Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Robert Roaldi]

It's always risky giving some people power https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/trump-appointee-demanded-herd-immunity-strategy-446408.

"Herd immunity" by government design, far out. If they had gone ahead with that idea, would it have been illegal to wear a mask? Would it have been illegal to stand 6 feet apart? 

Reminds me of when the CIA put hallucinogens into people without their consent. Or when they gave black men syphilis.

The Peter Principle is still in effect.

[LesPalenik]

Covid is aggravating that situation.  I was reading yesterday that restaurants only cause about 1 1/2% of the spread while 73% occurs at home.  Yet, we're shutting down and destroying millions of jobs and businesses that will never recover.  The money being printed, and it's just as bad in Europe as the US, is going to the well connected and people who hold assets.  Most everyone else is just getting poorer.  The stock market's doing great.  But I think that's a bubble and illusion.  I hope I'm wrong. But I think this is going to be worse than in 2008.

If 73% of the infections occur at home, and only 1 1/2% in the restaurants, that means that 1 or 2 persons who went to a bar or a restaurant and picked up the virus there, came home to infect directly or indirectly 73 other people in their family or a circle of friends.

[jeremyrh]

Just to reassure our American friends that greed and stupidity are not limited to the USA

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html

[faberryman]

If 73% of the infections occur at home, and only 1 1/2% in the restaurants, that means that 1 or 2 persons who went to a bar or a restaurant and picked up the virus there, came home to infect directly or indirectly 73 other people in their family or a circle of friends.

Presumably there are places people catch COVID other than bars and restaurants and home. Sounds like 27% (100-73) catch it outside the home, so is that one person catches it outside the home and gives it to three people inside the home? Still seems high. Of course there are a bunch of people that are positive but asymptomatic and never get tested. Maybe all the asymptomatic people caught it outside the home, but aren't included in the outside the home statistic.

Alan and Joe cite these statistics without reference to their source so we can’t check them. As I mentioned before, we do not contact trace so I don’t know how anybody knows where people catch COVID. Let’s say mom gets sick and tests positive. So dad and son get tested and they are positive too but asymptomatic. Who gave it to whom? Did anyone catch it at home? Maybe mom caught it at the grocery store, dad caught it at work, and son caught it at school. If people are out and about, no telling where they caught it. Maybe the cat dragged it in. Now there's an idea: masks for cats.

So I'd give those statistics a lukewarm maybe, but probably not. It's not like I am going to rely on them, and then spend as much time as possible in restaurants and bars and not go home to avoid catching it. Somebody's got to take out the trash.

[faberryman]

So if Joe is still out there, I was thinking that instead of going through this elaborate song and dance of rationalizing why you are going to live your life from now on, wouldn't it just be easier to convince yourself that you caught COVID from one of your golfing buddies but were asymptomatic, and now you can't catch it or give it to anyone else? I mean it could be true. You have been acting recklessly for months and a lot of people are asymptomatic, so why not? The only reason I can think of why not is that it takes all the rugged individualism out of your persona. You can hardly be a hero if you are just part of the herd. Something to think about anyway. Moo.

Well, the old gears keep turning even if I want them to stop, and another idea popped into my head. I remember one reason you gave for living your life from now on was that you have come to grips with your own mortality. I guess everyone does sooner or later, so I am not giving you extra credit for your epiphany. What I was wondering is whether your wife has also come to grips with her own mortality? Maybe you have come to grips with both your mortality and her mortality, but she is still working on hers? Seems like you might want to give her some more time to think about it. Say a month or so. Maybe you could recycle an advent calendar to keep track of it in a fun kind of way. I am just saying this because I have a great deal of experience in this area, and over the years I have discovered that I have no idea what my wife is thinking. I assume she'd like me to stick around for a while because she hasn't been egging me on not to wear a mask, but I still can't explain why the brake cable on my car was cut. Now that I think about it, I remember telling you guys that a while back I fell off a ladder and now have a titanium plate and nine screws in my arm. When it warms up, I am going to take a closer look at that ladder. The virus may be the least of my worries.

[JoeKitchen]

So if Joe is still out there, I was thinking that instead of going through this elaborate song and dance of rationalizing why you are going to live your life from now on, wouldn't it just be easier to convince yourself that you caught COVID from one of your golfing buddies but were asymptomatic, and now you can't catch it or give it to anyone else? I mean it could be true. You have been acting recklessly for months and a lot of people are asymptomatic, so why not? The only reason I can think of why not is that it takes all the rugged individualism out of your persona. You can hardly be a hero if you are just part of the herd. Something to think about anyway. Moo.

Well, the old gears keep turning even if I want them to stop, and another idea popped into my head. I remember one reason you gave for living your life from now on was that you have come to grips with your own mortality. I guess everyone one does sooner or later, so I am not giving you extra credit for your epiphany. What I was wondering is whether your wife has also come to grips with her own mortality? Maybe you have come to grips with both your mortality and her mortality, but she is still working on hers? Seems like you might want to give her some time to work though it. Say a month or so. I am just saying this because I have a great deal of experience in this area, and over the years I have discovered that I have no idea what my wife is thinking. I assume she'd like me to stick around for a while because she hasn't been egging me on not to wear a mask, but I still can't explain why the brake cable on my car was cut. Now that I think about it, I remember telling you guys that a while back I fell off a ladder and now have a titanium plate and nine screws in my arm. When it warms up, I am going to take a closer look at that ladder. The virus may be the least of my worries.

Actually I am pretty sure I caught it already, and have always acted under the impression that I would regardless.  That's the difference between us and the left pushing the lockdowns.  It is not that we dont think we will catch it, but that we will surely catch it no matter what. 

But anyway, I was very sick this past January, in bed for two weeks, my left eye ball turned red and only just now got back to normal.  My wife and I do a lot of work in NYC, so maybe we caught it there; she was sick too.  Still, a walk in the park compared to when I caught Mono at 28, was misdiagnosed as Strep, given amoxicillin that caused me to develop a Scarlet Fever like rash (including in my throat) and symptoms, and caused me to lose 30 pounds while sleeping 20+ hours a day.  Looking back, I probably should have been in the hospital for that. 

I also caught the swine flu, bronchitis (developing a hernia from coughing so much), have broken my leg, arm, hand, tail bone (all separately), received my fair share of MRIs wit contrast due to mountain biking accidents, and have had so many surgeries that the fear/apprehension many have from going under the knife is completely foreign to me.   So perhaps you're right, maybe I am reckless. 

[digitaldog]

Just to reassure our American friends that greed and stupidity are not limited to the USA

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html

This is when Slobodan would pipe in about per capatia 

[faberryman]

Actually I am pretty sure I caught it already, and have always acted under the impression that I would regardless.  That's the difference between us and the left pushing the lockdowns.  It is not that we dont think we will catch it, but that we will surely catch it no matter what. 

But anyway, I was very sick this past January, in bed for two weeks, my left eye ball turned red and only just now got back to normal.  My wife and I do a lot of work in NYC, so maybe we caught it there; she was sick too.  Still, a walk in the park compared to when I caught Mono at 28, was misdiagnosed as Strep, given amoxicillin that caused me to develop a Scarlet Fever like rash (including in my throat) and symptoms, and caused me to lose 30 pounds while sleeping 20+ hours a day.  Looking back, I probably should have been in the hospital for that. 

I also caught the swine flu, bronchitis (developing a hernia from coughing so much), have broken my leg, arm, hand, tail bone (all separately), received my fair share of MRIs wit contrast due to mountain biking accidents, and have had so many surgeries that the fear/apprehension many have from going under the knife is completely foreign to me.   So perhaps you're right, maybe I am reckless.

Well, I guess we could play dueling accidents and infirmities, but I am embarrassed about some of mine, so I'll just say you win.

By the way, I looked up the loft of my irons, and think I'll have them committed to memory here shortly. So now instead going by distance, I'll go by loft. Say I am looking over my approach shot, and instead of saying it's 180 yards so I'll use my 5 iron, I'll say it's 180 yards so I'll use my club with a 28 degree loft. I can see how that would help you lower your handicap. Besides, that will make it easier to pretend I am Bryson Chambeau.

[Alan Klein]

Joe, you must be confusing with someone else, I don't own any golf clubs, I couldn't recognize them from a hockey stick.  But I know my canoe paddles - beavertail, ottertail, teardrop and square tip.

Which ones do you use when?

[Alan Klein]

If 73% of the infections occur at home, and only 1 1/2% in the restaurants, that means that 1 or 2 persons who went to a bar or a restaurant and picked up the virus there, came home to infect directly or indirectly 73 other people in their family or a circle of friends.

They didn't spell out how the infections took place.  But you can't assume that people got infected going to restaurants and bars. People visit each other in their homes.  Families get together over holidays.  I had to bring my car into Ford for some bodywork.  I discussed things indoors with the service manager.  I got a second price at another shop and sat in a small room with three other people.  I haven't gotten a haircut for ten months.  So I'm OK there.  People go to doctors and food markets.  Most people I know don't hang out in bars and restaurants. 

The point of the post was to bring up that millions of people's livelihoods are being destroyed.  Since the government shut them down, should the government raise them up?  Would you contribute to restarting these businesses paying let's say another 5% higher taxes for the next 5 years?

[JoeKitchen]

By the way, I looked up the loft of my irons, and think I'll have them committed to memory here shortly. So now instead going by distance, I'll go by loft. Say I am looking over my approach shot, and instead of saying it's 180 yards so I'll use my 5 iron, I'll say it's 180 yards so I'll use my club with a 28 degree loft. I can see how that would help you lower your handicap. Besides, that will make it easier to pretend I am Bryson Chambeau.

That's the spirit! 

Trying to determine which iron to use without knowing the loft is like trying to make sense out of women's cloths.  I'm sorry, what the f#@% does a size 2 mean?  And if you insist on using arbitrary numbers then why are bras sold using actual measurements? 

[jeremyrh]

They didn't spell out how the infections took place.  But you can't assume that people got infected going to restaurants and bars.

No but in the UK there was a spike in infections when a lot of people were going to restaurants because the govt was subsidising the meals.

[jeremyrh]

the left pushing the lockdowns. 

The left? One of the main anti-lockdown advocates was a Swede so I'm not sure why you keep making this a left-right thing?

[JoeKitchen]

The left? One of the main anti-lockdown advocates was a Swede so I'm not sure why you keep making this a left-right thing?

Because in the USA, it is a left right thing.  That is how the battle lines here have fallen. 

[jeremyrh]

Because in the USA, it is a left right thing.  That is how the battle lines here have fallen.

A battle between people who want to be sick and people who don't?  How odd!!

[digitaldog]

Because in the USA, it is a left right thing.  That is how the battle lines here have fallen.

The battle should be against the virus; it doesn't infect based on ideology. Some of the strongest weapons are based on science and data.
Yesterday was the worst of the losing battle in terms of dead Americans and number of sick in hospitals.
This was scientifically predicted! Millions we're told to stay home by the CDC but traveled for Thanksgiving.
This result in the losing battle was predicted and stupid, selfish Americans spread the virus.
How do you think Christmas and New Years will pan out in the battle?

[Alan Klein]

A battle between people who want to be sick and people who don't?  How odd!!

A battle between people who don't want to get sick and people who want to survive economically.

[Alan Klein]

More bad jobs news: 885,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week

New York (CNN Business)The US job market continues to suffer, and Thursday brought more bad news. Another 885,000 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week -- an increase from the week prior and higher than the 800,000 claims that economists were expecting.

The latest figures, which are adjusted for seasonal factors and reported by the Labor Department, are particularly grim since last week's numbers were revised up to 862,000. And even before the revision, that week had been the highest level since mid-September.
This was the fourth time in the past five weeks that first-time claims increased from the prior week.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/17/economy/unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html

[JoeKitchen]

The battle should be against the virus; it doesn't infect based on ideology. Some of the strongest weapons are based on science and data.
Yesterday was the worst of the losing battle in terms of dead Americans and number of sick in hospitals.
This was scientifically predicted! Millions we're told to stay home by the CDC but traveled for Thanksgiving.
This result in the losing battle was predicted and stupid, selfish Americans spread the virus.
How do you think Christmas and New Years will pan out in the battle?

"A small knowledge of human nature will convince us, that, with far the greatest part of mankind, interest is the governing principle; and that, almost, every man is more or less, under its influence. Motives of public virtue may for a time, or in particular instances, actuate men to the observance of a conduct purely disinterested; but they are not of themselves sufficient to produce a persevering conformity to the refined dictates and obligations of social duty. Few men are capable of making a continual sacrifice of all views of private interest, or advantage, to the common good. It is in vain to exclaim against the depravity of human nature on this account—the fact is so, the experience of every age and nation has proved it, and we must, in a great measure, change the constitution of man, before we can make it otherwise. No institution, not built on the presumptive truth of these maxims, can succeed." From George Washington to John Hancock, June 8th, 1778

As has always been and as will always be, people, everyone, will eventually act on their own interest.  Even the most virtuous of us will give into their own interests regardless of how unjust those interest may be given enough time.  Putting too much belief in the virtue of man, particularly assuming one's leaders are more virtuous then oneself, is doomed to failure. 

Although for a small period of time you may convince the majority to act in virtue against their interest and ignore human nature, it will not last for more then a fleeting moment. 

This is what you, and so many others, are expecting people to do with a virus that will almost certainly not kill them.  To work against their interest, and not just to some small degree, but to allow themselves to be financially ruined.  This will simply not happen.  Human nature does not change, no matter how hard you try. 

I am just being a realist, and feel it would be best to work within the confines of our nature instead of ignoring its existence or giving into the false belief we can change it. 

[digitaldog]

As has always been and as will always be, people, everyone, will eventually act on their own interest.

Some selfishly will. Others, and our history if filled with examples, serve others and our country. Take a side.

I am just being a realist, and feel it would be best to work within the confines of our nature instead of ignoring its existence or giving into the false belief we can change it.

"Nothing captures human interest more than human tragedy". - Dan Brown