Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[TechTalk]

I don't read The New Republic, but I noticed that Alan linked to one of their articles in some rambling about Tesla—his other link was to an obviously unbiased blog post titled Hater’s Guide To Tesla. Anyway, out of curiosity I took a look at The New Republic and came across America’s Worst Right-Wingers: A TNR Readers’ Poll. There are twenty categories polled. I confess that picking just one person, from the multiple choices offered in various categories, was sometimes difficult. You can vote in the poll without being a subscriber. It was kind of fun to complete and the descriptions of each candidate interesting to read.

America’s Worst Right-Wingers: A TNR Readers’ Poll

From the Senate to Fox News to the Trump family, who represents the worst of the worst?

https://newrepublic.com/article/163203/americas-worst-right-wingers-tnr-readers-poll

[digitaldog]

When the economy collapses because of our huge debt and bubbles and printing, that's when you'll see the mobs wielding torches and pitchforks.

Like Trump insurrectionists on January 6th?
And:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/07/how-republicans-manage-be-both-anarchists-authoritarians/

[Alan Klein]

I don't read The New Republic, but I noticed that Alan linked to one of their articles in some rambling about Tesla—his other link was to an obviously unbiased blog post titled Hater’s Guide To Tesla. Anyway, out of curiosity I took a look at The New Republic and came across America’s Worst Right-Wingers: A TNR Readers’ Poll. There are twenty categories polled. I confess that picking just one person, from the multiple choices offered in various categories, was sometimes difficult. You can vote in the poll without being a subscriber. It was kind of fun to complete and the descriptions of each candidate interesting to read.

America’s Worst Right-Wingers: A TNR Readers’ Poll

From the Senate to Fox News to the Trump family, who represents the worst of the worst?

https://newrepublic.com/article/163203/americas-worst-right-wingers-tnr-readers-poll

Speaking of biased publications, The New Republic you now admire is a very left and liberal publication.  So their selection of "worst" people on the right has to be viewed in that light.  I would expect their polling to reflect that bias as well.
https://www.allsides.com/news-source/new-republic

[TechTalk]

The New Republic you now admire

Never any hesitation in jumping to conclusions or putting words into other peoples mouths with this one.

[Alan Klein]

Never any hesitation in jumping to conclusions or putting words into other peoples mouths with this one.

You're the one excited about their anti-conservative, anti-republican, "right-wing" poll.  Seems like you found a new source to support your beliefs.

[TechTalk]

Never any hesitation in jumping to conclusions or putting words into other peoples mouths with this one.

[digitaldog]

Never any hesitation in jumping to conclusions or putting words into other peoples mouths with this one.

Indeed; idiotic comments from the peanut hammer gallery. 😝

[JoeKitchen]

The problem with government interference in markets is that it creates malinvestments. 

On the subject of government investments, do you, Alan, believe in any interference within the market?  Although I am highly against federal involvement, do you think state involvement could be a good thing? 

I am always going back and forth with this, but recently came across something rather ... interesting.  My wife and I are looking at buying a property outside of Philadelphia, perhaps halfway between Philly and NYC, with a barn to convert into a shooting space.  My opinion is, well, I should go for broke, and get 10+ acres as well, plant some vines and convert part of the barn into a winery and meadery.  (Of course there is a shit load more involved that just saying it!)  The only problem, what vines to plant?  Well, we would probably end up in USDA zone 6, and most of the European varietals can not survive zone 6 or lower.  So I would need to rely on native or hybrid vines that can.  The only problem is most grapes make poor wine, and Europe has 3000+ years on us in cultivating great wine grapes, so most of the native grapes are just not up to par. 

Both Minnesota and New York have invested in grape research over the last few decades to produce hybrid varietals that can survive cold winters and produce great wines.  Although they are only slowly taking hold, it has produced a great boom for their wine economies, and in other northern states.  Not only that, NY charges a $1.05 royalty on their vines for out of state purchases, so their is a return on investment there, and it seems like NY has most of the good ones like Chardonel. 

Although I do believe most innovation is better suited in the private sector, long term agricultural innovation seems to be an exception where it is better suited at universities. 

I always think about the development of corn, which is not a naturally occurring plant.  It took decades of selective breeding and plantings to turn a wild grass into what we call corn.  I think this would be outside the realm of any business to do and would, instead, require a societal commitment to replicate. 

[Robert Roaldi]

When the economy collapses because of our huge debt and bubbles and printing, that's when you'll see the mobs wielding torches and pitchforks.

You've been predicting the collapse of the US economy or GM or pension funds or something or other since you started posting. How many times do these things have to NOT HAPPEN before you begin your doubt your own predictions. People traditionally make fun of weather forecasting but they do pretty well compared to you.

Gloom and doom can be fun bar talk after several drinks, but that's about as far as it goes.

[Robert Roaldi]

On the subject of government investments, do you, Alan, believe in any interference within the market?  Although I am highly against federal involvement, do you think state involvement could be a good thing? 

I am always going back and forth with this, but recently came across something rather ... interesting.  My wife and I are looking at buying a property outside of Philadelphia, perhaps halfway between Philly and NYC, with a barn to convert into a shooting space.  My opinion is, well, I should go for broke, and get 10+ acres as well, plant some vines and convert part of the barn into a winery and meadery.  (Of course there is a shit load more involved that just saying it!)  The only problem, what vines to plant?  Well, we would probably end up in USDA zone 6, and most of the European varietals can not survive zone 6 or lower.  So I would need to rely on native or hybrid vines that can.  The only problem is most grapes make poor wine, and Europe has 3000+ years on us in cultivating great wine grapes, so most of the native grapes are just not up to par. 

Both Minnesota and New York have invested in grape research over the last few decades to produce hybrid varietals that can survive cold winters and produce great wines.  Although they are only slowly taking hold, it has produced a great boom for their wine economies, and in other northern states.  Not only that, NY charges a $1.05 royalty on their vines for out of state purchases, so their is a return on investment there, and it seems like NY has most of the good ones like Chardonel. 

Although I do believe most innovation is better suited in the private sector, long term agricultural innovation seems to be an exception where it is better suited at universities. 

I always think about the development of corn, which is not a naturally occurring plant.  It took decades of selective breeding and plantings to turn a wild grass into what we call corn.  I think this would be outside the realm of any business to do and would, instead, require a societal commitment to replicate.

Isn't it generally true that long-term investment in research is never done by private enterprise. They tend to, quite understandably, only invest in things that contribute to profit in a fairly short time horizon. What private company would have funded 20-30 years of solid state physics research in the 1920s to 1940s, as all those Ph.D. candidates and post-docs researched ever more bizarre phenomenon that they could never explain to a layman? Same goes for just about realm of endeavour. This is just so self-evident to me that I am amazed that it's even a topic for conversation.

[JoeKitchen]

Isn't it generally true that long-term investment in research is never done by private enterprise. They tend to, quite understandably, only invest in things that contribute to profit in a fairly short time horizon. What private company would have funded 20-30 years of solid state physics research in the 1920s to 1940s, as all those Ph.D. candidates and post-docs researched ever more bizarre phenomenon that they could never explain to a layman? Same goes for just about realm of endeavour. This is just so self-evident to me that I am amazed that it's even a topic for conversation.

I think it depends on the profit margin, and whether or not you need to have one. 

My mind is more on plants, since I do a significant amount of gardening and not just single season vegetables.  To produce a new commercially viable apple would take 20 years at least, and probably another 20 years of scion and grafts before really getting it to market.  But what are you going to make off of selling apple trees?  Nothing close to the amount that it would be worth putting the time in if you need to make a profit.  This is where university research seems best suited for, along with avoiding people like me who will invariably ask, "... but how is this going to make money before I die?"

However this does not mean it needs public money supporting it; not all universities are publicly funded.  So private funding (more like donations) can produce these innovations as well so long as there is not an expectation that you will ever get a return personally from your donation, which by definition would be the case. 

Now with pharmaceuticals, your profit could very well be worth 40 years of research.  I dont see many other markets though that would support very long term research. 

[Robert Roaldi]

....
However this does not mean it needs public money supporting it; not all universities are publicly funded.  So private funding (more like donations) can produce these innovations as well so long as there is not an expectation that you will ever get a return personally from your donation, which by definition would be the case.  ...

It's probably useful to distinguish between private endowments and targeted corporate research. The former are more like public funding than the latter. After all, public funding just consists of money that was collected from private citizens for a public good. Maybe looking at it from the point of view of who benefits is a better way to make the distinction. If a rich guy funds an institution that furthers science, it's different than the research that only benefits one company's profits.

It's probably also worth distinguishing between "pure" and "applied" research.

I'm not making value judgements. Someone needs to apply knowledge so that it benefits people and I have nothing against them making a buck from it. But that's a pointless anodyne statement, it's the details that matter and every case is different.

[LesPalenik]

Isn't it generally true that long-term investment in research is never done by private enterprise. They tend to, quite understandably, only invest in things that contribute to profit in a fairly short time horizon. What private company would have funded 20-30 years of solid state physics research in the 1920s to 1940s, as all those Ph.D. candidates and post-docs researched ever more bizarre phenomenon that they could never explain to a layman? Same goes for just about realm of endeavour. This is just so self-evident to me that I am amazed that it's even a topic for conversation.

Another example of year-long research is the Apple Titan car project. First rumors about the Apple car appeared in 2015 and even now Apple is projecting bringing the car to the market only in 2024-2025.

[Alan Klein]

On the subject of government investments, do you, Alan, believe in any interference within the market?  Although I am highly against federal involvement, do you think state involvement could be a good thing? 

I am always going back and forth with this, but recently came across something rather ... interesting.  My wife and I are looking at buying a property outside of Philadelphia, perhaps halfway between Philly and NYC, with a barn to convert into a shooting space.  My opinion is, well, I should go for broke, and get 10+ acres as well, plant some vines and convert part of the barn into a winery and meadery.  (Of course there is a shit load more involved that just saying it!)  The only problem, what vines to plant?  Well, we would probably end up in USDA zone 6, and most of the European varietals can not survive zone 6 or lower.  So I would need to rely on native or hybrid vines that can.  The only problem is most grapes make poor wine, and Europe has 3000+ years on us in cultivating great wine grapes, so most of the native grapes are just not up to par. 

Both Minnesota and New York have invested in grape research over the last few decades to produce hybrid varietals that can survive cold winters and produce great wines.  Although they are only slowly taking hold, it has produced a great boom for their wine economies, and in other northern states.  Not only that, NY charges a $1.05 royalty on their vines for out of state purchases, so their is a return on investment there, and it seems like NY has most of the good ones like Chardonel. 

Although I do believe most innovation is better suited in the private sector, long term agricultural innovation seems to be an exception where it is better suited at universities. 

I always think about the development of corn, which is not a naturally occurring plant.  It took decades of selective breeding and plantings to turn a wild grass into what we call corn.  I think this would be outside the realm of any business to do and would, instead, require a societal commitment to replicate. 

I don't know anything about grapes and vines. But the best way for local and federal government can encourage business is to lower taxes and balance their budgets.  NY andNj taxes are way too high chasing new business away.   Good luck on whatever you decide.

[Alan Klein]

You've been predicting the collapse of the US economy or GM or pension funds or something or other since you started posting. How many times do these things have to NOT HAPPEN before you begin your doubt your own predictions. People traditionally make fun of weather forecasting but they do pretty well compared to you.

Gloom and doom can be fun bar talk after several drinks, but that's about as far as it goes.

I'l match my doom and gloom with any climatologist here on LuLa. 

[LesPalenik]

To be honest, I'm not all that interested in the economic trends in automotive manufacturing and don't follow them in any detail—or intend to start. I'm happy that others do though.

It was really just the very broad blanket statements that I saw that prompted any attention from me; in particular, the reference to the GM bailout and the assertion that they were "ready to go up belly up again". So, I'm pretty much done with the topic.

I follow automotive news and reviews regularly and find them more cheerful and uplifting than the politics.
As to my earlier "belly up" comment I don't expect that Ford and GM will get into that situation imminently, so in retrospect I should have said that both companies will encounter serious financial difficulties and will be forced to drastically downscale in the coming years due to their poor EV transition planning. Coincidentally, Ford announced just today that they will be ending all car production in India, taking a 2 billion loss and reducing their workforce by 4,000 people. They called it "restructuring".

[digitaldog]

I don't know anything about grapes and vines.

No surprise. Add that to a very long list.

I'l match my doom and gloom with any climatologist here on LuLa.

Or those here who actually listen to climatologists.

[JoeKitchen]

I don't know anything about grapes and vines. But the best way for local and federal government can encourage business is to lower taxes and balance their budgets.  NY andNj taxes are way too high chasing new business away.   Good luck on whatever you decide.

This completely ignores the point I was trying to make.  Even with no taxes, businesses just are not going to invest 20, 30, 40+ years into an innovation that has marginal profit returns.  You make no real money from developing new plant species, with the exception of working on plants that mature in one season.  Vines, trees, and other perennials have such a high genetic diversity that getting a new commercially viable varietal is 1/100,000, and they take years to fruit before you can test the new varietal to see if you could actually sell it. 

No way anyone who is expecting to make a profit would be willing to take this type of research on.  However, in the overall economy, creating new varietals can have a net positive on the economy.  It's just an example of something I dont see business doing well. 

With that being said, NJ has a lot of nice properties, but no way I'm paying those taxes.  Business tax in NJ is 5.85% net on the first $250K in revenue.  And they wonder why their cities are shit shows.  I pay less on profits in PA and Phill then business do on net in NJ. 

[JoeKitchen]

It's probably useful to distinguish between private endowments and targeted corporate research. The former are more like public funding than the latter. After all, public funding just consists of money that was collected from private citizens for a public good. Maybe looking at it from the point of view of who benefits is a better way to make the distinction. If a rich guy funds an institution that furthers science, it's different than the research that only benefits one company's profits.

It's probably also worth distinguishing between "pure" and "applied" research.

I'm not making value judgements. Someone needs to apply knowledge so that it benefits people and I have nothing against them making a buck from it. But that's a pointless anodyne statement, it's the details that matter and every case is different.

Makes me think of one of my math professors in school explaining the difference between a mathematician and engineer.  Mathematician are after shaping and carving beautiful works of art to look at, and engineers come along only to slap a clock right in the center, trying to make it useful. 

But anyway, yes, private endowments vs. targeted corporate research is an important distinction. 

[TechTalk]

No surprise. Add that to a very long list.Or those here who actually listen to climatologists.

...or economists; or scientists; or all the other -ists that have deep knowledge in a particular field. It's hard to hear them when you have a short tape loop continually running in your mind which you believe provides easy answers to difficult questions.