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Author Topic: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine  (Read 107132 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #780 on: April 06, 2021, 06:44:12 am »

... The simple fact is that lockdowns etc have reduced the spread of infection and kept the level of death from reaching the levels they could have got to if we'd just gone about our business as normal....

Not reduced... just postponed... that your and many other countries have to resort to 3rd or 4th lockdown is a proof of that. Just like masks. Since one is not effective, the current advice is two or even three. As demonstrated before, countries with stricter lockdowns do not have better (and often worse) results than those with more lax (or none). The same goes with strict vs. lax mask mandates.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #781 on: April 06, 2021, 06:45:37 am »

... there are plenty of reports of even young healthy people falling ill and dying due to the C19 virus...

Many young people also die crossing the street. It happens. The always crucial question is with what probability. Still extremely low.

jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #782 on: April 06, 2021, 07:10:23 am »

Not reduced... just postponed... that your and many other countries have to resort to 3rd or 4th lockdown is a proof of that. Just like masks. Since one is not effective, the current advice is two or even three. As demonstrated before, countries with stricter lockdowns do not have better (and often worse) results than those with more lax (or none). The same goes with strict vs. lax mask mandates.

Delayed until people can be protected by vaccines - which is the whole point.  Comparing countries is not sensible as there are too many differences between them; better idea to look at the rates of infection/hospitalisation/deaths in a given country compared with the dates of lockdown. The evidence is clear.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 07:35:30 am by jeremyrh »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #783 on: April 06, 2021, 07:59:42 am »


It's hard to compare the Spanish Flu in 1918-20 with Covid-19 in 2020. Spanish Flu killed between 20 million to 50 million lives. Covid-19 killed in the first 15 months 3 million people worldwide. It is highly probably that without the modern communications, lockdowns, testing facilities, skilled medical personnel and advanced medical equipment the number of Covid-19 infections and deaths would be substantially higher, quite possibly on the same level as Spanish Flu.


Although more dangerous for the seniors, there are plenty of reports of even young healthy people falling ill and dying due to the C19 virus. In Canada, we are going through the third wave which is more deadly, and spread also among younger individuals.
 
https://globalnews.ca/news/7731485/covid-variant-cases-young-canadians/

But modern society does reduce the danger of diseases. It doesn't matter why the current disease is not as dangerous whether innately compared to Spanish flu or because of better measures available today to deal with it.  So it is valuable to compare to other diseases in the past that had a larger effect to figure out if similar measures done then have to be done now.   

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #784 on: April 06, 2021, 08:00:23 am »

You are just proving my point, Jeremy, with that graph. Of course lockdowns work, albeit temporarily. That's why you need three of them (so far).

"Until vaccines" argument... it was "two weeks to flatten the curve" initially, now it is two years. And then variants occur. And vaccines needed every six months. And different vaccines for different mutations. And then, like the seasonal flu, some people will take it, others want. But the cost of the two years until vaccines is staggering, measured by many other parameters than just death from Covid: world hunger, premature child death, lack of education, depression, obesity, alcoholism, narcotics, denied medical services, and last, but not least, unemployment, ruined lives and careers, economic crash.

P.S. Forgot to add: the rise of fascism and communism.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 08:03:52 am by Slobodan Blagojevic »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #785 on: April 06, 2021, 08:06:23 am »

But modern society does reduce the danger of diseases. It doesn't matter why the current disease is not as dangerous whether innately compared to Spanish flu or because of better measures available today to deal with it.  So it is valuable to compare to other diseases in the past that had a larger effect to figure out if similar measures done then have to be done now.

My point was that Covid-19 is not necessarily more benign than Spanish flu.
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jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #786 on: April 06, 2021, 08:09:31 am »

You are just proving my point, Jeremy, with that graph. Of course lockdowns work, albeit temporarily. That's why you need three of them (so far).

"Until vaccines" argument... it was "two weeks to flatten the curve" initially, now it is two years. And then variants occur. And vaccines needed every six months. And different vaccines for different mutations. And then, like the seasonal flu, some people will take it, others want. But the cost of the two years until vaccines is staggering, measured by many other parameters than just death from Covid: world hunger, premature child death, lack of education, depression, obesity, alcoholism, narcotics, denied medical services, and last, but not least, unemployment, ruined lives and careers, economic crash.

P.S. Forgot to add: the rise of fascism and communism.

Your alternative seems to be to just let millions of people die, and to say it's no big deal cos millions of people died from some other diseases in the past. That makes no sense, and that's before you even try to figure out the economic cost of large amounts of your workforce being sick, and what's the impact on your health care system of the hospitals being permanently clogged up with Covid patients.

p.s. you seem to have dodged the fascism bullet in the US; we are not so lucky here.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 08:14:22 am by jeremyrh »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #787 on: April 06, 2021, 08:40:29 am »

My point was that Covid-19 is not necessarily more benign than Spanish flu.
I agree.  But I was only pointing out that modern advantages like vaccines allow us to adjust the measures we take in dealing with it.

James Clark

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #788 on: April 06, 2021, 08:56:17 am »

Your alternative seems to be to just let millions of people die, and to say it's no big deal cos millions of people died from some other diseases in the past. That makes no sense, and that's before you even try to figure out the economic cost of large amounts of your workforce being sick, and what's the impact on your health care system of the hospitals being permanently clogged up with Covid patients.

p.s. you seem to have dodged the fascism bullet in the US; we are not so lucky here.

Well, no.  Some states ask us to wear masks inside public places.  It’s a very short and exceedingly slippery slope from there to the gulags ;)
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LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #789 on: April 06, 2021, 09:25:02 am »

I agree.  But I was only pointing out that modern advantages like vaccines allow us to adjust the measures we take in dealing with it.

That was my other point.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #790 on: April 06, 2021, 09:32:40 am »

My point was that Covid-19 is not necessarily more benign than Spanish flu.

Are you suggesting that we actually have a cure for Covid?

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #791 on: April 06, 2021, 09:35:24 am »

Well, no.  Some states ask us to wear masks inside public places.  It’s a very short and exceedingly slippery slope from there to the gulags ;)

If Americans wouldn't have, what, 400-500 millions of guns in their hands, it indeed would be a short, slippery slope to AOC's re-education camps. Or jail, as in the UK.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #792 on: April 06, 2021, 09:50:42 am »

Your alternative seems to be to just let millions of people die...

You are again proving my point, which you are not disputing. Your retort is "we got to do something." Never mind that it isn't working, but it looks good as it seems the nanny state is doing something.

Millions of people die every year regardless. Very early in the pandemic it was clear that this virus is dangerous predominantly and overwhelmingly to the 65+ population. Retirees. Thus not the workforce.

The solution should have been "targeted protection," as advocated by the Great Barrington Declaration.

As for the "overwhelmed" medical facilities... I do not know about your country, but here, where I am now, Serbia, hospitals have been at full capacity ever since the dawn of time (i.e., socialized medicine). Way before I left, 28 years ago, patients were in corridors, or on long-waiting lists for major operations. My mother waited seven months for a triple bypass, three times being invited to come and then returned home, or invitation canceled. There seems to be the case everywhere with socialized medicine. Makeshift hospitals are relatively quick to build, many have been in the States and then dismantled, for the lack of patients. Military ships sent to NY to deal with non-covid patients returned unused soon thereafter. Serbia has built I think three specialized Covid hospitals, fourth under construction.

Chris Kern

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #793 on: April 06, 2021, 10:01:34 am »

Although more dangerous for the seniors, there are plenty of reports of even young healthy people falling ill and dying due to the C19 virus. In Canada, we are going through the third wave which is more deadly, and spread also among younger individuals.

We're experiencing a similar phenomenon in many parts of the United States, including here in the state of Maryland, where three-quarters of the residents 65 and older have received at least one dose of vaccine.  Individuals in their 20s and 30s increasingly are getting sick and requiring hospitalization, and some are dying.  This probably reflects the growing prevalence of the very aggressive B.1.1.7 mutation (the variant which was first identified in the U.K. and is now rapidly spreading worldwide), which is both significantly more infectious and substantially more lethal than earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2, and the tendency of young adults to ignore mask and physical distancing regulations.  The state government is now making vaccines available to everyone 16 and older—many other states are doing the same—in an attempt to prevent another massive wave of infection and avoid overwhelming the intensive-care capacity of the hospitals.  Unfortunately, it's unlikely enough people can be vaccinated in time to prevent that.

LesPalenik

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #794 on: April 06, 2021, 10:02:59 am »

Are you suggesting that we actually have a cure for Covid?

The global precautions including vaccines and advanced medical care during the last year saved hundreds of millions of lives.
Spanish flu was fought 100 years ago with by today's standards more primitive methods and on much smaller and uncoordinated level, and consequently the outcome was much worse.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #795 on: April 06, 2021, 10:17:15 am »

The global precautions including vaccines and advanced medical care during the last year saved hundreds of millions of lives.
Spanish flu was fought 100 years ago with by today's standards more primitive methods and on much smaller and uncoordinated level, and consequently the outcome was much worse.
Like when the cop shot the guy who refused to wear a mask. :)

jeremyrh

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #796 on: April 06, 2021, 10:18:09 am »

You are again proving my point, which you are not disputing. Your retort is "we got to do something." Never mind that it isn't working, but it looks good as it seems the nanny state is doing something.

Of course it's working - we have avoided millions of people dying and are a long way towards vaccination in many places.

Quote

Millions of people die every year regardless. Very early in the pandemic it was clear that this virus is dangerous predominantly and overwhelmingly to the 65+ population. Retirees. Thus not the workforce.

Not so. Most of the people dying were old, but young people also got very sick, and a lot are now strugglinhg with long term health issues that we don't yet understand fully.
Quote
The solution should have been "targeted protection," as advocated by the Great Barrington Declaration.
It's beyond naive to imagine you can achieve such a thing. In any case, I think even pensioners deserve to be allowed out one day. How else are we going to tempt them away from typing BS on their keyboards?
Quote
As for the "overwhelmed" medical facilities... I do not know about your country, but here, where I am now, Serbia, hospitals have been at full capacity ever since the dawn of time (i.e., socialized medicine). Way before I left, 28 years ago, patients were in corridors, or on long-waiting lists for major operations. My mother waited seven months for a triple bypass, three times being invited to come and then returned home, or invitation canceled. There seems to be the case everywhere with socialized medicine. Makeshift hospitals are relatively quick to build, many have been in the States and then dismantled, for the lack of patients. Military ships sent to NY to deal with non-covid patients returned unused soon thereafter. Serbia has built I think three specialized Covid hospitals, fourth under construction.

I have no idea about Serbia. Certainly Italy, which has an excellent health service, was overwhelmed in the first wave. Hospitals are quick to build - we built three huge ones here. They were never used because hospitals need staff, not just beds.

What is kind of ironic is that you seem happy to sacrifice millions of lives on the altar of ideological purity. Did someone mention "gulags"?
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #797 on: April 06, 2021, 10:48:45 am »

The global precautions including vaccines and advanced medical care during the last year saved hundreds of millions of lives.
Spanish flu was fought 100 years ago with by today's standards more primitive methods and on much smaller and uncoordinated level, and consequently the outcome was much worse.

Forget vaccines. We are talking about a cure. I know no one who was cured from Covid, thanks to a medication. Medication just mitigates the symptoms. It is always one's immune system.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #798 on: April 06, 2021, 10:52:04 am »

... but young people also got very sick, and a lot are now strugglinhg with long term health issues that we don't yet understand fully.

You are hiding behind weasel words "also." "some," "a lot" etc. These are media panic-porn headlines. The percentages are miniscule.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Promising New Coronavirus Vaccine
« Reply #799 on: April 06, 2021, 10:54:58 am »

...  Hospitals are quick to build - we built three huge ones here. They were never used because hospitals need staff, not just beds...

Covid patients do not need constant attention. Most of the time you just sleep. Doctor's visit once a day. Mostly to appear they can do something.
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