Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[jeremyrh]

I have recovered from Covid, in self-isolation. I have two friends who ended up in a Covid hospital. We are ok.

In 2-3 days before falling ill, I attended a 500-people funeral, had long lunches with two friends (separately), one 90-year old, the other 68. Both friends are ok, never got infected by me. No one I know at the funeral, kissed, hugged, stood next to for an hour, etc., got anything worse than a cold or no symptoms. Families of the two friends that ended up in a hospital didn’t get anything worse than a cold, or no symptoms.

I'm not sure what your point is - are you suggesting that people aren't catching and dying from Covid?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I'm not sure what your point is - are you suggesting that people aren't catching and dying from Covid?

Two points: one is the answer to Digital Dog's  assumption that I have no personal experience with Covid. The other is, yes, people are catching (1-2%) and then dying from it (another 1-2%), giving you a combined chance of dying from Covid of 0.01-0.04%. Pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things. And certainly not justifying the panic porn media coverage, and, for the first time in history, crashing the whole economy. 

In the States, 7,500 people die every day from various causes. In Serbia, where we have 1,200 dead so far, 4,500 people die of lung cancer every year, some of secondary smoke. Yet no one here bans tobacco, not even smoking in restaurants and public spaces. But, gee, comes a variation of seasonal flu and we take the military to the streets.

[jeremyrh]

Two points: one is the answer to Digital Dog's  assumption that I have no personal experience with Covid. The other is, yes, people are catching (1-2%) and then dying from it (another 1-2%), giving you a combined chance of dying from Covid of 0.01-0.04%. Pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things. And certainly not justifying the panic porn media coverage, and, for the first time in history, crashing the whole economy. 

In the States, 7,500 people die every day from various causes. In Serbia, where we have 1,200 dead so far, 4,500 people die of lung cancer every year, some of secondary smoke. Yet no one here bans tobacco, not even smoking in restaurants and public spaces. But, gee, comes a variation of seasonal flu and we take the military to the streets.

The US death rate is about .05% at present, which corresponds to about 1000 per day, so the number of excess deaths is significant.  And note that these figures are AFTER lockdown etc.  If not for the measures taken, what do you suppose the death rate would be?

Looking at these charts Serbia is not looking too healthy right now either ...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/serbia/

[kers]

Two points: one is the answer to Digital Dog's  assumption that I have no personal experience with Covid. The other is, yes, people are catching (1-2%) and then dying from it (another 1-2%), giving you a combined chance of dying from Covid of 0.01-0.04%. Pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things. And certainly not justifying the panic porn media coverage, and, for the first time in history, crashing the whole economy. 

In the States, 7,500 people die every day from various causes. In Serbia, where we have 1,200 dead so far, 4,500 people die of lung cancer every year, some of secondary smoke. Yet no one here bans tobacco, not even smoking in restaurants and public spaces. But, gee, comes a variation of seasonal flu and we take the military to the streets.

To extrapolate your personal experience to the whole world / US is not the right thing to do.
You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.
Then the situation at the hospitals is dramatic and hectic; dead people end up in trucks...
A situation that can be avoided so it should be avoided.

[Robert Roaldi]

To extrapolate your personal experience to the whole world / US is not the right thing to do.
You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.
Then the situation at the hospitals is dramatic and hectic; dead people end up in trucks...
A situation that can be avoided so it should be avoided.

In the early days of a previous Covid-related thread on this forum in the March/April timeframe, there were posts to the effect that there are thousands of US deaths per year from x, y, and z causes, but that only 136 (or some minuscule number) had died from Covid up to that point. So, went the argument, why are we worrying about Covid? The number of deaths is now at over 250,000 in the US and we are still hearing the EXACT SAME argument and the year isn't over yet.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

1. To extrapolate your personal experience to the whole world / US is not the right thing to do.
You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.
2. Then the situation at the hospitals is dramatic and hectic; dead people end up in trucks...
3. A situation that can be avoided so it should be avoided.

1. It takes a special talent to twist what I wrote into "extrapolating my personal experience to the whole world/US." My personal experience description was in response to Digital Dog's claim that I do not have a personal experience with Covid. There was no extrapolation whatsoever.

2. People end up in refrigerator trucks because they have no family to claim the body. The consequence of homeless situation in the States and old people living alone.

3. CAN be avoided? How? Who did that? Don't quote miniature island countries, different cultures, different genetic base, etc. Look at the closest (in terms of development and culture, not kilometers) countries to the US: UK, France, Italy, Spain; they all have higher per capita overall death rates and/or last seven days per capita death rates. Why didn't they avoid it better?

[kers]

so you forgot to address this part:

You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... Looking at these charts Serbia is not looking too healthy right now either ...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/serbia/

Not sure why would bring it up, but Serbia is in the 55th place currently by the total death per capita - 183 vs. UK's 834 per million (5th place).

The reason is simple: slivovitz is much more efficient than the Oxford vaccine.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

so you forgot to address this part:

You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.

Thanks for reminding me that I have to address every inane comment someone makes. But here it goes:

7,500 is the daily figure - every day, for the whole year, and every year. The 2000 figure is the most recent figure, valid for the most recent period. If used the same metrics, that is, annual death numbers divided by 365, the result would be about 700 per day from covid on average.

So, it is not 7,500 vs. 2,000 - it is 7,500 vs. 700.

You are free to argue that 9-10% is still a large share.

[Alan Klein]

Your reply doesn't make any sense in relation to the post which you're quoting. Try reading it again. There was only one group being polled—Republican voters—regarding their opinion of Trump and their opinion of Republican members of Congress. You don't have to be a brain scientist to figure it out.

You're right. I read it wrong. They think more highly of Trump than Republican members of Congress.  I wonder if it's similar to Congressional Democrats and Biden? People don't think very highly of Congress or the media either.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

When masks are used, they should be used properly.

Who better to demonstrate the proper mask use than our President-elect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8svZ_FZ5tU

Steps:

1. Wear your mask under your nose, do not cover it
2. When the urge to cough comes, remove your mask
3. Cough in your hand (which will later touch million things)
4. Put your mask back on so that you can continue to virtue-signal

[Alan Klein]

A fairly lengthy, but well worth reading, article in Politico. It lays bare the fraud being perpetrated on the American public by Donald Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party as they work to undermine the foundations of democracy.

https://www.politico.com/2020/11/24/michigan-election-trump-voter-fraud-democracy

The Inside Story of Michigan’s Fake Voter Fraud Scandal

How a state that was never in doubt became a ‘national embarrassment’ and a symbol of the Republican Party’s fealty to Donald Trump.

Excerpt: "Trump was never going to succeed at altering the outcome in Michigan—or in any of the other contested states, or in the Electoral College itself. The 45th president’s time in office is drawing to a close. No amount of @realdonaldtrump tweets or wild-eyed allegations from his lawyers or unhinged segments on One America News can change that.

But what they can change—where he can ultimately succeed—is in convincing unprecedented numbers of Americans that their votes didn’t count. Last month, Gallup reported that the public’s confidence in our elections being accurate dropped 11 points since the 2018 midterms, which included a 34-point decrease among Republicans. That was before a daily deluge of dishonest allegations and out-of-context insinuations; before the conservative media’s wall-to-wall coverage of exotic conspiracy theories; before the GOP’s most influential figures winked and nodded at the president of the United States alleging the greatest fraud in U.S. history.

Trump failed to win Michigan. But he succeeded in convincing America that a loss, no matter how conclusive, may never again be conclusive enough."

Isn't insisting that Trump is not a legitimate president because he didn't win the popular vote even worse?  For four years, anti-Trumpers screamed the electoral system is a fraud, phoney, not fair, and makes Trump an illegitimate president.  I don't recall concern how those complaints undermine the American system of government and constitution? 

[jeremyrh]

Thanks for reminding me that I have to address every inane comment someone makes. But here it goes:

7,500 is the daily figure - every day, for the whole year, and every year. The 2000 figure is the most recent figure, valid for the most recent period. If used the same metrics, that is, annual death numbers divided by 365, the result would be about 700 per day from covid on average.

So, it is not 7,500 vs. 2,000 - it is 7,500 vs. 700.

You are free to argue that 9-10% is still a large share.

It is. And that's after distancing measures.

[jeremyrh]

Not sure why would bring it up, but Serbia is in the 55th place currently by the total death per capita - 183 vs. UK's 834 per million (5th place).

The reason is simple: slivovitz is much more efficient than the Oxford vaccine.

The reason to bring it up is simply to poiint out that Serbia is now in the grip of a 2nd wave, and that even though they fared well up to this point, they haven't found the miracle solution, slivovitz or other. 

As for the UK, we have the misfortune to be governed by an incomptent populist. You will be familiar with the way that goes.

[Alan Klein]

To extrapolate your personal experience to the whole world / US is not the right thing to do.
You say every day 7.500 people die in the US- the 2000 covid deaths every day is large share.
Then the situation at the hospitals is dramatic and hectic; dead people end up in trucks...
A situation that can be avoided so it should be avoided.

The dilemma is do you shut down the entire economy to avoid it?  That's the question and debate.  Do you shut down driving to avoid death on the highways?   Similar question.

[Alan Klein]

In the early days of a previous Covid-related thread on this forum in the March/April timeframe, there were posts to the effect that there are thousands of US deaths per year from x, y, and z causes, but that only 136 (or some minuscule number) had died from Covid up to that point. So, went the argument, why are we worrying about Covid? The number of deaths is now at over 250,000 in the US and we are still hearing the EXACT SAME argument and the year isn't over yet.

We all know that.  So what do you do? 

[Alan Klein]

1. It takes a special talent to twist what I wrote into "extrapolating my personal experience to the whole world/US." My personal experience description was in response to Digital Dog's claim that I do not have a personal experience with Covid. There was no extrapolation whatsoever.

2. People end up in refrigerator trucks because they have no family to claim the body. The consequence of homeless situation in the States and old people living alone.

3. CAN be avoided? How? Who did that? Don't quote miniature island countries, different cultures, different genetic base, etc. Look at the closest (in terms of development and culture, not kilometers) countries to the US: UK, France, Italy, Spain; they all have higher per capita overall death rates and/or last seven days per capita death rates. Why didn't they avoid it better?

There you go again with the damn facts.  Stop it. You're upsetting people. 

[jeremyrh]

The dilemma is do you shut down the entire economy to avoid it?  That's the question and debate.  Do you shut down driving to avoid death on the highways?   Similar question.

You still haven't got it - if you don't do something to slow or stop the disease, an exponentially increasing number of people will get it, of which a percentage will need hosptalisation and a percentage will die.  So there is no parallel with the highways, where a roughly constant number of people die per year.

[kers]

Thanks for reminding me that I have to address every inane comment someone makes. But here it goes:

7,500 is the daily figure - every day, for the whole year, and every year. The 2000 figure is the most recent figure, valid for the most recent period. If used the same metrics, that is, annual death numbers divided by 365, the result would be about 700 per day from covid on average.

So, it is not 7,500 vs. 2,000 - it is 7,500 vs. 700.

You are free to argue that 9-10% is still a large share.

Who is 'inane' ? i am just using your calculation...

13% because of a decease since march 2020... 8 months
So your calculation should be 265.000/(8x30)= 1100 deaths a day = 13% of all deaths.

Looking at the curve presented down below the current level is much higher and is rising.

In the Netherlands we have restricted our movements when the level was 10.000 infections a day.
Now we are at 6000 a day; not much better, but good enough to keep the hospitals running without stress.

[jeremyrh]

3. CAN be avoided? How? Who did that? Don't quote miniature island countries, different cultures, different genetic base, etc. Look at the closest (in terms of development and culture, not kilometers) countries to the US: UK, France, Italy, Spain; they all have higher per capita overall death rates and/or last seven days per capita death rates. Why didn't they avoid it better?

The numbers are similar. Italy and Spain had the bad luck to be first in line to confront the problem so they didn't know what to do in terms of isolation or treatment, UK has been a disaster, and the US has also had its own lockdowns and distancing advice.  All could have done better.