the pandemic, while the flu deaths are only for this year.  Not a far comparison. 

Second, it is no secret that we have had a very mild flu season since the pandemic began, meaning that the flu numbers for last year and half are outliers.  In case you don't know, in statistics, an outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations.  In statistics, I can tell you that we typically ignore outliers since they are so far off they do not warrant to be taken seriously. 

Third, not to mention we have years of data on flu deaths, meaning it would be incompetent to look at only one year of data, even if it was not an outlier, in trying to illustrate the fatality rate. 

Fourth, and let's do some math, 0 through 49 deaths are 50,491, which is 6.6% percent of all of the deaths so far from Covid.  Out of the entire USA population of 0 to 49 year olds (about 211.6M), that is just 0.02385%, which is ... wait for it ... similar to the fatality rate of the flu for those under 45 of 0.02%.  Sure, not a perfect compaison since not everyone 0 to 49 have caught C-19, but all data is showing significantly more then half. 
« Last Edit: November 23, 2021, 04:42:08 pm by JoeKitchen »
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2206 on: November 23, 2021, 07:02:09 pm »

It seems the only people who do care that they are not vaccinated are far left wingers; all the more reason to not get vaxxed if it means pissing them off. 

All the more reason why no one should look to you for sensible health advice.

Are you writing this based on your false notion I am not vaccinate even thought my post clearly implies I am?

I wrote "All the more reason why no one should look to you for sensible health advice" based on your notion which I quoted—"It seems the only people who do care that they are not vaccinated are far left wingers; all the more reason to not get vaxxed if it means pissing them off."

If you or anyone else believes that "all the more reason" for making health decisions should take into consideration politics of any kind or "pissing them off", regardless of who that might be; I would consider that reason enough to advise that no one should look to you for sensible health advice.

My reply was a response to the notion that you expressed and was not based on any "notion" regarding your vaccination status or any assumed effectiveness of any public heath measures, but was based on your statement expressing your ludicrous notion alone.

Or are you writing this on your false notion that masks (besides KN95) and social distancing works (even though all studies are showing otherwise)?

You just can't seem to help yourself in assuming and asserting what "all studies" show. I have a nagging doubt that you have any idea what "all studies" show regarding any of the topics where you've made that assertion.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2207 on: November 23, 2021, 07:27:24 pm »

Or are you writing this on your false notion that masks (besides KN95) and social distancing works (even though all studies are showing otherwise)?

Social distancing definitely works. Just law of physics. The farther, the more effective.
Any study disputing this should be put really far away.
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Two23

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2208 on: November 23, 2021, 09:06:08 pm »

It does not matter what you or I think, but what they (the anti-vaxxers) think. 

Do you really think that you can deal with people like this by looking at their issue from your point of view?  If so, good luck with that.  Not to mention, it is obvious you hold contempt for them. 



I've actually had pretty good luck when dealing with them one on one.  I have a reputation as being a pretty honest guy.


Kent in SD
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2209 on: November 23, 2021, 09:40:59 pm »

Add to that all research comparing natural immunity to vaccine immunity is showing... natural is just oh so much better!

This statement is simply false. The non-scientific term for this is jumping to conclusions.

Another example of what I just observed and noted, you just can't seem to help yourself in assuming and asserting what is shown in "all studies" or "all research". I cited, quoted, and linked two references which demonstrated that your statement regarding what "all research comparing natural immunity to vaccine immunity" shows was NOT what "all research" shows and is therefore a false assertion.

Your response was to cite one paper from Israel and to provide three links from three different sources to that one single paper. It is the same paper from Israel that you mentioned earlier when you made the false assertion regarding "all research". That's four times, in total, that you've cited the same retrospective observational study from Israel. I hate to tell you this, but no matter how many times or how many different links you provide to one research paper; that one paper does NOT represent "all research" on the subject as I have already clearly shown.

Interestingly, you decided not to mention any of the limitations of that one retrospective observational study from Israel as discussed in your science.org link...

Like the small size of the comparison data in the study... "infections and other events analyzed for the comparisons were “small.” For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the same analysis was based on just 238 infections in the vaccinated population, less than 1.5% of the more than 16,000 people, versus 19 reinfections among a similar number of people who once had SARS-CoV-2."

Like the inherent weakness of a retrospective observational study which lacks testing compared to prospective studies... "As for the Israel medical records study, Topol and others point out several limitations, such as the inherent weakness of a retrospective analysis compared with a prospective study that regularly tests all participants as it tracks new infections, symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths going forward in time. “It will be important to see these findings replicated or refuted,” says Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at Emory University. She adds: “The biggest limitation in the study is that testing [for SARS-CoV-2 infection] is still a voluntary thing—it’s not part of the study design.” That means, she says, that comparisons could be confounded if, for example, previously infected people who developed mild symptoms were less likely to get tested than vaccinated people, perhaps because they think they are immune."

Or the limitations noted by the authors of the paper themselves... "Furthermore, the authors of the study acknowledged that it had several limitations. For one, they said that the analysis only assessed protection from the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine “and therefore does not address other vaccines or long-term protection following a third dose, of which the deployment is underway in Israel.” The authors also said that because they conducted an “observational real-world study,” where polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, screening for the coronavirus was not required, “we might be underestimating asymptomatic infections, as these individuals often do not get tested.” “Lastly,” the authors of the Israeli study wrote, “although we controlled for age, sex, and region of residence, our results might be affected by differences between the groups in terms of health behaviors (such as social distancing and mask wearing), a possible confounder that was not assessed.”

Or the concerns regarding the limitations of the study expressed by other scientists which I won't list, but for those actually interested in a more complete picture of this single study, I would recommend starting with the first 8-minutes of this video from the University of Nebraska Med Center which discusses the Israel study and potential statistical biases (which includes discussion of survivorship bias in statistical analyses, an interesting topic in itself) in addition to a review of this article.

You concluded your response with...

I think the problem for you, is that you live in a bubble and do not look at information that does not confirm priors. 

You're free to assume whatever you like, clearly. But citing one paper from Israel multiple times has yet to convince me of your assertion that "all research" is in agreement with that study—likely because I already know that's false and other studies have come to the opposite conclusion. I know that because I bothered to research your claim. I did that because there may be others gullible enough to believe that claim without checking first, like yourself.

I already showed in my earlier post that your claim regarding "all research comparing natural immunity to vaccine immunity" is not true. Why you keep repeatedly offering the same study as evidence of your claim that this single study is representative of the conclusions of "all research", as if repeating it would somehow make it more true, only you know.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2021, 01:25:02 am by TechTalk »
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TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2210 on: November 23, 2021, 09:56:56 pm »

Wow, you think you're smart don't you. 

Oh! I'm wounded! Just kidding... I'm not concerned with your personal impressions of anyone, including me. I do, however, generally at least try to separate things for which there is credible evidence from things which are purely speculative.

Well let's break this down. 

Well, let's...

First, you're posting the total deaths of Covid through the pandemic, while the flu deaths are only for this year. 

What on earth prompted you to assume that? The statistics from the CDC are all listed as being for the same time period of 2020/2021. Where did you come up with your conclusion?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2211 on: November 23, 2021, 09:59:39 pm »

Oh! I'm wounded! Just kidding... I'm not concerned with your personal impressions of anyone, including me. I do, however, generally at least try to separate things for which there is credible evidence from things which are purely speculative.

Well, let's...

What on earth prompted you to assume that? The statistics from the CDC are all listed as being for the same time period of 2020/2021. Where did you come up with your conclusion?

Joe's point was that 2020/2021 was an anomaly for the regular flu.  There was hardly any flu because of the shutdowns.  You have to use previous years of flu deaths to get a more realistic comparison to Covid deaths. 

TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2212 on: November 23, 2021, 10:58:56 pm »

Joe's point was that 2020/2021 was an anomaly for the regular flu.

Try reading AND comprehending. That is NOT what my reply was referencing nor what it addressed. He made a specific claim regarding the data that I provided from the CDC for 2020/2021 and made a false assertion about that specific data—that was the statement to which my reply was addressed. His statement was absolutely not true.

First, you're posting the total deaths of Covid through the pandemic, while the flu deaths are only for this year.  Not a far [fair] comparison. 

I provided a link to the data that I posted. I'll provide it again. All one need do, in order to quickly see that the assertion made is false, is to scroll to Table 1 on the page, click on monthly, and scroll thru the data. You'll find that the time periods being reported are identical for both "All Deaths Involving COVID-19" and "All Deaths Involving Influenza"; it includes data for exactly the same time periods for influenza and COVID-19, both of which cover the same period from January 2020 thru November 17, 2021. The flu deaths reported in the CDC data that I posted are NOT "only for this year" as was falsely claimed.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

In short, he jumped to a wrong conclusion by making an assumption and didn't bother to check whether what he stated was actually true or false. It's not an uncommon event with online forums—unfortunately!
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2213 on: November 24, 2021, 05:02:05 am »

You stated the same error.   2020/2021 period is an anomaly regarding flu deaths.   So you can't compare it Covid deaths for the same period. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2214 on: November 24, 2021, 07:10:53 am »

You stated the same error.   2020/2021 period is an anomaly regarding flu deaths.   So you can't compare it Covid deaths for the same period.

Maybe if people will continue wearing their masks and keep practicing the social distancing, they can eradicate the flu.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2215 on: November 24, 2021, 09:01:59 am »

You stated the same error.   2020/2021 period is an anomaly regarding flu deaths.   So you can't compare it Covid deaths for the same period.

As I recall, the avg number of deaths from flu seemed to be about 30,000-35,000 over the years. That chart showed just under 10,000 for the 2020/2021. So yes it's lower than an avg year but it is still dwarfed by the Covid numbers.

The 7-day moving avg of Covid deaths in the USA is still about a 1000 people per day. The worst flu year (outside of the influenza epidemic of 1918) was about 60,000, as I recall from previous discussions. So the worst flu year in history (outside of 1918) is roughly equivalent to the 2 months worth of Covid deaths at the current rate.

I simply cannot believe that at this late stage people are still trying to push the argument that this is just another flu. Let's hope that one day it will be, that seems to be the best long-term expectation, but we ain't there yet.

Why do we keep having this same conversation?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2216 on: November 24, 2021, 09:07:08 am »

...
Happened to flip through some channels at our hotel in Twin Falls Idaho. There were about a half dozen religious programs, most of which who were preaching anti-vax. On one, a Jewish Minister (?) and Doctor, obviously had a hate on for Anthony Faucci (sp?) and boldly stated the variants were a government induced method to control the citizens. Bizarre.
...

In almost any other context, except maybe marketing and sales, this kind of public pronouncements would be the kind of thing we used to expect from village idiots. In extreme cases, depending on topic, it might even lead to legal action. Not even marketing and sales pitches can get away with everything. But because the crap is coming from the mouths of self-declared religious spokespeople, we just accept it as ok for public air waves. It's simply amazing what those con artists can get away with. We don't put up with this elsewhere.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2217 on: November 24, 2021, 10:02:06 am »

In almost any other context, except maybe marketing and sales, this kind of public pronouncements would be the kind of thing we used to expect from village idiots. In extreme cases, depending on topic, it might even lead to legal action. Not even marketing and sales pitches can get away with everything. But because the crap is coming from the mouths of self-declared religious spokespeople, we just accept it as ok for public airwaves. It's simply amazing what those con artists can get away with. We don't put up with this elsewhere.
America has a long history of protecting speech. It's in our constitution. Unlike your claim, false advertising about a product is fraud.  You can sue a company and there are government sanctions as well.  Saying your camera is the best is not fraud as that's an opinion.  However, advertising that your camera has a 24mb sensor when it's only 16mb would be a fraud. 

You can be sued if you defame someone with libel or slander. Web forums and other social media count.  ;)  But for regular people giving their nonsense opinion, then you have the right to argue your nonsense opinion as much as I can argue my mine. 

How are people stopped or limited from saying things in Canada?

Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2218 on: November 24, 2021, 10:09:21 am »

Maybe if people will continue wearing their masks and keep practicing the social distancing, they can eradicate the flu.
The common cold too.  I haven't had one since Covid started nor has my wife.  We usually get a couple per year.  Being a hermit is definitely healthier.

TechTalk

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #2219 on: November 24, 2021, 12:53:57 pm »

Joe's point was that 2020/2021 was an anomaly for the regular flu.  There was hardly any flu because of the shutdowns.  You have to use previous years of flu deaths to get a more realistic comparison to Covid deaths. 
You stated the same error.   2020/2021 period is an anomaly regarding flu deaths.   So you can't compare it Covid deaths for the same period.

Joe's post, to which I replied, has four points which he numbered: First, Second, Third, Fourth. So far, I have replied only to his First point. Your responses to me are in regard to his Second to which I have not yet responded or written about. Given your inability to understand this fact, it is pointless to discuss this with you any further.
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